MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

When the D-Man chimes in you know it's a bad take! 

Williams and NESCAC fans certainly know there is great basketball played outside of NESCAC.  I think it's also fair to say that Stevens -- a 9-loss team that lost to Swarthmore by 26, lost to Hamilton (not a top tier NESCAC team this year), didn't beat a single top 25 team all season before the Mount Union game, wasn't ranked in the top 25 all season, and was a "4" seed in its pod (although based on actual talent level, Neumann should have been the 4 seed and Stevens the 3) -- is a very solid, veteran team that played way over its head in both the entire Mount Union game and the second half vs. Williams.  Williams is more talented than Stevens.  It had a much stronger season.  Stevens was the underdog in this game, and rightfully so.  It was also the rightful underdog against Mount Union and won that game.  Just like if Williams played, say, Randolph Macon or (as it might next weekend with a win over an evenly-matched Wabash team) Illinois Wesleyan, it would be the underdog, and it would not be an insult to Williams fans to say so.  I think for Williams to beat a top-5 type of team it would need to play its A game for sure, and catch a few breaks as well.  But Stevens was not even close to a top 25 team this year, and this is a game Williams should have won (and ultimately did).

In the first half, Williams was in total control of the game, and the second half was a combination of Stevens really upping its intensity and playing great, and, yes, Williams absolutely tightening up and playing at maybe its C- level.  That the Ephs could not hit a free throw to save their lives until the last minute of the game has nothing to do with Stevens' level of play.  Nor were several missed wide open 3's from great shooters, or several really bad turnovers leading to easy transition points. The Ephs are a really young team who were being tested in a win-or-go-home setting for the first time, and it showed.   

As for the refs, well, fans of different teams will always see things differently, but I almost never complain about the refs and I thought Stevens clearly got the benefit of several big calls in the second half (in particular every close block/charge call).  Nate Karren was being hammered all game long (including on the correct calls late in the game, and when he was hit on a three point shot that wasn't called) yet he picked up some absolute nonsense touch fouls that forced him to the bench for long stretches of the game, and Stevens guys continually flopped at the slightest contact and kept drawing charges (not all of them were bad calls, but I thought two were pretty ridiculous), and meanwhile, on a key play late in the game Jovan Jones was in (as he almost always is) perfect defensive position, got totally bowled over, and yet he somehow got called for a blocking foul, just utterly ridiculous considering the charge calls that were going the other way with the slightest bit of contact.  To suggest that the refs favored Williams in this game is just nonsense, especially when you look at fouls Karren picked up.   

I do agree that DiPietrantonio's injury was a huge break for Williams (and by the way I acknowledged that in my post), he is the one guy who really killed us the entire game and who we had a ton of trouble matching up with, he is brutally physical and just can't be moved out of the post, but Stevens got some breaks in the game too, in particular, the weak foul calls on the Ephs' top player.  In the end, the better team won, and Stevens did themselves proud this weekend by playing their butts off against two teams with more overall talent. 

I certainly agree that Williams has work to do if it wants to keep moving forward.  If it plays like it did in the first half agains Stevens, it can beat anyone.  If it plays like it did in the second half, the odds of even one more victory are very slim.  The Ephs have had a lot of games like that this season, with one great half one not-so-great one.  I think they played their A game the entire game in the NESCAC title game (even though they lost, that was a really well-played game all around, which is why it's a bummer that Wesleyan didn't show what it is capable of this weekend) and the first three halves of the tournament.  That's the level they will need to be at for the entire game vs. Wabash (more on them later, a really interesting team) on Friday.   

[nescac1]

Speaking of Wabash, I think Williams and Wabash are basically even as teams and it should be a really great game.  Wabash will surely be the best offensive team the Ephs have played all year, and Williams will probably be the best defensive team that Wabash has faced this year.  Wabash is red-hot, having won 22 straight games, and most of those wins were not close.  They average over 90 ppg (which is crazy for a team that seems to play a pretty normal pace of basketball) on insane shooting stats: 52/40/82. 

Wabash is I'd say the first team Williams has played all year that is clearly a better outside shooting team than Williams.  Jack Davison in particular is a problem, basically the Steph Curry of D3.  He is totally comfortable shooting the ball from 30 feet away, and his shooting stats are just absurd (53/49/91).  You can't ever give him a wide open three point look, certainly, but also never want to foul him. He's going to score, but the key is to make him get his points on a high volume of hard attempts.   It's not by accident he has over 2000 career points. I assume that he will see a lot of Jovan Jones, Spencer Spivy, and Evan Glatzer, all of whom have done a great job making ace outside shooters uncomfortable all year long, but of course, none of those shooters were in Davidson's class. 

Wabash's point guard Tyler Watson is also an excellent shooter, distributor and all-around player.  I'd be very surprised if there is any better backcourt in the country outside of Wabash and RMC.  Schreiber, their undersized but beefy center, is also a very efficient finisher around the rim, hitting on 70 percent of his shots, Nate will not be able to help much because you don't want to give him clean looks at the rim.  Wabash moves the ball incredibly efficiently and their drive and kick action is especially deadly. 

What Wabash is not is big -- their starting lineup runs 6'5, 6'4, 6'2, 6'1, 6'0, so the Ephs will have a 3-4 inch size advantage at every spot.  Nor is Wabash unusually quick or athletic.  They just play really smart basketball and shoot the heck out of the ball.  I'd be stunned if Wabash puts up their typical 90 points vs. the Ephs' defense, but also, Williams is going to have score well above their pedestrian offensive average to win this game.  The Ephs are going to have to get Karren and Roughley going inside, and also find ways to get our big wings (Porter has been very effective when he gets the ball in the post, and Spivy has been more aggressive going to the hole as well of late) shots near the rim.  This is also a game where the Ephs are going to have to get some second chance points and exploit the size advantage on the boards.  Because if it just becomes a shooting contest, as good as the Ephs' shooters are, the odds are in Wabash's favor. 

[SpringSt7]

I apologize if it came across as arrogant but Stevens scored 61 points. They are a good team and deserve all of the credit in the world for coming back and taking the lead but they had to work so hard for their points with DiPietrantonio out. App has found a combination of size and IQ that takes away the 3 point line. No easy layups and no open threes. Take all the mid range you want. If that is somehow cocky or arrogant than I'm sorry you feel that way but they really won the game because they held Stevens to 23 points in the first half and built a cushion. They played pretty below par in the second half.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

The size difference would be my biggest concern for Wabash.  A bigger Emory was able to effectively shut down almost everyone except Davidson. Jones had a good game because he was a little quicker than Emory's bigs. I think the Williams wing guys probably have the size to stay with him.  Speed will be Williams' issue.  I've not been impressed with how your guys move, especially inside.  App's going to need a really good help system worked out that doesn't leave the cross court pass open.

[SpringSt7]

I don't really worry about the Williams defense going forward as much as I do their offense. The defense has been great, although I think I'm already resigned to the fact that Davidson is just going to have 35 almost no matter what.

The offense is very boom or bust right now. They have the shooting to send any of the other 15 teams home in an elimination game, and shooting + great defense is a good combination to have, but the interior finishing is not good enough right now to overcome an off shooting night, which the past App teams have had. Karren has been poor the last two weeks or so and Cole Prowitt-Smith is just not someone who you have the utmost confidence in at this still early stage in his development.

[nescac1]

Yeah I would not say Williams is lightning quick laterally but they are so well positioned on the floor and have so much length and depth everywhere that it more than compensates.  Williams has surrendered more than 67 points in regulation play only three times all YEAR -- and those three games were all either with a depleted roster, coming after a long layoff due to COVID, or both. When Williams is healthy, it's incredibly difficult to get to 70 points and typically teams are in the low 60s if that.  They have an elite wing defender in Jones who can often significantly limit the opposing team's top wing option.  They rarely foul so they are not giving up many free points.  And they guard the three point line really well, with their length typically really bothering opposing shooters.  I think the best ways to beat Williams are with elite, very fast penetrating guards or a very physical, skilled low post player who is hard to move away from the basket.  But even then, it's really difficult to crack 70 against the Ephs. On paper, Wabash is the sort of team that the Ephs have had success against.   

But then again, Wabash has exactly the opposite statistical profile, and clearly, they do what they do better than anyone.  They have not scored below 80 points in 2022 and usually they are well above that.  No one seems to be able to slow their offense, and especially Jack Davidson, down much the way it is humming right now.  It will be really interesting to see how it all shakes out. 

Agree with Spring St that the offense is a bigger question mark.  The Ephs lack that one offensive player who can be counted on to take over a tight game all on his own.  Their two sophomore leaders might get there eventually (both have certainly had moments like that), but not quite yet.  The Ephs have so many games where they play brilliant offense one half but get really bogged down and have to grit it out with defense the other half.  At this stage of the tourney, the defense can only carry them so far, and the offense needs to put together two good halves. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I know you guys have been high on some of these NESCAC defenses all year and you certainly watch more than me, but I've not thought Williams' defense was on par with some of the best teams in the country.  I don't know that it'll matter against Wabash, which certainly is not a top defense - but if there's a matchup with IWU down the road, that could be a real wakeup call.

That's why they play the games, though, right?

[Bucket]

Always weird when of your rivals loses on really the only weekend of the year that you want them to win.

Weird play call at the end. Maccoux wouldn't have been first on my list of guys I draw that set up for, especially considering Peek had it going. But the difference was really RPI's ability to take away Jordan James, who came into the game with 8 straight games of 13 points or more and managed just 7 on 4 shots.

This is also now 3 out of the last 5 seasons that Williams has advanced the farthest of any NESCAC team in the tournament. A pretty remarkable achievement given the landscape.

Effective packline defense takes away interior play; the only two games that Duke's Paolo Banchero did not score in double figures this year were against UVa. So I'm not surprised at this James stat line.

Crushing loss for the Cards. My heart goes out to them.

Congrats Ephs. Keep rolling!

[SpringSt7]

I know you guys have been high on some of these NESCAC defenses all year and you certainly watch more than me, but I've not thought Williams' defense was on par with some of the best teams in the country.  I don't know that it'll matter against Wabash, which certainly is not a top defense - but if there's a matchup with IWU down the road, that could be a real wakeup call.

I don't like being negative on here (especially about my own team), because what's the point in that? This is not an elite, elite Williams team compared to past iterations. They are still a year away and have a lot of holes they can still fix up. But there are 16 teams left still playing and they are 1 of them so at some point I figure they might deserve some credit. They are holding opposing teams to 39% from the floor and 29% from 3.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I know you guys have been high on some of these NESCAC defenses all year and you certainly watch more than me, but I've not thought Williams' defense was on par with some of the best teams in the country.  I don't know that it'll matter against Wabash, which certainly is not a top defense - but if there's a matchup with IWU down the road, that could be a real wakeup call.

I don't like being negative on here (especially about my own team), because what's the point in that? This is not an elite, elite Williams team compared to past iterations. They are still a year away and have a lot of holes they can still fix up. But there are 16 teams left still playing and they are 1 of them so at some point I figure they might deserve some credit. They are holding opposing teams to 39% from the floor and 29% from 3.

I think they're very good.  I've had them as my top NESCAC team most of the season.  The perimeter defense is the key, for sure.  They limit good shots and prevent the ball from getting inside.  At this point, any criticism of any team is a nitpick, right?  I just think, if you're working up a game plan to attack the Williams defense, you'd want to be getting the ball into the paint, if you can - and preferably on drives over entry passes.  That's easier said than done, but you gotta start somewhere.

[SpringSt7]

Any criticism is definitely a nit pick, fair. I'd just think the nitpicks would start with the offense because the defense has been a lot more consistent. As you mention, getting the ball inside is a lot more viable of a strategy consider Jovan Jones at 6'5 is a much smaller 4 man than they have traditionally had. But I would guess that if they are knocked out it will be because they can't score enough points. A shootout with Jack Davidson or trying to keep up with Adom/Cruickshank scares me a lot more stylistically than a rock fight with Illinois Wesleyan and Leritz scares me a lot more, even if IWU is the best overall team in the pod on paper.

[toad22]

I just got back from Alliance, Ohio. As an Eph fan, it was a glorious weekend. Getting to the round of 16 is an accomplishment almost no Eph fan would have dreamed of at the beginning of the season. With such a young team, most fans were inclined to chant "wait till next year" from early on. Then, with COVID, and the Williams protocols crashing down on the team, I figured our season was toast. The team lost nearly a month of practices, and six games. I give the players, but even more so the coaches, led by Kevin App, enormous credit for keeping the team above water. Williams is certainly behind schedule in their development. You just can't get all those practices and games back. Given all that, to be one of the last 16 dancing is just a spectacular achievement for the team. I can't wait to get out to Illinois Wesleyan and the Shirk Center! I have no illusions about the enormity of the task. Every team left is really good. Williams will be the underdog for however many games remain for them. Nobody around Williamstown thinks that the team has peaked, with nowhere to improve. They are still evolving and, hopefully, getting better. It is just incredible fun for the Ephs and their fans to have the season continuing for another week. If you are still playing this late in March, you are having a great year!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It's six of one, half dozen of another, I suppose.  If you're worried about your offense executing at this stage of the year, there's not much hope.  Wabash's good, but not great defense should provide opportunities to put the ball in the basket; you just have to hope your own defense can limit their chances on the other end.  I'm sure its just personal preference, but I'd always rather try to outscore a good offense than try to score on a good defense.  Lord help us if the same team has both!

[Painter66]

With no real dog in the fight, other than a NESCAC lifetime, I think we are at an interesting tipping point. For the past couple years, I have believed the Williams model of  ever-bigger athletes who can defend and shoot for the outside was the future of D# basketball. I have not always thought that was great but reality. This year's games just reinforced that. But now we get a game where a much smaller team with an  incredible 52/41/ 90 will go against a team that only allows 39/29 a game. It is a great match up, and we should all tune in to see. The future of the D3 game in on display. It should be a lot of fun.

[nescac1]

To Toad's point, Williams' experience level is dramatically different than the other teams remaining on its entire side of the bracket.  The Ephs' top nine features one senior, one junior, four sophomores and three frosh.  That's as many frosh combined as the other seven teams regularly play (and none of the others are starting a first year, like Williams is, rather they are at the back of the rotation).  In terms of most significant rotation players ...

IWU: three seniors, three juniors, one sophomore, one first year
Wabash: three seniors, one junior, two sophomores, one first year
Wheaton: five seniors, one junior, one sophomore
Elmhurst: four seniors, four juniors
Calvin: four graduate students, one senior, one junior, one sophomore
Case: three graduate students, two seniors, one junior, two sophomores
MHB: two seniors, three juniors, three sophomores, one first year

For most of these teams, their star players tend to be seniors or graduate students, in a few cases maybe some juniors as well.   Even for most of the teams that lost in the second round, it was largely the same deal, with, for example, Wash U., Stevens, Emory and all three WIAC teams relying heavily on upperclassmen, and in particular seniors or grad students. 

This is a year, more than any I can recall, where very experienced teams are excelling.  Of course, experience is always an advantage, but usually there are at least a few teams that are far younger advancing far into the tourney.  I'd also be curious to see the breakdown of teams that played a season last year, vs. teams that did not.  For example, all three remaining CCIW teams played something resembling a season last year, with some games and lots of practice, while many conferences essentially lost an entire year of hoops.  So, that feels like a huge disadvantage, just in terms of game experience, for the teams like Williams.  Williams (in part due to six games lost this year) has played 23 games over two seasons. IWU has played 37.  It's hard to make up those on court reps!

On the other hand, there is at least (maybe?) a certain amount of freedom in knowing that, for most of the roster, a loss in the tourney doesn't mean the end of your college basketball career.  Perhaps you can play with a bit less pressure on your backs!  Still, I'm excited that Williams has two more seasons with at least seven out of nine guys leading the rotation still playing, even though it will then be the team carrying the burden of high expectations.