MBB: NESCAC

[SpringSt7]

On the rookie note, I tried to balance some sort of gap year vs. non gap year in my evaluations (couldn't remember who had taken a year off and who hadn't) and I didn't do a very good job. Always hard to do rookies when some get way more opportunities than others on both winning and losing teams. Regardless, it's a really deep crop of first years spread all over the league.

[names jaismith]

Here's my (partial) list
POY Peek
COY Sweeney  (No one took his team farther during the season - 2 seniors were role players, no fifth year guys, no juniors, no one else who had ever played a full college season, had lost 35 league games in a row prior to this year, beat both Amherst and Trinity)
ROY (Tie) Johnson/Stevens
DPOY Osarenren

Ist Team  Peek/Karren/Rogers/Thoerner/Jordan
2nd Team Day/Osher/Sobel/James/Prowitt-Smith

Rookie teams just too tough for me, especially since 2020-21 was not a full season in any regard, this year's "sophomores" were for all purposes freshmen when it came to NESCAC league play, thus almost too many to choose from

[nescac1]

Wow Sobel on second team, that's pretty rough.  To me he had a MUCH bigger impact than Rogers in the games he did play, and he also played a lot more games, to boot.  Two Tufts guys on the first team seems like a bit of a stretch as well. 

Maybe someone can explain the love for Garrett Day to me.  He was awesome as a junior, no doubt, but as a senior slumped to 12 ppg on 30 percent (!!) overall shooting in league play.  He doesn't get many assists or rebound a ton, and is an average defender.  And his team had a pretty down year overall.  I certainly don't see him as a more valuable player than Grant Robinson, who scored with slightly better efficiency (albeit still not great), is a better defender, and was much more of a creator for his teammates.  How could he possibly be above Sam Stevens, who is far better in every statistical category? 

Love the job Sweeney did, but Conn still lost to Bowdoin in the play-in game.  There are just too many great coaching jobs to choose from, from teams that also made massive leaps forward.  It's a lot harder to go from mediocre to elite than it is to go from terrible to just a bit below average in the league.  Give him another year or two, he'll get his turn! 

[SpringSt7]

The Day love for me was that it was really a toss up between him and Robinson and I went with Day because A. He played more games and B. When I watched Amherst play I felt like he was still their go to guy in key moments, if only by a hair. And I can't get that Wesleyan game out of my head!

If they went Robinson over Day I certainly wouldn't call the league office to complain.

[Painter66]

I just thought that Stevens had a better year, by a lot, than either Day or Robinson. Both of the had great careers, but they did not mesh or really produce on a consistent basis this year.

[SpringSt7]

Let's play it again: more likely upset tomorrow?

[Greek Tragedy]

Middlebury is seeded higher than Williams, but would it be much of an upset since Williams smoked Middlebury during the year and Williams is regionally ranked ahead of Middlebury in the latest rankings? Middlebury needs the win more than Williams when it comes to Pool C consideration, IMO.

[SpringSt7]

Just so everyone is on the same page I consider Williams the favorite as I would imagine most if not all do. I think Trinity is more likely to beat Wesleyan just because of recent form but I don't think they are far ahead of Middlebury in that regard. Usually when you get to this weekend you have 4 good teams that are playing well and that's certainly the case right now.

[nescac1]

No bid thieves so far is good news for Midd.  Midd seems like a lock for Pool C with a win now and with a loss are on outside looking in but do have a shot:

https://twitter.com/d3bubble/status/1497596029008445440?s=21

With very few upsets (meaning few easy out surprise league winners in the tourney) so far and a very deep group of strong veteran teams in D3 this year it's going to be a loaded tourney top to bottom.  After round one there should be very, very few easy games. 

As for today, I'd say Wes and Williams are both around minus 8.  Either could lose, but it would take Trinity or Midd's A game, plus they'd need to catch a few breaks. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

There's a lot of thievery potential today, though.

[nescac1]

True enough.  Between Salve Regina, Drew, Mary Washington, Wooster, North Central, Keene State and Rowan I'd say the over/under is 2.5 bid thieves, and as many as four would not shock me.  None of them are massive underdogs .... if I'm a Midd fan I'm rooting against all those teams today.

[Painter66]

As a Midd guy, I was not happy with the outcomes in the CCIW last night, particularly Illinois Wes going down and North Central winning. I know they are going to get several bids, so maybe not a big deal. But, I have been a "chalk" guy all week and certainly will be this afternoon. Of course, we could make it easier on ourselves with a win.

[nescac1]

Tremendous, very even semifinal between Wesleyan and Trinity.  It's a shame that Trinity's season has to end because they really played great ball down the stretch after an uneven start to the year.  Trinity had a good look from 3 to tie the game on the buzzer but it just bounced off the rim. 

Great frosh point guard battle in this game, with Dorion going for 14-5-12 and Nicky Johnson (who continues his tremendous play over the past month) 7-9-14, he is lightning quick going towards the basket.  Those two should have some good battles for years to come.  Wes struggled from the line, going 3-8 with two front-end 1-and-1 missed down the stretch, which almost burned them, but made some clutch FGs down the stretch. 

Trinity did a great job on Peek (I think it was Lue who was playing especially good wing defense), who had a bit of an off shooting day, but Jordan James really hurt them on both ends of the floor around the basket, he's been playing so well down the stretch.  Callahan-Gold has a beautiful stroke and hit four big triples in the second half, but also takes some absolutely wild shots.  Donald Jorden ends his fine career with another solid game inside but I give James the edge today in the battle of two great big men. 

[jumpshot]

Williams dominates Midd again today 78-61. EPHS defense combined with poor outside shooting by panthers (1 for 13 from distance) stifles Midd.
EPHS play Williams basketball with balanced scoring, excellent depth, 19 assists, only 9 turnovers ... and an excellent game plan as close observers surely could tell. Likely ends Midd season depending on related Pool C outcomes ....

[nescac1]

Well the two teams that were head and shoulders above everyone else will meet for the NESCAC title, which is how it should be.  I expect an extremely fired up crowd based on what we saw today in the Wesleyan-Trinity game, and it should be a really fun game.  I think both teams are near-locks to host a pod regardless of the outcome.  If Wesleyan wins, they are hosting through the Final Four for sure.  If Williams, wins, perhaps the same thing holds true.  But first, the Williams-Midd semi.

Williams dominated the last five minutes of the first half.  The rest of the game was basically even, but that huge Williams run to end the half was just too much for Midd to overcome.  During the run, Williams hit three triples from the parking lot (I'd say at least 27 feet each), two by Declan Porter and one by Cole Prowitt-Smith, all absolutely pure.  The Ephs shot the ball really well today and Midd wasn't even close on their outside shots (most of which were very heavily contested), that was the difference in the game. 

For Williams, the man of the game was clearly Spencer Spivy, who had his best overall game as an Eph.  He's been looking to score more and more in the paint, where his 6'6 frame presents a mismatch for most guards, and he's been gradually becoming more effective in doing so.  He had a tremendous all around day today, 20-3-5 plus 2 blocks, even despite missing a lay-up where he could not decide whether to dunk the ball or not.  He also did an amazing job guarding Noah Osher (his primary assignment) who just had a nightmarish day, 1-16 from the field.  Midd was all over Nate Karren and he had very few opportunities to shoot, but the ones he had, he made count, with 11 points on only 5 FGA.  He continues his pure shooting from deep.  Cole Prowitt-Smith, Declan Porter, and Brandon Roughley also had strong offensive games for the Ephs.  Roughley with 9 points in only 9 minutes, he really is a unique weapon and I hope the Ephs find creative ways to get him more court time and more touches moving towards the basket when he's on the court.  Roughley and Porter are going to score a lot of points over the next three seasons and on nearly any other team they'd be taking many more shots. 

For Midd, Sobel was very impressive, especially in the second half.  Once he gets deep post position it's basically over, he's so strong, has such long arms, and he shoots so quickly and from such weird angles, his style is so different from any other big guy around. He gets my vote for POY, he's just been the best, most consistent, and most important overall player in the league.  He needs to avoid picking up ticky-tack fouls but really that's the only deficit in his game at this point, he should have an awesome senior year and he deserves to be an all-American this year.  Jovan Jones did a great job on Sam Stevens, who still managed to find ways to score, usually in transition, off second chances, or when other guys were guarding him.  But I think he had 1, at most 2, baskets vs. Jovan when guarded by him in half-court sets.  He's a great player already who will only get better but right now he has to do too much on offense.  I do think it's close between Stevens and Nicky Johnson for ROY, both have been SO good it's unfair that one will get shut out.  David Brennan also used his physicality well and had his usual productive game inside.  Cisse is also one to watch off the bench, he's big, strong, athletic, needs to work on his skills but a great energy guy going forward. 

Midd has to hope for basically zero more upsets in conference finals over the next 24 hours but it seems unlikely they squeeze into the tourney.  Whether or not they do, what a job by Jeff Brown this year.  Today's second half effort exemplified it.  Williams is a terrible match-up for them and they easily could have quit when they went down 21 early in the second half, but they fought like heck to stay in the game, just scrapped and scrapped and found ways to score the ball in the paint.  That team will never give up without a fight.  They will be no fun to play next year when they have a deeper team.