MBB: NESCAC

[walzy31]

NESCAC Spreads - 2/5/2010

Trinity -1.0 @ Tufts
Over/Under: 161.0

Colby +10.5 @ Williams
Over/Under: 139.5

Amherst -4.5 @ Bates
Over/Under: 143.5

Bowdoin +7.0 @ Middlebury
Over/Under: 123.0

Good luck to all those who use the above lines for fun.

[mainehoops]

NESCAC Spreads - 2/5/2010

Trinity -1.0 @ Tufts
Over/Under: 161.0

Colby +10.5 @ Williams
Over/Under: 139.5

Amherst -4.5 @ Bates
Over/Under: 143.5

Bowdoin +7.0 @ Middlebury
Over/Under: 123.0

Good luck to all those who use the above lines for fun.

Waltzy, before I comment I just want to preface this by saying that I've seen your lines over the years, and needless to say, your track record speaks for itself.  Your last 3 spreads involving Colby have been off by .5 (@ Bates), 3 (vs. Trinity) and .5 (vs. Amherst).   Your work is legend no doubt. 

But 10.5?!?!  That is HEAVY, no?  My prediction: Colby by 5 when the final buzzer sounds.  Newspapers read, "Sherman Shocks the Basketball World with 24 pts while Playing Like a Man Possessed on Defense."  I like your other spreads, although I would've added an extra point or two Amherst's way.  Someone on this board said that they wouldn't want to play Amherst right now, and especially not as a potential 4/5 seed in the Nescacs, and I SECOND that.   

Muletrain, what do you think of this 10.5 spread? 

[muletrain]

I think the spread is a bit much. Williams is averaging 87 points a game while Colby is only giving up around 60. My guess is that Williams will probably score in the mid to high 70s. If that is the case and Choice has a relatively big game (which i think will happen) I think Colby will definitely be within single digits. They are going in as underdogs, but if Colby does play williams close they have a great chance. Everyone on Colby is a vet who knows how to win close games. Haylon, Choice, and Van Loenen in particular have made huge shots in their careers. My prediction is that this game comes down to the last possession like last year. Unfortunatly last year Colby's three went in and out. I think Haylon will Ice the game winner this year. At Least thats what I can hope for.

[walzy31]

All good analyses. If you back into the final score prediction, it is a Williams 75-64 win.

[muletrain]

That final score is very reasonable and could very well happen...I think that Colby has the chops to put up more the 64 though.

[mainehoops]

That final score is very reasonable and could very well happen...I think that Colby has the chops to put up more the 64 though.

Muletrain, are you are a Colby student and if so, do you know something that I don't?  I'm sensing a bit of doubt.  And from YOU especially this makes me nervous!  Can I remind you that this Colby team is 16-2, they are hungry, and they have the best player in Division 3 basketball.  Did you know that this is the biggest regular season game for Colby in YEARS and you better believe they are bringing it tonight.  They will NOT be held to 64 pts, which is 3 pts under Williams' AVERAGE.  Contrary to popular belief, this Williams team is HUMAN.  They will miss shots and they will give up baskets. 77-72 White Mules.

[nescac1]

"the best player in Division III basketball" might be just a BIT of hyperbole ... I'm guessing Tyler Sanborn or Steve Djurickovic would beg to differ ...

[mainehoops]

"the best player in Division III basketball" might be just a BIT of hyperbole ... I'm guessing Tyler Sanborn or Steve Djurickovic would beg to differ ...

I don't know anything about those 2 other than their team records and their stats.  I'd take Choice over Sanborn.  Djurickovic avgs 25 ppg 8 ass and 5 boards... wow that is impressive.  Fine I'll give you Djurikovic and put Choice at #2. 

[toad22]

Williams is far from super human! They have a number of weaknesses which can be exploited. I prefer to focus on the strengths. They have several quite unique players (for the NESCAC). Whittington is nearly impossible to stop 1-1 in the low post. His shooting % is 70.4. He is a strong shot blocker and a good rebounder. Geohegan is simply the best rebounder in the NESCAC. He averages 8.5 per game in 18 minutes. Together these centers average huge points and rebounds per game, and they play so differently that teams must make big adjustments to their interior schemes every time they switch. Wang is putting up shooting numbers this year that I can't ever recall seeing from a PG in the league. He is very hard to guard --- he is averaging 16.4 ppg with a fg% of 57.9 and a 3pt fg% of 54.8. Blake Schultz is making his Sr season his best. Again, shooting above 50% overall and from 3 points while averaging 18.9 PPG. Overall this package is hard to beat without an off night from the Ephs or a great game from the opponent. Colby anb Bowdoin are both excellent teams, so I expect that this is going to be a spectacular weekend of basketball in Williamstown.

[mainehoops]

Damn it Toad I didn't want to see those shooting stats again before gametime.  They are disturbing to me.  You do speak of weakness, care to divulge any of this information?  Mr. Wang if you are reading this feel free to play recklessly tonight.  Mr. Shultz, that goes for you too. 

[nescac1]

Ephs dominating, up 20 at half.  MVP for Williams by far is Nate Robertson, 14 points, 4 assists, 1 steal.  Wang picked up three quick fouls and has zero points (0-4).  Both Colby guards have three fouls as well, and Robertson has two of his own.  Whittington with two monster dunks, including one alley-oop from Robertson.  He has 7 and 5.  Choice playing well for Colby, but no one else doing anything on offense.  Colby is 3-9 from the line, which makes things worse, although the Ephs had about four WIDE open threes rim out, so it could have been a lot worse for Colby.  I don't know if Colby is playing poorly or what, but they are in for a long weekend if they don't get some help for Choice.  The line-up that really killed Colby was when Williams has Whittington, Geoghegan, Schultz, Rubin and Robertson out there.  

LVP for Williams: whoever put up a brand new net on the Colby basket in which the ball gets caught after every almost every made shot ... really slowed the Eph offense down until Colby stopped hitting anything in the last ten minutes. 

[walzy31]

Amherst just got walloped by Bates 76-47. The announcers, who did a great job, said that it was the first time Amherst had lost to Bates in 25 years. I would also venture to say that it was Amherst's worst loss (conference or otherwise) in at least 8 seasons. Tough one.

Brust, Schmiemann, and Gallant all played very well, but Marshall Hatch (7-9, 5-5 3pt) was the difference. He was on fire.

[mainehoops]

Can't believe I spent money on this.  I haven't seen the mules play this bad since 2003.  

A few observations ...

Williams is really really good.  Inside, Whittington is a ferocious beast with skill and athleticism.  Here I thought he gets his points off offensive rebounds and easy putbacks.  The man has skills.  Geogehan also has skills.  On the outside, it is not fair.  These ephs pull from everywhere, they hit em when they are open and they hit em when they are being defended.  Wang is very good.  

On the Colby side things, this was an awful representation of what they are.  Their D was awful, and their O was awful.  Not much to say.  Choice brought it, others need to forget about this one.  Colby will bounce back and play like men possessed tomorrow.  

[walzy31]

NESCAC Spreads - 2/5/2010

Trinity -1.0 @ Tufts
Over/Under: 161.0

Colby +10.5 @ Williams
Over/Under: 139.5

Amherst -4.5 @ Bates
Over/Under: 143.5

Bowdoin +7.0 @ Middlebury
Over/Under: 123.0

Trinity 67 - Tufts 62
Trinity -1.0 @ Tufts (Trinity Covers +4.0)
Over/Under: 161.0 (Under +32.0)

Williams 82 - Colby 58
Colby +10.5 @ Williams (Williams covers +13.5)
Over/Under: 139.5 (Over +0.5)

Bates 76 - Amherst 47
Amherst -4.5 @ Bates (Bates covers +33.5)
Over/Under: 143.5 (Under +20.5)

Middlebury 76 - Bowdoin 65
Bowdoin +7.0 @ Middlebury (Middlebury Covers +4.0)
Over/Under: 123.0 (Over +18.0)

[nescac1]

Nice win for the Ephs, up 32 before garbage time.  I learned from the broadcast that senior Charlie Cates is the team's nutritionist and fitness guru.  So there you go.  Cates also does some sick dunks in warm-ups.  He is intense.  Robertson and Russell banged heads hard early in second half, both walked off and did not return, hopefully they are OK.  Too bad as Robertson was having a career game and just in total control when he was playing the point.  Wang rebounded after a rough first half to play better in the second, although overall a very rare off night from the floor for him, jacked up some wild shots.  Whittington 12 points, 7 board, 3 steals in 15 minutes.  No one on Colby had a prayer against him; he ended with three dunks.  Nice game for Dodson with 11-3 including three treys, and he matched Colby's physicality which was nice to see.  Schultz quietly had a nice game, as did Big Joe.  

Choice and no one else stood out for Colby; Russell is physical and tough on the glass.  The Colby guards had a tough night, collectively.  Choice is definitely legit and would be a deserving player of the year (honestly, the Ephs' top three are about even with each other at this point) but needs more help.  

Don't know WHAT to make of that Amherst score.  Stunning.