MBB: NESCAC

[jumbomumbo]

In an effort to front run names - I will try to take a stab at what will probably be the hardest to predict weekend of the nescac schedule. The only 2 things I am confident in this weekend are a Hamilton sweep of the Maine teams, and conn losing 2 games by a combined 40 or so points.

Jumbomumbo NESCAC prediction record to date: 13-2 (unfortunately I didn't post predictions in week 1, only discovered this newfound fun after my guy names posted and I encourage more of you to do the same)

Friday:
50 Conn - Trinity 64
57 Bates - Williams 66 (hooray!)
64 Amherst - Colby 80
77 Hamilton - Bowdoin 65
69 Tufts - wesleyan 68

Saturday:
60 Tufts - Trinity 51
70 Amherst - Bowdoin 67
55 Conn - Wesleyan 82
72 Hamilton - Colby 70
66 Bates - Midd 72

I'm obviously going to have tufts projected to win both games this weekend because I'm a super fan, but would take 1-1 on the weekend and that's probably the "most likely" outcome. Massey thinks we're going 0-2, but Mumbo has already proven that's just a algorithm - it couldn't even name a single player out there.

Tufts has a recent history with both Wesleyan and Trinity. Trinity could very well be our "modern day" rival. We pumped them in the regular season in 2022 only for them to hand it to us at home in the NESCAC Qfinals. The games are very chippy and very defensive oriented.  They beat us 3 times last year, and the boys will be  out for revenge.

Wesleyan, on the other hand, is almost always a very close game decided in the final seconds. Very exciting weekend for Jumbo nation, gotta capitalize!

[ItsATuftSituation]

I couldn't watch the Tufts-Conn game in real time but was able to afterwards (thank you Jumbocast), and was pretty blown away that Conn didn't get away from their zone as just a mix-up or maybe just try something different. It was completely ineffective against Tufts, it was obvious that Gyimesi working that spot was going to kill Conn plus the skip inside to Bernstein was unstoppable too. I get having an identity, but you got to be able to adjust, right? I like Sweeney too, good coach, but that was surprising.

[D3BBALL]

Sweeney rarely changes out of zone. Conn surprising so far and I think they will give trinity a game unless Trinity plays at a fast pace. If conn can get them in half court game, trinity will have problems.
Tufts may just blow out every remaining opponent except Wesleyan

[walzy31]

In an effort to front run names - I will try to take a stab at what will probably be the hardest to predict weekend of the nescac schedule. The only 2 things I am confident in this weekend are a Hamilton sweep of the Maine teams, and conn losing 2 games by a combined 40 or so points.

Jumbomumbo NESCAC prediction record to date: 13-2 (unfortunately I didn't post predictions in week 1, only discovered this newfound fun after my guy names posted and I encourage more of you to do the same)

Friday:
50 Conn - Trinity 64
57 Bates - Williams 66 (hooray!)
64 Amherst - Colby 80
77 Hamilton - Bowdoin 65
69 Tufts - wesleyan 68

Saturday:
60 Tufts - Trinity 51
70 Amherst - Bowdoin 67
55 Conn - Wesleyan 82
72 Hamilton - Colby 70
66 Bates - Midd 72

I'm obviously going to have tufts projected to win both games this weekend because I'm a super fan, but would take 1-1 on the weekend and that's probably the "most likely" outcome. Massey thinks we're going 0-2, but Mumbo has already proven that's just a algorithm - it couldn't even name a single player out there.

Tufts has a recent history with both Wesleyan and Trinity. Trinity could very well be our "modern day" rival. We pumped them in the regular season in 2022 only for them to hand it to us at home in the NESCAC Qfinals. The games are very chippy and very defensive oriented.  They beat us 3 times last year, and the boys will be  out for revenge.

Wesleyan, on the other hand, is almost always a very close game decided in the final seconds. Very exciting weekend for Jumbo nation, gotta capitalize!

Had to fire up my account to drop in and give kudos and love to JumboMumbo. His prognosticating ability have impressed the powers that be of the D3 Boards, and I've received multiple pings about his work. Gives me great pride in seeing the torch passed and continue on, even if he supports sweaty carolina blue and brown uniforms.

Keep up the great work!

[SpringSt7]

Amherst College @ Springfield College
Amherst -26.5 (-110)
Springfield +26.5 (-110)
O/U: 153.0 (-110)

Props
Jayde Dawson FGAs Vs. Springfield Team 3pt FG Made
Dawson -9.0 (-125)
Springfield +9.0 (-105)

Will Coach Hixon win his 776th game tonight?
Yes (-5000)
No (+2500)

Diego Magana FGA
Over: 1.5 (-115)
Under: 1.5 (-115)

We can only hope jumbomumbo's handicapping career ends more illustriously

[jumbomumbo]

In an effort to front run names - I will try to take a stab at what will probably be the hardest to predict weekend of the nescac schedule. The only 2 things I am confident in this weekend are a Hamilton sweep of the Maine teams, and conn losing 2 games by a combined 40 or so points.

Jumbomumbo NESCAC prediction record to date: 13-2 (unfortunately I didn't post predictions in week 1, only discovered this newfound fun after my guy names posted and I encourage more of you to do the same)

Friday:
50 Conn - Trinity 64
57 Bates - Williams 66 (hooray!)
64 Amherst - Colby 80
77 Hamilton - Bowdoin 65
69 Tufts - wesleyan 68

Saturday:
60 Tufts - Trinity 51
70 Amherst - Bowdoin 67
55 Conn - Wesleyan 82
72 Hamilton - Colby 70
66 Bates - Midd 72

I'm obviously going to have tufts projected to win both games this weekend because I'm a super fan, but would take 1-1 on the weekend and that's probably the "most likely" outcome. Massey thinks we're going 0-2, but Mumbo has already proven that's just a algorithm - it couldn't even name a single player out there.

Tufts has a recent history with both Wesleyan and Trinity. Trinity could very well be our "modern day" rival. We pumped them in the regular season in 2022 only for them to hand it to us at home in the NESCAC Qfinals. The games are very chippy and very defensive oriented.  They beat us 3 times last year, and the boys will be  out for revenge.

Wesleyan, on the other hand, is almost always a very close game decided in the final seconds. Very exciting weekend for Jumbo nation, gotta capitalize!

Had to fire up my account to drop in and give kudos and love to JumboMumbo. His prognosticating ability have impressed the powers that be of the D3 Boards, and I've received multiple pings about his work. Gives me great pride in seeing the torch passed and continue on, even if he supports sweaty carolina blue and brown uniforms.

Keep up the great work!

Thanks Walzy and thank you spring street for highlighting that I have more work to do before I can take any victory laps. With that being said, new jumbomumbo odds have dropped on NESCAC player of the year.

Gyimesi just earned his 3rd NESCAC player of the week honors, while Regan and Morgan each have 2.

Mumbo's NESCAC POTY odds are hot off the press:

Gyimesi: +110
Regan: +135
Morgan: +1000

Before Hank's agent starts throwing shade at me, I think someone previously had explained why his odds are low - NESCAC POTY almost exclusively goes to regular season #1 or #2 team, and that's almost certainly going to be Tufts and Wesleyan. He can come at me, but he also will have to have a better story this time to get these odds below +300

[nescac1]

1.  Great to see Walzy here -- but also, amazing pull from SpringSt7

2. I wish I could put 100 bucks on Morgan with those odds.  In four league games, Morgan is averaging and insane 28.3 ppg on 62/52/92 splits, with only 1 TOPG, and is accounting for an insane 41 percent of his team's points.  Again, there is a long way to go, and that pace is almost impossible to sustain, but that's on pace for easily the best offensive performance in league history.

Regan and Gyimesi are having worthy POTY years, and there is a good chance Morgan drops back to the pack, but if his final numbers are anything close to that, I feel very good about his chances.  I note that he's a senior and coaches will give the benefit of the doubt to a senior, as well, if it ends up being close between Morgan and Gyimesi. 

I get how the top player usually comes from a top team (and Hamilton way well end up finishing in the top 3-4, in all events), but I really can't think of many examples in which a player who was clearly the best statistical player lost out to a player with a clearly weaker case from a better team.  There is, unsurprisingly, a strong correlation between the best individual player in NESCAC and the best few teams in the conference.  Especially back in the days when Williams, Amherst and Midd were crushing everyone else.   

Ajayi > Hausman is the only one I can even think of that fits the bill, and Hausman had already won POTY so I imagine the coaches weren't exciting to give him back-to-back if there was another strong candidate.  Is there any other time in which someone having anything approaching a statistical season like Morgan is having to date failed to win POTY?  And even looking at last year, David Murray (deservedly) won POTY on a third place team that lost in the first round of the NESCAC tourney.  Trinity had a dominant year as a team, and Trinity had two strong individual POTY candidates, but the coaches picked - correctly - the best individual player from a far lesser team. 

And again, looking at the list of players, other than the arguably Ajayi - Hausman year, every guy who won POTY had a statistically elite individual year (even when his team did not) - Sobel, Peek, Rogers, Gilmour, Heskett, St. Amour, Hausman, Toomey, Sharry, Whittington, Schultz (just going back to 2010), most of those dudes were first or second team all-Americans. 

[jumbomumbo]

1.  Great to see Walzy here -- but also, amazing pull from SpringSt7

2. I wish I could put 100 bucks on Morgan with those odds.  In four league games, Morgan is averaging and insane 28.3 ppg on 62/52/92 splits, with only 1 TOPG, and is accounting for an insane 41 percent of his team's points.  Again, there is a long way to go, and that pace is almost impossible to sustain, but that's on pace for easily the best offensive performance in league history.

Regan and Gyimesi are having worthy POTY years, and there is a good chance Morgan drops back to the pack, but if his final numbers are anything close to that, I feel very good about his chances.  I note that he's a senior and coaches will give the benefit of the doubt to a senior, as well, if it ends up being close between Morgan and Gyimesi. 

I get how the top player usually comes from a top team (and Hamilton way well end up finishing in the top 3-4, in all events), but I really can't think of many examples in which a player who was clearly the best statistical player lost out to a player with a clearly weaker case from a better team.  There is, unsurprisingly, a strong correlation between the best individual player in NESCAC and the best few teams in the conference.  Especially back in the days when Williams, Amherst and Midd were crushing everyone else.   

Ajayi > Hausman is the only one I can even think of that fits the bill, and Hausman had already won POTY so I imagine the coaches weren't exciting to give him back-to-back if there was another strong candidate.  Is there any other time in which someone having anything approaching a statistical season like Morgan is having to date failed to win POTY?  And even looking at last year, David Murray (deservedly) won POTY on a third place team that lost in the first round of the NESCAC tourney.  Trinity had a dominant year as a team, and Trinity had two strong individual POTY candidates, but the coaches picked - correctly - the best individual player from a far lesser team. 

And again, looking at the list of players, other than the arguably Ajayi - Hausman year, every guy who won POTY had a statistically elite individual year (even when his team did not) - Sobel, Peek, Rogers, Gilmour, Heskett, St. Amour, Hausman, Toomey, Sharry, Whittington, Schultz (just going back to 2010), most of those dudes were first or second team all-Americans. 

Nescac1 has just moved the markets with a very compelling argument. The NESCAC POTY markets seem to be catching some volatility, and not even these markets are sheltered from today's rough NASDAQ opening.

Morgan is a very good player and there appears to be some consolidation at the top. This weekend, and how Morgan plays against Tufts, will be massive for all 3 players and their teams.

Gyimesi: +150
Regan: +200
Morgan: +350

[Pat Coleman]

Amherst College @ Springfield College
Amherst -26.5 (-110)
Springfield +26.5 (-110)
O/U: 153.0 (-110)

Props
Jayde Dawson FGAs Vs. Springfield Team 3pt FG Made
Dawson -9.0 (-125)
Springfield +9.0 (-105)

Will Coach Hixon win his 776th game tonight?
Yes (-5000)
No (+2500)

Diego Magana FGA
Over: 1.5 (-115)
Under: 1.5 (-115)

We can only hope jumbomumbo's handicapping career ends more illustriously

Hilarious to think of someone on this board giving Walzy shade considering what Walzy does professionally!

[RollConts25]

In an effort to front run names - I will try to take a stab at what will probably be the hardest to predict weekend of the nescac schedule. The only 2 things I am confident in this weekend are a Hamilton sweep of the Maine teams, and conn losing 2 games by a combined 40 or so points.

Jumbomumbo NESCAC prediction record to date: 13-2 (unfortunately I didn't post predictions in week 1, only discovered this newfound fun after my guy names posted and I encourage more of you to do the same)

Friday:
50 Conn - Trinity 64
57 Bates - Williams 66 (hooray!)
64 Amherst - Colby 80
77 Hamilton - Bowdoin 65
69 Tufts - wesleyan 68

Saturday:
60 Tufts - Trinity 51
70 Amherst - Bowdoin 67
55 Conn - Wesleyan 82
72 Hamilton - Colby 70
66 Bates - Midd 72

I'm obviously going to have tufts projected to win both games this weekend because I'm a super fan, but would take 1-1 on the weekend and that's probably the "most likely" outcome. Massey thinks we're going 0-2, but Mumbo has already proven that's just a algorithm - it couldn't even name a single player out there.

Tufts has a recent history with both Wesleyan and Trinity. Trinity could very well be our "modern day" rival. We pumped them in the regular season in 2022 only for them to hand it to us at home in the NESCAC Qfinals. The games are very chippy and very defensive oriented.  They beat us 3 times last year, and the boys will be  out for revenge.

Wesleyan, on the other hand, is almost always a very close game decided in the final seconds. Very exciting weekend for Jumbo nation, gotta capitalize!

Had to fire up my account to drop in and give kudos and love to JumboMumbo. His prognosticating ability have impressed the powers that be of the D3 Boards, and I've received multiple pings about his work. Gives me great pride in seeing the torch passed and continue on, even if he supports sweaty carolina blue and brown uniforms.

Keep up the great work!

Thanks Walzy and thank you spring street for highlighting that I have more work to do before I can take any victory laps. With that being said, new jumbomumbo odds have dropped on NESCAC player of the year.

Gyimesi just earned his 3rd NESCAC player of the week honors, while Regan and Morgan each have 2.

Mumbo's NESCAC POTY odds are hot off the press:

Gyimesi: +110
Regan: +135
Morgan: +1000

Before Hank's agent starts throwing shade at me, I think someone previously had explained why his odds are low - NESCAC POTY almost exclusively goes to regular season #1 or #2 team, and that's almost certainly going to be Tufts and Wesleyan. He can come at me, but he also will have to have a better story this time to get these odds below +300

Hahahahaha. Mumbo I gotta say, I like you. Your posts are great. I actually don't have an argument against you right now after the updated odds. Both Gyimesi and Regan are having great, POTY-caliber years and their teams are doing better than Hamilton in league play so far, so I like those odds. Wish I could have smashed those odds when they were at +1000 though lol. We'll have a better outlook after this weekend how Wesleyan and Tufts compare, and where Hamilton stands in comparison to the rest of the conference. To me it will be hard not to give it to Hank if he keeps up this historic offensive season and/or if Hamilton wins 7+ games in league play.

I do have a question for anyone more well-versed than me on Wesleyan basketball this year. I have only caught a few of their games, but from what I watched, it seemed to me that the point guard Johnson was their catalyst on offense, their leader, and their all-around best player. Regan is undoubtedly their best scorer, and one of the best in the whole league, but would you guys say he's their best player? Again, have only caught a few Wesleyan games all year so this is an honest question.

[jumbomumbo]

In an effort to front run names - I will try to take a stab at what will probably be the hardest to predict weekend of the nescac schedule. The only 2 things I am confident in this weekend are a Hamilton sweep of the Maine teams, and conn losing 2 games by a combined 40 or so points.

Jumbomumbo NESCAC prediction record to date: 13-2 (unfortunately I didn't post predictions in week 1, only discovered this newfound fun after my guy names posted and I encourage more of you to do the same)

Friday:
50 Conn - Trinity 64
57 Bates - Williams 66 (hooray!)
64 Amherst - Colby 80
77 Hamilton - Bowdoin 65
69 Tufts - wesleyan 68

Saturday:
60 Tufts - Trinity 51
70 Amherst - Bowdoin 67
55 Conn - Wesleyan 82
72 Hamilton - Colby 70
66 Bates - Midd 72

I'm obviously going to have tufts projected to win both games this weekend because I'm a super fan, but would take 1-1 on the weekend and that's probably the "most likely" outcome. Massey thinks we're going 0-2, but Mumbo has already proven that's just a algorithm - it couldn't even name a single player out there.

Tufts has a recent history with both Wesleyan and Trinity. Trinity could very well be our "modern day" rival. We pumped them in the regular season in 2022 only for them to hand it to us at home in the NESCAC Qfinals. The games are very chippy and very defensive oriented.  They beat us 3 times last year, and the boys will be  out for revenge.

Wesleyan, on the other hand, is almost always a very close game decided in the final seconds. Very exciting weekend for Jumbo nation, gotta capitalize!

Had to fire up my account to drop in and give kudos and love to JumboMumbo. His prognosticating ability have impressed the powers that be of the D3 Boards, and I've received multiple pings about his work. Gives me great pride in seeing the torch passed and continue on, even if he supports sweaty carolina blue and brown uniforms.

Keep up the great work!

Thanks Walzy and thank you spring street for highlighting that I have more work to do before I can take any victory laps. With that being said, new jumbomumbo odds have dropped on NESCAC player of the year.

Gyimesi just earned his 3rd NESCAC player of the week honors, while Regan and Morgan each have 2.

Mumbo's NESCAC POTY odds are hot off the press:

Gyimesi: +110
Regan: +135
Morgan: +1000

Before Hank's agent starts throwing shade at me, I think someone previously had explained why his odds are low - NESCAC POTY almost exclusively goes to regular season #1 or #2 team, and that's almost certainly going to be Tufts and Wesleyan. He can come at me, but he also will have to have a better story this time to get these odds below +300

Hahahahaha. Mumbo I gotta say, I like you. Your posts are great. I actually don't have an argument against you right now after the updated odds. Both Gyimesi and Regan are having great, POTY-caliber years and their teams are doing better than Hamilton in league play so far, so I like those odds. Wish I could have smashed those odds when they were at +1000 though lol. We'll have a better outlook after this weekend how Wesleyan and Tufts compare, and where Hamilton stands in comparison to the rest of the conference. To me it will be hard not to give it to Hank if he keeps up this historic offensive season and/or if Hamilton wins 7+ games in league play.

I do have a question for anyone more well-versed than me on Wesleyan basketball this year. I have only caught a few of their games, but from what I watched, it seemed to me that the point guard Johnson was their catalyst on offense, their leader, and their all-around best player. Regan is undoubtedly their best scorer, and one of the best in the whole league, but would you guys say he's their best player? Again, have only caught a few Wesleyan games all year so this is an honest question.

I like you too, and will want you to be my son's agent once he's tearing up the NESCAC. Let's stay in touch.

I haven't watched too much Wesleyan either, but from what I remember in past years, Nicki sets the tone with that offense. "Head of the snake" if you will... I'm sure a lot of Regan's success can be attributed to having a very solid pass first point guard.

That being said, I've seen some Regan highlights this year, and he can straight up light it up. He doesn't need someone to set him up, he can create. They're up there with Hamilton guard play and opposing coaches certainly have to be very deliberate and picky with their defensive matchup plans.

Tufts has the luxury of throwing a zone at teams seemingly at random, and have shown that they'll stick to it when it's working.

[D3BBALL]

1.  Great to see Walzy here -- but also, amazing pull from SpringSt7

2. I wish I could put 100 bucks on Morgan with those odds.  In four league games, Morgan is averaging and insane 28.3 ppg on 62/52/92 splits, with only 1 TOPG, and is accounting for an insane 41 percent of his team's points.  Again, there is a long way to go, and that pace is almost impossible to sustain, but that's on pace for easily the best offensive performance in league history.

Regan and Gyimesi are having worthy POTY years, and there is a good chance Morgan drops back to the pack, but if his final numbers are anything close to that, I feel very good about his chances.  I note that he's a senior and coaches will give the benefit of the doubt to a senior, as well, if it ends up being close between Morgan and Gyimesi. 

I get how the top player usually comes from a top team (and Hamilton way well end up finishing in the top 3-4, in all events), but I really can't think of many examples in which a player who was clearly the best statistical player lost out to a player with a clearly weaker case from a better team.  There is, unsurprisingly, a strong correlation between the best individual player in NESCAC and the best few teams in the conference.  Especially back in the days when Williams, Amherst and Midd were crushing everyone else.   

Ajayi > Hausman is the only one I can even think of that fits the bill, and Hausman had already won POTY so I imagine the coaches weren't exciting to give him back-to-back if there was another strong candidate.  Is there any other time in which someone having anything approaching a statistical season like Morgan is having to date failed to win POTY?  And even looking at last year, David Murray (deservedly) won POTY on a third place team that lost in the first round of the NESCAC tourney.  Trinity had a dominant year as a team, and Trinity had two strong individual POTY candidates, but the coaches picked - correctly - the best individual player from a far lesser team. 

And again, looking at the list of players, other than the arguably Ajayi - Hausman year, every guy who won POTY had a statistically elite individual year (even when his team did not) - Sobel, Peek, Rogers, Gilmour, Heskett, St. Amour, Hausman, Toomey, Sharry, Whittington, Schultz (just going back to 2010), most of those dudes were first or second team all-Americans. 

Nescac1 has just moved the markets with a very compelling argument. The NESCAC POTY markets seem to be catching some volatility, and not even these markets are sheltered from today's rough NASDAQ opening.

Morgan is a very good player and there appears to be some consolidation at the top. This weekend, and how Morgan plays against Tufts, will be massive for all 3 players and their teams.

Gyimesi: +150
Regan: +200
Morgan: +350

Regan is a senior as well.
With the exception of shots taken per game, which Morgan leads by 3-4 shots per game, stats are about the same. Gyimesi leads clearly in rebounding and surprisingly in assists over the other 2. Morgan leads in steals. The rest are about the same. Morgan averages 28 per game, Regan 22 and Gyimesi 19. This is just conference play stats. IMO both Gyimesi and Morgan are better defenders as well. It's a 2 player race unless either tufts or Wesleyan falls apart and Hamilton goes on a run. Hamilton still has Conn, tufts on the road and William and Middlebury at home. Anything can happen with Colby or even bowdoin on the road. Going 2 and 2 against the first 4 would be very good, but not enough to tilt the scales. Very good chance either Wesleyan or Tufts goes undefeated, which just cements it as a 2 horse race for gyimesi or Regan.

[D3BBALL]

Was at the Trinity Wesleyan game and watched a number of others. Nicky Johnson is a fabulous player, I think he has a shot to be first or second team all 4 years, which says a lot. But he can be defended. Regan is the best player, he controls the game and scores at all levels, moves the ball and doesn't try and do too much. Plus he played the entire second half against Trinity and the only thing didn't do well was go 1 for 4 from the line.
As a team Wesleyan is pretty well balance, bigs are not great down low but can shoot from the outside, defend and box out, nothing spectacular, but nothing to hurt either. The bench plays well and Reilly just knows how to coach. Totally out coached Cosgrove. Like any team if Johnson or Regan get hurt they are not the same.

[Pat Coleman]

New Top 25 is out. Wesleyan No. 1:
https://d3hoops.com/top25/men/2024-25/week8

[jumbomumbo]

New Top 25 is out. Wesleyan No. 1:
https://d3hoops.com/top25/men/2024-25/week8

I believe some of these UAA rankings are inflated. Tufts beat NYU to make the sweet 16 last year and lost less than they did. Also, all UAA teams flopped last year in the tournament.

Also the most dangerous potential NCAA team (has to win NEWMAC) not receiving votes has to be Babson. They've beaten WPI, Trinity, Case Western