MBB: NESCAC

[CCsalive]

Huge game for the Camels tonight in Williamstown. I've never been to a game at Bates, but I do enjoy a Friday night atmosphere at Williams. Winning games, in any sport, at Williams, is a feat for teams like Conn who are often bringing up the rear in NESCAC standings (note: WE AINT PROUD OF IT). That said, Tom Satrans boys are a classy bunch who can bounce the rock baby! (cheers to the return of Dicky V...doesn't matter if you don't like him....he is our Howard Cosell).

I liken beating Williams to defeating Dook. Paulsen thinks he's Coach K...spread the floor, motion, motion, motion, intensity, intensity, intensity, we're all leaders, we're all leaders, we're all leaders, grab my crotch, motion, motion, motion, shoot, shoot, shoot, BRICK, BRICK, BRICK....

The great Tom Satran likes to say that "Styles make Fights." Look for CC to deflate the ball, back door the overplaying Ephs to DEATH, and ride the Mountain of Stone north to Middlebury.

[walzy31]

What kind of odds are you giving if I just pick two non-Amherst teams? I like Bowdoin or Trinity to win it all this year.

Trinity to win it all +210
Bowdoin to win it all +290

[lefrakenstein]

Sorry it has taken me so long to respond to this, but your arguement that Rose's rather pedestrian 36.1% from behind the arc (as of today) makes up for his terrible overall % and free throw % is laughable. Maybe you are unfamiliar with penalty shots and the fact that 3-point shooters are rarely fouled? I like how your stats dont include points from foul shooting. Using your own criteria of points per shot, (including points from free throws) here is the ranking of every player in the nescac who has taken 100 shots or more this season:

JeffRookie,

I think your stat, which includes foul shots rewards the player who takes the most foul shots that are not counted as attempts.  Correct me if I am wrong, but if a player gets fouled on a shot, the player is not get credited for taking the shot unless he makes the basket.  Of course if the player wanted to pad your statistic he would be best served to miss the shot and have the opprtunity to score 2 points without having the shot go in his statistic. 

It is true that including points from foul shots without also including the shot attempt from the foul distorts the statistic, but I think that this is how Hollinger and other statisticians usually approach the points/shot number. It is, as you pointed out, by no means perfect, but I think it is better than ignoring points from foul shots entirely.

So, I looked up what Hollinger's actual method for this is. He uses the stat true shooting %. Here is his explanation:

TS% True Shooting Percentage calculates what a teams's shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers. True Shooting Percentage = (Total points x 50) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44)]

I plugged the formula into an excel spreadsheet and ranked all the players in the NESCAC with more than 100 shots by their true shooting %. Here is the list:

Baskauskas(amherst)   72.65933
Mosley(CC)   70.50345
Jones(amherst)   68.69744
Young(CC)   68.14069
Gallant(tufts)   66.84876
Bernier(CC)   66.7854
Wheeler(amherst)   66.64038
Gaudet(colby)   66.57999
Karis(CC)   66.14886
Hopkins(amherst)   64.68757
Sargeantson(bowdoin)   64.41915
Walters(amherst)   63.71456
Ellis(bates)   63.06761
Olson(amherst)   62.87775
Walsh(midd)   62.66667
Beyel(tufts)   62.42099
Rowe(trinity)   61.41221
Smith(midd)   61.39093
Coghlan(midd)   61.02643
Pierce(tufts)   60.1838
Fliegel(bowdoin)   59.99356
Jackson(bowdoin)   59.97258
Cutrone(colby)   59.52381
Shalvoy(williams)   59.2437
Martin(trinity)   58.65922
Hippert(bowdoin)   58.59375
Black(tufts)   58.36355
Halloran(bates)   58.17819
J O'Keefe(bates)   57.81616
Stone(CC)   57.73022
Weitzen(tufts)   57.09716
Russell(colby)   57.03728
Snyder(williams)   56.44356
Grayson(wes)   56.3678
Ford(trinity)   56.11826
Harris(midd)   55.3295
Geohegan(williams)   55.08409
Choice(colby)   54.7288
Hasiuk(trinity)   54.08538
Dudley(midd)   53.55643
Shultz(williams)   52.85527
Wholey(bates)   52.77086
Taylor(trinity)   52.20418
Winters(wes)   51.49935
Wilson(bates)   51.23131
R O'Keefe(tufts)   51.16959
Pelletier(wes)   50.908
Rose(williams)   49.35225
Scura(wes)   48.90267
Simpson(colby)   48.54573
Rudin(midd)   46.2657
Edwards(midd)   44.81973
Kaminer(wes)   40.09956

Once, again Rose does very badly.

Another interesting note from this stat, is just how much better stone makes his teammates. Every camel but Stone is in the top 15, so its pretty clear that the attention he demands is creating open shots for his teammates. The same also seems to be true of Choice for Colby, who takes a ton of shots, but likely boosts the % of his teammates, with Simpson the exception. It is striking that for Pierce, this does not seem to be the case, as some Tufts shooters do very well (Beyel), but others do fairly poorly (Black, O'Keefe). Obviously, Pierce and also Wietzen demand a lot of attention, but it does not seem to have  translated into better shots (or at least a higher %) for tufts' outside shooters. I have only seen Tufts once this year, so I won't offer any suggestions as to why this might be. Eclinchy, any thoughts?

[Denton]

From Brunswick

Bowdoin.  71
Tufts.    66

Go U Bears

[JustAFan]

Williams over Conn College, 60-56, despite atrocious shooting by the Ephs. Tough loss for CC after leading until the final 3 minutes of the game. Williams wins on the back of Joe Geoghegan, 23 points and 14 rebounds.

[JustAFan]

Williams shoots 20% from three-land (4-20) and 33% for the game.  They won the game on the boards, outrebounding ConnColl 43-26, including a 19-1 offensive rebounding advantage led by Geoghegan (15) and Weisbrot (11). Rose goes 0-9 from the field, 0-6 on tryes. Shalvoy had no points in the first half, and finished with 9--is he wearing down? Shultz is 1-9 from the field, Snyder 4-14. And this is in their home gym with a full week off! The Ephs inability to shoot from the outside is now in their heads, and that's the kiss of death unless/until a bunch of them have a breakout night that kills the slump.

[eclinchy]

An update on the race for the 8 seed:

Colby is guaranteed the spot UNLESS two things both happen: If Colby beats Tufts, AND Williams beats Wesleyan, then Tufts is in and Colby's out.  Here are the scenarios...

-If Colby wins against Tufts tomorrow, they will have three wins.  Colby is in.

-If Tufts beats Colby but Wesleyan beats Williams, all three teams will be tied at 2-7.  The first tiebreaker is their head-to-head records; all three teams are 1-1 against each other.  The next tiebreaker is the positioning of the remaining teams that you beat.  Tufts' other win is Williams, as will Wesleyan's be, in this hypothetical.  Williams will be 3-6.  Colby's win is over Bates; Bates is 4-4 after tonight, which means they will beat out Williams in the standings regardless of tomorrow's game at Bowdoin.  So if Tufts beats Colby and Wesleyan beats Williams, Colby is in.

-If Tufts beats Colby and Williams beats Wesleyan, Tufts and Colby are tied all alone at 2-7.  Tufts will have beaten Colby head to head, so this one's easy.  Tufts is in.

So to sum up, here's the bottom line.  Wesleyan is officially out, and Tufts needs both a win and a Williams win tomorrow to knock out Colby.

[JustAFan]

Standings heading into tomorrow's final games:

1  Amherst 8-0
2  Bowdoin 6-2
    Middlebury 6-2
    Trinity 6-2
5  Bates 4-4
6  Connecticut College 3-5
    Williams 3-5
8  Colby 2-6
9  Tufts 1-7
    Wesleyan 1-7

[frank uible]

lefrak: What is your thing about Rose? Your point has been made many times and has long ago been accepted by all persons with even a little objectivity.

[eclinchy]

The race for the 2/3/4 seeds:

Comes down to the Bates at Bowdoin, Conn at Middlebury and Trinity at Amherst games.

-If Bates/Conn/Trin win: Trin 2, Midd 3, Bowdoin 4
-If Bates/Midd/Trin win: Trin 2, Midd 3, Bowdoin 4
-If Bates/Conn/Amherst win: Bowdoin gets the 2; Trinity gets the 3 if Williams beats Wesleyan; Midd gets the 3 if Wesleyan beats Williams
-If Bates/Midd/Amherst win: Midd 2, Bowdoin 3, Trin 4
-If Bowdoin/Conn/Trin win: Bowdoin 2, Trin 3, Midd 4
-If Bowdoin/Conn/Amherst win: Bowdoin 2, Trin 3, Midd 4
-If Bowdoin/Midd/Trin win: Trin 2, Midd 3, Bowdoin 4
-If Bowdoin/Midd/Amherst win: Midd 2, Bowdoin 3, Trin 4

Looks like unless there are some big surprises, Middlebury's the favorite to grab that two-seed.  That would be a program first, I do believe.

[Old Guy]

Middlebury escaped tonight, 75-71, led the whole way, but Wes never went away, played smart aggressive defense for 40 minutes. They don't shoot it very well, but they do go hard to the hoop. I give credit to "interim" coach Johnson. Is he a candidate for the fulltime job? Wes could have mailed it in this final weekend, but they certainly didn't.

Four close games in NESCAC tonight, 5 pts biggest margin of victory, home teams winners all. Could be some surprises tomorrow.

[NY Hoopster]

To all involved in the Adam Choice All-Conference discussion;

In a must-win game for Colby, he shot 7 for 9 from the field for 18 points, had 8 rebounds, and three blocked shots, including a game clinching block on Wholey with 21 secconds left. Enough said.

[Old Guy]

"Middlebury's the favorite to grab that two-seed. That would be a program first, I do believe." eclinchy

Indeed. And then some.

This will be our fifth trip to the tourney. Last year, with five wins, we hosted for the first time (OT loss to Colby: Farrell-Cohen).

18 wins (tonight) is the most in school history. This is a nice turnabout for some of us: Middlebury has been an ice hockey (and skiing) school for a long time.

But . . . there's CC to get by tomorrow - and we'll take nothing for granted. Last time they were here, Christian Mosley killed us in the last minute, and we lost by one at the buzzer.

[nescac1]

However it shakes out, this should be the most wide open NESCAC tourney in memory.  Other than whomever Amherst plays at number eight (I don't buy the Tufts will give them trouble theory, not with this year's Tufts team), the rest of the games could go any way, really.  Conn's offense is difficult to guard (although as Williams proved last night, being undersized they can really be exploited inside) especially when they hit a lot of 3's.  I noticed Brian Ellis didn't play last night ... is he hurt?  If so, Bates may be the easiest out, but if he can play Bates is very tough and physical.  Geoghegan was HUGE last night for the Ephs, owning Charles Stone.  If they can get ANY sort of perimeter game out of Rose, Schultz and Shalvoy, who all just need to relax and get into some sort of a groove before the tourney (only one week and one more game to do so, unfortunately), they will not be fun to play in the first round with Joe G., Wesibrot and Whittington pounding away on the inside.  I agree that psychology must be an issue right now for the teamwide slump for Eph shooters.   Hopefully they can get well against Wesleyan, who has been playing better of late (given how competitive they have been in league play despite a pretty depleted roster, that interim coach HAS to get a permanent job).  And Midd, Bowdoin, and Trinity all look about even at this point behind Amherst.   While Amherst seems to have distanced itself from the field, the fight for a shot at Amherst in the final, and possibly 1-2 more spots in the NCAA's for the league, will be pretty intense here on out.  I do think if either Trinity, Midd or Bowdoin both win their last regular season game and at least make the semis, they will have done just enough to squeak in to the tourney in this year's very watered down field.  Trinity faces the toughest road, obviously.  Bowdoin has the best record, but the weakest schedule.  I'd say Midd is most deserving, considering its schedule. 

[Denton]

Hey Waltzy -

are you re-setting the spread for today?