MBB: NESCAC

[danilogallinariisaballer]

 

I believe it would be simpler for each conference and even at the national level to have BOTH a Best Player (POY) award and a Most Valuable (MVP) award.

Massd3fan;  I think it would be overcomplicating things to assign seperate awards at the end of the season for POY and MVP.  I think as a rule of thumb, you have to finish in the top half of the league to be considered for POY.

And as for the discussion of who is POY,  I'm interested to see how the rest of the season plays out with Rudin and Middlebury playing two good teams in Colby and Bowdoin, and then Trinity and AMH the next.  In looking strictly at Rudin's numbers, they don't blow you away (13.6 ppg 4.7 ass .405 fg%).  Although since I have not seen him play, I can't really speak to how vital he has been to their improvement.  I think that  whichever team wins the league will have the POY.  I don't think this should always be the case, but none of the better teams this year have a player who is statistically dominant. 

[ephoops]

NCAA Regional Rankings are up (http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/ncaa/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/DIIIMBBRANKING2-4-09.pdf)

Middlebury is 2nd, Colby is 7, and Amherst is 9.

Can someone refresh my memory...

How are the regional rankings determined?  Do coaches in the region vote -- if so, who are the coaches in the Northeast region that have a vote?

Does regional record trump overall record?

[Gregory Sager]

NCAA Regional Rankings are up (http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/ncaa/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/DIIIMBBRANKING2-4-09.pdf)

Middlebury is 2nd, Colby is 7, and Amherst is 9.

Can someone refresh my memory...

How are the regional rankings determined?  Do coaches in the region vote -- if so, who are the coaches in the Northeast region that have a vote?

Does regional record trump overall record?

1. Regional rankings are assembled by the NCAA's regional committees, and are based upon the same five primary criteria used by the national committee on Selection Sunday (the national committee consists of one member apiece from each of the eight regional committees). The members of the Northeast Region committee should be listed in the D3 men's basketball handbook, which can be downloaded from the NCAA website. It consists of coaches and ADs.

2. Only those coaches who are on the committee have a say in the regional rankings.

3. Regional record is the only one that counts, because non-region games are not considered within the five primary criteria.

[massd3fan]

+++Massd3fan;  I think it would be overcomplicating things to assign seperate awards at the end of the season for POY and MVP.  I think as a rule of thumb, you have to finish in the top half of the league to be considered for POY. +++

So you are subscribing more to the the most valuable player defintion rather than the best player.  In your view if a team in the lower half of a conference has a Jimmy Bartolotta, he should not be considered, let alone win a POY award.

I don't see how how having two "overcomplcates" anything,  I think we all have seen more years were two players would be deserving of being recognized as "the best" and the most valuable", than we have years were there was a clear standout in both of those categories.

When you consider most conferences have some kind of POY, ROY, COY and at least a first team (some also have a second team) all-conference team, how much extra time is it really going to take to vote for a POY & MVP versus just a POY?

In my opinion, I think Hugenerd's point about Bartolotta is very good one, if your going to only have a single award, then you should clearly state whether it is for the absloute BEST player with no cosideration of the team record.. OR ... it is for the player who was most valuable to his teams success.

The worst thing to just call it the Player of the Year, and then just leave it open to a different interpretation year in and year out.

JMO 

[frank uible]

If someone wants to give an annual Greatest Player in the Universe award in addition to awards by others, how can he be stopped?

[danilogallinariisaballer]

Massd3fan,

I'm not sure who Bartolotta is?  Did he play in the NESCAC? 

Yes, I think the POY should come from a team who has had a successful season.  The NESCAC has only selected POYs from winning teams.  If you look at Jon Pierce from Tufts, he has great stats (#1 ppg, tied #1 rpg), but there is no chance he wins POY.  He will be on the 1st team though, nothing wrong with that.  There is already a DPOY, an ROY, and a POY, so I think that is enough for awards.

Lines for Friday:

Colby +1.5 @ Williams
Trinity -8.5 @ Tufts
Bowdoin +6 @ Middlebury
Amherst -11 @ Bates

Lines for Saturday:

Colby +2.5 @ Middlebury
Bowdoin -7 @ Williams
Conn +2 @ Wesleyan
Trinity +4 @ Bates
Amherst -19 @ Tufts

[Hugenerd]

One thing that is starting to clear up: the all-conference race.  I'd say Baskauskas, Pierce, Schultz, Rudin, Choice are looking like a pretty solid first team at this point, with Baskauskas and Rudin fighting it out for POY.

Not necessarily saying I disagree with you; just posing this question for the sake of sparking a discussion.

Is it possible to win POY on a bad team? How ridiculous do your numbers have to be?

Just throwing it out there.

I have more experience with the NEWMAC, and from what I have observed over the past couple of years it is not possible to win POY from a bottom-half-of-the-league team (this may or may not apply in the NESCAC).  Jimmy Bartolotta has been head shoulders above everyone else in the NEWMAC the last 3 seasons (sophomore, junior, and senior seasons) and he was snubbed the last two years.  In 2006 Bartolotta averaged 21.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.9 spg, 1.0 bpg. Compare that to Ryan Cain's 19.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.2 spg, and .2 bpg.  Last year it was even more disparate, with Bartolotta averaging 23.9 ppg (53.3% FG, 41.5% 3PFG), 5.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2.3 spg, and 1.0 bpg. Meanwhile, the POY winner, Antoine Coleman, averaged 14.5 ppg (48.7% FG, 31.9% 3PFG), 6.0 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.4 spg, and 0.5 bpg. 

So judging from that, I would say that if you want to win POY, it is better to be on the best team in the conference with decent numbers rather than on one of the lower ranked teams and have incredible numbers.

Danilo, read the post above, that is how Bartolotta came into the conversation.  He was first team all-region in the NE last year, he was also an All-American at the end of last year.  This year he was preseason 2nd-team All-American.  He plays for MIT (he also played with Snyder from Williams in high school).

[eclinchy]

I agree that NESCAC appears weak. But, I'd be shocked if Midd wins the tourney. I still say it's Amherst's to lose.

Smith = still hasn't played in a loss.
Locke = still fourth in the freaking nation in blocks.
Rudin = still the frontrunner for POY.

We'll see.

[walzy31]

I agree that NESCAC appears weak. But, I'd be shocked if Midd wins the tourney. I still say it's Amherst's to lose.

Smith = still hasn't played in a loss.
Locke = still fourth in the freaking nation in blocks.
Rudin = still the frontrunner for POY.

We'll see.

I'm with eclinchy on this one. Midd is definitely in the driver's seat to win the league and has to be favorites to do so at this point. Amherst is probably the second favorite to win the tourney and Colby a close third. After that it is Williams and nobody else.

[NY Hoopster]

Walzy31;

Last year I had to correct your wildly off spread on Amherst v. Colby. Now I must correct your logic. Colby beat Rhode Island College, who just beat Amherst. Colby beat Amherst last Saturday. They are therefore ahead of Amherst in any rational analysis of who is favored in the tourney. The regional NCAA poll also agrees, placing Colby at 7, and Amherst at 9. Colby has three of the last players of the week in the league (with Choice repeating and sharing one week with Rudin). This weekend is crucial, but to say Amherst is ahead of Colby at this point ignores reality.

[walzy31]

Walzy31;

Last year I had to correct your wildly off spread on Amherst v. Colby. Now I must correct your logic. Colby beat Rhode Island College, who just beat Amherst. Colby beat Amherst last Saturday. They are therefore ahead of Amherst in any rational analysis of who is favored in the tourney. The regional NCAA poll also agrees, placing Colby at 7, and Amherst at 9. Colby has three of the last players of the week in the league (with Choice repeating and sharing one week with Rudin). This weekend is crucial, but to say Amherst is ahead of Colby at this point ignores reality.

NYHoopster,

I am not denying that Amherst is behind Colby in a lot of key benchmarks (head to head, ncaa regional rankings, nescac standings). I would still set the prices on Postseason NESCAC champion at the following:

Middlebury +125
Amherst +190
Colby +300
Williams +510
The Field +800
Selecting one team from the Field of your choice +1400

[nescac1]

Great article on Bartolotta in the NYTimes:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/sports/ncaabasketball/06mit.html?_r=2&ref=sports

I wonder if the NESCAC tried to recruit him?  I imagine Williams (in particular, since they recruited his teammate Snyder) and Amherst MUST have been interested, even if the article doesn't mention that, and obviously with him Amherst might have won three national titles and Williams might have been a contender for at least one  -- perhaps he wanted an engineering school so they never had a shot ...

[formerbant10]

Walzy31;

Last year I had to correct your wildly off spread on Amherst v. Colby. Now I must correct your logic. Colby beat Rhode Island College, who just beat Amherst. Colby beat Amherst last Saturday. They are therefore ahead of Amherst in any rational analysis of who is favored in the tourney. The regional NCAA poll also agrees, placing Colby at 7, and Amherst at 9. Colby has three of the last players of the week in the league (with Choice repeating and sharing one week with Rudin). This weekend is crucial, but to say Amherst is ahead of Colby at this point ignores reality.

The only way to judge the teams would be the head-to-head match up.  Using the common opponent does not work as Colby lost to Bowdoin and Trinity while Amherst beat both of them.  Player of the Week has absolutely nothing to do with it.
Colby beat Amherst by 5 on the 2nd leg of a Maine trip, not as impressive as you're making it out to be.  A very good win, but it's not like they won by 20 on Friday night.  Instead, on Friday night Colby was down by as many as 16 and never closer than 7 to Trinity.
There are still 2 weekends left and a lot can change. 

[booyakasha]

Walzy31;

Last year I had to correct your wildly off spread on Amherst v. Colby. Now I must correct your logic. Colby beat Rhode Island College, who just beat Amherst. Colby beat Amherst last Saturday. They are therefore ahead of Amherst in any rational analysis of who is favored in the tourney. The regional NCAA poll also agrees, placing Colby at 7, and Amherst at 9. Colby has three of the last players of the week in the league (with Choice repeating and sharing one week with Rudin). This weekend is crucial, but to say Amherst is ahead of Colby at this point ignores reality.

The only way to judge the teams would be the head-to-head match up.  Using the common opponent does not work as Colby lost to Bowdoin and Trinity while Amherst beat both of them.  Player of the Week has absolutely nothing to do with it.
Colby beat Amherst by 5 on the 2nd leg of a Maine trip, not as impressive as you're making it out to be.  A very good win, but it's not like they won by 20 on Friday night.  Instead, on Friday night Colby was down by as many as 16 and never closer than 7 to Trinity.
There are still 2 weekends left and a lot can change. 

A couple of points.

All nescac teams have to travel over the course of the season. The trip from Bowdoin to Colby for the second leg of a road trip is about 45 minutes, no different than the 45 mins from Trinity to Amherst or Wesleyan to Conn, and shorther than Bates to Tufts or Williams to Midd. I don't think as much as the outcome can be attributed to travel as you make it out to seem.

Second, there are a couple of vastly different ways to view the 5 point difference in the final score. I would tend to agree with you if the game was back and forth down the stretch and Colby made a couple of plays at the end to close it out, although that isn't how it went down. Colby was up 11 at the half, withstood Amherst run at the start of the second, then pumped the lead back up to double digits with 2:30 left to play, at which point the game was effectively over.

I agree it is futile to play the common opponents game, but I think some stock should be taken in the fact that Colby lost games early as opposed to Amherst who seems to be losing more of late. I'd much prefer the team that is maturing over the course of the season to the team that is regressing to the mean.

We can certainly reevaluate after this weekend.

[Hugenerd]

Walzy31;

Last year I had to correct your wildly off spread on Amherst v. Colby. Now I must correct your logic. Colby beat Rhode Island College, who just beat Amherst. Colby beat Amherst last Saturday. They are therefore ahead of Amherst in any rational analysis of who is favored in the tourney. The regional NCAA poll also agrees, placing Colby at 7, and Amherst at 9. Colby has three of the last players of the week in the league (with Choice repeating and sharing one week with Rudin). This weekend is crucial, but to say Amherst is ahead of Colby at this point ignores reality.

The only way to judge the teams would be the head-to-head match up.  Using the common opponent does not work as Colby lost to Bowdoin and Trinity while Amherst beat both of them.  Player of the Week has absolutely nothing to do with it.
Colby beat Amherst by 5 on the 2nd leg of a Maine trip, not as impressive as you're making it out to be.  A very good win, but it's not like they won by 20 on Friday night.  Instead, on Friday night Colby was down by as many as 16 and never closer than 7 to Trinity.
There are still 2 weekends left and a lot can change. 

A couple of points.

All nescac teams have to travel over the course of the season. The trip from Bowdoin to Colby for the second leg of a road trip is about 45 minutes, no different than the 45 mins from Trinity to Amherst or Wesleyan to Conn, and shorther than Bates to Tufts or Williams to Midd. I don't think as much as the outcome can be attributed to travel as you make it out to seem.

Second, there are a couple of vastly different ways to view the 5 point difference in the final score. I would tend to agree with you if the game was back and forth down the stretch and Colby made a couple of plays at the end to close it out, although that isn't how it went down. Colby was up 11 at the half, withstood Amherst run at the start of the second, then pumped the lead back up to double digits with 2:30 left to play, at which point the game was effectively over.

I agree it is futile to play the common opponents game, but I think some stock should be taken in the fact that Colby lost games early as opposed to Amherst who seems to be losing more of late. I'd much prefer the team that is maturing over the course of the season to the team that is regressing to the mean.

We can certainly reevaluate after this weekend.

You also need to remember that Amherst had a tremendously easy non-conference schedule, and they really didnt play anyone early.  I think their recent losses are more a function of them playing stronger competition than of them playing well in the beginning of the year and playing worse now.  In fact, it is tough to say whether they are playing better or worse now than at the beginning of the year because there was no real test for them in their non-conference schedule for anyone to say" "Wow, they are playing great", or the opposite. 

Amherst has really only played 13 non-conference games (not counting games against conference teams, which dont count as conference games), and they are 11-2 of those games.  2 of those wins (Caltech and Pomono are not in region), so they are 9-2 in region, out of conference.  Of those 9 teams, only 3 have winning records and all 3 of those teams are either from the GNAC (Lasell, Emmaneul) or MASCAC (Westfield) (meaning a lot of those opponents' wins arent against very good competition). They also have no wins against teams ranked in the NE top 10 (NCAA regional rankings). Overall, their OWP is .435, with their in region OWP being .460.  However, if you look at the OWP of teams they have beat (overall, meaning not counting RIC and Brandeis), it drops to 0.387.