MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

The Amherst game was online and I watched an interesting game.  The game was close in the first "quarter", but it ended as a blow out for Amherst.  Amherst 104, Babson 72.  Both teams shot well from outside, with Babson over 50% from beyond the 3-point line.  However, Amherst shot over 60% from downtown.  Actually Amherst shot nearly 60% for the game; higher from outside and also 60% from the foul line.  Babson's numbers were around 50%.....even from the foul line.  Barrise led the scoring and hit seven 3-point shots.  Waller scored well both outside and inside and had 18 in 20 minutes.  Four starters scored in double figures plus Toomey.  If you combine Kassila and Holme's numbers, you will also have double figure scoring from the center position.
Walzy appeared to have underestimated Amherst's performance.   Actually, if one interexchanged the numbers for the Elm's game with the ones for Babson, Walzy would be dead on for both games.
Just pulling your chain Walzy.    I can not even understand the numbers.....more or less even calculate them.

[walzy31]

The Amherst game was online and I watched an interesting game.  The game was close in the first "quarter", but it ended as a blow out for Amherst.  Amherst 104, Babson 72.  Both teams shot well from outside, with Babson over 50% from beyond the 3-point line.  However, Amherst shot over 60% from downtown.  Actually Amherst shot nearly 60% for the game; higher from outside and also 60% from the foul line.  Babson's numbers were around 50%.....even from the foul line.  Barrise led the scoring and hit seven 3-point shots.  Waller scored well both outside and inside and had 18 in 20 minutes.  Four starters scored in double figures plus Toomey.  If you combine Kassila and Holme's numbers, you will also have double figure scoring from the center position.
Walzy appeared to have underestimated Amherst's performance.   Actually, if one interexchanged the numbers for the Elm's game with the ones for Babson, Walzy would be dead on for both games.
Just pulling your chain Walzy.    I can not even understand the numbers.....more or less even calculate them.

You're absolutely right and I don't buy that you can't understand the lines. So far I have set two very poor sides and totals for the Amherst games. I need to turn my season around and shape up or else the gamblers are going to kill the books come NESCAC regular season time.

[Colby Hoops]

Bates lost last night and still no Ellis.  That could be a problem for them if he misses any more time.

[nescac1]

Bates was also missing their third leading scorer, Brust, last night.  Seems like the semester break couldn't have come at a better time for them; without those two guys, they are an entirely different team. 

Very impressive performance by Amherst last night.  Some of the guys who really struggled from three last year are lighting it up this year.  If that continues, they are going to be very, very tough to beat.  I'd say right now they are underrated in the top 25 rankings.  The Midd-Amherst-Williams games should be epic this winter. 

[amh63]

Thanks nescac 1 for your comments on the Amherst MBB team.   Right now, I prefer that they remain "under the radar" as the coach is still evaluating his players and figuring out the best combinations for games......yes, it appears that there is depth on the team.   Now, if he can get better foul shooting!   Actually, if you throw out the 0-6 from the foul lane from two bench guards coming in late in the game..............Amherst would have shot over 70% from the foul line.

[Colby Hoops]

I'm not sure I'm totally on the Amherst bandwagon yet.  They really fell apart down the stretch last year and a lot of that can be attributed to Meehan's health, but I also think it means that they have a lot to prove.  I believe they have the talent to be as good or even better than Midd or Williams, but I still would put them a notch below those two.

Whittington and Wang are probably the two best players in the NESCAC on the same team, and Midd is so dominant defensively.  Amherst an crush average teams particularly when they shoot well, but I'm not so sure that they're a top 10 or 15 team in the country.

[toad22]

I traveled over the mountain last night and saw Amherst play. Nobody is over hyping the Jeffs. They are a dominant team. All they have to do is spread the floor, drive hard to the hoop and then dish it if they can't get to the rim. All are good penetrators and long range shooters. They will be hard for anybody in the country to beat. They are a lot better than I thought they would be, and I expected them to be very good.

[lordjeff82]

I'm with ColbyHoops in not being ready to jump on the Jeffs bandwagon.  The competition has been very weak (and short) and they've played all but one game at home.  They've been far bigger/stronger and dominated inside which has freed the outside shooters. 

I'll jump on the bandwagon when they play an athletic team with size.   Like ColbyHoops I think they have a lot to prove and their ability to win a close game is very suspect.  Free throw shooting, full court pressure, the ability to handle pressure and a "go to" offensive set determine close contests.  I'm not sure Amherst has more than two of those key factors covered.

The thing they have going for them is a two road game (Conn. College and Wesleyan) schedule until the last two games of the season.  It's tough to win those Saturday afternoon games on the road.  A Saturday loss at Wesleyan, who they play twice in a 10 day period, could sour an untested team.  A win could set the stage for an unblemished NESCAC record going into the final weekend.

I rank the NESCAC as follows.

1)   Williams  (9-0)
2)   Middlebury  (7-2)
3)   Bates  (6-3)
4)   Wesleyan  (6-3)
5)   Amherst  (5-4)
6)   Bowdoin  (4-5)
7)   Colby  (3-6)
8)   Tufts  (2-7)
9)   Trinity  (2-7)
10)   Conn. College  (1-8)

Williams is the class of the league.  Middlebury is suspect but they still get my 2.  Bates and Wesleyan get the next two spots because they have a dominate athlete for crunch time.  Amherst's go to guy isn't a great athlete but does dominated smaller, weaker guards.  The Jeff's unsophisticated offensive sets force him to become a one-on-one player in crunch time which will be a problem against athletic defenders.  The 2nd division is case of disarray at Conn. College, never was for Trinity and a rebuilding effort for Tufts.

[nescac1]

As an Eph fan, I'd love to see the Jeffs go 5-4 this year in the conference, but barring a catastrophic injury, there is simply no way they lose more than 3 in the league, and I'd be pretty stunned if they lost more than 2.  I really don't see Amherst winning less than 20 or missing the NCAA this year, just too much talent, too much size, too much athleticism up front, even if they have (like every team in the league) some flaws. 

Wesleyan is really hurt by not having the top defensive guy and co-captain playing (Greg St. Jean), they are still very young and not very deep.  Bates I think is for real IF their stars return to health, but who knows how long Ellis and Brust will be out, plus Amherst gets them at home. 

I do think you have the bottom of the conference pegged about right.  After the top five, NESCAC is just not terribly deep this season. 

[walzy31]

I'm with ColbyHoops in not being ready to jump on the Jeffs bandwagon.  The competition has been very weak (and short) and they've played all but one game at home.  They've been far bigger/stronger and dominated inside which has freed the outside shooters.  

I'll jump on the bandwagon when they play an athletic team with size.   Like ColbyHoops I think they have a lot to prove and their ability to win a close game is very suspect.  Free throw shooting, full court pressure, the ability to handle pressure and a "go to" offensive set determine close contests.  I'm not sure Amherst has more than two of those key factors covered.

The thing they have going for them is a two road game (Conn. College and Wesleyan) schedule until the last two games of the season.  It's tough to win those Saturday afternoon games on the road.  A Saturday loss at Wesleyan, who they play twice in a 10 day period, could sour an untested team.  A win could set the stage for an unblemished NESCAC record going into the final weekend.

I rank the NESCAC as follows.

1)   Williams  (9-0)
2)   Middlebury  (7-2)
3)   Bates  (6-3)
4)   Wesleyan  (6-3)
5)   Amherst  (5-4)
6)   Bowdoin  (4-5)
7)   Colby  (3-6)
8)   Tufts  (2-7)
9)   Trinity  (2-7)
10)   Conn. College  (1-8)

Williams is the class of the league.  Middlebury is suspect but they still get my 2.  Bates and Wesleyan get the next two spots because they have a dominate athlete for crunch time.  Amherst's go to guy isn't a great athlete but does dominated smaller, weaker guards.  The Jeff's unsophisticated offensive sets force him to become a one-on-one player in crunch time which will be a problem against athletic defenders.  The 2nd division is case of disarray at Conn. College, never was for Trinity and a rebuilding effort for Tufts.

I would bet a lot of money that Wesleyan nor Bates finishes above Amherst this season. Your logic confuses me...it seems you would rather have one dimensional teams with Brian Ellis or Sha Brown over a balanced team with 7 players who can score 20 on any given night. Williams, Middlebury and Amherst are going to be 1-2-3 (maybe in that order but hopefully not) because of exactly the opposite reason you cite: they can beat you lots of different ways.

I would also bet you're not actually Amherst '82, but that's just a hunch so my bet size would be smaller than the aforementioned bet.

[nescac1]

Based on long experience here, I wouldn't bet against Walzy.

On another note, question for the board: is it an advantage for Williams / Midd that they are paired together as travel partners?  Was it an edge (back when Trinity was always a great team) when Amherst and Trinity were paired?  Should that factor in to predictions?  Gotta be hard for anyone to beat Williams and Midd within one 24 hour stretch. 

[walzy31]

Amherst -24.5 @ Anna Maria
O/U: 154.5

[nescac1]

Very impressive win by Williams.  Down one at halftime vs. a solid team, they dominated the entire second half to pull away and win by 23.  Especially impressive because their starters could not buy a three pointer, with both Wang and especially Klemm uncharacteristically off from deep.  A few thoughts on the game ..

-- if there is an all-crazy announcer team, the Springfield guys are contenders.  They managed to mispronounce almost every single Williams name, struggling with Ephs, Rooke-Ley, McLelland, Klemm, and in particular Whittington, who they alternately referred to as "Whitmore" "Whittingmore" and "Whittington" all afternoon.  The guy is only the best center in the country, who touched the ball on nearly every possession, but hey ...

-- speaking of all crazy, Dodson makes his bid for an encore appearance with a 30 foot three pointer, his only make of the night, which he banked in (and it wasn't with the clock running down or anything like that).  I think he shoots better the further away he is.

-- When the Eph shooters were particularly cold in the first half, Whittington kept them in the game with his usual dominating performance.  Another ridiculous performance, 27-10, including 11-11 from the line (as the game went on he was hacked more and more aggressively, but it didn't affect him), and two absolutely massive alley-oop finishes.  He had trouble connecting with the guards on passes, leading to six TO's, but not all of those were his fault.  He has got to be one of the top 2-3 contenders for national player of the year at this point.    

-- Williams shot an incredible 27-28 from the line, including, I believe, nailing their first 24 attempts.  They are now well over 80 percent on the season.  Amazing.  

-- Wang played basically perfect ball in the second half, playing great defense, not forcing the issue on offense, but exploiting any opening that presented itself for driving layups or assists.  A very nice 17-7-6 stat line for him (most of which came in the second half), and crucially, only one TO.  Best I've seen him play in the few games I've watched this year.  That is the kind of play they will need from him (hopefully including his usual three point shooting acumen to boot) if they are truly going to contend.  

-- Big games from Robertson (12 points, 2 blocks, 5 steals, solid ball-handling) and Epley off the bench (8 points, including two threes on a night when Williams was struggling from deep).  Epley played the four at crunch time and is looking more and more comfortable out there.  Robertson looked all the way back from injury, even nailing a three, which is good to see.  Rooke-Ley, Emerson and Epley are growing into a solid bench trio.  Emerson also hit a big three at a key point in the game.  

-- Ephs played very good defense overall.  They just don't give up many easy looks, and today they seemed to create a fair number of TO's, which they don't always manage.

Williams probably won't beat an elite team on a night when Wang, Klemm AND Dodson are all off from deep, but I don't expect that to happen very often.  But nice to see them handily  beat a solid team, on the road, in that situation.  Great end to the semester for the Ephs,  and looking forward to a challenging game vs. North Park in late December.  I think there are going to be some really great battles at the top of NESCAC this year.  

[Old Guy]

(I think there are going to be some really great battles at the top of NESCAC this year - NESCAC1)

Let's hope.

[amh63]

Amherst is playing its last game before exams/break at Anna Maria right now.  It is a just up the road.  I looked up the team and though they are small, they do have two small quick senior guards that lead the team in scoring, etc.  The coach must be giving the team experience defending against talented quick offensive guards.
Anyway, it is half time and the score is Amherst 40, Anna Maria 19.  The team is not shooting well outside and only 50% from the foul line.....4-8.