MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Mainehoops, Choice is a huge loss, and he isn't all Colby loses.  They also lose Haylon, a key player for them last year and one of the best long range shooters in NESCAC, Sherman, who was one of the their top scorers, and their starting center, who was the only guy above 6'6 on the roster.  Other than Russell, who benefited from all the attention teams had to pay to Choice and Haylon on the perimeter, they don't have any proven scorers coming back, and no frosh who really played much at all last year to count on to explode onto the scene.  Colby only has ONE returning player who averaged more than six points a game, and he is gonna be doubled a lot next year considering Colby loses essentially ALL of their perimeter shooters (the entire returning roster hit 23 3's all of last year, which is the same numbers of 3's as Williams nailed in its two final four games!).  You just have to wonder where the scoring will come from next year barring some guys making enormous strides in the offseason, which is of course always possible for any team. 

I think the pre-season top of the league is clear: Williams, Amherst and Midd in some order, barring injuries for those teams or big-time impact players at other schools.  The bottom is also clear, Conn and Tufts.  The middle is more of a jumble, but I think Trinity has the most experienced talent, the question is just how quickly they adjust to a new coach.  Wesleyan and Bates each return one of the top players in the league, as do Colby and Bowdoin, but I think Wesleyan and Bates are both a lot deeper in terms of having multiple proven dynamic scorers.  I'd therefore go Trinity-Wesleyan-Bates-Bowdoin-Colby for that group.  But obviously, it is really, really early, and a lot can change before the season begins. 

[jayhawk]

Interesting note on Amherst recruit who is a Point Guard, one of five finalists for most valuable basketball player in the state of North Carolina, see link below:
http://varsity.kinston.com/articles/bullock-975-reggie-best.html

[JSceltics17]

Not too worried about my NESCAC street cred...

As for my prediction about 4 teams from the NESCAC making the tournament, I stand by it.  Bowdoin, Trinity, Amherst, and Middlebury all made it 3 years ago and their was definitely no 'perfect storm' as Speedy pointed out. 

In order for this to happen, Amherst, Bowdoin, Williams, and Middlebury all need to have that non-league domination that Middlebury seemed to have all year. Middlebury and Williams WIN the games they are supposed to win.  Bowdoin and Amherst were too inconsistent, losing out of league games and some NESCAC contests which shattered their chances.

Mainehoops - thanks for the feedback.  I would argue that Williams is not as good as this years team, as would most people who watch Blake Schultz play basketball....the same goes for Colby and Adam Choice.  Going to be a tough year for the Mules.

"I don't think anyone objective would even "argue" that Hanley is the best player in NESCAC.   I'd say Wang, Whittington (both of whom could well be preseason all-Americans), Meehan, Sharry (probably in that order)" Nescac 1
-You named 4 players, 2 of which Will Hanley has beaten hands-down statistically, and 2 of which play for teams that were ranked below Bowdoin in the NESCAC....then the next guy you listed was Hanley, so actually YOU are "arguing" that Hanley is possibly the best player in the NESCAC. 

In terms of Hanley's partner in crime, O'Connell, he scored 275 points this season.  Bowdoin's two starting guards COMBINED for 241 points with over 10 minutes of playing time than O'Connell was playing...those numbers don't add up in terms of trying to win a game, so the fact that he was coming off the bench is irrelevant. If Sharry is one of your top 3 players in the NESCAC I should point out that O'Connell and Sharry played in the same conference in high school and O'Connell had his first of 2 co-league MVP's (Jr, Sr year) and the state scoring title before Sharry even started for Boston College High his senior year.


Could someone help me out with Hamilton?  Any chance they crack the top half of the league?

[nescac1]

Hanley is a very good player.  But he didn't make either all-NESCAC team last year, unlike Wang, Ellis, Whittington, Sharry, and Russell, all of whom return.  Meehan certainly would have made one of the teams as well had he not been injured half of the season.  So the coaches seem to think that Hanley is, at best, the seventh best player in the conference.  And I'd say all of the above-listed players had better stats than him last year.  In all events, he isn't in Wang or Whittington's league -- those are two of the best returning players in the country.  I think Meehan will be as well assuming he returns to full health.  

Compare Sharry's numbers to Hanley's (and Sharry's team was more successful as well, plus Sharry was hurt limiting him for part of the season):

Hanley, 13.8 ppg, 9 rpg, 1 bpg, .50/.35/.56 percent shooting,
Sharry, 13.7 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 bpg, .53/.41/.75 shooting.

Basically, they had equal production, but Sharry played over five minutes less per game, and was a much more efficient player in terms of shooting.  Again, even though Sharry missed part of the conference season with injury, the coaches still named him all-conference over Hanley.  

And so what if O'Connell put up huge numbers in high school?  There is a LOT more space to shoot in high school (or for that matter, in summer league games) than in NESCAC, where you usually need to be able to create your own shot.  Sharry has proven he can do that at the NESCAC level.  

Schultz is definitely a huge loss for Williams.  But Williams still has the best two players in the league, and last year's frosh, Robertson and Klemm, should really emerge as big time players and replace a significant chunk of Rubin and Schultz's production.  If the frosh can give them good production off the bench, they should be OK.  I wouldn't expect an undefeated year in NESCAC again, but they are still at worst one of the teams to beat.   I guess I just remember Williams beating Bowdoin by about 45 last year ... a game in which both O'Connell and Hanley didn't do a heck of a lot.   

I do think three NESCAC teams should make the tourney next year.  They could really beat up on New England which looks weaker; outside of MIT, few powerhouse teams returning.  Four will still be a huge long-shot and probably requires a team outside the top three winning the conference tourney ... three at large bids would be very, very unlikely barring that type of upset.     

[mainehoops]

Nescac1 - You make a lot of good points about Colby that are tough to argue with, but  I can tell you that outside Choice, the other players that graduated are all very replaceable with players they have.  Also, I think it is difficult for you to analyze the rest of the league, just because mostly every game you saw last year was a blowout.  Am I wrong?  I don't mean any disrespect by that, but seriously - I would think it'd be difficult to assess the talent levels of the Nescac teams when you're seeing 20+ point blowouts every night?  As a life-long Colby fan - I wish I had this problem.  Anyways, I think you putting Amherst in the same conversation as Middlebury right now is crazy.  Middlebury is loaded and Amherst returns a 3-6 squad.  That Sharry fellow really knows how to ball.  And I also have no idea after seeing Bowdoin play last year what makes them a potential NCAA team.  Making the NCAA is very hard - getting over .500 in league is no guarantee.  If NCAA is what is expected from Bowdoin players and fans, then I envision a very disappointing season for the Polar Bears.

[nescac1]

Amherst put up a fairly gaudy record, and only lost to Williams by three in Williamstown, with a healthy Meehan.  Once he went down, that killed them; they didn't really have a back-up point guard who did anything close to what he provided, and they fell apart in his absence.  Amherst only graduates one impact player.  They also had three very talented frosh play big minutes last year.  If they are a bit healthier (in addition to Meehan, Holmes and Waller were limited by injuries last year) and the frosh develop as you'd expect, plus add in likely impact frosh Toomey whose pedigree is impressive, they are pretty stacked: Meehan, Barrise, Workman (who looked very good as a frosh), Waller (who figures to return to his first year form, at a minimum) and Holmes, with Kaasila, Williamson (best athlete in the conference other than Whittington, huge potential), and Toomey as the top three off the bench.  That is a very talented (not to mention ENORMOUS) top eight, and a much more experienced team than last year's squad.    I am confident that they will give Williams and Midd a run for their money next year. 

[nescac1]

Have folks been following Jeremy Lin, out of Harvard?  Outplayed John Wall head-to-head in the summer league, signed by Golden State to a partially-guaranteed contract.  He and Amherst's all-American Brian Baskauskas played together for several years in high school (Lin was a year behind Baskauskas) ... must have been a heck of a high school team. 

[Hugenerd]

Have folks been following Jeremy Lin, out of Harvard?  Outplayed John Wall head-to-head in the summer league, signed by Golden State to a partially-guaranteed contract.  He and Amherst's all-American Brian Baskauskas played together for several years in high school (Lin was a year behind Baskauskas) ... must have been a heck of a high school team. 

Yeah, I know all about him. He was on the Palo Alto high school team that upset Mater Dei and won the D2 California State championship in 2006 (Mater Dei had Duke recruit Taylor King, who is the 5th all-time leading scorer in California State history with 3200+ points. King was (in)famous for committing to UCLA as a 9th grader, then decided to go to Duke and later transferred to Villianova). Lin didnt have any scholarship offers out of high school (he was actually heavily recruited by MIT), went to Harvard to play D1 and he has done pretty well for himself.  He is a very quick athletic player.  He is a point guard, but he will go attack the rim.  He has some pretty crazy dunks in traffic that you can see on youtube (there was one at the end of the UConn game that was two handed in traffic, and a few other really incredible dunks I can think of from Ivy league play).

[jayhawk]

Brief blurb on incoming Amherst Big Man:http://staugustine.com/sports/high-school/2010-07-18/all-decade-boys-basketball-paterick-stachitas-lead-charge-0

[JSceltics17]

Got a chance to see Jeremy Lin play at UConn this past season.  He had over 30 points. He's a hard-nose player with a big upside in terms of playing the point position for Golden State.  Between Monta Ellis, Stephon Curry, and Jeremy Lin they will have a lot of guard power and explosive fast breaks.

How do people feel about the 3 guard offense?

Villanova uses it.  They had it with Corey Fisher, Scottie Reynolds, and Maalik Wayns and also years before with Randy Foye, Kyle Lowry and Scottie Reynolds.

Any NESCAC teams use this offense? Most SF/3-men seem to be slashers with decent height.


BTW Lin's younger brother was visiting NESCAC school's this spring, http://voice.paly.net/node/22187

[tball]

Lin's brother is going to Dickinson College in Carlisle, PA

[Wydown Blvd.]

Im sneaking over from the UAA to comment on the 3 guard offense... its summer, so Im bored 
WashU has used it too... Cam Smith, Aaron Thompson, and Wallis were all guards. In fact, Tyler Nading was a converted 3-man turned into a 4. So, as we saw from their success, it works.
The philosophy behind it is to try get the best players on the floor even if they have to move one position down (ie Thompson from 2 to 1 when Wallis was hurt) or one up (Nading from 3 to 4) to adapt to allow the best five to be on the floor together.

[nescac1]

Speaking of O'Connell, Bowdoin picked up a recruit who sounds like a very similar player, also a 6'4 wing with deep shooting range, Andrew Maslinger:

http://baskingridge.patch.com/articles/ridge-basketball-trio-embark-on-new-path

Maslinger was first team all-county in New Jersey and sounds like he could contribute early on with his shooting.  Even more impressive, Middlebury point guard recruit Joe Kizel was first team all-state in the second-largest division (by school size) in New Jersey:

http://highschoolsports.nj.com/news/article/-6990993527342641334/nj-boys-basketball-all-state-all-group-all-area-teams/

Midd, it sounds like, got a strong, balanced recruiting class, with a 6'4 wing from California, a PG, and a 6'8 shot-blocking center to eventually step in for Locke.  Seems like Amherst (Toomey and Buckner, etc.), Williams (Rooke-Ley and Epley, etc.) and Midd may have further distanced themselves from the pack with very strong incoming frosh from all over the country, unless some other schools are bringing in guys who no one has talked about yet.  Tufts, Conn and Colby in particular desperately need an infusion of young players to step in right away.  In terms of New England players, only Matarazzo at Bates sounds like he could be a major impact player in NESCAC next year, although of course this type of info is always really sketchy at the D-3 level ...

[jayhawk]

http://njhighschoolbasketball.blogspot.com/

Note on Kizel and other play on team who decided who was apparently offered by Williams but decided to go to prep school in hopes of going IVY

[JSceltics17]

"The philosophy behind it is to try get the best players on the floor even if they have to move one position down (ie Thompson from 2 to 1 when Wallis was hurt) or one up (Nading from 3 to 4) to adapt to allow the best five to be on the floor together."

Wydown Blvd. - I agree! Some teams such as Memphis, and Salem State College do not start 5 guys in the actual positions but rather play their best 5 and get up and down the floor.  It seems like there are a lot of talented guards coming into the NESCAC. A guard-heavy team leads towards fast breaks and pressing defenses.

It will be interesting to see how teams use their incoming guards, especially on teams such as Middlebury who were successful last year.

I've noticed the recruits seem to be from all over the country more so than most rosters have shown the past couple of years, am I right in thinking this?