MBB: NESCAC

[Marty Peretz]

Bates and Midd cover. Two line parlay. But Walzy, more importantly, a huge one tonight for your other alma mater.

[Bucket]

The Bucket family will be Williamstown-bound tomorrow. My good friend Coach Maker promises nothing but the finest hospitality from the Purple People.

I'll be the bald fella with the 3-year-old who is nuts for the Panthers and my beautiful bride, who will probably have her head buried in a book. Feel free to give a shout.

[division3]

sounds good bucket...i will look for you there.

[FISHERMAN]

Colby + 6.5.......I'm taking the points and heading straight to the bank. Mark this down, I GUARANTEE a white mule victory. Let the hater's hate while the players play.

[ephoops]

My son was off from school yesterday so I gave him a little project to add some quantitative analysis to the debate over the comparative performance of some of the top NESCAC players.  The table below compares the "game score" ratings for both the NESCAC regular season and the total season for each of the players listed.  

As some may know, John Hollinger developed the his Player Efficiency Rating (PER), a figure that attempts to combine all of a player's contributions into one number.  His "Game Score" rating is a simplied formula for PER.  The Game Score formula is

Game Score =  (Points x 1.0) + (FGM x 0.4) + (FGA x -0.7) + ((FTA-FTM) x -0.4) + (OREB x 0.7) + (DREB x 0.3) + (STL x 1.0) + (AST x 0.7) + (BLK x 0.7) + (PF x -0.4) + (TO x -1.0)

The higher the score, the better the all-around performance.  The table calculates the average "game score" per game and also the average per 40 minutes of playing time.

NESCAC Season

Player	Per Game	40 Min
Schultz	16.50	21.52
Wang	13.48	17.52
Choice	13.47	16.38
Russell	10.84	15.31
Pierce	15.71	18.13

Total  Season

Player	Per Game	40 Min
Schultz	14.70	19.89
Wang	14.36	19.15
Choice	13.98	17.08
Russell	12.32	17.04
Pierce	13.00	15.71

Based on Hollinger's metrics, Schultz has been the best player in the NESCAC and the best overall player throughout the season.  In fact , he raised his already high level of performance during the NESCAC season compared to  non-conference games.

[nescac1]

Williams wins easily despite being ICE cold from deep (as was Bates), Rubin hits the only three.  But Bates had no answer for Wang, who basically drove at will and abused whoever was defending him.  The Ephs didn't really play all that sharp today, in addition to the poor shooting there were a lot of guys trying to do too much on offense on their own.  Against a better team, that might get them in trouble, but Bates simply couldn't guard the Ephs one-on-one.  Williams had about 6-7 fast break steal / layup combination, all off perimeter passes by Bates, they really had Bates diagnosed.  Good defensive effort by the Ephs, with Schultz's five steals (Schultz has arguably the best defensive anticipation in the league, and his D is really underrated overall) and Whittington's four blocks (all of the spectacular variety) leading the way.  Only one dunk by Whittington, but it was a doozy.  Rubin and Robertson both played very steady games in supporting roles, making big plays when needed.  Geoghegan also had a very strong game including a dunk and a near-dunk alley-oop finish off an inbounds pass, plus his usual array of tough boards in traffic.  

I think any Colby fans who doubt Wang's abilities would have been silenced had they seen this game.  9-13 from the field, almost all on tough driving layups through the heart of the defense, 20 points, 6 boards, 6 assists, one ridiculous behind-the-back-dribble move ending with a crazy dipsy-doo layup high off the glass.  Again, the team got out of its offense a bit, but when a guy is driving into the teeth of the defense and gets a layup or draws a foul almost every time, hard to complain.  Choice is very good but I wouldn't take him over Wang or Schultz.  

Bates is a physical team; two flagrant fouls in the game (one was borderline, but the second was ridiculous especially since the outcome was already a foregone conclusion by that point).  

MIT loses today; has to make Colby a BIT nervous if they lose, but I think they are likely still in barring a bunch more upsets ...

[amh63]

ephhoops,
liked your post with the analysis (by your son) of the top conference players.  While the conference teams are playing for the their chances in the upcoming NCAA dance, I was struck recently by a method to quantify a team's efficiency level; more or less like that done for players.  It has been used for a decade by Basketball Prospectus.  The company uses a formula to determine how efficient a team has been in a season.  The measuring stick was said to have been first been by Dean Smith of UNC.  The examples given were for the UMD men's BB team as well as Duke and shows how the two teams now leading the ACC conference, both have the top efficiency levels.
It quantifies the offense and the defense of a team.  It shows how many points per possession a team scores as well as how many points per possession their opponent scores in a given game.  Using such values a team's level of efficiency is determined for a game.  It may be of interest to see how efficient the NESCAC teams heading into the NCAA are by this method.  Is ephhoops son for hire?
I may do it for the Amherst men's team for fun.   Back to watching the games.  Williams does appear to be an efficient team!

[machine54]

Huge second half by the MIDD KIDDS destroys the Mules.  Did you catch that alley oop dunk by Locke -
should be a heck of a game tomorrow - but just the appetizer to their third meeting down the road - ENJOY

[eph partisan]

Edwards and Davis entirely shut down Choice, and Locke did the same to Russell - the stats don't do the Panther's defensive work justice. Choice was so frustrated he kicked a trashcan.

Should be a good game tomorrow. I'll be interested to see how much of a difference Sharry makes.

[walzy31]

MaineHoops,
Phenomenal post and thanks for breaking the posting lull before the storm.


2/27/2010 - NESCAC Spreads

#4 Bates +15.5 @ #1 Williams
Over/Under: 155.0

#3 Colby +6.5 Vs. #2 Middlebury (@ Williams)
Over/Under: 124.5


Proposition Bets

2010 NESCAC Champion
Williams      -290
Middlebury  +100
Colby         +420
Bates         +800

How Many Does Wang Go Off For?
(Saturday & Sunday Total Ponts)

0-9     +800
10-14  +600
15-19  +490
20-24  +250
25-29  +200
30-34  +160
35-39  +140
40-44  +130
45-49  +120
50-54  +180
55-60  +280
60-64  +550
65+     +770

2/27/2010 - NESCAC Spreads

Williams 71 - Bates 48
#4 Bates +15.5 @ #1 Williams (Williams Covers +7.5)
Over/Under: 155.0 (Under +36.0)

Middlebury 65 - Colby 48
#3 Colby +6.5 Vs. #2 Middlebury (@ Williams) (Middlebury Covers +10.5)
Over/Under: 124.5 (Under +11.5)


Proposition Bets

2010 NESCAC Champion
Williams      -290
Middlebury  +100
Colby         +420
Bates         +800

How Many Does Wang Go Off For?
(Saturday & Sunday Total Ponts)

0-9     +800
10-14  +600
15-19  +490
20-24  +250
25-29  +200
30-34  +160
35-39  +140
40-44  +130
45-49  +120
50-54  +180
55-60  +280
60-64  +550
65+     +770

[toad22]

Going into the game tomorrow, I rate Midd and Williams pretty nearly even. Whoever plays closer to their ideal will win. Since the game is at Williams, I guess I would give the Ephs a 3 point edge, but that is all. Middlebury tied Colby into knots. They couldn't get a breath. Williams, on the other hand was a little sloppy and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn door. Williams needs to take care of the ball and shoot it better or there is no chance.

[nescac1]

Should be a great game and a charged atmosphere tomorrow ... if Midd wins, could Williams and Midd be the top seeds in two different regions, the way Amherst and Williams were back in 2004?  I wonder ... hopefully it won't come to that, of course!  [Correction, I think Amherst was NOT the top seed in 04, but it would still be nice if Williams and Midd were separated ... although neither would want to end up in the regional with all those ODAC teams ... they are nasty]. 

Nice Youtube of some Williams highlights ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MG1BfUQSfV0

Includes some from the first Midd game (:54), including Hardy's big jumper, which changed the entire momentum of the game, and a few nice dunks.  Finishes with a few highlights from last week's Wesleyan game, including the deeeep three from Dodson and the massive Whittington dunk (which actually seemed more impressive watching live, just because it was so unexpected / out of the blue).  

Colby better hope for no more upsets in conference tourneys.  MIT and the loser of tomorrow's games are already Pool C's, for sure, from New England.  Brandeis won today, so if there is a third Pool C from New England, could go either way, but Brandeis might have the edge.  I can't imagine that 4/19 Pool C's come from New England, but anything is possible ...  

[walzy31]

2/28/2010 - NESCAC Spreads

#2 Middlebury +12.5 @ #1 Williams
Over/Under: 128.0

Proposition Bets
BETS ALREADY LOCKED

2010 NESCAC Champion
Williams      -290
Middlebury  +100
Colby         +420
Bates         +800

How Many Does Wang Go Off For?
(Saturday & Sunday Total Ponts)

0-9     +800
10-14  +600
15-19  +490
20-24  +250
25-29  +200
30-34  +160
35-39  +140
40-44  +130
45-49  +120
50-54  +180
55-60  +280
60-64  +550
65+     +770

[magicman]

Walzy.
I 'll take a parley on the Panthers and the over.
If I lose you can come to Plattsburgh and I'll treat you to a round of golf. If I win you can still come to Plattsburgh and I'll treat you to a round of golf.

[nescac1]

Exciting first half, Ephs up 10, and Midd has to be happy with that. Ephs were up 17 and seemed to be in total control but Locke with several big blocks ignited Midd to a comeback.  Midd's press was effective as well forcing a few turnovers.  But even after all that energy Ephs in good shape if they can hit more shots.  Neither team shooting great but that is due to a ton of energy and intensity from both sides.  Lots of great defensive plays from both teams.  Play of the game for Ephs was Whittington stuffing Locke, leading to a fast break with a ridiculous pass from Robertson to Timmins for the finish.  Wang scored a quick seven but has since been held in check by Midd.  Edwards carrying Midd on both ends, really working hard out there, but needs more help.  Sharry invisible for Midd and they will need more from him to win.  Block party by both team, this is a physical, intense game.  Refs letting them play as there were numerous non-calls that angered both teams.  Geoghegan huge inside for Williams with 9 boards. 

Kudos to the Midd fans, big, loud contingent (they are right next to the camera so sound even louder).  Great job by Eph women's star Chessie Jackson on national anthem ...