MBB: NESCAC

[names jaismith]

Although Tufts' losses have been respectable, 10 losses is 10 losses.  I see no chance for them to get into the NCAAs.  Midd needs another signature win, I think.  Trinity, while on a run, might need two.

[SpringSt7]

If you were doing worst case scenario for the NESCAC, it would be Albertus Magnus beating St. Joe's, Keene St. beating UMass Dartmouth, and Babson or Emerson beating WPI. Do any of those seem terribly unrealistic?

[toad22]

I hope I'm wrong, but it seems to me that for either Trinity or Middlebury to get to the NCAAs, they need to win the league title. I think the NESCAC will only get two teams in this year. If Middlebury beats Williams, and Amherst drops out of the regional rankings, perhaps Midd could get in ahead of Williams?

[nescac1]

Don't sleep on Salve beating Nichols. Very possible.  But AMC beating St Joe's on the road would really surprise me this year.  I think Newmac gets at least one Pool C either way, winner of Babson / Emerson is a lock i think. Babson likely in even with a loss, very solid resume. Midd needs to beat Williams and hope for few upsets, they are the ones who really need things to go chalk.  Williams and Wes are pretty clearly locked in already. 

Midd can't move ahead of Williams without winning the league.  I don't think Amherst will drop out and even if they did, Midd would have a lower win percentage and worse SOS with the teams basically even on quality wins. 

[Colby Hoops]

As noted earlier, Colby ends the year with a hard-fought loss against Wesleyan. Thought they had a chance late in the first half to actually take a substantial lead, but they missed a few wide open shots and Jordan James stuffed two fast breaks. Then Wesleyan found their stride midway through the second half and proved too much.

First, before a brief recap of the season, kudos to Matt Hanna on a great career. His shooting numbers weren't his best this year, but he was part of the freshman class that helped turn Colby around and he was a kid who worked his butt off and was a great leader for the Mules.

Looking back at this year, hard to not be a bit disappointed after the highs of the '19-20 season. Think there were thee main reasons why:

-Primarily, I think expectations were a bit too high coming in (I certainly led that charge). Losing Sam Jefferson, Alex Dorion, Dean Weiner, Wallace Tucker and Ty Williams left a much larger gap than anticipated -- hard to replace two of the best shooters in the country plus three other very solid players and not see a significant impact..

-Part of that optimism was that between some promising returners and a solid recruiting class Colby would be able to fill in around Tyson, Hanna and King with plenty of shooting and skill.  The returning guys didn't step up into bigger roles as much as might be expected and some of the freshman with reputations as shooters weren't quite ready either. Jack Lawson in particular was the one freshman who proved ready and has a very bright future, but it's extremely tough sledding as a freshman big in the Nescac going up against Sobel, Karren, Rogers, James, etc. He had a rough go during conference play, but I think he's poised for a big year next year.

-Thirdly, the big three of Tyson, King and Hanna all struggled at times. Tyson is such a good player -- very good shooter and unbelievable defender and rebounder, but he's never been able to create offense off the dribble or for others. Matt Hanna struggled with his shot at times, and couldn't score his runners and floaters at the hoop without the spacing of last year. He just doesn't quite have the footspeed or size to be able to create offense consistently against the best teams. Will King was the guy that we thought would take off this year after an unbelievable run toward the end of the 19-20 season. Unfortunately, he struggled with injury and missed quite a few games. He also just wasn't as consistently aggressive as a scorer as he needed to be given the lack of other options for Colby. The first half against Wesleyan was the best he looked all year, so hopefully he can take on a more aggressive scoring role next year. He remains an insanely good passer.

Despite the somewhat tough year, I think there's reason for optimism. Hanna is the only player who doesn't have remaining eligibility and the injuries late in the season did offer some promising play from players like Kyle Butler and Cooper Wirkala. Lucas Green had a poor season statistically, but he shows plenty of flashes and combines good size and athleticism with a nice feel for the game as a 1 or a 2. Lawson I think will make a big jump -- his jump shooting looks a lot better than the percentages and he has a really nice ability to drive closeouts from bigger players. David Basich missed the second half of the season and I don't think I saw him on the bench late in the season. Hopefully he returns as he is an another guy who showed some real promise early in the season.

Kudos to the team for good fight in the last month or so of the season, they were in a lot of games well into the second half even without King and Tyson for a few of them.

[Old Guy]

I hope I'm wrong, but it seems to me that for either Trinity or Middlebury to get to the NCAAs, they need to win the league title. I think the NESCAC will only get two teams in this year. If Middlebury beats Williams, and Amherst drops out of the regional rankings, perhaps Midd could get in ahead of Williams?

Is there no chance whatever that NESCAC would get two at-large bids? If form holds and Williams and Wes play in the NESCAC finals, Midd is next in line with a better overall and NESCAC record than Trinity (and a win over the Bantams). I don't study the region as closely as many of you. No shot?

[toad22]

I hope I'm wrong, but it seems to me that for either Trinity or Middlebury to get to the NCAAs, they need to win the league title. I think the NESCAC will only get two teams in this year. If Middlebury beats Williams, and Amherst drops out of the regional rankings, perhaps Midd could get in ahead of Williams?

Is there no chance whatever that NESCAC would get two at-large bids? If form holds and Williams and Wes play in the NESCAC finals, Midd is next in line with a better overall and NESCAC record than Trinity (and a win over the Bantams). I don't study the region as closely as many of you. No shot?

If you believe the prognosticators, particularly Drew Pasteur, the chances of Middlebury making it are low. There is still a chance, but maybe not a good one. If Middlebury beats Williams, Pasteur says that Middlebuy's chances of getting in rises to 25% from 8%. This is a judgement from people who study this stuff, not me, who knows next to nothing about anybody but Williams.

[nescac1]

Regional rankings out.  First four as expected, but Tufts above Trinity is a mild surprise (is Ryan Scott on the ranking committee???) especially after Trinity just beat them at Tufts, and Trinity has been red-hot.  I guess Tufts gained a lot of currency with the wins over Williams and Midd.  In all events, what this means is that Trinity needs to win NESCAC to have a shot at playing in the tourney.  I still think the Williams game is likely do-or-die for Midd ... a win and they are likely in (especially if they play Wesleyan in the final, which would really help SOS), a loss, I think they would need there to be almost no bid thieves.  Wesleyan and Williams are in regardless. 

https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2022/02/men-regional-rankings-second

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Regional rankings out.  First four as expected, but Tufts above Trinity is a mild surprise (is Ryan Scott on the ranking committee???) especially after Trinity just beat them at Tufts, and Trinity has been red-hot.  I guess Tufts gained a lot of currency with the wins over Williams and Midd.  In all events, what this means is that Trinity needs to win NESCAC to have a shot at playing in the tourney.  I still think the Williams game is likely do-or-die for Midd ... a win and they are likely in (especially if they play Wesleyan in the final, which would really help SOS), a loss, I think they would need there to be almost no bid thieves.  Wesleyan and Williams are in regardless. 

https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2022/02/men-regional-rankings-second

Right now, it does come down to regionally ranked wins.  Tufts has Amherst, Trinity, Wesleyan, and Williams vs just Tufts and Amherst for Trinity.  I suspect, though, beating Wesleyan would go a long way towards reversing that decision, since Wesleyan would up their winning percentage, SOS, and regionally ranked wins.  It would certainly put them in better shape were they to lose the final.  It's definitely a must win for them the next game out, though.

[maineman]

With the new Regional Rankings out and Midd moved to fourth, a win against Williams would be a big shot in the arm.  Should Midd lose and stay in fourth place regionally, then my totally unscientific analysis has roughly 33 teams nationally competing for the 20 Pool C bids available to the tournament.  That would make it an uphill, but not totally out of the question battle for Midd to secure one.

[toad22]

I hope I'm wrong, but it seems to me that for either Trinity or Middlebury to get to the NCAAs, they need to win the league title. I think the NESCAC will only get two teams in this year. If Middlebury beats Williams, and Amherst drops out of the regional rankings, perhaps Midd could get in ahead of Williams?

Is there no chance whatever that NESCAC would get two at-large bids? If form holds and Williams and Wes play in the NESCAC finals, Midd is next in line with a better overall and NESCAC record than Trinity (and a win over the Bantams). I don't study the region as closely as many of you. No shot?

Since I upset Old Guy by expressing doubt about Middlebury's chances of getting a pool C bid, I need to report that Midd's chances are improving a lot in Drew Pasteur's work. The odds are up to a 47% chance of getting a bid. If they get to the finals the chance is 88%, and a loss in the semis produces a 32% chance of a bid. As data comes in, I guess the odds change.

[nescac1]

I still think, most likely, Midd is in with a win and out with loss.  The biggest hole on Midd's resume is just three wins vs. ranked opponents (AMC, Trinity and Amherst), all of whom are towards the bottom of the regional rankings.  A win over Williams would be huge for that reason.  The SOS is also a bit marginal but if they added (most likely) Wesleyan in addition to Williams, that would be a nice boost there as well.  I think they are a near-lock with a win over Williams, barring just a huge number of bid thieves. The good news for Midd is that so far, no Pool C team ahead of them has been upset in a league tourney.   But it's early yet ...

[SpringSt7]

With conference championship weekend looming, here is my best crack at awards.

POY: Peek
COY: Reilly
ROY: Stevens
DPOY: Osarenren

1st Team: Peek, Karren, Sobel, Thoerner, Jorden
2nd Team: Stevens, Osher, Day, James, Prowitt-Smith

1st Team Defense: Osarenren, Sobel, James, Jones, Robinson

1st Team Rookie: Stevens, Johnson, Porter, Schainfield, Dorion
2nd Team Rookie: Roughley, Primer, McEachern, McGowan, Vance

   Really hard year for awards. You have 3 of the top 5 scorers in the league on one team, in a year where there is a clear cut top tier of teams. In most years, there is room for a Baxter, a Flynn, a Simonds, etc. But this year it just felt like there were 3 teams that were clearly a cut above the rest for the majority of the team, and as such are represented with 7 of the 10 spots. I think Peek has distanced himself enough from Karren and Sobel (who both have outstanding supporting casts that unfortunately hurt their cases as well) that barring any sort of fireworks, he already has the award locked up.
    My first team is pretty set in stone but I think if Middlebury or Williams wins the league, Stevens or Cole Prowitt-Smith could knock Thoerner down to 2nd team if they play well enough. As for coach of the year, I hate that this is always how it goes but I think whoever wins this weekend takes it---so many really good coaching jobs this year. Easy to forget that Tufts and Amherst were the consensus T2 going into the season with how well Williams and Wesleyan have played this year.

[nescac1]

The awards look pretty good overall.  I agree that COY has to go to whomever of these four teams wins the NESCAC title.  POY is I think Peek (most likely) or Sobel unless Karren has an absolutely MASSIVE weekend.  ROY, Stevens, again, unless Johnson has an absolutely massive weekend to maybe force a split award, both have been so so good.  DPOY, Osarenren is worthy but will lack of team success hurt him?  Sobel has the splashy block numbers.  A dark horse could be Jovan Jones.  He shut down Stevens and Peek in the regular season.  It would be pretty surprising if he could do so again in the NESCAC tourney, but if he does, that certainly at least warrants consideration. 

In terms of player awards, I'd swap Grant Robinson in for Day, I think Robinson clearly had the better year especially in league play.  Day just struggled to much to hit 3's which is his bread and butter.  Otherwise, the awards look pretty good.  I don't like Thoerner as a first-teamer but really can't think of anyone else more worthy this year.  Your all-defense team is very solid, as are your rookie teams except I'd swap McEachern for the Jack Lawson.   

On another note, the winner of NESCAC battles between Williams and Middlebury have usually gone to pretty good things (sometimes the loser, too!).

2004: Williams beats Midd in first round, wins NESCAC title and loses in national title game
2008: Midd beats Williams in first round, earns first (I think?) NCAA bid
2010: Williams beats Midd in NESCAC title game, loses in national title game
2011: Midd beats Williams in NESCAC title game, goes on to its only Final Four
2013: Williams beats Midd in NECAC semis, loses in Elite 8
2014: Williams beats Midd in NESCAC semis, loses in national title game
2017: Midd beats Williams in NESCAC finals, loses in Elite 8 (to Williams, who lost in the final four)
2022: ?

[Painter66]

These awards look very reasonable, but my biased view is that David Brennan deserves to be among the 10 rookies. He has averaged 8 points and 9 rebounds a game, and is one of Middlebury's most important players. He is also a very tough kid who gets every loose ball. He has carried a very heavy load for a first year guy.