MBB: NESCAC

[nescac hoops]

Nescac Hoops-Are you a parent of a player on Williams or a fomer player? The reason I ask is because of your insight into the performance of the team so far. You clearly follow this team.  You should know that I too follow the team and am a big fan as well and I believe that Williams could have a great season.

However, listing Nescac all-star teams at this point is lunacy unless you have some other agenda.

Bluesky,

I am not a parent, thank god. I am an alum. I played for a couple years in the 90s. My NESCAC all-first semester teams was not out of a personal agenda but merely to spark conversation about the upcoming NESCAC conference games. I made it pretty clear that it was merely based on November and December. I'm sorry you saw this as "lunacy" but if you would rather talk about the posts leading up to my all first semester teams like what Kevin Hopkins eats for breakfast or what percentage of the population has heard of Williams and Amherst then please feel free to restart those topics. Come February, I expect Rose and Shalvoy to be running on all cylinders but I still think Joe G. has a shot to be a second teamer. I would expect Olson to be the POY but he has some really stiff competition with how Pierce from Tufts is playing. These were things I don't think a lot of NESCAC fans, aside from a few Tufts fans, saw coming.  My only agenda was to talk about basketball when there are no games being played during finals to talk about.

My insight is from alums who have seen a couple games and friends who are coaches at other d3 schools who have scouted the Williams team.

My own observation is that there is significant talent on the bench which has yet to be utilized. Unless I am missing something, it is either due to Paulsen's inability to change his rotation or figure out what is should be.

As for you...I will guess you are a parent. Specifically, a parent of a skilled player not getting a lot of time. I would say Dodson but I remember you last year being a "prophet" predicting the talent of the Williams '10 class. Ill go with Cates or Rubin?

[Bluesky]

Nescac hoops:

No, I am not a parent, thank God. My comments both this season and last are from my observations as a former college player. I follow the team because a family member went to Williams.

I hope you are right about Rose and Shalvoy. They certainly have the talent and experience. In fact, I think either one of them could be the POY. You may recall one of my posts from last season in which I argued that Shalvoy was better than Olsen considering what each does for his team.

What do you think of the schedule and its impact down the road?

As you can see from my earlier posts, I am high on the 2010 class which includes not only Blake Schultz and Joe G, but Hardy, Rubin, Cates and Schiffman. Slice it anyway you want but this is in my opinion a very talented class and the heart and depth of this team along with Weisbrot, Meyer and Golia. From the 2011 class, Dodson and Whittington provide further skilled depth. My only point was that Paulsen needs to settle on a rotation that gives this team true depth and the best chance of being the best that they can be.

[fpc85]

Early take on the NESCAC
1. Amherst- deepest and most talented team. Enough said.

2. Williams- They won the NESCAC playoffs last year so I guess they belong here though I do have some doubts. I think the last year's run was an abberation. We shall see.

3. Tufts- They play the Jeffs tough every year... But don't win. Pierce is a beast. Can they win the game they have to win? They have not gotten it done in the past.

4. Trinity- Tough team. Superior team defense. The Jeffs are about .500 since '04 against this team. Can they make enough outside shots?

5. Middlebury- Sleeper team? they could finish in the top 3.

6-7 Conn, Colby, Bowdoin- flip a coin

Wes and Bates- Fodder for all the others.

[hoopjunkie]

I agree with you fpc85 . I question Williams as well . Especially with their marshmellow  schedule coming up . Lehman & CCNY come on now !!  I do believe their lack of quality opponents will hurt them in the Nescac . I also rate Middlebury 4 ahead of Trinity . I don`t think Trinity has enough scoring punch in the backcourt .
Defensively they are tough. I think Middlebury is for real, but are a year away from the top 3 spots. 
Tufts has really been the suprise so far . With alot of contribution from more players then expected & the toughest non-conference schedlue in the Nescac . This should help them throughout conference play . Lets see if this is the year they knock off Amherst after losing to then in OT the last 3 games against them . It does`nt help that the game in at Amherst .
Question for all : How many points is home court worth in the Nescac ? I think about 5

[eclinchy]

Question for all : How many points is home court worth in the Nescac ? I think about 5

I'm gonna say about 3.8.

Here's what two minutes of poking around with Excel can do...

Away      Home   
Colby   93   Midd   100
Trinity   68   Bates   63
Amherst   96   Tufts   92
Bowdoin   64   Will   69
Conn.   61   Wes   62
Colby   55   Will   62
Bowdoin   58   Midd   81
Amherst   79   Bates   64
Trinity   85   Tufts   102
Wes   55   Colby   75
Conn.   46   Bowdoin   74
Midd   73   Amherst   79
Will   62   Trinity   65
Wes   63   Bowdoin   61
Conn.   57   Colby   60
Midd   67   Trinity   82
Tufts   44   Bates   72
Will   51   Amherst   72
Tufts   63   Conn.   56
Trinity   69   Bowdoin   75
Amherst   69   Colby   58
Bates   59   Wes   56
Amherst   73   Bowdoin   55
Bates   65   Conn.   82
Tufts   94   Wes   69
Trinity   77   Colby   68
Will   86   Midd   79
Tufts   91   Midd   102
Conn.   49   Amherst   91
Bates   54   Will   67
Wes   57   Trinity   95
Wes   56   Amherst   81
Bates   81   Midd   48
Tufts   82   Will   65
Conn.   47   Trinity   62
Bowdoin   67   Colby   81
Colby   63   Bates   62
Bowdoin   84   Tufts   94
Midd   64   Wes   58
Will   61   Conn.   55
Will   80   Wes   65
Bowdoin   66   Bates   58
Colby   89   Tufts   84
Midd   69   Conn.   59
Amherst   59   Trinity   62
AwayAvg   67.8   HomeAvg 71.6

[Rick Vaughn]

Speaking of homecourt advantage...The only NESCAC games that were not in Williamstown were Williams-Amherst at Amherst.  With the exception of the football team against Trinity, NOBODY comes to Williams home basketball games.  Is this a common trend or I am wrong thinking that home court is not that big of a deal.  I'd say that the trip to Maine would have the biggest impact, but only on the middle tier teams.  When a good Williams, Amherst, or Trinity team heads to Maine they are most likely going to prevail.  Home court in a non rivalry game is pretty insignificant is the sense I get. 

[NY hoopster]

Hoopjunkie;

Middlebury will lose seniors Harris and Walsh after this year, who provide alot of offensive punch. Smith is healthy, and Rudin will be starting for a third year at point guard. Just curious as to why you think they are "a year away from being in the top 3"; I think their best run at the top may be with this years crew- your thoughts?

[eclinchy]

Everyone loses talented seniors.  It's all relative though -- all that matters is that you lose less talent than your competitors, and keep more.

Middlebury loses Harris and Walsh.  How does that senior class compare to:

Amherst (Olson, Hopkins, Jones, Goldsmith, Coulibaly, Walters);
Williams (Rose, Shalvoy);
Tufts (Weitzen, O'Keefe, Black, Sullivan);
Trinity (Martin, Taylor, Hasiuk);
or Conn (Stone, Young, Mosley)?

That, on top of the fact that Rudin and Smith are among the league's best juniors, and ALSO considering that Coghlan is only going to get better with a year of experience, makes it pretty clear that yes, Middlebury is in much better position for a top-3 spot next year than they are now.

[nescac hoops]

Speaking of homecourt advantage...The only NESCAC games that were not in Williamstown were Williams-Amherst at Amherst.  With the exception of the football team against Trinity, NOBODY comes to Williams home basketball games.  Is this a common trend or I am wrong thinking that home court is not that big of a deal. 

While this may seem elementary, I guess I will explain. The more success a team has, the more people come out to watch. This is true at any level. The last couple years have not been pretty in Williamstown and Williams only started playing good basketball in the second semester of alst year. I expect there to be more students/fans in the stands by the time conference play comes around in January. In '03-'04 when Williams went to the national title game, Williams brought in the most fans by FAR, not even including playoff and NCAA games. In conference games brought in an average of 1047. Amherst and Trinity brought in the 400s. Over the entire season, Williams averaged 877 while Amherst and Trinity were in the 400s again.

[nescac1]

Even Bowdoin loses a strong group (Hippert, Fliegal, Sargeantson, all three year starters).  Williams also loses valuable sixth man Matt Weisbrot.  Next year could be the weakest year in NESCAC in quite some time ... for the first time since probably 2001, there will probably be no obvious national contenders from the league.  After the guys on Midd, Pierce, Baskauskas, and possibly the Colby guards if they keep improving, no current juniors really stand out as all-league caliber guys.  Which should make this conference season all the more fun ... do-or-die for all the senior laden teams listed by eclinchy.  

As for Midd, they have a lot of young guys who could really develop in addition to Coughlin and the three starters they return.  Locke is 6'10 and getting quality minutes as a frosh, so you figure he could develop into quite the inside force once he adds strength and experience.  Kelleher and Wholey both got a lot of hype coming out of high school.   Dudley is another solid perimeter scorer.  With all the big guns lose, Midd may well go into next year as the conference favorite ... although Williams and Amherst will both still return a lot of talent.  

[toad22]

Assuming Williams can bring in a top flight point guard, they will be very strong next year. The sophomore class will be upper classmen, and I expect great things.

[nescac1]

I hope you are right, Toad.  Williams will certainly have incredible depth, strength and experience inside with Geoghegan, Meyer, Timmins, Whittington, Dodson, Cates and Carroll all 6'5 and over and very athletic, returning at the 4/5 spots.  I imagine Golia would start at the point next year?  He played well down the stretch last year and is shooting well this year.  Have you heard that they are recruiting other point guards to come in who might play as frosh?   

I imagine Amherst will bring in a big-time class after the national championship, especially with all the guys they lose this year and relatively small (in total numbers) classes the last few years... 

[hoopjunkie]

I just think Middlebury though talented , will not compete for the top three slots. I love Rudin at point & some of their players are fine shooters but they seem to be missing something, maybe depth . They also have some bangers but fall a little shot of Amherst , Williams & maybe Tufts or Trinity . I have not seen Middlebury play this year so maybe I`m totally off base .

[NY hoopster]

To All;
Thanks to eclinchy, nescac hoops, nescac1, Toad 22, and hoopjunkie for the response and in-depth analysis of my question regarding why Middlebury may be a year away from cracking the top three. Great insight and info.

[ephoops]

Regarding a point guard for Williams, it's interesting to note that in the 8 years that Paulsen has coached Williams, he's started two point guards:  Crotty and Shalvoy.

That track record should be appealing to a high-quality high school senior point guard who has the opportunity to start immediately as a freshman.