MBB: NESCAC

[lefrakenstein]

Any chance we'll be seeing Young Guy playing in the NESCAC in a few years? (Lefrakenstein)

Absolutely. If he's lucky enough to go to a NESCAC school he will undoubtedly play hoop. Probably not on the varsity team though. He's my favorite player, a gym rat, loves the game, works hard, earns every minute he gets on the floor in games (not that many). A great teammate. Coaches love him.

Sounds like your son would be a perfect fit for the NESCAC. In general, this whole league is made up of hard working, smart players who love to compete. Other than a few key games every year, I think it's safe to say a lot of these guys played in front of much bigger crowds in high school. Yet they very rarely give anything less than a full effort.

As a big basketball fan, when I first decided to enroll at DIII Amherst over a few DI schools, I was a bit bummed that I wouldn't be seeing any good ball. Three years after graduation, it turns out that DIII is still my favorite level to watch...

[lefrakenstein]

would any of us say that amherst is a better team and williams has a couple of the best players? when i look at the starters for williams, they do not overwhelm except for a couple of them. amherst seems more balanced and thus potentially more dangerous. any thoughts from the nescac community?

I would definitely not say that, and I'm an Amherst fan.

While Amherst might be a little better stocked in terms of experienced talent, Williams has a lot of very talented younger players behind Wang and Whittington.

Klemm is only a sophomore, but he's shown he can be a very effective scorer. Nate Robertson is a very quick guard and can be a handful when he decides to be aggressive. Harlan Dodson is a tall guy that can also step out and shoot the three at a very high percentage. Emerson gets overlooked being in the shadow of Whittington, but he has shown flashes of being a very solid post presence. Rooke-Ley, Epley and Mayer are three freshman that are each contributing and clearly getting better as the year goes on.

The whole team is shooting over 50-40-80, and that's with the starters sitting the last 5-10 minutes of nearly every game!

Don't be fooled, Williams is stacked.

[walzy31]

Friday January 28th Lines:
6pm Tips

Colby @ Amherst
Amherst -22.5
O/U: 150.5

Wesleyan @ Bates
Pick'em
O/U: 140.0

Bowdoin @ Trinity
Bowdoin -7.5
O/U: 142.0

Conn College @ Tufts
Tufts -4.0
O/U: 153.5

[lefrakenstein]

Friday January 28th Lines:
6pm Tips

Colby @ Amherst
Amherst -22.5
O/U: 150.5

Wesleyan @ Bates
Pick'em
O/U: 140.0

Bowdoin @ Trinity
Bowdoin -7.5
O/U: 142.0

Conn College @ Tufts
Tufts -4.0
O/U: 153.5

I'd take Colby, Bates, Trinity and Tufts, but they seem like pretty good lines other than the last one. I'm surprised you don't have Tufts by more at home.

[nescac1]

Highhoops, Amherst is incredibly balanced and has six-seven players who can kill you on any given night, and that is a very difficult team to guard.  But to say that Williams only has a couple of great starters is like saying (at a D-III level) that the Miami Heat only have three good players.  We are talking about arguably the best player in the country in Whittington (and I'm now convinced he is the best NESCAC center I've seen, even over Coffin), and one of the best all-around guards in the country in Wang. 

I also think that you are slighting their supporting cast somewhat.  Robertson would score a lot more on most teams, but he is really a star in his own right, if you value defense, passing, playing smart, and coming up big when it matters -- a very efficient player who can make big plays on offense when he is needed.  Kind of like Tim Edwards for Midd last year, although a better shooter and not quite as good a defender.  I think he is one of the top 5 guards in NESCAC for sure. 

After that top three, they have a lot of solid role players -- Klemm is a great natural scorer who is coming into his own and will only get better.  Rooke-Ley and Epley are two of the top frosh in NESCAC and are both well-rounded players, Emerson would be a decent starting five for most teams, and Dodson and Mickens each have certain skills that are valuable.  Importantly, the four rotation bench players are very good defenders, so even if they aren't scoring, they can help the team.  Rooke-Ley is a great example -- he had a rare brutal shooting night last night, going 0-8 from the field, but contributed 13 boards (!), hit all four of his free throws, and got a few steals off the bench.  Remember, even when Troy was out, Williams still was blowing out most teams, and that wasn't ALL on account of Wang.

Is Amherst stronger 3-6 than Williams?  Yes, which is why the teams are basically even overall.  But Williams is SO good 1-2, and that goes a long way.  Sort of like Guilford the last few years, who had two all-American caliber players and a very good third option, and then a bunch of solid (but not generally game-changing) role players supporting them.  And that was good enough to make two straight final fours ...

[walzy31]

nescac1,

I can't argue any of that. (If I were putting together a superstar Williams team I would still take Coffin over Whittington...actually I would take Subash Bhatt so that we could win more frequently)

I don't bet on my lines, only set them and try to make them as perfect as possible. But if somebody put a gun to my head and said "will a NESCAC team make the final four based on the odds you set?" I would take the Yes side of the bet. The unsettling problem with it all is that I don't know which of the three teams it will be. I think that Midd beats Williams this weekend and that Williams beats Amherst the last weekend of the season. I don't have a read yet on the Midd/Amh game but am leaning towards Amherst.

The NCAA tourney is a whole different ball game and two of those three teams are going to meet in the sweet 16 (and potentially the winner of that game will meet the third team in the elite 8).

Affectionately,
The Prophet

[nescac1]

Highlights from last night's game:

http://www.cbs6albany.com/video/?videoId=761455241001&lineupId=1143371794&play=now

Sumant Bhatt was one of the more entertaining Eph players ever, I'll give you that -- always a crowd favorite.  And by his senior year he actually could play / was an asset on the court.   The one time I played with him (a few years after he graduated, along with a few class of 04 guys, I am way, way, way below that level alas) I was impressed with his game, kind of a late bloomer.  Whittington vs. Coffin is a very close call, both could absolutely dominate opponents at times, and Coffin was better earlier in his career.  But for one game, given how each played as a senior, I'd take Troy.  

What makes me lean towards Troy are a few things: (1) while both played good one-on-one defense, Troy is more of an intimidator on the defensive end and alters so many shots, and (2) his incredible play in the last three games of last year's tourney, where he held his own against Tyler Sanborn (an absolute monster in person) and was dominant / carried the Ephs at times against a good Brandeis front-line and vs. a really stellar Stevens Point team.  And he's improved quite a bit since that time ... I mean, the guy is shooting 73 percent right now, despite wearing a bulky knee brace and despite constant double and triple teams -- incredible.  

[Colby Hoops]

I'd still almost definitely pick Amherst to finish third out of the Williams-Midd-Amherst trio.  Amherst is no doubt deep and extremely talented almost right through the end of their bench. But they don't have quite the gamechangers that Williams and Midd do.  Whittington and Wang might be two of the top 5-10 players in the country, with Whittington possibly number one.  Physically, he is just on another level from everybody else in Division 3.

Having played Midd, it feels like you can't get layups against them.  With Locke and Sharry in the middle, it really felt like there was no way to score within 5 feet of the basket.  I think they can be beat because they don't have any truly dynamic offensive players.  A lot of very solid and good offensive players, but nobody who truly scares you offensively.  Still, I'm not sure there are many better defensive teams in the country, even without Edwards this year.

I think Amherst beating Williams without Whittington is like beating the Mavericks without Dirk.  And to compare missing Waller with missing Whittington is ridiculous.  Yes, Amherst has so many different players who can beat you, but I'm not entirely sold on them defensively despite all of the "hustiling" that amh63 saw them doing.  As my high school coach used to say "effort without execution gets you sweaty."  I'm not sure Amherst executes defensively on the same level as Midd, and they don't have a shot eraser in the back like Williams or Midd.

I'll be at the game to see Colby vs Amherst this weekend, and might have a different opinion seeing the team in person this season (especially to see how good Toomey is), but as of now I'm betting Amherst is just not quite up to par with Midd and Williams.

[amh63]

Ahh...the wonders of technology.  I finally figured out how to correct mistakes on my posts!  It shows that you can teach an old dog new tricks.
I like your numbers Walzy.....given the fact that Curry did beat Colby in Nov. and assuming Colby has improved since.
I must go back to the '04 NCAA to see how two NESCAC teams....Amherst and Williams ...made it to the Final 4.  Maybe someone else can also check.  I guess it will have to be determined by the NCAA "gods" as to where the "Top 3" are put in the brackets.  I know it is still early, and there are always bumps along the way......I still feel that the team who host the conference tournament has the best chance to win the conference title and therefore get the top seed in the NCAA.  If your thoughts/projections play out....Midd. beats Williams,,,,,Williams beats Amherst......Amherst beats Midd.  then there will be a tie for the title (assuming there are no further conference losses along the way and among the three).  How will the conference determine who host the tournament?
I am aware that the recent posts may be annoying to other conference team posters.

[eph partisan]

amh63, the answer is random chance.

Here are the NESCAC tie-breakers:

If teams tied during the regular season, or there is a 3-way or more tie, the following tie breaking procedure will be used:

    Best record among tying teams, against one another (head-to-head).
    Most conference wins (in games that are part of the conference schedule and count toward league standings).
    Comparison of results of conference games played against top 4 teams (including all teams at the 4th spot).
    Comparison of results of conference games played against top 8 teams (including all teams at the 8th spot).
    Comparison of results of conference games played against conference teams in rank order.
    Comparisons shall be made one team at a time starting with the highest ranked team.
    If the tie remains after comparing results against the highest ranked team, the results against the next team in rank order shall be used. This process is continued until a winner is determined.
    Coin flip (or similar random action involving all tied teams).

I don't really like it, but I am not sure how else they would do it; point differential is too random in basketball, and overall win percentage is not necessarily a fair representation of how teams have performed.

[nescac1]

Eph partisan, thanks, interesting.  So as I read that, if W / A / M all go 7-1 in the conference (with the only losses being to one another), it will come down to the coin flip.  That would be a heck of an important coin flip, because not only does the top team get home-court advantage, it would get a (presumably) much easier semifinal match-up, in a year where teams 4-10 in NESCAC are hard to really distinguish from one another.  Of course, W / M still have the tough Bowdoin / Colby road weekend ahead, so there are no guarantees, even if those three manage to split vs. one another. 

[amh63]

eph partisan....thanks.  Indeed it looks like a criteria written by a committee.  I think it needs to be updated....simplified.....just go to the "Coin Flip" in case of a tie.
I hate it when one has such criteria as "point differential".  I can't imagine a coach keeping his starters in a game that is a blowout in order to have a higher point differential...so as to improve his title chances in a tie situation.   Not in the NESCAC!

[lefrakenstein]

Any idea why Augustana leap-frogged Middlebury and Williams in the last poll? Apparently beating 9-9 North Central and 1-16 Millikan by all of 14 points convinced the venerable voters of this site that the Augies were better than the Ephs and Panthers, who have been destroying everyone in their path.

In fact, if anything, the CCIW seems like it's a one-team league this year. IW is still ranked, but they just took their fifth loss, so that shouldn't last too much longer I wouldn't think. Massey rates the CCIW as the fifth-toughest conference and the NESCAC as the third toughest.

If Midd beats Williams on the road this weekend and still doesn't start getting some first place votes, that would be a travesty.

[lefrakenstein]

Maybe this is something that everybody else already knew about, but I just discovered the Massey predictions.

http://www.masseyratings.com/pred.php?dt=20110129&days=1&s=101140&sub=11620

They've got projected scores for every game that I assume are based off of some statistical formula. Maybe HugeNerd can drop in and give some details.

For what it's worth, they project the score of this weekend's big show down to be Middlebury 66, Williams 72. They say the Ephs have a 75% chance of winning.

Looking further ahead, they predict that Amherst will beat Midd 75-73 and give the Jeffs a 55% chance of winning.

The predict Williams will beat Amherst 80-76 and give the Ephs a 64% chance of winning.

Those predictions seem pretty sound for something based off of an algorithm.

[amh63]

Lefrakenstein.....Thanks for the info on the Massey data......most interesting.....gets me wondering about how many little people in cubicles grinding away at numbers/data.
I could put my two-bits in wrt to the number 3 team....but it will get me more negative karma points from the "readers".  Best bet would to ask one of the voters who broadcast on Hoopsville  tonight.  I believe he is one of the 25 voters and he does sometimes relates how/why he votes the way he votes.  I believe you can even twitter him on the topic.