MBB: NESCAC

[eclinchy]

TOs in garbage time are a misleading stat, because the people you're passing to are freshmen who don't have the same ball-handling skills that Olson's floormates do.  It's a lot easier to turn the ball over as a third- or fourth-string PG.

There's probably something to this theory, but turnovers aren't charged to the point guard if they're the fault of the pass recipient.

Right, but "fault" is a really subjective term.  If you're D.J. Carcieri and you fire a decent bounce pass at Brandon Jones, you're probably not going to commit a turnover -- Jones is one of the most athletic guys in the league, and he's going to do whatever it takes to get to that ball.  If you fire that exact same pass at Brian Lundeen, and he's not quite as quick as Jones would have been, a good defender might swoop in and take the ball away.  Obviously this is just a hypothetical, but chances are, it won't be clear who's at "fault" in a situation like that.

Ball handling is the same way.  If Mike Holsey's hands aren't quite as quick as Dan Wheeler's, all it takes is a split second of hesitation and someone could pick off a pass.  Knowing who to blame is a murky area.

[hoopjunkie]

I would`nt give Olson the player of the year just yet. There are some guys that could give him a run for his money . I don`t want to predict to early .
Also Dave Shepard had a very good junior year for Tufts & a very mediocre senior year . I think that  led to Tufts inconsistancy . I hope your right Eclinchy, about Matt Gavin being a good point guard for the Jumbos . The Jumbos will be tough with Peirce & Weitzen ,but I think the keys for their success is :

Pat Sullivan at 6`9" being an inside force
Ryan Okeefe improving his shot selection
point guard being handled by Black , Gavin & Ross

[eclinchy]

Shep as a junior was known for his clutch shooting as well as his ability as a point guard, and I think that changed the following year.  With Pierce's arrival as a dominant scorer, they had to rely on Shep a lot less for his shooting and a lot more for his role as a distributor, and I think he did a fine job at that.  I think he made the people around him (especially Pierce and Jake Weitzen) better, so for that, I wouldn't call him mediocre.

As for your three keys to the Jumbos' success, I think you're right on the money with all three.

The point guard burden rests mainly with Black.  Ross Trethewey has never played a ton of minutes, and Galvin will probably take a little while to ease into things, so Black will probably have to take over the point the vast majority of the time, at least to start the season.  He'll probably do fine -- he may even be more talented athletically than Shep -- but it takes a long time to develop the intangibles that Shep had, being a three-year starter and two-year captain (the experience, the awareness, the intelligence... all that stuff comes with time).

The O'Keefe one might be tricky.  I agree that his shot selection could be better (in fact I think I just mentioned that in my last post), and I don't know whether we'll see any change there or not.  With the team's three leading scorers all returning, you have to suspect that the offensive sets might not change much.

The "inside force" issue.  Ohhhh boy.  This one scares me.  Part of the problem with Tufts is that they've lost their best big man three years in a row (Stovell, then Martin, now Fitz).  They can never establish any consistency there because it's just quick fix after quick fix.  And Sullivan doesn't seem to be as athletic as any of those other three guys.  While I do think he'll probably end up starting the season in the starting five, I have to wonder how many minutes he'll really get.  Keep in mind that:

1) Pierce, being 6'5" 235 himself, is bigger than Fitz ever was, so he could conceivably play center a little bit.  That does take away his outside shot if he's the big man in the paint, but he is a great rebounder, so they could use him down low.  Putting Pierce at center frees up a spot in the lineup for Dave Beyel to play forward, and Beyel might be good enough to start as a sophomore.

2) Tom Selby looked promising last year, at least in the precious few minutes that he got to play.  If Sheldon wants to get serious about grooming a big man who can stay in the lineup for more than one year, this is his chance.  Selby could probably stand to bulk up a little, but he's got the talent.

Anyway the big man issue is the one I worry about most... I think Black and O'Keefe will be fine, and Sheldon has TONS of guards on his bench if he needs them (Ross, Galvin, Aaron Gallant, Reed Morgan, Dan Cook, etc).

[JeffRookie2]

The biggest problem with Tufts last year was their defense. The Jumbos could score, but the problem was that anybody could score on them. And now they are losing two inside guys in Brian Kumf and Brian Fitzgerald, which should only exacerbate the problem. The number one issue for Tufts next season is going to be establishing some sort of defensive gameplan. Shepard was both small and slow, so maybe Black will be an improvement on perimeter defense, but other than that, I can't see any reason why they should get better rather than worse.

[mrmike88]

Playing (a largely uninformed) devil's advocate again...

I think we need to look at the adjustment Tufts had to make after losing Martin.  Certainly, as an outsider and as someone who was only able to see the Jumbos on Jumbocast last year, I can't say for certain what was wrong with the D, but its clear the team suffered without a dominant defender in the post last season.  Now two years removed from the Thunder Era, I wouldn't be surprised if Coach Sheldon takes a look at what happened this season and devises a better defensive scheme to make up for that lack.  The guys on the floor know what adjustments they have to make as well.  Basketball is a team sport; you can still get the job done on D without a lock-down individual as long as everybody plays together.  It's harder, but I would not be stunned at all to see those opponent's scoring numbers to go down next season even without a dominant defender, since the guys have all had one year to adjust.

[nescac1]

I pretty much agree with the other posters' early predictions.  Tufts always seems to underperform when expectations are high and overperform when less is expected, so they could be a dark horse to do some damage, as they play well with a chip on their shoulder.  Black, remember, was first team all state NY as a H.S. senior (Shalvoy was fifth team), and has really struggled with injuries, but could be ready to break out as a senior.  But, the four other contenders all have experienced huge bodies (Amherst, many, Williams, Geoghegan / Weisbrot, Midd, Smith, and Trinity, Martin / Dunn) who will be tough for Tufts to deal with.  Still, Tufts can score on anyone, and a lineup of Pierce / Weitzen / Black / O'Keefe / Beyel would give them five guys who can get their own shot and drain 3's, which is not easy to defend, even if Tufts would be severely undersized. 

Amherst is likely pre-season number one in the country, of course.  Williams obviously looks great ... the starting five should, if healthy, be a lot better next year with a healthy Rose, and if Schultz and Geoghegan make the typical frosh-to-sophmore improvement.  If Geoghegan, in particular, can get stronger and learn to stay out of foul trouble, he will be one of the most effective big guys in the league as he can already board and has very nice moves inside.  Williams will also be much, much deeper than they have been since the national title year, the only question will be who gets playing time.  Weisbrot (if at all healthy), Golia, and Rubin are probably the top three of the bench as all played well late last season, and solid role players like Hanifin, Meyer, a talented group of rising soph big guys (Hardy, Cates, Timmins -- whoever develops fastest), and possibly a freshman (Whittington seems to be most likely candidate) will fight it out for the last 1-2 spots in the rotation.   Much like recent Amherst teams, some very talented frosh and sophomores will be relegated to mop-up duty.  Trinity is sort of the opposite of Tufts, they have tons of size and will have an incredibly tough inside game, but the question is, who will hit perimeter shots to keep defenses honest?  Outside of Hasiuk, no pure shooters among the perimeter guys.   Midd I expect to be about the same, capable of both surpising wins and surprising losses. 

The back of the league looks pretty brutal this year ... unless Colby, Bates or Wesleyan have amazing impact frosh coming in, all could struggle after each losing their two star players.   

[hoopjunkie]

Nescac 1 great post - Tufts was too cocky last year with early prediction of #12 in the country, based on a great previous season . True they lost only one player Dan  Martin but he was 6`9" & a very high percentage scorer . Tufts had no big man to take over defensively . Fitz was always in foul trouble & only averaged 5.4 rebounds a game . Weitzen was the leading rebounder with 7.4 rebounds a game but  he is only 6"3" !!
Peirce at 6`5" is not a center . He is not even a power forward . He has no hands & no lower body strength . He is athletic & a good shooter from 3 . I honestly think some of last years seniors were very overrated & that for the Jumbos to be successful they have to have good seasons from Pat Sullivan , Tom Selby 6`7" sophmore & a point guard .
I think Amherst & Williams will be the class of the league with Tufts battling Middlebury & Trinity for the mioddle of the pack . Even Conn College has done a great job recuiting & could be dangerous .

[eclinchy]

Weitzen was the leading rebounder with 7.4 rebounds a game but  he is only 6"3" !!

You think Jake's impressive, but look at Kyle Jackson at Bowdoin... top-10 rebounder in the NESCAC as a sophomore, and the kid's 6'3" and 185!

At least Weitzen has strength to make up for the height he lacks.  Back when Thunder posted here, he used to talk about Weitzen's leg strength, and how that made it impossible to box out against him because you just couldn't move him.  That's a huge factor in being a good rebounder... lower body strength.

(Which happens to be the same factor you cite when talking about Pierce, who I think has more 'center' in him than you give him credit for.  Cut him some slack... he was sixth in the league in blocks.)

[hoopjunkie]

Peirce is very athletic. no question about it . However I don`t think he is a good defender . I hope he improves on D . i think he is better suited for small forward . he gets pushed off the blocks too easily . I think 6`9" Pat Sullivan could be the solution . He has a nice shooting touch & has very long arms . If he get 6-8 rebounds a game & contributes 6-8 points a game Tufts will be competative with the elite teams in the country .
Does anyone know about new Tufts recuit Sam Mason ? I just know he is 6`5" guard /forward .

[Agent_Zero]

hoopjunkie, did you watch pierce play last year? no hands and no lower body strength?? i watched nearly every tufts game and i cant even count how many times i saw him come up with a ball in traffic or fend off defenders with his strength long enough to get the ball from guards who failed at getting both him and weitzen the ball when they needed it. he actually has excellent hands. and your right, he is best suited for a small forward position because of his size, strength, and ability to shoot. and again with your quote about his D, if you watched tufts play at all last year, you know that opposing GUARDS killed them with huge games. The only big man to have a huge game against them was Cohen and pierce wasnt even on him most of the game. Guards penetrating into the middle is what hurt the jumbos all of last year. check the tapes, pierce bailed people out on d alot of the time with his athleticism and shot blocking ability(previously referenced by someone else). granted, he doesnt put the same effort into his D that he does on offense but i have a feeling he will come around and having played with him a lot this summer, that has been his focus. also pierce rarely gets pushed off the block, 70% of his scoring came from within the paint last year, again something you might notice if you watched tufts basketball. Which you obviously dont if you think Pat Sullivan is the answer to anything. He has zero work ethic(hasnt been in the gym but once or twice since the season ended), is soft, and has a terrible attitude. but yea, im sure hes the answer. So the jumbos will rely on pierce even more next year. but he will prolly need to get lucky again, because thats what he must have been this year to average 16.5 and 6 with "no hands and no lower body strength". eclinchy, im surprised you didnt point any of this out to your esteemed friend hoopjunkie. or do you share his beliefs? i KNOW you saw pierce play almost every game.

ps...sam mason is out of exeter. quick, athletic, shoots the ball well, and fits very well into the tufts game plan. should be a nice compliment to what dave beyel should bring to the table.

[ephoops]

Regarding Tufts, if Galvin can come in and establish himself as a floor leader (granted, this may be asking way too much from a freshman), then I think that Tufts can compete with Williams for the #2 spot in the conference. 

Galvin comes from a good program in the NYC Catholic league (Regis) and has experience playing in big games (his team won a state championship when he was a junior).  Galvin is very smart (Regis is an all scholarship school that attracts the brightest kids from NYC, Long Island, Westchester and NJ) and he was a true point guard / floor general in high school.

He needs to bring that winning attitude to Tufts and not get dragged down by some of the current players who don't work hard.

[eclinchy]

Galvin can come in and establish himself as a floor leader (granted, this may be asking way too much from a freshman)

I agree -- it is asking way too much.  While Tufts may not quite be Amherst in this regard, they're still not big on giving tons of minutes to freshmen.  Beyel and Gallant each had decent freshman years as the eighth or ninth man, but that's about it, over the past two years.  I think the last time Sheldon let a freshman start was when Ryan filled in for an injured Kumf in January '05, correct me if I'm wrong.

That being said, I have no problems with looking to Black to be the "floor leader" this team needs.  I especially like Black given his defensive abilities.  Look at the criticism Tufts has gotten in this thread over the past few days... Shepherd was too slow?  Guards killed them with big games?  They need a floor general?  It looks like Jeremy Black solves all of these problems.

eclinchy, im surprised you didnt point any of this out to your esteemed friend hoopjunkie. or do you share his beliefs? i KNOW you saw pierce play almost every game.

pierce bailed people out on d alot of the time with his athleticism and shot blocking ability(previously referenced by someone else).

You just answered your own question.  That "someone else" was me.

As for the Sullivan issue, I'm not that big on him either, but I'm staying optimistic.  He's never really seen consistent playing time in college, and I'm hoping that he kicks it up a notch and has a breakout year, now that he's bound to see an increased role.  So far, he's probably the least physical 6'9" guy in the nation, but that could change.

Agent_Zero, since you're calling me out specifically, I have to ask: do I know you?  You're right that I've seen a lot of Tufts games -- I've been to every single home game over the past two years, plus five away games (the 3OT at MIT, the Williams NESCAC game, and all three Amherst games last year) -- but as far as I know, I've never met an Agent_Zero...

But I agree with pretty much every word you said.  And I'm happy to hear that Pierce is working on getting better defensively... thanks for the inside information.

[Agent_Zero]

eclinchy, i didnt mean for it too sound like i was "calling you out." i just know you are another tufts fan on this board who i was looking for support from, as opposed to hoopjunkie who says he is a tufts fan but he must be one that watches completely different games than i do. anyway, to answer your question, this is my first year at tufts but i was able to attend nearly every game (what can i say, im a big fan already) and fortunately im good friends with a couple guys on the team, hence the inside info on pierce who ive seen in the gym at tufts almost everyday this summer. and alot of those days he is doing defensive drills. on the sullivan issue, there is a reason hes never gotten consistent playing time in college. its cuz he doesnt really want it. and that is unfortunate but true so save your optimism for players like galvin and mason. besides, sullivan is the 4th big man next year anyway, behind weitzen, pierce, and selby, who at least looks like he gives a damn. in an earlier post, someone referenced the fact that tufts has no size and few post players. well looking at the nescac, who really has great big man play or great size for that matter? its a league of guards who shoot off other guards who penetrate. Tufts was abused by Cohen at the end of the season but other than that, what big man, especially within the league gave them issues? and they outrebounded teams last year by a decent margin, if i remember correctly. so im not sure why anyone brings up size as an issue for this team. they have pierce and weitzen, two of the best low post scorers in the league who also both rebound. so if they stay out of foul trouble, which neither one really had an issue with this past season, i dont see the paint being an issue. as i mentioned earlier, its about guards stopping penetration and keeping the ball out of the middle. sheperd and okeefe both had serious injuries last year that most likely effected their ability to play D. black was hurt for the last couple weeks of the season. that being said, the guards have to make a bigger commitment to ball pressure and pierce and selby, when he plays, have to make commitments to weakside help.

[fpc85]

well looking at the nescac, who really has great big man play or great size for that matter? its a league of guards who shoot off other guards who penetrate.

playing in the post is really about "willingness" to play in post. pierce and weitzen have a perimeter mentality on both ends of the floor. the top 3 teams (amherst, williams and trinity) have the best post players. a mjor reason why amherst is better than those teams is b/c they control the paint b/c they can go 5 deep in the post. no other team comes close.

they have pierce and weitzen, two of the best low post scorers in the league who also both rebound. so if they stay out of foul trouble, which neither one really had an issue with this past season.

you can't win consistently with only two quality post players. back to back games are tough on post players. every quality team in the last 7-8 years had at least 3 good post players...dominant teams have 4.

[mrmike88]

I went back to look at the box scores because I was curious about agent_zero's claim that guards beat the Jumbos last season.

In Tufts' 10 NESCAC games (9 regular season and one postseason), only two legitimate post players gave them issues.  In addition to Cohen, Robert Kelly of Wesleyan had a big game against the Jumbos.  But in R. Kelly's case, I would say it was to be expected, since he basically was the Cardinals' offense last year.

For the rest of the games, agent is right, the backcourts generally dominated the box scores - look at Shalvoy's line particularly in the first round of the NESCAC tourney last season.