MBB: NESCAC

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

They might not be reflective of comparison with each other, but I do think those numbers help to illustrate that Whittington maybe further above his peers than previous POYs have been.  There are still strong players in the NESCAC, of course; I just think perhaps Whittington might be a little further ahead of the pack.

[nescac1]

Nice work lefrankenstein, plus one.   I would take Troy (as a senior) over anyone on that list, but that being said, PER does overstate his relative value a bit, not just because of the emphasis on interior play, but also because of the per minute component.  I imagine there are diminishing marginal returns after around 30 minutes of PT, so a player like Troy who gets more time to rest will, of course, be a bit more efficient on a per-minute basis.

I am stunned by Olson's figures.  That definitely shows the limitations of PER.  Nate Robertson is another guy whose value is far higher than his PER -- good decision makers, guys who make the right play, are dependable ball-handers, are unselfish, keep a team organized are invaluable, but that won't always show up in PER.  I mean, would any Amherst fans rather have Schiel than Olson?  I can't imagine.  Yet his PER is more than double Olson's.  Very deceptive.  I'd rank the Jeffs on that list in opposite order from their PER, in fact, Olson, then Zieja (at least when he was at 100 percent), then Schiel.  

I do think Whittington is absolutely stellar this year by the way.  If I was drafting Ephs I've seen play based only on their senior years, it would go Nogelo, Whittington, Coffin, [I'm guessing Wang will fall right about here], Crotty, Chapin, Schultz, Hunt, or something like that.   Coffin and Whittington are very close.  

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Week 3 Regional Rankings are out: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/16/ncaa-2011-regional-rankings-week-3/

[walzy31]

Week 3 Regional Rankings are out: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/16/ncaa-2011-regional-rankings-week-3/

April Fools?

[lefrakenstein]

PER ratings for all Amherst players with over 100 min in conference:

Williamson	27.74
Toomey	27.43
Workman	24.20
Holmes	23.20
Barrise	19.43
Meehan	17.52
Kaasila	17.51
Waller	14.05

Anything above a 15.00 is considered an above average player. One of Amherst's great strengths this year is having a ton of players that can hurt you, as this shows. Really solid rotation with only one statistically below average player, and then only barely. The team just doesn't have the dominant players that Williams and Midd have.

[lefrakenstein]

Here is Williams:

Whittington	44.77
Wang	28.65
Emerson	28.58
Rooke-Lay	20.62
Robertson	16.35
Klemm	15.98
Epley	14.72
Dodson	6.17
Mickens	5.04

Pretty good, especially at the top. Mickens and Dodson are really just not good players.

[lefrakenstein]

And Middlebury:

Sharry	32.18
Locke	26.30
Wholey	22.08
Kizel	17.16
Davis	15.09
Thompson	13.74
Wolfin	11.43

It will be interesting if Midd can stay competitive with Amherst and Williams next year after losing three of their seven rotation players. It will put a lot of pressure on Sharry.

[eph partisan]

Week 3 Regional Rankings are out: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/16/ncaa-2011-regional-rankings-week-3/

April Fools?

walzy, I assume you are referring to the fact that Amherst if 5th in the regional rankings - which must, in fact, be a joke. Amherst has the no. 4 scoring margin in the country and took two of the best teams in Div. III  to the wire in consecutive nights, but somehow is 5th in NE. I understand that playing on the road is important, but wow, something seems wrong with that system when a team that just got drilled by Springfield (WPI) and a team that lost to Salem St. (Becker) are ranked above a team like Amherst.

It will be interesting if Midd can stay competitive with Amherst and Williams next year after losing three of their seven rotation players. It will put a lot of pressure on Sharry.

I have no doubt Midd will stay competitive - I would say that they are actually in a pretty similar position to Williams. As with all defensive-minded players, PER doesn't do most of the Panthers justice; Midd teams are always built on their defense, and I think Wolfin and Kizel will be able to pick up some of the slack on offense.

Meanwhile, although the Ephs only lose Whittington, that is (needless to say) a loss of incredible proportions. We've obviously covered his talents here, but beyond the fact that he is maybe the best low-post scorer in the country, he really opens things up for the Ephs shooters. Emerson is very good, but that may not be a role he can fill. If you take a look at Williams' team for next year, there are many good slashers and shooters, but no real inside presence. I would still pick Williams over Midd, not only because of my natural affiliation, but also because Wang is excellent and I think Maker can play with the offense in such a way that he can emphasize the sorts of talent the Ephs have. But Midd and Williams will both probably be looking up, just a little, at Amherst next year.

Also, lefrakenstein, that is really great stuff. Well done. Do you know what the PER numbers would look like if you weighted assists more highly, as Colby Hoops suggested?

[nescac1]

Thanks again, Lefrakenstein!  I basically agree with all of Eph Partisan's thoughts.  Middlebury will be a VERY different, much smaller team next year ... you figure 6'1 Kizel, 6'2 Alvarez, and 6'5 Jensen will replace the bulk of 6'10 Locke, 6'6 Davis, and 6'5 Wholey's minutes, with Sharry shifting from a physically dominant 4 to a merely large (and very skilled, of course) 5.  Midd won't be as intimidating defensively, especially without the big guy, or as physically imposing inside, but they will be a lot quicker, more of a slashing, perimeter oriented team.  One of their young bigs will really have to improve as well to give Sharry some help inside, as they won't have the luxury of a Davis off the bench.   

Amherst definitely loses the least of the big three, Toomey will slide right in for Meehan, and their front court will be VERY big, VERY deep (Williamson, Holmes, Prowitt, incoming frosh Mussachia is a heck of a bench) and very experienced.  They will be tough to deal with. 

Williams should be interesting.  Whittington is irreplaceable, but Emerson and Mayer are still a very nice center combo.  Mayer, I would bet, had a very good PER overall this year, he put up huge numbers in limited minutes in a few games, although he was up and down.  A lot will depend on how much the two of them can improve in the off-season.  Williams won't have anyone you can just throw the ball into and demand a double team, nor a real defensive intimidator, but they will be perfectly tailored for Maker's system ... at any given time, they will have five guys on the floor who can shoot 3's, run the court, and pass, and at least four (five when Mayer is playing center) who can slash to the basket.   And all five guys will be able to guard well on the perimeter.  I mean, basically, next year's team was an in-and-out three pointer from Wang and a few missed free throws in regulation away from beating Amherst, at Amherst. 

And remember, the Ephs this year started the year as a very young, inexperienced team -- they have really improved throughout the season.  Next year they will have 8 guys back who were rotation players at some point, while this year, they had only four (plus two more who we all expected would play well in Klemm and Emerson), and they have relied heavily on two, at times three, frosh.  It is pretty amazing that as inexperienced as the Ephs are, they haven't really had any slip-ups.  My hope is that if Mayer can be a big contributor, and if everyone else (especially the other two frosh) can improve just a little bit, the collective upgrade in experience can compensate, in the aggregate, for the loss of superstar. 

[walzy31]

Week 3 Regional Rankings are out: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/16/ncaa-2011-regional-rankings-week-3/

April Fools?

walzy, I assume you are referring to the fact that Amherst if 5th in the regional rankings - which must, in fact, be a joke. Amherst has the no. 4 scoring margin in the country and took two of the best teams in Div. III  to the wire in consecutive nights, but somehow is 5th in NE. I understand that playing on the road is important, but wow, something seems wrong with that system when a team that just got drilled by Springfield (WPI) and a team that lost to Salem St. (Becker) are ranked above a team like Amherst.

Yes, thank you for putting into words what I was feeling last night.

Part of me wants an Amherst/Becker 1st Round NCAA match up...but the other part of me is concerned that Becker will make the dance and Amherst won't. The latter wouldn't nearly be as funny as the former.

[Colby Hoops]

If Amherst lost to Bates this weekend would their actually be a chance they didn't make the tournament?

[walzy31]

And remember, the Ephs this year started the year as a very young, inexperienced team -- they have really improved throughout the season.  Next year they will have 8 guys back who were rotation players at some point, while this year, they had only four (plus two more who we all expected would play well in Klemm and Emerson), and they have relied heavily on two, at times three, frosh.  It is pretty amazing that as inexperienced as the Ephs are, they haven't really had any slip-ups.  My hope is that if Mayer can be a big contributor, and if everyone else (especially the other two frosh) can improve just a little bit, the collective upgrade in experience can compensate, in the aggregate, for the loss of superstar. 

I agree that Williams has improved throughout this season, but it is all relative when using terms like "young" and "inexperienced" to describe the Ephs. Williams returned four players from last year's team who played 33 (Wang), 14 (Dodson), 29 (Robertson), and 26 (Whittington) minutes respectively against UW-SP (combining for 38 pts, 21 reb, 5 ast, 6 blk, and 3 stl in the championship game). I understand the gratuations of Rubin, Schultz, & Geoghegan were felt by the program, but I think it is fair to say that you returned a lot of NCAA experience from a year ago.

[walzy31]

If Amherst lost to Bates this weekend would their actually be a chance they didn't make the tournament?

Yeah, I think Amherst would be out...which is crazy at 21-3 where they would have one loss at home (the Bates NESCAC quarterfinal game) and road losses to the #1 and #2 teams in the region. It would have to be considered a Valentine's Day present to Williams, Middlebury, and Western Conn.

[Bucket]

Middlebury will be a VERY different, much smaller team next year ... you figure 6'1 Kizel, 6'2 Alvarez, and 6'5 Jensen will replace the bulk of 6'10 Locke, 6'6 Davis, and 6'5 Wholey's minutes, with Sharry shifting from a physically dominant 4 to a merely large (and very skilled, of course) 5.  Midd won't be as intimidating defensively, especially without the big guy, or as physically imposing inside, but they will be a lot quicker, more of a slashing, perimeter oriented team.  One of their young bigs will really have to improve as well to give Sharry some help inside, as they won't have the luxury of a Davis off the bench.   

Peter Lynch, at 6' 7" will also play a pretty big role next year. He's a low-post banger who fills a lot of space and is an "intangible" guy. It will also be interesting to see how Jack Roberts, at 6' 8", develops.

But yeah, I agree with your assessment of  Kizel, Alvarez, and Jensen. Those guys will definitely be playing big roles for the Panthers next year and beyond.

[eph partisan]

If Amherst lost to Bates this weekend would their actually be a chance they didn't make the tournament?

Yeah, I think Amherst would be out...which is crazy at 21-3 where they would have one loss at home (the Bates NESCAC quarterfinal game) and road losses to the #1 and #2 teams in the region. It would have to be considered a Valentine's Day present to Williams, Middlebury, and Western Conn.

Walzy, I can't imagine that Amherst would drop below Western Conn., even with a loss to Bates, and WPI is definitely going to drop with their most recent loss. Becker will likely win its conference, Western Connecticut likely won't get in if they don't win their conference (that'd be five losses), and I think 2-3 Pool C bids is a reasonable assumption. There's a chance they won't get in - but I think it's a low one.

Perhaps I have too much faith in the rationality of the selection committee...