MBB: NESCAC

[BankShotCharlie]

I love the passion CCsalive!  I think you nailed it right on the head except for the dynasty part.

Lets be friends

[CCsalive]

Does anyone else care about this stuff!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I've clicked "refresh" on my browser a thousand times in the last two hours.

Tom Satran likes to say that "Styles make fights" and that's what Middlebury better be ready for...a bloody steel cage match. There won't be enough polypropylene and Patagonia Down in the building to prevent the freeze CC is going to lay on Rudin, et al.

[nescac1]

Good to see your passion CCAlive.  Not sure you will like what I have to say, however -- I see Conn as the only school in the tourney who does not have a pretty solid chance of winning.  I just don't see a school with hardly any inside presence at all surviving three games in a row against some of the big bodies out there.  And Midd is a very, very tough match-up for Conn.  They can put a big, tough defender on Edwards to match up with your big star, and it could make life difficult for Bernier.  And even if your back-door cuts are working for you, how are all the 6'0 and 6'3 guys in your rotation gonna convert inside over 6'10 Locke and huge, physical Sharry and Smith?  Those guys will also pound you on the glass ... just a very, very tough match-up for Conn.  I'd be surprised if you stayed within 10. 

The other games are tougher to call.  Bowdoin / Colby is a toss up as you'd expect at 4/5.  Trinity is very hot right now and plays some very tough defense, there is no way Amherst will pound them the way they did in the first meeting, but at the same time, that score can't be ignored.  Williams is so up and down, they should beat Bates on paper, but who knows.  Bates is physical enough on D to disrupt Williams the way Trinity did. 

I'd say the lines would be ... Middlebury -12, Williams -6, Amherst -5, Colby -4.  Perhaps Walzy will disagree. 

[eclinchy]

My gut says to take the favorites with all four of those spreads.

[CCsalive]

First, I'm not naive. Thankfully, I get my dose of winning from UNC, the NY Giants, and more.

But, for those who care, I offer this:

CC has a fighting chance because of Midd's reckless abandon style. Conn will not run with the Panthers. Every other team in the league will try to do so. Conn wants this game in the 60's and if they can keep it there, they will have a chance to win (CC averages 59 points in conference games). Rebounding is a problem with Midd averaging 14 rebounds per game more than the Camels, however, Midd also gives up more rebs/game than any other team. Presumably, this is due to the high number of shots taken in a Midd game (and perhaps exacerbated by multiple OT games?) Conn needs the 3-ball to win this game, but this is not a ridiculous wish. I witnessed Conn whup Hamilton by shooting 8-10 from three-point land in the first half.

On Saturday vs Bowdoin, Shavar Bernier shot 6-6 from 3pt in the first-half! These were his only points of the game. A couple of buckets from CC's star in the second half would have likely spelled a win. If Porter, who tallied 17 and 7 vs Bowdoin, can repeat his performance. The Camels will be in good shape vs Middlebury.

Here are some fantastic facts from the CC page:
"The Camels resilience and resolve earned them a spot in the tournament this winter. The team dropped its first five games in conference play. They spotted Tufts a 12-to-0 lead in their sixth game." After an 0-5 start, it does take a little bit of GAME to find your way into the NESCAC tourney.

"Bernier leads the NESCAC in three-point field goal percentage (50%, 64-for-128) and is third in three-point makes with 2.67 triples per outing, sixth in steals with 1.46 thefts per game, seventh in scoring with 14.4 points a game and is ninth in field goal percentage (.515)."

"Porter is 10th overall and second among all NESCAC freshman in scoring with 13.4 points per game. The 6-6 forward is seventh in blocked shots with 1.05 rejections per game. Dean Lampe (Hamilton, Mass.) is shooting 73% from the field in the past five games (26-for-35) and 80% from three-point distance (8-for-10). The sophomore sharp-shooter is averaging 12.2 points and six rebounds during the torrid stretch."

The key to the Camels hopes for survival, however, lies in the backcourt with veteran Billy Karis (148 career threes), senior tri-captain Ulises Veras, and sophomore PG Connor Sheehy. Against Colby, these three combined for 8 points playing, 24, 28, and 29 minutes, respectively. That is PITIFUL. The Camels tallied 47 points that night. On Saturday vs Bowdoin, these three combined for 4 points in 24, 30, and 22 minutes. That is worse than pitiful, AND YET, Conn almost won the game.

Should production arrive from the backcourt, should the freshman pivot man play like a sophomore, and should Bernier meet All-Nescac expectations, the Camels will give Midd a run for their money.

I will now pipe down for the rest of the week. Good luck to all.
And remember, "That's why they play the game!"

[Old Guy]

I'm crushed. What does it mean when your self-described "friends" compare you to Jeff Ruland. He's so ugly - and his game was ugly too. The diet starts right now.

Middlebury will not take CC lightly. One who knows worries that their application of the Princeton offense can control the tempo of the game to our disadvantage - and Porter presents a tough match up, yet our win by 19 in their gym would auger success. You can be sure Midd players  remember that the Camels came into our gym just last year, also with a modest record, and shot the lights out, scored 93 points, and licked us in an upset.  CCsalive is right: it can happen (but shouldn't). Is CCsalive making the trek north (a gesture that would give expression to his confidence)?

I didn't see CC play this year, and, on the basis of their record, couldn't put them in the company of the seven teams above them. Their Hamilton win, however, was a good one.

Taking nothing for granted.

[CWM_42]

CCsalive, it is absolutely true, "That's why they play the game!"

However, there is some fault with your logic:

If "Conn wants this game in the 60's" there is no margin for error, as you point out that "CC averages 59 points in conference games".  I would also point to the following facts that don't bode well for the Camels.
a.  If you throw out Conn's point totals against Tufts (86) and Wesleyan (85), the Camels averaged 51.8 points per game in NESCAC versus those teams that qualified for the tournament.
b.  In conference road games against those that qualified for the tournament, Conn averaged 51 points.
c.  Against the top four teams in NESCAC, Conn averaged 49.5 points; the other top four teams averaged 72.3 points against Conn.
d.  Middlebury averaged 74 points per game in NESCAC. (Granted, they have a couple of overtime games).

"On Saturday vs Bowdoin, Shavar Bernier shot 6-6 from 3pt in the first-half! These were his only points of the game. A couple of buckets from CC's star in the second half would have likely spelled a win." 

And one more three pointer from Kyle Jackson from Bowdoin, who was one for five from long distance and a season long 39% shooter, still would have meant a loss for Conn.  If you have the power to change shooting percentages after the fact from afar, then so do I. (While I'm at it, I'm changing my shooting percentage from my senior year, 20 plus years ago...oh, look, 40 more points and we went undefeated).  Seriously, even acknowledging Shavar's very impressive and season long 50% shooting percentage from the three, I think the anomaly was him going 6 for 6 in the first half, not 6 for 8 for the game.

"After an 0-5 start, it does take a little bit of GAME to find your way into the NESCAC tourney."  Be honest, this was more of a quirk of scheduling.  If the Camels had played Tufts and Wesleyan first (the two teams that didn't make the tournament, but Conn beat) they would have been 2-0.

In the interest of full disclosure I have not seen Conn play this year (family members have).  If CC pulls it out, it would have to be among the greatest upsets in NESCAC Tournament history.  I would like Conn's chances better if one of the current players does an exacting Kareem Tatum impersonation.

A former coach of the New York Giants used to say, "You are what you are."  Right now Conn is 13-11 overall and 2-7 in conference.  Let's see if they pick up Cinderella on the way up to Vermont.

[ac08]

Players use anything and everything to get an edge...Since CC threw it out there, here's to hoping Amherst's edge is sharpest.

Hey Amherst...FYI- three straight Final Fours, Natl Title, you're 7-2 and you beat Middlebury and you're going to tell me they're the favorites? Guess what, you don't get to hide.

I agree... twice

[walzy31]

If CC pulls it out, it would have to be among the greatest upsets in NESCAC Tournament history. 

Fact: It would be the greatest upset in NESCAC Tournament history (no #1 has ever lost its Quarterfinal matchup).

I'm torn between the self-appointed sentiment coming from the Midd fans (albeit necessary since no one else has thrown them a single congratulatory bone) and the admonition on the part of Amherst fans (sorry if poor usage of admonish) that Midd is the clear cut favorite. I wrote weeks ago that the NESCAC tourney was still Amherst's to lose. I'd like to know if, after the Jeff's defeat of Midd, if anyone agrees with me (why Williams fans would not jump on this bandwagon with me, I do not know)? Amherst has ruled Northeast D-III hoops for years...anything less than an NCAA bid MUST be considered a disappointment. They went 7-2 in the league...this is not rebuilding! And, do not tell me that for Amherst this IS rebuilding. The Jeffs made a hell of a run, but it was a run, not a dynasty. Is the 'Herst going to win another NCAA title, ever? Williams has taken their lumps (and even upset Amherst in the NESCAC final during a season of "lump-taking"), is Amherst taking there's now? At 7-2, I would say, "No." One year removed from greatness, and re-stocked with new faces, I'd be out to prove something. Are they? Have they fallen from grace or are they still legit? It's one or the other. You're going dancing or your not. It's your conference, or its not. At 7-2, with a win over Midd, I'd be thinking its my conference, I'd be saying its my conference, I would not be granting little measly middlebury, with a lower case 'm', favorite status, home court or not.

I've praised midd, I like midd, but their not the favorite. Are they going to the NCAA no matter what? Yes. Best season in the league? Yes. NESCAC home court? Yes. POY? Yes. COY? Yes.
NESCAC Tourney Favorite? Hell F#ckin. No!
Hey Amherst...FYI- three straight Final Fours, Natl Title, you're 7-2 and you beat Middlebury and you're going to tell me they're the favorites? Guess what, you don't get to hide.

Fact: I love CC's passion for this conference. I think Men's Hoop is BY FAR the best spectator sport in the conference.

I agree that Amherst has the swagger to win this tourney. They need to focus on the defensive end and the rest will fall into place.

Perhaps Walzy will disagree. 

Fact: The numbers have been crunched and it is time to post the lines:

Middlebury -15.5
Vs. Conn College
O/U: 125.5

Amherst - 10.5
Vs. Trinity
O/U: 130.0

Williams -13.0
Vs. Bates
O/U: 142.5

Colby -5.5
Bowdoin
O/U: 129


Question: Which bear is best?

[eclinchy]

Black bear.

[nescac1]

wow, those are some wide spreads Walzy ... given how crazy unpredictable NESCAC has been this year, I think at least two maybe three of the first round games will go down to the last few minutes.  Hopefully all the games from here on out will be webcast ...

If Midd wins the conference and Amherst fails to at least make the final, there is a very good chance (according to projections) that NESCAC could be a one bid league for (I believe) the first time ever ... so for the sake of NESCAC, hopefully Midd will be a good solider and tank a game in the tourney  

Eclinchy, you think Tufts can return to relevance next year?  They pretty much have everyone back, right, and a strong group of now-very-experienced seniors plus a lot more experience at the point guard?  It does seem like the last few years Tufts hasn't been bringing in the same level of talent (not to mention, very small frosh classes), if they don't do well next year, the future (sans Pierce) could be looking rough ... of course, they may still have a tough time cracking the tourney as Conn, Bates, Trinity, and Wesleyan all figure to be improved (in some cases much improved) next year as well with few key players graduating and more familiarity with the new coaches, so the bottom of the conference will be a lot more credible. 

[Bucket]

I'm crushed. What does it mean when your self-described "friends" compare you to Jeff Ruland. He's so ugly - and his game was ugly too. The diet starts right now.

Ruland was a double-double career guy! It was a compliment!

[Pat Coleman]

If CC pulls it out, it would have to be among the greatest upsets in NESCAC Tournament history. 

Fact: It would be the greatest upset in NESCAC Tournament history (no #1 has ever lost its Quarterfinal matchup).

In the long and storied history of the event.

[Pat Coleman]

Regional rankings are out:

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2009/02/18/ncaa-regional-rankings-week-2-3/

[nescac1]

Brandies does not deserved to be ranked.  I also think d3hoops rankings more accurately reflect where WPI should be in the region: behind at least four other teams. 

One writer's take on Williams' best chance in the tourney:

http://www.advocateweekly.com/ci_11730531