MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

It's over.  Good effort by the Ephs but the 3's were just not falling.  Wang  / Schultz were great but everyone else had trouble converting shots.  Congrats on a great year, making NESCAC semis and beating 'Herst on the road despite learning a new system and tons of injury adversity.  With Wang, Rubin, Schultz, Dodson, Geoghegan and Whittington / Timmins off the bench, Ephs are absolutely loaded next year.  Considering who Midd and Amherst lose, easy to be optimistic as an Ephs fan, assuming they get a little better luck with team health.  Would have been nice to win today, but tough to do shooting the way the Ephs did -- they missed a ton of 3's they usually make, and Amherst played well on offense.   If the Ephs can find another ball handler off the bench (either frosh Wells or a recruit) they really won't have any holes.  This team had the talent to go further, but just couldn't find a consistent groove ... with Joe G. and Wang starting, hopefully next year will be a whole different story.  

[nescac1]

Right BankShotCharlie, whatever.  Amherst deserved to win today.  But I would love to hear the Amherst excuses (just like the 2007 championship game, Shalvoy this, bad luck that) had, say, Baskauskas missed the second half of the year instead of Geoghegan ... explanations are not the same as excuses, by the way.   Williams could have shot better, and they didn't. 

[walzy31]

NESCAC Semi-Final Lines:

Middlebury -9.5
Vs.
Bowdoin
O/U: 126.0
Prop: O/U Ben Rudin's Points: 24.5
Prop: Will Andrew Locke, getting a 0.5 block handicap, have more blocks himself than the Bowdoin team put together? Yes -125; No -115

Amherst -8.5
Vs. (@ Middlebury)
Williams
O/U: 154.5
Prop: O/U Amherst 3Pt FGA: 19.5
Prop: Will James Wang outscore Glenn Wong by more than 18.5 points? Yes +100; No -120

Actual:

Middlebury 76 Bowdoin 46
Middlebury (Cover by 20.5)
O/U 126.0 (Under; Cover  by 4.0)
Rudin O/U 24.5 (Over; Cover by 5.5)
Locke O/U more blocks than Bowdoin getting 0.5 blocks? (Yes; Cover  by 4.5 although I find it hard to believe that in 40 minutes Bowdoin didn't have a block)

Amherst 86 Williams 74
Amherst (Cover by 3.5)
O/U 154.5 (Over Cover  by 5.5)
Amherst O/U 3pt FGA 19.5 (Over by 0.5)
Wang outscores Wong by 18.5? (No; Cover by 4.5)

[lefrakenstein]

What's the line for tomorrow's game? Prop bets?

Man, I really want Amherst to win. Midd is a great team, and they will play in the tournament no matter what, but Amherst has really played well down the stretch and they deserve to get in too. I can' imagine the team that was out there today losing to Wes or blowing a huge 2nd half lead against RIC.

Very, very impressed by Wang today. Also, still mystified that Whittington doesn't play more, especially with Joe G out. He has the potential to be a good one.

As much as I hate to say it, it's tough to watch Snyder's career end. I really admired his improvement over the course of 4 years.

Also, does this mean Williams has to take the picture of their winning the NESCAC championship in Lefrak 3 years ago off the men's basketball home page? There should be some kind of statute of limitations on that.

[frank uible]

As Paul Brown used to say, "after losing say little; after winning say less".

[walzy31]

I realize Walzy has a pretty good history with his spreads; but not so sure on the prop bets.  James Wang is a fun player, but I think he has scored over 18.5 points once, maybe twice, in his entire CAREER (and his career high came against Tufts, which isn't exactly known for tough D) ... if Wong makes a few shots, say five points, Wang will have to score 24, something he hasn't come within even a few points of ... I'll take the under on that one.  I am also VERY confident that if Wang outscores Wong (by the way, I do like the Wang vs. Wong deal you have going on this one, well played) by 18.5 points, there is no way in hell Williams would ALSO lose by at least 9. 

As for your Williams vs. Amherst spread, I'll take the under.  Williams did just beat Amherst by double digits, at Amherst ... without Wheeler yes and that makes a big difference, but still, that would be a 20 point swing in two weeks.  If Geoghegan plays and is close to 100 percent (may be doubtful?) I'd take Williams outright.  Same with Midd-Bowdoin.  Midd is better, but Bowdoin seems to be hot at the right time, sort of like Williams in '07.

Nescac1,
Wang 14 - Wong 0. You read that line well.
20 point swing in two weeks happened though. You read that line poorly.
I hope you didn't lose too much taking Bowdoin and Williams to win outright (aka "moneyline").   

[lefrakenstein]

I realize Walzy has a pretty good history with his spreads; but not so sure on the prop bets.  James Wang is a fun player, but I think he has scored over 18.5 points once, maybe twice, in his entire CAREER (and his career high came against Tufts, which isn't exactly known for tough D) ... if Wong makes a few shots, say five points, Wang will have to score 24, something he hasn't come within even a few points of ... I'll take the under on that one.  I am also VERY confident that if Wang outscores Wong (by the way, I do like the Wang vs. Wong deal you have going on this one, well played) by 18.5 points, there is no way in hell Williams would ALSO lose by at least 9. 

As for your Williams vs. Amherst spread, I'll take the under.  Williams did just beat Amherst by double digits, at Amherst ... without Wheeler yes and that makes a big difference, but still, that would be a 20 point swing in two weeks.  If Geoghegan plays and is close to 100 percent (may be doubtful?) I'd take Williams outright.  Same with Midd-Bowdoin.  Midd is better, but Bowdoin seems to be hot at the right time, sort of like Williams in '07.

Nescac1,
Wang 14 - Wong 0. You read that line well.
20 point swing in two weeks happened though. You read that line poorly.
I hope you didn't lose too much taking Bowdoin and Williams to win outright (aka "moneyline").   

In all fairness he only said he would take the Ephs outright if Geoghegan played.

[TheHerst2and4]

 With Wang, Rubin, Schultz, Dodson, Geoghegan and Whittington / Timmins off the bench, Ephs are absolutely loaded next year.  Considering who Midd and Amherst lose, easy to be optimistic as an Ephs fan, assuming they get a little better luck with team health.   

I don't know if I would crown the Ephs, the 010 champs. I agree with you they will have a good team, but I was very impressed with the way Amherst's young guys have stepped up and carried the load for the team this year. I'd rather think about next year's teams, next year.
Today the young guys stepped up in crucial moments (Waller and Holmes' trey balls, Meehan taking it strong to the hole) I think they were the difference maker today.

[nescac1]

Certainly far from crowing them champs, just that there is a lot of reason for optimism (and given that at least for the Ephs, this season is over, that's pretty much what there is to look forward to).  I agree that Amherst's young guys looked strong.  If Meehan gets a consistent outside shot he'll be unstoppable, he is very, very strong for a guard and can get into the lane at will.  Waller as I said earlier is a start in the making.  Holmes looked good as well for a frosh big man, I imagine he will be a solid starter next year.   At the same time, Bradley, Holsey and Baskauskas are huge losses, especally the latter ...

Tomorrow's title should be great.  Amherst may still need a win to lock up a postseason birth, and Middlebury will be VERY fired up with the crowd behind them looking to avenge last week's loss.  Should be a great game.  Midd is deeper and much stronger inside, but Amherst has more perimeter firepower.  Meehan vs. Rudin should be a fun match up of two point guards who can really penetrate ..

[Bucket]

Surprised no one has mentioned Ben Rudin's career-high 30-point game this afternoon. (He had previously scored 29 in a game two or three times perviously.) And this after having jammed his finger so badly he had to pop it back into place two minutes into the game.

Looking forward to tomorrow. Edwards on Baskauskas should be a battle, as will Rudin against whomever the Lord Jeffs throw at him.

Pepin will be rocking. Go Panthers.

[nescac1]

I'd say unless Baskauskas outscores Rudin by 30 tomorrow, Rudin has POY locked up.  Quite a career, four year starter, ROY, likely POY, and two NCAA tourneys ...

WPI and Salem State both lost, making things a heck of a lot tougher for the 'herst if they don't pull it out tomorrow ... lots of new england teams in the pool C mix with Salem, WPI, RIC / Umass Dartmouth loser, and tomorrow's NESCAC loser ...

[lefrakenstein]

Rudin has had an amazing career. I was always a fan of his b/c he was such a great distributor in his freshman/sophomore years, really racking up the assists. As the scoring onus has fallen more on his shoulders he has really proven that he can excel in that role as well.

I think I remember a conversation with a Midd fan (prob Old Guy) near the beginning of the season where I argued that Rudin was the most important player on the Panther team and the Midd fan argued that it was Smith.

Still feel that way?

[lefrakenstein]

 With Wang, Rubin, Schultz, Dodson, Geoghegan and Whittington / Timmins off the bench, Ephs are absolutely loaded next year.  Considering who Midd and Amherst lose, easy to be optimistic as an Ephs fan, assuming they get a little better luck with team health.   

I don't know if I would crown the Ephs, the 010 champs. I agree with you they will have a good team, but I was very impressed with the way Amherst's young guys have stepped up and carried the load for the team this year. I'd rather think about next year's teams, next year.
Today the young guys stepped up in crucial moments (Waller and Holmes' trey balls, Meehan taking it strong to the hole) I think they were the difference maker today.

Also, the Jeffs kept Taylor Barrise in the back pocket today. He's going to be nasty, mark my words. He may even start next year (Holmes, Wheeler, Waller, Barrise, Meehan). It's remarkable what a year of experience can do for the freshman. (see Conor Meehan 2008 vs Conor Meehan 2009)

Beyond those 5 though it's tough to see who is going to contribute off the bench. Of the current roster only Bennett jumps to mind. hopefully either the frosh or the lesser-used '12s (Zaitz, Johnson, Prowitt) will step up.

On the whole, I would bet on the Jeffs making a step forward next year rather than a step back.

Snyder is no small loss for the Ephs.

[Old Guy]

No, I wouldn't say Smith was more important to Middlebury's success this year. I don't remember saying that, but I might have, based on last season. This year, Ben Rudin has raised his game to a level that has taken us all somewhat by surprise. He was always a good player; as I've said many times, from foul line to foul line the best I've seen at Middlebury. But in the past he was capable of making questionable decisions at the hoop. This year those shots all go in - he finishes, and how. And again (sorry for repeating myself) he shoots 10+% better from the line, a big deal. Smith was hampered by injuries early and has not had the same season he had last year, but he's still a really good rebounder and defender, a force at the hoop, and a terrific leader and teammate.

I love Bauskaskus - 6'6" with feathery jump shot with range, takes it to the hoop, rebounds, plays D, and stays within their system at all times. You can certainly make an argument that he's the best player in the league. But nobody's had a better season than Ben Rudin, and no one has been more important to his team. In the second half of the season, in big game after big game, he has been spectacularly consistent, or consistently spectacular. Don't ask me, ask his opponents, the guys on your teams, and the coaches. 30 points today.

Today's games: a strange first half in the Midd-Bowdoin game - the score was like an eighth grade girls basketball game, as one Midd fan said. Every basket earned with blood, sweat, and tears: 30-18 at the half, 10-10 after ten minutes. I had a bad feeling when Locke picked up his third foul in the first half. He only played 18 minutes (4 blocked shots), but he does change the game. Guards go in the paint and just turn around and dribble back out. It takes more than length to block shots: he's a good athlete.  Edwards did a nice job on Jackson, who looks to me like their best player. Smith/Locke/Sharry were effective against 6'8" Mark Phillips (wasn't he Princess Di's lover?).

I loved watching Williams-Amherst in our gym - and they didn't disappoint. Two really good teams, with fast, talented players with heart. 31-31 at the half. Point counterpoint. Synder/Schultz - terrific players: they do everything. What a team this would be with Geoghagen playing goalie on defense and the low post on offense. Williams is not great on the baseline and it showed today. Wang didn't play much against us in our game with the Ephs, but he played most of today's game. He's really energetic, fast and strong, no quit in him.

Amherst is better, I think, than Williams this year, deeper. They bring Wheeler off the bench - he's strong and hits NBA threes. Williams played off Meehan, dared him to shoot from the outside, and he hit two long threes (that's not a good-looking shot). He's so good attacking the basket - he had a great game. Two weeks ago, Glenn Wong really hurt us on Amherst senior day, scored 12 and hit a couple of long threes - didn't even get off the bench today. Waller was impressive, inside and outside.  Holmes looks like he wandered into the gym, but he was big when the Jeffs went on their run to start the second half and build up the lead they would never relinquish.

Williams sent a pretty good contingent of students to the game (a couple they might have left home). I really didn't see a single Amherst student at the game, but I might have missed some. Lots of parents. Is that normal? Will there be any Jeffs there tomorrow? A three hour drive on a nice day from Amherst (two from Williamstown).

[BankShotCharlie]

Nescac1, can you just try one time to make a post without using the words SHOULDA, WOULDA, COULDA??

I dare you