MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

I'd rather they not be tested, personally ... but I'd just take a win !  They can worry about Salem if and when they get there.  The Ephs did have a decent number of close games, the RMC game, the Midd games, the first Amherst game, and the two games vs. SUNY-opponents.  So they've shown they can gut out a close game (other than RMC, who is a great team, but in all events they've resolved some of the issues that plagued them in that game, although one aspect does still worry me a bit). 

Whoever ends up in Salem from outside ODAC could essentially face two road games, if RMC wins tonight, because the crowds will be huge and very partisan for Guilford, EMC, and RMC.  And those teams are legit to begin with.  No doubt that ODAC was the best conference this year ... and what is scary is that EMC and RMC basically play NO seniors, so those two teams could be even better next year (although it's now or never for Guilford given who they lose).  Actually, other than Brandeis and Guilford (decimated by graduation) and to some extent Williams (lose a great senior class, but return a lot of talent as well including Wang and Whittington), everyone else left in the tourney has a junior-dominated roster.  Interesting.  I think that after a year with a lot of parity, where the title is truly anyone's for the taking at this point, next year we'll see a few powerhouses (IWU, Carthage, EMC, RMC, F&M, WSP, maybe one or two more) really steamrolling the competition throughout the year ...

[nescac hoops]

Nescac1,

I would also just take a win but I think it would bode well for the Ephs to go into Salem with at least one tough win in the tourney. Their last real contest was against Midd in the conference final game two weeks ago. Three weeks is a long time to go without a real challenge. But like you, I am also just hoping for a win....

I realize that the Crotty-Olson comparison is much more valid given that they had similar playing styles at the point (assists first, scoring second) but the numbers that Wang is putting up are absolutely RIDICULOUS (http://williams.prestosports.com/sports/mbkb/2009-10/stats/teamcume.htm). It isn't fair to compare him to Olson or Crotty because he is much more of a scoring point guard than those two but he is equally as fun to watch and is orchestrating one of the most efficient offenses in Williams history. He is only a sophomore and if his trajectory continues I think he warrants consideration as being one of the top point guards.

[eph partisan]

I realize that the Crotty-Olson comparison is much more valid given that they had similar playing styles at the point (assists first, scoring second) but the numbers that Wang is putting up are absolutely RIDICULOUS... He is only a sophomore and if his trajectory continues I think he warrants consideration as being one of the top point guards.

The question will be whether Wang can continue to put up those numbers when he is the primary focus of the defense rather than the secondary focus. The shooters that Williams has really open up the floor for him, and granted they aren't going anywhere, but it will be interesting to see in the coming years. I personally have faith in him. He's a great player.

However, forget about the coming years. GO EPHS. I don't think that they need a tough game tonight to have success, NESCAC hoops - Maker is a good enough coach and they've figured it out enough at this point to know how to handle themselves; I think they'll be better off if they play very well. It will give them confidence going into the Final Four. Wang has also turned himself into a phenomenal late game closer -- he's 29 for 30 from the line since the second Amherst game, and has been the one on the line for the Ephs in all the late game situations.

The question tonight will be if the Ephs can keep the kid Hollins off the boards. He's frickin' huge, and that's the one place we still struggle on occasion.

[Gregory Sager]

I think that after a year with a lot of parity, where the title is truly anyone's for the taking at this point, next year we'll see a few powerhouses (IWU, Carthage, EMC, RMC, F&M, WSP, maybe one or two more) really steamrolling the competition throughout the year ...

I don't think the CCIW is going to be a two-team league next year. (It wasn't this year, either; don't forget that Wheaton bowed out by one point to UT-Dallas in UTD's gym down in Texas. Wheaton beat IWU in two out of their three contests.) It should be very competitive, with at least five pretty strong teams out of the eight.

[nescac1]

Not a great first half by Williams, up by only 3.  Brandeis' perimeter quickness gave them a lot of trouble on the defensive end until Williams finally started going inside, which they need to do more.  Great half for Schultz, 12 points, 4-4 from fg, including one HUGE deep three as the shot clock was winding down.  Whittington with 5 points and 3 boards in only six minutes ... he needs more PT!  Williams really clamped down on defense after playing some matador D early, holding Brandeis without a field goal for a six minute stretch.  The Ephs will need to play that level of defensive intensity for the entire second half and need to pound the ball inside to pull out a win.  VERY rare off half for Wang, 4-13, missing many shots he usually makes.  Hopefully he'll turn it around in the second half as well.  Brandeis led by Hughes who was strong on both ends. 

[nescac1]

Great, great play down the stretch by Williams.  Congrats to the Ephs on their fifth final four!!!!  Incredible year and hopefully it will continue in a virtual road game vs. Guilford. 

Co-MVP's of the night were Schultz and Whittington. Schultz hit big shot after big shot, locking up (I'd think) first team all-American status with just an incredible game, 29 points, 8-13, 3-4, 10-10, seven boards, NO turnovers, great defense, wow, even for Schultz, that may be the best game of his career, considering the stakes. 

Whittington just absolutely dominated the game on both ends when he finally got more PT ... 14-10 with four blocks, Brandeis would simply not give the Ephs many looks from three, so they allowed Whittington to go one-on-one and he could not be stopped inside. 

Wang had a bit of an off day for him, missed some shots he generally makes, partially because of Brandeis' quickness, partially with just a few rolling in and out, but still finished with 18 including several HUGE shots in the second half on very crafty moves ... (he DEFINITELY belongs in the Crotty / Olson conversation, not the steady hand and precision that Crotty has, not the creativity or vision of Olson in terms of passing, but a better defender, rebounder, and much better one-on-one scorer than either of them). 

Wow, go Ephs!!!

[dman]

congrats to the ephs on advancing to the final four.  blake schultz played an outstanding game on defense and hit the biggest shot of game.  watching the game, knew he had alot, but i didn't realize he ended up with 29. terrific!!  fans were unbelievable too...brandeis is a very solid team- gotta recognize their efforts too...
good luck  and best wishes in salem......

[nescac1]

Still pumped from last night, great to see Chandler hopping again.  Brandeis played tough and gets credit for a gutty performance, but ultimately, the Ephs just had too many weapons for them.  One of the best defensive performances I've seen by the Ephs, after an ugly start, they just completely clamped down on 'deis for 3/4 of the game, they had little room to breathe.  Several individual players have noticeably improved on D over the course of the season, and the team defense has become really intelligent, rarely giving up easy shots.  When Troy is in, that adds a whole different dimension as guys are hesitate to shoot inside.

Checking out Guilford, looks like the first order of business will be to try to contain Tyler Sanborn.  Whittington / Geoghegan have had their way with most centers this year, and haven't faced anyone remotely like him.  6'9, 260, his production in 26 minutes per game is virtually identical to Troy and Joe's COMBINED production in 38 mpg.  Wow.  If the two of them (and maybe even a few minutes from Emerson if foul trouble) can combine to roughly equal Sanborn's output, I like the Ephs' chances.  But he'll clearly present a big match-up problem as nothing the Ephs have seen will have prepared them.  Guilford's second and third best players will likely match up against Schultz and Wang, respectively, so it should be a very even, very intriguing battle.  Where the Ephs may have an edge is Rubin, as Guilford's fourth guy doesn't seem to be nearly as big a threat. 

Guilford will be very familiar with the venue, having played there in last year's Final Four and in multiple ODAC tourneys ... they are certainly more battle tested than the Ephs, both this year and in past years.  On the other hand, it will be nice, for once, for the Ephs to not have the burden of being an overwhelming favorite, and really, after several deep tourney runs coming up without a title, with all three stars being seniors, and playing a virtual home game, all the pressure will be on Guilford. 

If the Ephs can manage a win, they'll have a chance for redemption (from 04 or this year) no matter who they face in the final.  But Guilford is easily the best team the Ephs' have faced all year; it will be fun to see if they can elevate their collective games. 

[nescac hoops]

Nescac1,

I am also still pumped about last night. It's great to see that energy back in Chandler again. I also couldn't be happier for the seniors and Coach Maker. I don't think there is a more likeable guy than Coach Maker as a coach or person. It's sort of ironic that Paulsen's greatest "flaw" on this board was that he was only able to have success with teams that were recruited for him (Crotty, Abba, Coffin, etc. that were recruited by Sheehy) and now Maker is bringing Paulsen's recruits (Schultz, Joe G, Whittington, and Wang) to a Final Four. While Maker certainly inherited a lot of talent, I think he has developed those players and has gotten the most of that talent. It will be telling to see what he does with his first freshman year class with players like Robertson (who looked pretty solid last night playing 25 minutes) and Klemm, who is apparently supposed to be their next big star. Go Ephs.

[John Gleich]

Repost from the ODAC board to spur on a little discussion...

Ya know, the whole argument of "Williams would have had more losses if they played in the ODAC" might be true... but it might not be true either.

Let's take a look at the final four teams in terms of S.O.S.

Team	SOS Rank	Win %	OWP	OOWP	SOS
UWSP:	11	.846	.588	.559	.578
Randy Mac:	20	.727	.578	.530	.562
Guilford:	127	.929	.522	.530	.525
Williams:	170	1.000	.508	.545	.520

In one sense, one could say that Williams, because they didn't lose* may be the best team in the country, even if they didn't play the best schedule.  No one* beat them... so it can't be said that they would have lose if they played a different schedule.  I made that same argument for teams like Anderson, St. Norbert, etc, who had gaudy records but didn't have gaudy SOS's.  They matriculated up in what has been dubbed the St. Peter Principle after Gustavus Adolphus (of St. Peter, MN) from a few years ago when teams above them lost and they kept rising in the polls.  They really weren't that good... but because others above them lost, they seemed better, even though they weren't playing the greatest competition.  At a certain point, they should have just stopped rising in the polls (the argument I made for Anderson and St. Norbert was at about 15, or so) until they were challenged by a top team.  That argument (up to 15) holds because both those teams had lost a game or two at that point, and not to a top team.  Now, each team can have an off night and lose a game they should win (such as Whitworth losing to Pomona-Pitzer, in my opinion) but if it's two such losses, then it casts skepticism on if their record is really representative of how good they are... when they don't have a great SOS.  If, however, they lose just 1 game to an average team, than that might have been an off night... but I don't think they should matriculate higher than about 15.

All that is to say that Williams is undefeated* so they really might be that great, no matter what their S.O.S.  Now, one might add that they haven't truly been tested by tough competition... so when the rubber meets the road, they won't be as prepared as a team that has played a tough schedule.  Furthermore, if they haven't lost, then they haven't gone through the maturity and learning that a loss provides, such as weaknesses that would otherwise not come to light.


*Of course, however, Williams isn't undefeated... they've actually lost to Randy Mac, so this string of logic doesn't flow fully, though one might be able to say that this victory was, perhaps, aided by RMC's home court advantage.  I'm not necessarily going to take this line myself, but I don't have a dog in that particular fight...  the WIAC had an .80 win percentage this year and the ODAC would have struggled there too!   

Here are some numbers comparisons of the teams:

Team	Off Eff	Def Eff	Avg Poss/Gm	Off PPG	Def PPG
Point	114.6	92.4	129.0	74.0	59.5
R-M	105.1	90.7	141.7	74.6	64.1
Guil	115.8	95.5	140.1	81.7	66.5
Will	122.8	93.2	138.6	85.2	64.5

The Off/Def efficiency takes Points/100 possessions and the possessions are compiled by this algorithm:

Poss = FGA - ORB + T.O. + (.475*FTA)

The possession numbers per game above are the offensive possessions plus defensive possessions and can be used to see the pace at which teams like to play.

Here's another rubric... it looks at FG%, 3P%, 2P%, % of makes and attempts that are 2's and 3's:

Offensive

Team	FG%	3P%	2P%	%A3P	%A2P	%M3P	%M2P
Point	49.5%	36.4%	53.9%	25.1%	74.9%	18.4%	81.6%
R-M	47.7%	37.0%	53.2%	34.3%	65.7%	26.7%	73.3%
Guil	47.3%	37.9%	51.7%	31.6%	68.4%	25.3%	74.7%
Will	52.7%	45.8%	56.9%	38.4%	61.6%	33.4%	66.6%

Defensive

Team	FG%	3P%	2P%	%A3P	%A2P	%M3P	%M2P
Point	41.1%	31.9%	45.9%	34.3%	65.7%	26.6%	73.4%
R-M	40.3%	30.8%	44.2%	29.3%	70.7%	22.4%	77.6%
Guil	40.0%	32.5%	45.7%	43.2%	56.8%	35.1%	64.9%
Will	39.3%	32.5%	42.4%	31.3%	68.7%	25.9%	74.1%

I don't have time for any analysis right now of these numbers... but the SOS DOES need to be taken into account when looking at these.

[nescac1]

Wow, that took a lot of work.  Thanks for sharing the info ... seems like the ODAC fans are all banding together ... considering how small our cheering sections will be, relatively, Stevens Point and Williams fans should likewise form an alliance! 

[hasanova]

Wow, that took a lot of work.  Thanks for sharing the info ... seems like the ODAC fans are all banding together ... considering how small our cheering sections will be, relatively, Stevens Point and Williams fans should likewise form an alliance! 

Ah, how Orwellian.  You should go with Oceania instead.

[nescac1]

Congrats to Coach Maker (COY), Blake Schultz (POY), James Wang and Adam Choice (first team all region) for representing NESCAC in all-region awards:

http://www.d3hoops.com/all-region/10/nemen.htm

The first team looks exactly right to me ... Phillips, Edwards, Pierce also deservedly honored.  NESCAC loses a great senior class, a lot of young guys are really going to have to step up next year. 

[John Gleich]

This is a repost from the ODAC board...

I'm going to refer to some of these numbers, so I might as well put them all together!

Ya know, the whole argument of "Williams would have had more losses if they played in the ODAC" might be true... but it might not be true either.

Let's take a look at the final four teams in terms of S.O.S.

Team	SOS Rank	Win %	OWP	OOWP	SOS
UWSP:	11	.846	.588	.559	.578
Randy Mac:	20	.727	.578	.530	.562
Guilford:	127	.929	.522	.530	.525
Williams:	170	1.000	.508	.545	.520

In one sense, one could say that Williams, because they didn't lose* may be the best team in the country, even if they didn't play the best schedule.  No one* beat them... so it can't be said that they would have lose if they played a different schedule.  I made that same argument for teams like Anderson, St. Norbert, etc, who had gaudy records but didn't have gaudy SOS's.  They matriculated up in what has been dubbed the St. Peter Principle after Gustavus Adolphus (of St. Peter, MN) from a few years ago when teams above them lost and they kept rising in the polls.  They really weren't that good... but because others above them lost, they seemed better, even though they weren't playing the greatest competition.  At a certain point, they should have just stopped rising in the polls (the argument I made for Anderson and St. Norbert was at about 15, or so) until they were challenged by a top team.  That argument (up to 15) holds because both those teams had lost a game or two at that point, and not to a top team.  Now, each team can have an off night and lose a game they should win (such as Whitworth losing to Pomona-Pitzer, in my opinion) but if it's two such losses, then it casts skepticism on if their record is really representative of how good they are... when they don't have a great SOS.  If, however, they lose just 1 game to an average team, than that might have been an off night... but I don't think they should matriculate higher than about 15.

All that is to say that Williams is undefeated* so they really might be that great, no matter what their S.O.S.  Now, one might add that they haven't truly been tested by tough competition... so when the rubber meets the road, they won't be as prepared as a team that has played a tough schedule.  Furthermore, if they haven't lost, then they haven't gone through the maturity and learning that a loss provides, such as weaknesses that would otherwise not come to light.


*Of course, however, Williams isn't undefeated... they've actually lost to Randy Mac, so this string of logic doesn't flow fully, though one might be able to say that this victory was, perhaps, aided by RMC's home court advantage.  I'm not necessarily going to take this line myself, but I don't have a dog in that particular fight...  the WIAC had an .80 win percentage this year and the ODAC would have struggled there too!   

Here are some numbers comparisons of the teams:

Team	Off Eff	Def Eff	Avg Poss/Gm	Off PPG	Def PPG
Point	114.6	92.4	129.0	74.0	59.5
R-M	105.1	90.7	141.7	74.6	64.1
Guil	115.8	95.5	140.1	81.7	66.5
Will	122.8	93.2	138.6	85.2	64.5

The Off/Def efficiency takes Points/100 possessions and the possessions are compiled by this algorithm:

Poss = FGA - ORB + T.O. + (.475*FTA)

The possession numbers per game above are the offensive possessions plus defensive possessions and can be used to see the pace at which teams like to play.

Here's another rubric... it looks at FG%, 3P%, 2P%, % of makes and attempts that are 2's and 3's:

Offensive

Team	FG%	3P%	2P%	%A3P	%A2P	%M3P	%M2P
Point	49.5%	36.4%	53.9%	25.1%	74.9%	18.4%	81.6%
R-M	47.7%	37.0%	53.2%	34.3%	65.7%	26.7%	73.3%
Guil	47.3%	37.9%	51.7%	31.6%	68.4%	25.3%	74.7%
Will	52.7%	45.8%	56.9%	38.4%	61.6%	33.4%	66.6%

Defensive

Team	FG%	3P%	2P%	%A3P	%A2P	%M3P	%M2P
Point	41.1%	31.9%	45.9%	34.3%	65.7%	26.6%	73.4%
R-M	40.3%	30.8%	44.2%	29.3%	70.7%	22.4%	77.6%
Guil	40.0%	32.5%	45.7%	43.2%	56.8%	35.1%	64.9%
Will	39.3%	32.5%	42.4%	31.3%	68.7%	25.9%	74.1%

I don't have time for any analysis right now of these numbers... but the SOS DOES need to be taken into account when looking at these.

Alright, as promised, here are some more stats.  This time, it's a break down of how many points per game come from 3's, 2's, and FT's and the percentage of the overall points this is.  First set of numbers are offensive, second are defensive.


   

UWSP	3Pt's	2Pt's	Ft's
PPG from:	15.4	45.4	13.2
% of points:	20.8%	61.4%	17.8%
PPG from:	17.1	31.5	10.9
% of points:	28.8%	52.9%	18.4%

   

R-M	3Pt's	2Pt's	Ft's
PPG from:	21.4	39.2	14.1
% of points:	28.6%	52.5%	18.8%
PPG from:	15.5	35.8	12.9
% of points:	24.1%	55.8%	20.1%

   

Guilford	3Pt's	2Pt's	Ft's
PPG from:	22.0	43.4	16.2
% of points:	27.0%	53.2%	19.8%
PPG from:	25.8	31.8	8.9
% of points:	38.8%	47.8%	13.4%

   

Williams	3Pt's	2Pt's	Ft's
PPG from:	29.4	39.1	16.8
% of points:	34.5%	45.8%	19.7%
PPG from:	18.8	35.9	9.8
% of points:	29.1%	55.7%	15.1%

These numbers should be paired with the other numbers I posted... and it's going to give us more of a clear idea what these teams rely on and do well.

I think the two semi-final games are going to be very different.  In the Williams/Guilford game, you have two pretty potent offenses.  In Williams, you have a pretty unique situation... not only are they the best 3 point shooting team in the country (in terms of 3 point percentage), they also have the best overall shooting percentage too.  They shoot 45.8% from 3 and 56.9% from 2.  That's efficient!  And it isn't like they don't shoot a lot of 3's... they do.  Fully 1/3 of their made shots are 3's.  Of course, going back to the discussion from earlier, Williams hasn't played as difficult a schedule as the other 3 final four teams... but those numbers are still pretty darn impressive.

Interestingly, likely due to Guilford's size inside, of the last 4 teams standing, they have the highest percentage of shots against that are 3's (43.2%).  And they have held teams to 32.5% shooting from downtown... So of the three possible opponents for Williams, they very well might meet their greatest test against Guilford in terms of attacking a defense because of how teams have attacked Guilford throughout the year.

Interestingly, both Point and Randy Mac played even tougher schedules than Guilford and have higher rated defenses!  So while it's true that Guilford is used to defending a lot of 3's, both Point and Randy Mac are better at it!

I think that the Guilford/Williams game is going to be a game that is in the low 80's.  This is a bit of a change for Williams... they have only had one game in which they let up more than 70 points and didn't score more than 90, and that was against Randy Mac.  On many levels, Williams should have won that game... they were up double digits in the second half and outshot and outrebounded RMC.  But Williams turned the ball over 13 times to just 6 for RMC and they took 6 and made 5 fewer free throws... and that was all she wrote.


Here are some more numbers, this time with assists and turnovers.  To be honest, I'm not too concerned with the assist numbers... I'm more concerned with the turnover numbers and with the forced turnovers.  Again, offensive numbers are first, defensive numbers are second.


   

UWSP	Assists	TO's	A/TO
Total	410	305	1.34
Per Gm	13.2	9.8
Total	285	401	0.71
Per Gm	9.2	12.9

   

R-M	Assists	TO's	A/TO
Total	470	530	0.89
Per Gm	14.7	16.6
Total	293	476	0.62
Per Gm	9.2	14.9

   

Guilford	Assists	TO's	A/TO
Total	453	414	1.09
Per Gm	14.2	12.9
Total	405	400	1.01
Per Gm	12.7	12.5

   

Williams	Assists	TO's	A/TO
Total	468	348	1.34
Per Gm	15.6	11.6
Total	281	317	0.89
Per Gm	9.4	10.6

Point is the only team with a positive turnover ratio.  All of the other teams turn the ball over more than their opponents.  This could become important... Playoff basketball is possession-by-possession basketball and if you can eliminate your mistakes and maximize those of your opponent, then you put yourself in a very good position to win. 

I noticed with my last post that Randy Mac had the highest possession-per-game average of the final 4 teams (it isn't as significant an increase over Williams or Guilford, but it is there).  What I found interesting about this is that they aren't converting on the offensive end (thus their offensive efficiency number is the worst of the 4).  However, they have the best defensive efficiency because, even though there are more possessions, they have the second-best points-against average. 

I don't really know anything about how RMC plays, but many teams who let up few points do so by limiting the number of possessions that their opponents have to score.  But it seems to me that RMC isn't limiting their opponents' chances... they're just preventing them from scoring in an effective manner.  Part of this may be that, of the 4 teams, RMC's opponents haven't taken as many 3's as the other 3 teams' opponents have.  If you can limit the number of 3 attempts (and, thus, makes), then you're effectively improving your defense.  Now, of course, the shooting percentage matters.  If a team shoots 90% from 2 and 10% from 3, I'm going to let them shoot 50 3's and 10 2's (15 points from 3, 18 points from 2 for a total of 33 points) as opposed to 10 3's and 50 2's (3 points from 3 and 90 points from 2 for a total of 93 points).  This, of course, is a very exaggerated example but even if the shooting percentages are equal, say, for example's sake, .333 and you shoot 9 shots inside the arc and 9 shots outside... inside, you'll score 6 points, outside you'll score 9.

Anyway... that's all to say that I wonder how the RMC/UWSP game will go.  I have a feeling that the game will likely be more of a defensive battle, probably in the 60's.  RMC has what appears to be a more efficient defense, so Point could have some dififculty scoring...

But when you look at the average turnovers for both teams, that might shed some light on what could happen.

RMC turns the ball over an average of 16.6 times and their opponents turn it over an average of 14.9 times.  That's a total of 31.7 turnovers per game.  On the other hand, Point turns it over 9.8 times per game, and their opponents turn it over 12.9 times for a total of 22.7.  So RMC games average 12.7 more possessions per game... but those games also average 9 more turnovers per game.  So really, there's just about 3 more scoring possessions per game.  Point shoots a better percentage from the field, so I think that may be the tipping point.

Now, again, I don't know RMC's style.  I guess I'm making the assumption that it's conventional and not a gimmick... Because that could throw a wrench in things either way... either in RMC's favor if that gimmick works or in Point's favor if it doesn't. 


What style do Guilford and RMC play?  At what pace to they play?  Inside oriented?  Outside oriented?  Zone?  Man?  We've got a lot of numbers here... but those can be affected by different styles of play.

Any Williams fans able to provide that info too?  I'll post a bit of a preview of Point when I'm able.

[amh63]

nescac1
   Have a safe trip to Salem.  Enjoy the stay and the GAMES.  Expect Williams to win and overcome the "home court" advantage.