MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Agree with Toad.  I think Trinity is likely to be a top seed in a quadrant.  Tufts and Williams will likely be second seeds in pods, with Williams lower than Tufts.  Since neither will be sent to Trinity, the teams that could host them are likely RMC, Widener, NYU, Keene State, Oswego, and Catholic.  I'd expect Tufts and Williams to each be traveling to one of those schools.  And I bet one of them goes to Keene.

Now that season is done, some revised all-league picks:

POTY: David Murray
ROTY: Jon Medley
COTY: Kevin App and James Cosgrove
DPOTY: Dana Smith

All league first team: Murray, Nate Karren, Henry Vetter, Shane Regan, Hank Morgan
All league second team: Ben Callahan-Gold, Nicky Johnson, Noah Osher, Scott Gyamisi, Max Poulton

I feel like the Poulton spot is wide open, I could see arguments for probably five guys for that slot.  The other nine to me seem very clear cut (not the placement but all nine should be on one of the all-league teams). 

Other players to watch next year: Jarrel Okorougo, Brandon Roughley, Alex Lee, Charlie Randle, Will Scherer, James Morakis, Tristan Joseph, Teja Singh, Garret Keyhani, Elias Espinosa

Teams trending up for next year: Wesleyan, Tufts, Hamilton, Amherst

[D3BBALL]

2 spectacular games and you can see why no one would want to play Tufts, Trinity, or Williams going forward. All 3 teams have depth and different players stepped up each game. Amherst has a bright future, only losing 2 players and they have skill and height.

Trinity is a lock to host next week, and will probably get the next weekend as well if they get there. They deserve a number 1 seed.

On the awards, I believe they are chosen before the conference tourney starts, someone please correct me on that. Like all your players, I would just add Dana Smith to the 2nd team. I think I would have him over both Poulton and Osher. Just better overall player and head to head, just completely shut both down. Otherwise hard to argue with your picks and placements.

Will be interesting to see how all 3 teams play going forward, again all 3 will be tough matchups for anyone.

 

[SpringSt7]

Awards have not been chosen yet, they will be voted on sometime early this week.

Dana Smith could be a 2nd teamer but probably won't be because he will get DPOY instead. Weird wrinkle that happens sometimes but not the end of the world. The league awards are always so spread out but I would rather have 3 guys from Trinity, 2 from Williams, 2 from Tufts, etc, especially a year like this.

[D3BBALL]

Thanks, I like your thoughts on number of picks per team as well.

[nescac1]

I'd be totally fine with Dana Smith on the second team after what he did yesterday.  He killed Williams in three ways - timing cuts to the basket perfectly for a few uncontested baskets in a game in which those were exceedingly rare (I'm not sure Williams got ANY or if any very few), getting numerous key offensive rebounds leading to second chance points, and his stellar D on Karren - he was all over him on the perimeter so Nate couldn't get any three point looks, but was also strong enough to deal with him down low with some light help shading over. I think I'd noticed Okorougo more than Smith before because he makes flashier plays on defense with those crazy longs arms and great timing.  Both are flat nasty on that end.   

I'd love to see a rubber game between these two given how great the first two games were, but my assumption is if that happens, it won't be early in the tourney, and Williams would have a much rougher path to get there.

As for Tufts and Williams, even though they are clearly the second and third (in some order) best teams in NESCAC, it's just hard to make a statistical case for anyone other than Gyimesi or Karren (and even for Karren, his stats will be the most modest we've maybe ever seen for what I expect to be a first-team all-league guy, simply because his stats during the first semester when he played very hurt were so much worse) for an all-league spot.  Both teams win through depth and balance and different guys stepping up each game. 

[SpringSt7]

I would hear an argument for either Brandon Roughley or Alex Lee on the second team for Williams, even if both are unlikely. Roughley in conference averaged 12/5/2 a game on 52% from the field and that doesn't count the 14 points a game he averaged in 3 NESCAC tournament games. Lee led the team in minutes per game at 32, averaged 10 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists, and was their best perimeter defender. Every year Williams has a truly nationally elite defense but their individual defenders never seem to get any plaudits and at some point the players deserve some credit and not just the coach.

I wouldn't expect either to get recognized (maybe Roughley on second team) but it all depends on what lens the coaches choose to look at it through. You noted that Karren had very modest first semester stats - which is being nice, to be honest - but some coaches I would imagine will only look at the league stats where he averaged 14 a game and shot 56% from the field. It's also a year where the bottom 6 or 7 teams were really a step below the teams in tournament consideration all year from a non conference resume standpoint, week to week consistency in conference, and just general number of good to great players on each team. Trinity went 26-1! Why should someone from a sub .500 team that averaged 19 a game get all-league over Smith or Okorougo?

[nescac1]

All fair points, SpringSt7.  To me, it's really only the last slot that's wide open, and I think any of the guys you just mentioned are deserving for that tenth spot, probably more so than Poulton, who will get his chance as an upperclassman anyway. All are a lot more valuable to their teams than their counting numbers suggest.   

While their team success wasn't quite there, Morgan, Regan, Nicky Johnson and Osher had tremendous individual years.  And it's not like their teams were terrible -- just mediocre.  I am a bit hesitant to put two Wesleyan guys on there when to me that team underachieved, but Regan has to be all-league and it would feel very weird to have an all-league team without Nicky Johnson - he's certainly one of the best ten players in NESCAC. 

And agree also that Williams' individual players do deserve accolades for the team defense. Lee, Cooley, Dinkins and Hansen were lock-down defenders as the year went along, those four plus Glatzer returning will form one of the best perimeter defensive groups in the country next year. In addition, Stoddard grew by leaps and bounds as a defender as the season went along and really harassed opposing shooters. Karren and Arnold developed into a solid rim protection duo.  Roughley was crafty and got a bunch of key steals. And Dan Lee was feisty and smart.  Like Trinity, no one in the ten man rotation was a liability at all.

[D3BBALL]

I do feel it is a little unfair to count tournament games as players can make there way on by playing extra games and off by not getting extra games.

I thought Roughley was outstanding yesterday, could easily make the case he was the best player on the court. Did it on both ends, got hurt in the second half, not sure how much that slowed him down the stretch. But he is going to be a force next year.

I agree it tough to have Poulton on 2nd team, he had some outstanding games but others where he shot poorly. He is the best player on the Colby team, but it was not a good team.

Johnson has to be on 2nd team, but the rest as stated above, just too many good players, some will miss out. If they go with the seniors I would be OK with that. I do think Murray should be MVP.

If there is a rematch between Williams and Trinity, would be another great game. Both games, score wise very similar, lots of defense and some clutch shots by both teams in the last 5 minutes. Would be fun to watch one more time.

[SpringSt7]

Williams will take on DeSales in Round 1 at Oswego St, who will host and play Babson. If the Ephs advance out of the pod the highest seeds they would see in the following weekend would be Widener, Keene St., and Guilford. Might be a little scarred from the past two years, but it seems like a great draw for Williams.

[SpringSt7]

There is still another Northeast pod on the board, but they are making Tufts sweat this one out

[D3BBALL]

Seedings are a joke looks like Trinity is either the 3rd seed in the bracket or the 6th, which means the committee doesn't even see them as a top 10 team.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Seedings are a joke looks like Trinity is either the 3rd seed in the bracket or the 6th, which means the committee doesn't even see them as a top 10 team.

If the seeds hold perfectly (which they often don't in d3, because of geography), Trinity is 11th overall. Given their resume and the selection criteria, that's right in line with where they should be.  Remember, it's not about how good the committee thinks a team is, but about how their resume stacks up against that of other teams.

[nescac1]

I think Williams has a very tough road to the Final Four.  The Ephs never seem to be seeded as high as their national ranking would suggest (and yes I'm aware the D3hoops rankings are irrelevant).  I think the loss to Trinity probably dropped them below St. Joseph's.  I'm not actually sure who is the 2 or 3 seed in that pod between DeSales and Williams, one is likely a very high 3 and the other a very low 2. Right now DeSales is ranked 16th and Williams 20th so that's I think the only first round game between two (current) top 20 teams.  And then if they survive that they have to win on the road against 5th-ranked Oswego, who brings back nearly everyone from last year's elite 8 team, so they are very battle-tested.  It doesn't get much tougher than that in terms of a pathway to the Sweet 16. 

And it's not like Widener, Keene, or Guilford are any picnic if they manage to get there, all have been near the top of the national rankings most of the year. 

VWU and Swarthmore have tremendous coaches who always max those teams out, but nonetheless, I think Trinity is gonna cruise to the Sweet 16, they are simply more talented.  NYU is not a bad likely match-up for Tufts in the second round if the Jumbos survive a Stockton team that no one thought would be selected at all, that would be a fun, up and down game with loads of scoring.  Tufts has a big edge in the paint while NYU has a big edge at PG.  It would be really fun to see Trinity-Tufts playing for a spot in the Elite 8.  The other side of that bracket is very tough with JCU and RMC the two heavies there, but that's a long way down the road. 

Hampden-Sydney is clearly the top overall seed and they for sure have the easiest bracket.  They will be a heavy favorite to advance to the Final Four and likely favored to make the title game as well. 

[D3Parent1]

Trinity had a very weak non-conf schedule and jsut now for the 1st time it just hurt them.  By way of example look at the number of regionally ranked teams they played....8.  Midd for example played 12.....to get the higher seedings Trinity needed to tougher non-conf schedule and the weakness this year of the NESCAC did not help.  Having said that Go Bantams!

[D3Parent1]

Side note: Midd might not be a great example as no one in region 1 seems to have played more RRR games.