MBB: NESCAC

[senatorfrost]

 Reilly has done a very good job in my opinion. He's done a lot with not too much.

[Pat Coleman]

There already is a hoopsville jinx, when teams are featured on the show each week.  I'm not sure if Bates got a mention or not, but it would explain the poor weekend.

You must be stuck in 2004-05. Take a look at the coaches interviewed this year -- they're all listed -- and tell me who got jinxed.

[Pat Coleman]

Zalaski/Salerno '06   

...

Is the atomic weight of cobalt 58.9?

Is Kessler the name of a roommate of Zalaski or Salerno?

[formerbant10]

If there is a hoopsville jinx, Pat, thanks for getting coach Hixon to agree to appearing on the show.  I'd love to see the semi's and finals held at Trinity again.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Think about this scenario... unlikely, but possible.

NESCAC finishes: 1)Amherst, 2) Trinity, 3) Tufts, 4) Bates, 5) Williams.

Bates/Williams winner beats Amherst and Trinity beats Tufts

Bates/Williams winner beat Trinity for the AQ.

That gives you Bates/Williams in, Amherst, Tufts and Trinity may all be able to get in, with the Bates/Williams loser being a longshot, but still considered.  If there aren't any upsets anywhere else, its four teams in with a shot a five.  Very crazy.


Let the conspiracy theories begin.

[nescac1]

Well, discouraging end to the regular season for Williams.  I really thought they'd at LEAST beat Colby.  Winning up in Maine is tough, but I thought this team had come together enough to beat teams that are a little less talented than they, even in a tough environment.  I guess they have overachieved all year winning lots of close games and the other shoe finally dropped.  Hopefully they can take down Tufts again but I'm not terribly optimistic in light of the end to the season.  But it would be great to pull out a win at Tufts and take one more shot at stunning Amherst.  Ephs are a pretty big underdog at this point, but if they are hot again, they can do it.  I am happy with the development of a lot of the young guys -- Snyder, Shalvoy, and Rose in particular, and I think the Ephs have a nice core for the next two years, they just need Weisbrot to develop and another really talented big man to join the program to balance what should be an even deadlier perimeter attack next year.  But you can't win without some kind of an inside presence both on offense, defense and rebounding, and the Ephs are clearly just too one-dimensional at this point. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

MY bad, I had my conspiracy theory baskwards.  Bates being the number 3 actually makes it easier.

Bates v Trinity and Williams vs Amherst in the second round, with Williams over Trinity in the final.  It sure makes the case for a lot of NESCAC teams to get in.

[dman]

here's an interesting stat....
   amherst has beaten williams four consecutive times.  hixon's career record against williams is now 27 wins and 39 losses.  he still has a long way to go to even make .500 against his archrival.... but that is still small solace for eph fans.  this past weekend is really disappointing, and in spite of hoops fans' projections, i don't see williams beating tufts in a do or die game on tufts' home floor.  assuming the top 4 seeds all advance past the first round in the league tourney, i wouldn't be surprised if they all get bids to the ncaa's.....

[formerbant10]

Hoopsfan, Bates is the 4 seed and Bowdoin is the 5 seed not Williams.  1 is Amherst, Trinity is 2, Tufts 3, Bates 4, Bowdoin 5, Williams 6, Colby 7 and Conn is 8.


If you check out the Pool C board, you'd notice that Amherst, Tufts, Bates and Trinity are all very high on the QOWI standings.  I believe that Trinity is at #30 or 31 and they right behind Bates.  Amherst is #1 overall and Tufts is not too far behind either.  A first round win for Amherst, Tufts and Bates will help their QOWI much more than Trinity's would if they win. 

Amherst is a lock, even a loss at home to a .500+ team won't hurt them at this point.  Not exactly sure how the NCAA is set up this year with byes and whatnot, but Amherst should go in with a pretty high ranking.
Tufts has to beat Williams, Williams is too close to the bubble and if Williams beats them again, Tufts should not get in ahead of Williams.....but they still may.  If Tufts wins that game, they're in.
Trinity must beat Colby.  If they face Tufts again in the semifinals, they want to beat Tufts to secure a better seeding in the NCAA's but a loss wouldn't hurt them drastically at this point.  But if they do lose, they want Amherst to win it to keep as many Pool C's open.
Bates has to beat Bowdoin.  Again, a loss to Amherst on the road won't kill them, but they better make it a closer game than this past weekend.  If they get to the finals through Amherst, they're in.
Williams must beat Tufts, Amherst and either Bates/Trinity en route to a championship to guarantee getting in.  They are outside looking in, unlike the rest of the crowd.
Bowdoin, Colby and Conn all would have to win the conference to get in.  And should that happen, the NESCAC can kiss most of their Pool C's good bye.

[soze]

If Amherst blows it in the Nescac tourney I hope we do not find out that Bedford had a hangnail on his pinkie, Casnocha had gas from eating broccoli before the game and Wheeler wore the wrong sneakers.

[ajsnc13]

I think some people have a little twisted notion of what it's going to take to get into the NCAA tournament, so I'll throw my own 2 in on the subject.

1- Amherst, they're in, even if they do lose in the first round (which they'll win by 30) they would still get in with 22 wins.

2- Trinity struggled a little at the end of the season losing 2 of their last three, but I think they'll get in as long as they don't lose their first game

3- Tufts I think they're wins against trinity and bates at the end make up for the loses to Bowdoin and williams, but not if they lose in the first round, they need to hit that 20 win platue to get in.  If it came down to it and trinity and tufts both missed the conference championship game, i'd give the edge to tufts even though I think trinity is better and beat amherst.  I just think they have 2 many questionable loses. 

4- Bates, they're record is deceptive, I would say they have 1 or 2 quality wins in region (williams, and bowdoin) the trinity texas win is nice, but non-regional so I'm not quite sure how that factors in.  Other than that they beat teams that they were far more talented than and lost to teams that were better than them.  I think they need to get to the championship game, which would probably mean beating bowdoin then amherst, which I don't see happening.  I would say they're in a tough position, and if they get it, they're gonna knock either tufts or trinity out.

Everyone else- MUST win the conference tournament.  Williams has NO chance at an at large bid, because they would only have to beat tufts and probably trinity(who are both currently bubble teams) to get to the championship game, who they already beat.  I think Williams is riding a wave of name recognition that is leading people to overrate their chances at making the NCAA tournament.  They're a good team...when they're hot, otherwise almost any inside prescence presents big problems. 
Which leads me to bowdoin, who i actually think has a better shot an at-large bid, though slim, because they would have to beat bates and then amherst to get to the champsionship game.  I think if they do that, they're region record would be 17-7 and they'd have wins over Williams, Tufts, Bates, AND Amherst which would give them serious consideration.  In other words, Bowdoin has a better shot at an at-large than williams, especially because they beat them.
Colby and Conn have to win the conference, but I don't see that happening, otherwise there records aren't that strong. 

In reality the league's gonna get 4 teams in ONLY if williams or bowdoin wins the conference tournament OR, Bowdoin beats Bates AND Amherst.  If that happens, you'd still see amherst in, and two of Tufts, Trinity and Bates.  Otherwise it'll only be 3 nescac teams in the tourney.

Alright, I think that's enough. 

[formerbant10]

For Williams to win the tourney as a 6 seed, they must win at Tufts first.  Barring any other upsets, they will play Amherst in the semifinals, not Trinity.  The NESCAC reseeds after the first round to make sure the #1 seed has the easiest road to the finals.  It's the NESCAC's way of saying congratulations for winning the regular season title since it doesn't mean much else. 
And if Williams does beat Tufts and Amherst, their QOWI will go up higher as will their in region W-L% and their head-to-head in region%.
I know these are just some of the things that the NCAA selection committee looks at, but Williams would also have to pray that there are no upsets in any of the other conferences. 
I don't think Bowdoin has a better shot for a Pool C bid than Williams.  I don't think the regional committee has really taken Bowdoin seriously.  The new rankings come out soon and any of the NESCAC teams not on that list better hope they win the next couple weekends if they want to dance.

[qbsfinest]

I think there are some intriguing matchups here in the first round with the higher seeds in for some tough games. While Amherst will demolish Conn College, I think Trinity has their hands full with a revitalized Colby team that is looking to pull a first round upset. Tufts has a tough task against Williams on Saturday with Williams earning a two point win in the first contest this season. Look for Tufts to get revenge this weekend. The 4 vs 5 matchup of Bates and Bowdoin is just what it is. a tossup. Although Bates has not lost at home this season, Bowdoin should be ready for the challenge and look for them to squeak one out in a nailbiter. Only the weekend will tell. Its gettin interesting folks as the regional rankings come out tomorrow. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Man, I did bad math twice?  Ouch.  I wasn't aware of the reseeding though, that would make my conspiracy even easier to pull off.  Since I have no vested interest in the NESCAC, I'm pulling for an underdog win.

[walzy31]

Soze,

All the excuses you just came up with won't matter because Amherst will win the tournament regardless.

Dman,

Interesting stat about Hixon winning the last 4 against Williams. Another interesting stat is Shalvoy's combined line in those 4 games:

10-32 (FG)    2-18 (3PtFG)    9 (A)   14 (TO)   23 (Points)  in  111 minutes

Compared to Amherst's Andrew Olson in the same 4 games:

17-34 (FG)    2-11  (3PtFG)   18 (A)   6 (TO)    47 (Points) in 125 minutes

Olson has four wins and zero losses. Shalvoy has four losses and zero wins. Olson has twice as many points only having taken two more shots. Olson also has a 3:1 Assist-Turnover ratio where Shalvoy has more turnovers than assists. Both players have shot three awfully, but Olson less awful than Shalvoy.

Both Amherst and Williams have stacked classes of 2009. I still will predict that Shalvoy's class does not beat Amherst in their careers. 0-4 so far and will finish 0-8, 0-9, 0-10 or 0-11.

Has anyone seen Geronimo around recently? I miss his Albany input. War Schiel.