MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

First, not putting them in the basement ... that will be the sole custody of Wesleyan.  I will take the under on your four wins.  They don't play a ton of defense (look at opponent shooting percentages, and they've hardly faced a murderer's row), are very small up front, and rely way too much on being on from 3.   The winning shot was a fluke, but they gave up 82 points before that to a team that has no business even competing with a NESCAC squad. 

They get Midd and Williams in the first home weekend, I see them taking at best one of those games but more likely neither.  At Wesleyan, they'll probably win, but at Conn (who is clearly a much better team this season than in past years) in the second day of back-to-back road games will be very difficult for them, I don't see how they will stop Stone inside.  At Amherst and at Trinity, I'd be shocked if either is close ... Amherst will kill them and it will be hard to rebound against a much bigger and more experienced Trinity team.  At Bowdoin, they already lost to Bowdoin at home, so figure that is a likely loss.  Giving them two wins in those games (Wes and one upset over Midd, Williams or at Conn) they will have to sweep Bates and Tufts in the last weekend to get up to four wins ... not sure I see that happening.  I see them taking Bates and losing to Tufts to finish eight in the conference, but I'd be very surprised if they eclipsed Bowdoin or Conn unless they have several incredibly hot shooting nights.  Next year, Colby will likely be a first division team in a very watered down NESCAC, but the rest of the league has too much size and experience for this year's Colby squad, in my view.  Only time will tell, of course.

On a happier Colby note, nice to see Russell giving Brian Ellis a run for rookie of the year ...

[NY hoopster]

Nescac 1

Colby will be more consistent as they gel, and when Mike Russell eventually starts. He is, as you know, a freshman, Choice is only a Soph., and Cutrone never started a game before this year. Their high scoring is tough to ignore, and is not as "3" dependant as you imply. Choice, Cutrone, and Russell have interior games that are not dependant on the 3 and which account for most of their scoring.

To put the losses in perspective, they lost these three games by a total of 15 points. Ithaca beat them by 10 by shooting 59% as a team from the field. To lose to St Josephs, they had to pull out all the stops;
          1) Intentionally not cover anyone in the backcourt on the final shot
          2) Go stone cold from the foul line in crunch time
          3) Sit their starting point guard for 20 minutes (he scored 24)

As I have said here before, their success will depend on whether they are able to make defensive adjustments that will hold down those awfully high numbers being put up by underwhelming opponents. Most of the damage is being done from outside now, but as you have pointed out, they are very likely to take a beating from the bigger Nescac schools inside. That may mean that Amherst and Trinity and Williams will overwhelm them, but I think they will be competitive with every other team in the conference.

[nescac1]

Fair enough.  It's great to have Colby observers on here to break up the usual Amherst/Williams/Tufts/Trinity focus. 

I by no means meant to suggest Colby is a bad or untalented team.  I just think they are a very young, very small team that happens to be playing in a conference with a lot of very experienced, very talented frontcourts: Amherst, Trinity, Williams, Midd, Bowdoin, Conn College, Tufts, the teams I think will finish ahead of Colby, all have talented juniors and seniors (in most cases all-conference caliber players) at the 4 and 5.  With Colby bringing all but one key guy back next year, I think they will really move up once the likes of Hopkins/Jones, Rose/Weisbrot, Stone, and Weitzen graduate.  But for this year, I think the big, physical bodies will wear Colby down over the course of a NESCAC season.   I really think this will go down as the deepest and most talented group of seniors in NESCAC history, with at least a dozen to fifteen (Hopkins, Jones, Olson, F. Walters, R. Martin, R. Taylor, Rose, Shalvoy, A. Harris, Stone, J. Young, Black, Weitzen, Hippert) members of that class who could put up all-conference numbers in an ordinary year.  Next year, it will be Colby who has the experienced core returning.  It's one thing for Colby's undersized and youthful frontcourt to put up good numbers against the parade of weak teams they have been playing (losing to Elms and Bowdoin, the only really solid opponents they have faced), but I just think it will be a real struggle against league competition.  Only time will tell ...

[NY hoopster]

Nescac 1

Points well taken,and it will be interesting to see how it all develops during conference play.

And not to be picky, but Colby did beat the Elms (although it took OT to do it).

[Rick Vaughn]

Impressive win tonight by the Ephs against the Williamstown Elementary JV team.  The  Ephs opponents 0-11 record was not indicative of how good this team really was.  Another tough one tomorrow as they battle the Mt. Greylock High Freshman team.

[frank uible]

It appears that Williams is having difficulty attracting (on reasonable historical, financial terms) interesting and competitive colleges for Williams' basketball invitationals (both men's and women's) - when those invitees face the reality that they must travel overnight to the wilds of Williamstown in the harsh dead of winter with its uncertain and variable weather. This year's three men's basketaball invitees had a not entirely unforeseeable aggregate of three wins entering the invitational tournament. On the other hand yesterday Williams hosted an interesting and competitive 10 team wrestling tournament which involved several (most probably a majority) teams traveling considerable distances overnight.

[NESCACAlumn]

wow, interesting Frank

[nescac1]

Williams 12-0 heading into the meat of the schedule.  Very tough six game stretch ahead with Amherst x2, an away weekend in Maine which is never easy, Trinity and Lasell.  This will test whether the Ephs are for real. 

Tufts loses two against pretty middling opponents this weekend ... what happened?  With the losses piling up for Tufts, Trinity, Midd over the past week, all of those squads will have a very rough time making the NCAA's without winning NESCAC. 

Another tough loss for Colby -- emotional hangover perhaps?  Colby posters still feel confident about that 6-3 prediction? 

[eclinchy]

Tufts loses two against pretty middling opponents this weekend ... what happened?  With the losses piling up for Tufts, Trinity, Midd over the past week, all of those squads will have a very rough time making the NCAA's without winning NESCAC.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it the case that because Tufts' losses were out of region, they don't make a difference either way for NCAAs?  It looks to me that Tufts' weekend is discouraging, but ultimately irrelevant.  Also, note that Ryan O'Keefe sat out both games...

[Pat Coleman]

Essentially irrelevant, yes. But if they end up battling someone for an at-large bid who beat King's or Wilkes it would likely be considered.

[frank uible]

If I were playing basketball for Tufts, I believe that whether Tufts won or lost would never be irrelevant to me, irrespective of the playoff implications. At any rate the prospective likelihood that this year Tufts will be seriously considered for a playoff spot at the end of the day is no better and probably worse than mediocre.

[hoopjunkie]

If I was playing at Williams & my tournament included 3 teams that totaled 4 wins would I feel good about winning the tournament ? Tufts played against 2 very strong schools this weekend & had a starter & big scorer in Ryan Okeefe injured . A couple of young Jumbos stepped up so I`m not so depressed .

[walzy31]

Amherst -22 Vs. Wesleyan tomorrow

[eclinchy]

Good point about the young Jumbos, junkie.  A career-high 9 points for Dan Cook against Wilkes -- three shots, all threes, all good.  Also Beyel had 9 and 6 against Kings... but uh, he shot 4 for 16.

Walzy, on THAT spread, I'll take the Cardinals.

[nescac1]

Hoop junkie, I wouldn't call two teams that would likely be towards the bottom of NESCAC "very strong schools."  Nonethless, with eight straight road games, you have to wonder what Sheldon is thinking with scheduling.  Tufts has five more road games coming up after these two losses, including at Wheaton, Amherst and Trinity ... Tufts will have a tough time doing better than 3-2 during that stretch. 

What happened to O'Keefe?  Any other injuries of note with NESCAC season about to start?  The Ephs (knock on wood) seem to be pretty much healthy for the first time in years, hopefully that will continue  ...