MBB: NESCAC

[fpc85]

Agent_Zero (and any other Tufts fans who care to weigh in on this),

I've been doing a little thinking about this Pierce/Weitzen dilemma.  I think the numbers you threw out there regarding Weitzen's shot totals were really interesting, and I wanted to explore them a little bit further.

As anyone who follows this board knows, I've been one of Jake's biggest fans since day one.  He's always been an excellent passer, an excellent rebounder, and even though he's not always the quickest guy out there, his defense has been good.  He's a true all-around player in a league where you don't see all that many of those.

His FG percentages in his first three seasons were 56.2, 51.1 and 51.6.  All easily top-10 in the conference.  He's never been Tufts' leading scorer in a season, but he's always been consistent, and I've admired him for that.

His 44.7 mark this year has scared me, because I expected to see a movement in the opposite direction.  With Pierce getting better and better, he's only going to draw more coverage, which will only free up open looks for Weitzen.  But for some reason, that hasn't helped.  Weitzen's numbers have gone down.

AZ, when I saw your post, something about it didn't sit right with me.  I refused to admit that it was that simple.  In a way, it's kind of insulting to Bob Sheldon -- the man's got 298 career wins, and you think he didn't think of the "hey, let's let our leading scorer shoot more!" explanation?  There's got to be more to it than that, right?

So I dug a little bit deeper.  Here's what I realized:

When Jeremy Black takes 5 shots or less, Tufts is 0-4.
When Black takes between 6 and 8 shots, Tufts is 6-4.
When Black takes 9 shots or more, Tufts is 4-1.

When Aaron Gallant takes 5 shots or less, Tufts is 5-6.
When Gallant takes 6 shots or more, Tufts is 5-3.

When Ryan O'Keefe takes 7 shots or less, Tufts is 1-3.
When O'Keefe takes 8 shots or more, Tufts is 5-2.

When Dave Beyel takes 5 shots or less, Tufts is 6-6.
When Beyel takes 6 shots or more, Tufts is 4-3.

It turns out that Pierce is not at all alone -- all the Jumbos' scorers have the same trend.  So what does this mean?  Jake Weitzen is a terrible scorer and everyone else on the team is better than him?  No.  The real explanation is either...

...A: Stats can say anything you want if you bend them enough.  The fact is, we both chose arbitrary cutoffs for these numbers just to frame our viewpoints and make them look better.  You pointed out that Tufts is 6-2 when Pierce takes 16+ shots; you neglected to mention than they're 0-3 when he takes 15.  There's all sorts of random facts you can dig up by poking around a spreadsheet for two minutes.  They're 6-1 when Beyel makes exactly 3 buckets.  They're 5-1 when Black's missed FG are a prime number.  They're 4-0 on Tuesday.  Nobody cares.

...B: Tufts, in general, just needs to share the ball better.  Pierce alone isn't the answer; a strong team effort is.  When they crushed a strong MIT team, they had five guys in double figures.  When they came within seconds of beating Brandeis, they had four.  The team looks best in games like that, not when Pierce takes over by himself.

...or C: It's a combination of the two.  I'd bet my last dime that it's this one.

Anyway, I just realized that I've written my longest post ever about a team that's 0-5 in the NESCAC, and probably 90% of the people on this board don't have any interest in my rambling.  To those 90% I apologize; to the other 10%, I conclude by saying this.

1) Jake Weitzen is a lot better than he's recently gotten credit for.  When a career 53% shooter goes into a slump, he deserves the benefit of the doubt that he'll break out of it.  The guy's too talented not to.

2) I really, really hope the Jumbos can play like a team for these last two weeks.  One of the reasons they lost to Wesleyan was that Pierce underestimated how good Pelletier and Grayson were defensively, he took a few ill-advised shots with four hands in his face, and he went 1 for 7 in the second half.  If that doesn't happen again, Tufts will actually be a decent team down the stretch.  Pierce is a tremendously good player -- I'll never doubt that -- but he's got a lot of other talent around him and he needs to use it.

Anyway, I'm done talking about this publicly... I've wasted enough space.  If anyone wants to discuss this stuff further, my email's in my profile.  Fire away.

You can all go back to talking about teams with wins now.

this year tufts is horrible defensively.. the give up 4 more points than the next team...you can't win games that way. they certainly score enough to win but they can't get stops. i also think that jake is at his best with less minutes...like in '06. i understand the jumbos might not have a better option..but that is the second problem...they never replaced thunder dan.

[mrmike88]

eclinchy - Great post.

I think I might be able to explain your numbers in a somewhat non-arbitrary way.

Virtually across the board, it seems, Tufts is winning when their players get more shots off.  fpc is right in saying that they have been less-than-impressive on defense, and I would argue that this was the case last year too.

More shots implies a more wide-open type of a game.  If a team is getting more possessions than usual (and more shot opportunities for its players), it is likely a result of some sort of offensive success.  I bet if you go back to those games in which Pierce or Weitzen took a larger number of shots, you'll see that their team field goal % was up or they were getting a lot of offensive rebounds.  We know they aren't a great defensive team, so I'm betting that shots are up as a result of something positive on the offensive side of the ball.

Tufts wins these games because Tufts wins by outproducing an opponent on the offensive end.  Tufts rarely wins because of big defensive stops.

In the win vs. Plymouth State, for example, Tufts outrebounded PSU by 18.
Tufts had 15 offensive rebounds vs. Brandeis.
Tufts shot 59% (and almost 50% from 3-point land) vs. Babson.

[fpc85]

eclinchy - Great post.

I think I might be able to explain your numbers in a somewhat non-arbitrary way.

Virtually across the board, it seems, Tufts is winning when their players get more shots off.  fpc is right in saying that they have been less-than-impressive on defense, and I would argue that this was the case last year too.

More shots implies a more wide-open type of a game.  If a team is getting more possessions than usual (and more shot opportunities for its players), it is likely a result of some sort of offensive success.  I bet if you go back to those games in which Pierce or Weitzen took a larger number of shots, you'll see that their team field goal % was up or they were getting a lot of offensive rebounds.  We know they aren't a great defensive team, so I'm betting that shots are up as a result of something positive on the offensive side of the ball.

Tufts wins these games because Tufts wins by outproducing an opponent on the offensive end.  Tufts rarely wins because of big defensive stops.

In the win vs. Plymouth State, for example, Tufts outrebounded PSU by 18.
Tufts had 15 offensive rebounds vs. Brandeis.
Tufts shot 59% (and almost 50% from 3-point land) vs. Babson.

they need more balance....they need to play players who will give them more balance....if they have them...i don't know them well enough to know if they have those players.

[mrmike88]

I don't mind a high number of shots from offensive players if they get the job done.  I still think their main problem is they just don't have enough defensive stoppers.  Tufts can win with Pierce and Weitzen taking a high number of shots if the other three guys on the floor step it up on the other end of the court.

Also, don't hand Amherst the NESCAC title quite yet.  Conn College and Trinity are still to come.  Conn plays such a defensive style and limits possessions well.  I think Amherst will win that one but if Conn can keep the scoring down they have a legitimate shot.  Trinity has an outside shot - they'll need the Jeffs to lose to Conn, but then they would take the conference if they win out...

[fpc85]

i would be surprised if the jeffs lose 2 out of the next 3

[eclinchy]

this year tufts is horrible defensively.. the give up 4 more points than the next team...you can't win games that way. they certainly score enough to win but they can't get stops. i also think that jake is at his best with less minutes...like in '06. i understand the jumbos might not have a better option..but that is the second problem...they never replaced thunder dan.

This year?

Tufts has been dead last in team defense four years in a row.  Losing Dan is only a small part of the problem -- they weren't too much better when he was around.

Interesting point about giving Jake less minutes.  Only problem is that they haven't really groomed anyone to fill his role in the post.  The rest of the tall guys on the roster either don't play much (Selby, Harris) or spend more time shooting threes than getting rebounds and playing interior D (Beyel, Sullivan, who's freaking 6'9").

eclinchy - Great post.

Thanks.  What can I say?  Nothing like an ugly Wesleyan loss to get your mind racing.

[Agent_Zero]

clinchy, i agree that the numbers can be read a lot of ways to make a lot of different points. i was just using the numbers i threw out there after a bates game where pierce didnt get the ball in the second half to point out how he needed to get the ball more. but you are correct there are a lot of other things that go into some of reasons for tufts problems. for instance, in the two nescac weekends where the jumbos have been swept, jeremy black has scored a total of 9 points i believe(0 @ amherst, 3 @ trinity, 0 against cc, 6 against wesleyan). tough to win without getting anything from him. and your right, watching the game yesterday, i feel pierce did force some shots in the second half. however, i feel he forces shots a lot of the time and hes a gifted enough player that they have usually gone in for him this year. yesterday they just didnt fall. if im gonna live with him forcing other times, then sometimes they arent gonna go in. tough game in a long season for the jumbos that looks about to be concluded. unfortunate that the season pierce is having is being wasted by the struggles of the squad but thats how it goes.(circa stone from wesleyan in 06)

[mrmike88]

I would certainly be surprised if Amherst loses two of those three as well, but it's not outside of the realm of possibility.

Amherst-Trinity is always a battle.  In the four years I was at Amherst, we went 1-3 against Trinity in the regular season, losing both times at LeFrak (in 2004 by 2 points, in 2006 in OT).  I doubt we'll lose to Conn, but they're so focused on defense and limiting possessions that if we get caught up in that style of play we could be in for a close game.  It's certainly possible, even if the guys have been playing better of late...

[fpc85]

I would certainly be surprised if Amherst loses two of those three as well, but it's not outside of the realm of possibility.

Amherst-Trinity is always a battle.  In the four years I was at Amherst, we went 1-3 against Trinity in the regular season, losing both times at LeFrak (in 2004 by 2 points, in 2006 in OT).  I doubt we'll lose to Conn, but they're so focused on defense and limiting possessions that if we get caught up in that style of play we could be in for a close game.  It's certainly possible, even if the guys have been playing better of late...

mm88, you are correct it is a possibility but i like how the jeffs have learned to win playing any style....colby really slowed the game down and they worked it out. i think they may be hitting their stride.

[JeffRookie2]

looks like it will be down to amherst and umass dartmouth for #1 in the polls. probably also down to those two for the right to host sectionals. amherst may need to win out and hope for a dartmouth loss

[duffer]

Some really good information provided here regarding Tufts. As with the other posts on this subject, I agree there needs to be better distribution of the ball and better defense. It sometimes appears that their offensive sets have no continuity. and very few options. You can't look for Pierce all the time. Beyel & Cook are good shooters; Lowry is a good defensive player; Selby broke his hand the other day and is probably finished for the season.  In addition, they were without O'Keefe for almost a month between an injured ankle and some academic issues. Don't know if they can put anything together these last two weeks but they have capable athletes.

[fpc85]

how 'bout those giants!

[ILive4This]

Regional Poster's Poll anyone?

[CCsalive]

eclinchy-You're a moron. You spent hours adding individual player shot totals BEFORE Conn whooped your Jumbos. What on earth possessed you to do it again?

Too bad CC couldn't complete the sweep with a win over Bates. I'll see the Camels for the first time this year on Friday night vs the Herst. Should be fun.

Mountain of Stone for POY
Shavar Bernier is the sophomore of the year.
Jeff Young Comeback POY

[daoustian]

how 'bout those giants!

And those Jeffs!  Thanks pollsters.