MBB: NESCAC

[Greek Tragedy]

https://twitter.com/WisconsinHerd/status/1731798542925058416?t=N8yXfUZYinlvUqSsI43u4g&s=19

Sam Peek signs with the Wisconsin Herd of the G-League.

[Old Guy]

Well, as Troy Maxson says in Fences, you gotta take the crookeds with the straights — and we sure have some crookeds right now. Middlebury was hammered yesterday by Chicago: as Tom Waits might say, we "got rained on" with threes by the Maroon who were 14 for 31 from the arc. I watched the games on Saturday and was not impressed with either Chicago or Bowdoin, thought we can lick both those guys.

Then, on Sunday, Bowdoin played great and knocked off Carnegie-Mellon, who had been the most impressive of the six reams on Saturday. The Hamilton-Carnegie Mellon game Saturday was close and well played, but both teams lost on Sunday — and Bowdoin played without McGowan (I'm told a concussion). Rochester did to Hamilton what they did to Midd the day before, just ran away in the final quarter.

Middlebury was never in it, down by as many as 25 in the first half and 30 in the second. Really no silver linings. Couldn't make a shot; couldn't guard the perimeter. Kuba Cwalina had 13 points in 21 minutes (3-5 from three). Other than that, just a butt-kicking, down 25 in the first half and 35 in the second. Long afternoon. Coach Brown played every combination possible. We have 4/5ths of last year's starting line-up (and the first two subs off the bench: Flaks and McKersie) So, yes, as NESCAC1 says, Sobel's a huge loss and looms bigger and bigger. But still, this lost?

I text with my friend from Maine during the games. His advice: burn the tape, next practice should be like the beginning of the season. It'll be interesting. We have three games in the next 5 days, Plattsburgh (2-5) there Wednesday, Skidmore (2-5) here Friday, Stevens Tech (6-1) in Hoboken on Sunday and final exams next week.

[nescac1]

Happy to see another Tom Waits fan on the boards (my all time favorite musician ...)!

[names jaismith]

Saw Midd play any number of times last year.  Sobel the rare player who elevated everyone else so the whole was better than the sum of the parts.  Other guys are good but without Sobel they are more exposed.  Same on the other end of the spectrum with Nicky Johnson.  Wes former and current guys are good but not exceptional on their own.  Without Johnson they'd be a whole different team.  Credit to Sobel and Johnson for their unique talents.

[jumpshot]

NESCAC basketball teams are often challenged by opposing rosters sprinkled with good city game players who get to the rim or in the lane by being quick off the bounce, have some mid-range game, and are relentless on the offensive board from growing up playing "straight-up" (not required to take the ball back behind the foul line after getting a rebound) ---all characteristics gained from playground basketball. One major college coach told me at lunch last week that many of his recruiting prospects have only played outside infrequently, thus narrowly skilled from hours on indoor courts shooting from distance (no wind and commonly with mechanical aids), dependent on teammates helping them get shots, and sometimes lacking creative offensive fundamentals and tough, physical defense.

While these are general statements for which there obviously are many exceptions, the best basketball players often come from the inner city playgrounds
of New York, Chicago, Washington, D.C, Houston, Los Angeles, etc. Conversely, careful viewing of NESCAC teams over the years can reveal which players have some playground experience and those who clearly don't.

Your thoughts?

[WPI89]

As of right now, Amherst and WPI are both scheduled to play Gettysburg on 12/29, the first round of the Stevens tournament.  Stevens is still listed as tbd.  Does anyone have any clarification?

[Bucket]

Not a typo: David Brennan—at 6'6"—had 28 rebounds for Middlebury in an 80-76 OT win at Plattsburgh on Wednesday.

Tristan Joseph with a career-high of 25, starting in place of Sam Stevens, who was a DNP. Osher with 26 and 6 assists.

Panthers host Skidmore on Friday and then travel to Stevens next week before entering the break.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

As of right now, Amherst and WPI are both scheduled to play Gettysburg on 12/29, the first round of the Stevens tournament.  Stevens is still listed as tbd.  Does anyone have any clarification?

Amherst is playing Stevens.  It's correct on all the team websites.  I just fixed the d3hoops.com schedule.

[maineman]

Not a typo: David Brennan—at 6'6"—had 28 rebounds for Middlebury in an 80-76 OT win at Plattsburgh on Wednesday.

Tristan Joseph with a career-high of 25, starting in place of Sam Stevens, who was a DNP. Osher with 26 and 6 assists.

Panthers host Skidmore on Friday and then travel to Stevens next week before entering the break.

I am sure glad that Midd prevailed in OT, but they obviously had to work extra hard to beat a 2-6 Plattsburgh team.  I wonder where that is going to place them in the food chain once the NESCAC season begins?  Meanwhile, I hope Stevens gets back soon.  Perhaps he tried to come back too soon following his injury.

The pecking order is changing at Midd.  Flaks has moved ahead of Bobbett at the G position.  Perhaps some competition for playing time can spur one or the other to win it outright and hopefully it will be based on point output.  Joseph has moved into the starting role and I hope he can keep it that way.  Moving forward, when Stevens is back, I expect Joseph to remain  a starter. Also, it would be nice to see Kulina increase his scoring and compete for more time.  A different combination is going to be required than just last year's starting five less Sobel and adding in McKersie.  Hopefully a new five will emerge with more scoring potential.

[WPI89]

As of right now, Amherst and WPI are both scheduled to play Gettysburg on 12/29, the first round of the Stevens tournament.  Stevens is still listed as tbd.  Does anyone have any clarification?

Amherst is playing Stevens.  It's correct on all the team websites.  I just fixed the d3hoops.com schedule.

Thanks Ryan!

[SpringSt7]

3 guys that are having better seasons that you might realize:

1. Jack Lawson - Colby: 16/9/3 on 52/22/68. Has taken the sophomore -> junior leap. Might never be the 3 pt shooter he or Strahorn want him to be but now the 2s are falling at a career high clip, his rebounds and assists have collectively doubled, and he's almost taken more free throws this year than he did all of last year.

2. Chris Hammond - Amherst: It's not the 14.8 points per game, although any individuals from Amherst might struggle to stand out due to their depth, but it's the 29-55 from 3 pt land for Hammond (53%) that is especially eye popping. They could really use a standout wing during league play and he might be the guy.

3. Jared Langs - Wesleyan: Just shy of a double double at 9.6 points and 9.1 rebounds. Only shooting 50% from the field and 2-9 from 3 but the first time in a while that Wesleyan has had a guy they can throw the ball into in the post and get them a bucket. Could make a difference come the turn of the year as defenses continue to hone in on Johnson and Regan.

[Bucket]

A short-handed Middlebury—Sam Stevens, Jaden Bobbett, and Jackson McKersie all out with injury—had no problem with Skidmore, running past the Thoroughbreds, 69-51.

David Brennen grabbed 20 rebounds for the second consecutive game (he had an even 20 tonight after recording an eye-popping 28 earlier this week against Plattsburgh). Skidmore started a front court of 6'7", 6'8", 6'10", which didn't faze Brennan in the least. He added eight points and 4 assists.

Evan Flaks led all scorers with 17; also contributed six assists.

Charley Moore flashing a nice all-around game, 10 and 7, knocking down mid-range jumpers which hadn't been part of his repertoire, previously.

And second consecutive start for Tristan Joseph, also in double figures with 10 points, including a highlight-reel baseline drive and slam.

Midd concludes the 2023 portion of its schedule on the road at Stevens early next week.

[nescac1]

Huge win for Tufts which looks like a legit candidate for best team in the country.  Here is the great final play by Tufts: https://x.com/iwuhoopscom/status/1733587060995305486?s=46&t=f6sxXDdfYkdSSeU0Te9c9A

That last play was beautifully designed and executed with everyone on the floor for Tufts getting involved.

In addition to scoring the winning bucket (vs a first team all-American who is a fearsome shot blocker) Bernstein was a monster on defense and the glass, blocking or altering a ton of shots.  Keene was very hesitant to shoot around the rim down the stretch.

When Champion has it going (he was scorching today) Tufts has it all.  Gyimisi and Bernstein are skilled, big and physical.  Gyimisi has a really sweet mid-range touch.  Morakis is tough going to the rim.  Dieterle, McClaren, and Champion provide some spacing.  The frosh guards are impressive, especially Medley, who looks poised on offense and will be an elite defender - he's going to be a problem in time and looked like he belonged already in a huge road game.  Tufts is gonna be a national contender for the next three years and I'd be surprised if this group doesn't finally break through to Tufts' first Final Four in that time frame. 

Thoughts on yet another gritty, ugly win for an injury-depleted Eph team later ...

[nescac1]

Somehow, Williams pulls out yet another come from behind win and finishes the semester 9-1, with nine consecutive wins.  The last four wins have been familiar: down 18 at half v. Emmanuel, win by 4; down four at half vs. Wesleyan, win by 2; down six with 10 minutes left v. Oneonta, win by 5; down 11 at half v. Springfield, win by by 5.  I'm not sure why Williams plays so much freer, and with so much more defensive urgency, late in games, but the Ephs will need to bring that level of play to the opening tip as the schedule is about to get much tougher. 

Nothing seems to come easy for this Eph team on offense.  Part of it is so much mixing and matching with the roster -- Porter and Hansen have missed the entire semester, Dinkins missed a few games with injuries, Karren was banged up to start the season, and now PG Glatzer is out indefinitely after suffering an ugly-looking injury against Oneonta; his loss was definitely felt on both ends today.  So that's 3 of the top 6-7 guys heading into the season.  But also, Williams just can't seem to hit the 3 ball this year and has struggled crazily with some really cryptic turnovers.  And they rarely secure offensive rebounds.   So how are they 9-1?  Very tough collective defense, especially in the second half - they just have a way of making opposing shooters uncomfortable with good length and intensity contesting shots throughout the rotation; some good fortunate as well with opposing teams' shooting woes (it's not ALL good defense, Springfield like many other opponents missed some clean looks today); incredibly clutch play down the stretch of games; and an ability to get to the rim and draw fouls, where (until today) the Ephs had been absolutely deadly from the line. 

Today, Alex Lee, who has been the one offensive constant, had his first quiet offensive game since the WPI game, so other guys had to step up.  Alex Stoddard, who had been struggling to get anything fall (I swear he had three triples just barely rim out in recent games) was huge in the second half, with a breakaway dunk, a 3-for-3 after getting fouled on a three point attempt, and a pair of massive threes down the stretch to break a streak of (at least) 12 straight missed 3's for a guy who is a very able shooter.  Sammy Cooley had a quintessential glue guy game, 4-5-3 plus 2 steals, his versatility (playing anywhere from the 2 to the 4) has been huge for a guy who wouldn't be in the rotation at all but for all the injuries.  Kudos by the way to the EXCELLENT Springfield announcing crew, who were not homers at all, and made a lot of astute observations (like an off-ball screen by Cooley that resulted in a bucket), including Cooley's quiet impact on the game.  Really though, it was a total team effort with no one having a particular "on" day but everyone who played making some contributions.

Tufts and Trinity seem worlds ahead of the rest of NESCAC right now.  But after a pretty choppy start to the semester, all of a sudden NESCAC has been playing very well, collectively.  Tufts, which as noted in my prior post looks GREAT, should be a top 5 team, and Trinity, which utterly destroyed a solid WNEC today, a top 10 team in the next poll.  Both have well exceeded pre-season expectations.  Williams continues to chug along at 9-1 and the ceiling remains well higher than the level the Ephs have shown to date, especially if they get some key players back.  Wesleyan and Conn wrapped up strong first semesters with only two losses apiece (in Conn's case, both came to top 25 teams). 

Even Midd (two straight wins), Hamilton (back to back wins over two of the stronger teams in the NY region, Utica and St. John Fisher), and Bowdoin (big win over undefeated Carnegie Mellon and another team which should benefit if its injured players can return; McGowan is back in the lineup today) have shown signs of life after rough starts.  The most flummoxing team is Amherst, which won two straight games in which it came back from 19 plus point deficits against, frankly, what should have been outmatched opponents.  Amherst, which is a respectable 7-3 but against a very bad schedule, feels like a team who can compete with just about anyone but also be beaten by literally ANYONE.  The Amherst schedule is about to get MUCH tougher: Stevens, Gettysburg or WPI, Wesleyan, Williams, Midd, Tufts ... all of those teams are a level or two up from the teams Amherst has beaten to date. 

Colby has looked solid enough especially for a team that relies on a lot of first year players in the rotation.  And even Bates has some reason for optimism with the FY duo of Begin and Pouye providing some foundation for the future - as I type they are pulling away from Colby in OT, behind an absolute monster game from Begin! 

[nescac1]

More on just how good Tufts and Trinity have been to start the year:

In d3 datacast's efficiency rankings, Trinity is first nationally and Tufts second.  (Wesleyan is 26, Williams 69, Conn 70, no one else in NESCAC cracks the top 100). 

https://d3datacast.com/efficiency-ratings/

Tufts is ranked second overall in Massey ratings, Trinity fourth.  Williams is 25th, Wesleyan 54th, Conn 95, and the rest of NESCAC below 100. 

https://masseyratings.com/cb/ncaa-d3/ratings

If you look at these together, I think it paints a pretty fair picture of where the league is now.  Trinity and Tufts are playing like true national contenders.  Wesleyan and Williams like borderline tournament type teams.  Conn like a tournament longshot but who could sneak in if it gets hot.  And really, I think it's safe to say, even at this early stage, that the bottom six in NESCAC will all need to win the NESCAC tourney to play in the tourney this year, all have racked up a fair number of losses and few if any significant wins. 

One red flag for Trinity is that it can't afford TOO many losses due to its very weak schedule.  Despite being 11-0, it's currently only fifth in the projected region one rankings (Tufts is 1st, Williams 3rd, Wesleyan 7th, Conn just misses at 8th). 

https://d3datacast.com/regional-ranking-data/region-1/

Tufts, on the other hand, would likely be the top seed in ALL of D3 if the season ended today.  Just an incredible resume right now with wins over the top three teams in Region 2 (!) and the fourth ranked team in Region 1.  Of course, a VERY long way to go and a lot can change during NESCAC play!  Region 2 is not deep and I don't see WPI, Keene or Clark falling back much, so those wins for Tufts will be huge come tourney selection time -- Tufts could probably go 8-6 the rest of the regular season and still be a lock for the tournament (and of course, I expect they will do much better than that).  Trinity despite its crazy efficiency to date has much less margin for error with St. Joe's likely to be its only significant non-league win, but of course has lots of opportunities for big wins in NESCAC play.   Tufts hosts Trinity the last game of the regular season, and that game is already looming large with huge tourney implications. 

https://d3datacast.com/regional-ranking-data/region-1/