MBB: NESCAC

[Old Guy]

Couldn't get to the Midd-Castleton game tonight, but the box score tells some tales: Locke didn't play - don't know why; Sharry had 21 points (9-12 from the floor), 14 boards (7 offensive), 6 blocks; Kizell had 8 pts, 6 rebs, 6 assists in 28 minutes off the bench. Middlebury's backcourt  (Wolfin, Thompson, Kizell) all played more than 25 minutes.

Again this year, the team has depth and balance (8 players averaging between 6-13 points, not counting tonight).

Ryan Wholey had a big night - 19 points, 6 rebounds, 4 steals. With Middlebury's size up front (6'10", 6'8", 6'6") and strength in the backcourt, if Wholey is productive at the 3 Middlebury has a dimension it lacked at times last year (cf Williams' Shultz). He's a team captain, shoots the ball (3 threes tonight), plays good D, gets out on the break. Could be a key.

[eph partisan]

Wang has been turning the ball over like this going back to last year, and while the rest of his numbers are excellent, it seems strange to blame lack of cohesion when this is not a new problem. Can he put up similar numbers playing the 2 on offense?

Anyone who has gotten to see the Ephs play, how has the team been defensively?

[Colby Hoops]

Colby got back on track by beating a 1-6 UNE team last night.  Russell had 21 and 15, but the important news from the game was junior  forward Kyle Donovan.  Donovan put in 20 pts on 8-10 shooting including a pair of threes.  He missed the first two games of the season with an injury, and missed significant portions of his first two seasons due to injury as well, but when healthy he has the talent to be a much needed third option for Colby.  He can jump out of the gym and provides energy at 6'6", and as long as he can keep the turnovers down he should be an effective scorer.

Foreman continues to provide an outside option for the mules, knocking down two more threes putting him at 7-12 from distance on the year.  Whitmore seems to have settled on a rotation of Van Loenen, Foreman, Donovan, Russell and Beaulieu with Fischer and Orchingwa the main contributors off the bench.

UNE is not a particularly impressive win considering Bowdoin already dismantled them 80-39, but its nice to see Donovan returning and a more clear rotation.

As for Wang, I think the turnovers are something that you have to live with considering his production and the amount of time he has the ball.  Particularly in an offense with a lot of back-cutting, there are going to be some turnovers trying to force backdoor passes. 

[Bucket]

Locke didn't play - don't know why

He was on the bench in street clothes. Reports are that he has had the flu.

[amh63]

Nice "chatter" wrt to last night's games.  The competition for this Amherst team should improve this weekend in the "regional" tournament.  Amherst plays Westfield St. first and then Elms.  Elms beat Amherst last year about this time and their roster shows that they have the size to compete with Amherst up front.
Several other observations from last night's game.  Waller still seems to be "searching " for his role on this young team. IMO, he disappears for long stretches in a game and has too many turnovers.  Last night he showed flashes of his talent when he went strong to the basket and put down a one hand dunk over a defender.  
This team is slowly eliminating turnovers .....improving their outside shooting or finding someone who is hot from outside.  Still not shooting foul shots well.  
Man to man defense seems good overall.  However, when there is very good player beating his Amherst defender, there is much work, IMO, on team and "help side" defense.  This is needed especially if there is more rotation of players this year and new combinations are on the floor.  During one period in last night's game, Amherst went both "small" and young.  Two first year guards and Bennett up front with Workman and Williamson.
Amherst is a team in progress at this time of the year.  By January, let us hope the rotations are set for conference play.

[nescac1]

Colby Hoops, as usual, good analysis (re: Wang in this case): your hoops acument always comes through in your commentary.  Wang will always have a fair amount of turnovers given (1) as you note, the style the Ephs play, (2) how much he is counted on to create offense with aggressive play, and (3) his ball handling responsibilities.  That being said, he could still probably stand to turn it over a little less / learn when to dial things back just a tad-- just about the only weakness in his overall floor game, which continues to improve.  His shooting numbers both this year and last year have been flat out insane, he plays very good defense (rarely fouls yet accumulates a fair number of steals, an impressive combo) and rebounds very well for his size.  If he can cut the TO's down to more like 2-3 per game, I think he is worthy of first-team all american consideration, even as a Junior.  As is Whittington, for that matter -- I can't imagine there is any center right now in D-III who more consistently dominates at both ends of the floor. 

Glad to hear Robertson is not seriously injured, thanks for the update Toad.   Hopefully Mickens and Rooke-Ley can continue to step up if he has to miss the next few games. 

Amh63, I wonder if Amherst's roster, at 19, is TOO large for its own good.  A lot of young players aren't going to see more than a minute or two of consecutive game time, ever, this season.   I mean, the team now has SIX point guards!  Does Amherst have a J.V. team?  Williams does, which helped last year, when the Ephs also had an extremely large roster. 

It is clear that as expected, Midd, Amherst and Williams are the class of NESCAC.  What isn't clear, and won't be until 2011, is how they measure up to one another -- their collective first semester schedules just won't provide many tests.  I still think Bates is a dark horse.  Wesleyan missing two key guys is a huge blow, so they are still a year away it seems. 

[lefrakenstein]

So, I did the PER for the league last year. Here were the top ten players (with over 100 min in league play):

Williams   Whittington   41.06
Williams   Schultz   32.75
Midd   Sharry   30.34
Tufts   Pierce   28.93
Bates   Ellis   28.81
Conn   Bernier   27.84
Amherst   Holmes   26.09
Williams   Wang   26.08
Conn   Porter   25.81
Amherst   Meehan   24.98

Here are the top 10 returning players:

Williams   Whittington   41.06
Midd      Sharry           30.34
Bates   Ellis                   28.81
Amherst   Holmes         26.09
Williams   Wang          26.08
Amherst   Meehan       24.98
Midd    Locke          24.58
Colby   Russell        24.21
Bates   Gallant         23.48
Trinity   Fels             22.48

Whittington is an absolute beast. 10 points above the next best player. That's what happens when you shoot 70% from the field and rack up the rebounds and blocks. Holmes projects to be a top-5 player in the league if, you know, he could get a starters playing time. Sigh.

[lefrakenstein]

And to prove that PER is a pretty good predictor of success, here are the team weighted average PER's, coupled with their record.

Williams   22.23   (9-0)
Midd        18.45   (8-1)
Colby       14.22   (6-3)
Bates       14.67   (5-4)
Bowdoin   13.20   (4-5)
Amherst   15.28   (3-6)
Trinity       13.55   (3-6)
Wesleyan  13.71  (3-6)
Conn         12.92   (2-7)
Tufts          12.19  (2-7)

Records pretty much pan out how PER would predict, except that Bowdoin finished a little higher and Amherst finished a little lower. The one thing PER sucks at is picking up defense, so it makes sense that a poor defensive team like Amherst would finished with a worse record than their PER would suggest and likewise an excellent defensive team like Bowdoin would finish with a better record.

[nescac1]

Nice post, lefrakenstein, plus one.  What is the PER formula again?  I forget how that is calculated.  I'd be curious to see how that plays out for this season's teams / players, as the year progresses.  I imagine Whittington is once again at the top of the league (and maybe at the top, nationally) as his numbers have grown even faster than his playing time, and he is now averaging 17-10-3, plus 3 blocks, and still shooting 70 percent, in only 25 mpg, as opposed to 11-6-1.5, plus 2.5 blocks, in 18 mpg. 

Brian Ellis is also having a huge year so far, as is James Wang, so I imagine both are near the top once again. 

[Colby Hoops]

Love the PER numbers but tend to think that considering Holmes a top 5 or 10 player based on the PER is a bit much.  I agree it means he's been very efficient, but PER tends to favor players who have great field goal percentages but play short minutes.  For example Shaquille O'Neal has the highest PER of any player on the Celtics thus far, but I think we would all agree that he is far from the best player on the team. 

Nescac1, agreed on Wang, he likely could cut down on the turnovers particularly when we are discussing this after a game in which he had 8.  Still, if I were a Williams fan I think that Wang's turnovers would not be of major concern to me.

[sumfun]

When it comes to Amherst roster size....Hixson usually carries a big squad.  When they are winning there seems to be little complaining.  I'm sure it wasn't fun last year managing a squad that big when they weren't playing well.  Everyone wants a chance, and feels like they can make a difference.

[Colby Hoops]

Colby also has a roster of 19 players, so not sure its that big of a deal as long as players understand the minutes situation

[lefrakenstein]

Nice post, lefrakenstein, plus one.  What is the PER formula again?  I forget how that is calculated.  I'd be curious to see how that plays out for this season's teams / players, as the year progresses.  I imagine Whittington is once again at the top of the league (and maybe at the top, nationally) as his numbers have grown even faster than his playing time, and he is now averaging 17-10-3, plus 3 blocks, and still shooting 70 percent, in only 25 mpg, as opposed to 11-6-1.5, plus 2.5 blocks, in 18 mpg.  

Brian Ellis is also having a huge year so far, as is James Wang, so I imagine both are near the top once again.  

The formula is a bit hairy. Basketball reference does a pretty good job of explaining it.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

Colby Hoops, I don't disagree with you about Holmes, but that's lofty company he's in. Surely he deserves to play more than Waller, whose PER was right at 15, or the league average. At some point I think you have to admit that although Waller might be more talented, Holmes has been effective on the court. He deserves to play as much as Waller or Kaasila.

[amh63]

Wow, this board is getting very technical/number crunching.  Hugenerd will be proud.
My thoughts while awaiting the weekend games.
With respect to the large roster item and nescac1's surprising concern over he number of point guards at Amherst-
 Too much talent is not a problem yet.  It is how you use the talent and where the talent lies.  Last year, the large squad had few point guard backups.  When injuries during the season eliminated Meehan and Carcieri, Amherst was left with an inexperienced Noon.  The use of C. Johnson, Barrise and others at point was not sucessful.  When Wheeler went down, there was little experienced backups...to provide outside shooting.
  Not all of the "six" guards are point guards.  Walzy pointed out that Kalmera is a 2 guard and he played that position when Lewis was in with him and played the point.  Toomey and Noon are true point guards.  Meehan and Toomey can play together in the backcourt.  It is always good to have two guards that can pass, drive, rebound and shoot foul shots on the floor at the same time.  Williams had that last year with Wang and Schultz. Toomey, IMO, will have the better outside shooting ability.  With respect to Lewis, he also can shoot from 3-point range.  I believe he will develop more into  a defensive type guard...using his size to slow down the likes of S. Brown and Wang, if other guards cannot.

I guess the size of the roster is only relative.  Williams has a relative small squad this year.  What happen to the JV players?  Recruiting plans?

[Colby Hoops]

Colby Hoops, I don't disagree with you about Holmes, but that's lofty company he's in. Surely he deserves to play more than Waller, whose PER was right at 15, or the league average. At some point I think you have to admit that although Waller might be more talented, Holmes has been effective on the court. He deserves to play as much as Waller or Kaasila.

I suppose that his numbers do warrant an increase in playing time, I just wanted to point out that just based off of PER numbers he wouldn't necessarily be a top-5 player.

I think the issue Hixon has is that it's hard to play Holmes and Kaasila together against a lot of teams given their lack of mobility, and I do believe that Kaasila is better than Holmes, if only slightly because of his tremendous size.  Waller would seem to be a better fit alongside either player both offensively and defensively.