MBB: NESCAC

[remsleep]

Walzy: Philosophical issue: what is a "remote location"? It can't be where one is, physically. I have a son living in Los Angeles - now there's a remote location. Middlebury is where my feet are planted; therefore, it is the hub of the universe, God's country. Two kinds of people - those who live in Vermont, and those who wish they did.

Actually, I'd rather live in Compton than in Vermont

[nescac1]

So basically, the Skidmore strategy is, "sweep the leg!" .... Interesting.  Considering that most of Amherst's key players shoot well over 80 percent from the line, I don't see that being effective. Although I guess it could help out WPI the following day, if they manage to take out a Lord Jeff.   

[amh63]

Thanks Frank U.    My mind got cluttered again!
Thanks Old Guy.  I did recall that Midd. players got "mugged" but could not remember the postings.  Confused it with Sharry's injury.
I do hope that the Skidmore players will refrain from such tactics....even if the coach suggest it.  Putting it in the hands of the men/women in stripes is never satisfying.
Jumping ahead to the sectionals, maybe it is fruitful to ask the HOOPSVILLE guys tonight about their take of how hosting will probably go if both the ODAC and NESCAC teams survive the 2nd rounds.  Probably raise the tension level on this board.
It was interesting to recall a remark made by Pat C. in the Monday broadcast.  It was a passing type remark.  To paraphrase the remark,...Amherst may have hosted (early rounds) if not for the Amherst women's team.
This makes me wonder how high the conference teams were seeded by the NCAA....selection committee.

[Pat Coleman]

Indeed, it was speculation. The final regional rankings didn't come out until after that show, if I recall. Becker's gym is too small to host so they are out but WPI remained ahead.

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/03/01/ncaas-final-regional-ranking/

[toad22]

Williams played Skidmore after Middlebury did. The game was not particularly rough. Whittington completely dominated the game at both ends. I think he scored over 30, and stopped all inside play by Skids. I wasn't very impressed with them -- though I would never write that if Williams were playing them. I doubt that Amherst will have too much trouble with them, though as my old HS coach used to say "you win it on the floor, not on the press clippings".

I am somewhat concerned about Williams playing without Nate Robertson. Nate is our best on ball defender, our best passer, our best floor general, and our headiest player. He generally gives the team exactly what it needs -- assists, defense, points, or rebounds. The Ephs just arn't as good when he is unavailable. I hope he can play this weekend, but I doubt it will happen.

[7express]

It certainly sounds like an intriguing match-up, and I have the utmost confidence that Coach Brown and his staff will have Midd prepared for whatever the opponent (Western Conn or Salve) brings on Saturday. As painful as those past tourney losses have been, I do think they can benefit this year's team in making them comfortable with different styles of play come tourney time. Those are my thoughts, anyway. Someone has to balance out Old Guy's worrying here! 
-----------------------------------

This West Conn team has no size at all, and when I mean no size, really none.   I'll have to look, but I think the tallest player on our team is 6"7 and he floats around the perimeter.  Will Jarrett (6"6 I believe) is the only big body we have, but Locke and Sharry should have good games.  We've gotten beat around a lot when we've had to play against decent bigs, Akinrolla for RIC had 2 good games when they played us.

The thing that will do Middlebury in is transition defense.  To counteract the no size, 4 guard offense, were quick as a whistle and any bad shot Mid takes will be a layup opporunity down at the other end of the court because we can get down there that fast.  As long as Middlebury can make good shots and stopping the ball is the most important I can't see any way that they can lose because Locke/Sharry/Davis are huge matchup problems.

However, we haven't been playing well, so if it turns out Salve wins, I'll let you know about them after I return from the game.  Would love to see Mid West Conn though (mainly because I'm a West Conn student) to see how the Mid size vs. Western quickness would pan out, but we gotta beat Salve first.

[eph partisan]

Looking for a neutral person's opinion on which NESCAC team will go farthest - or if a supporter of a team thinks it will be one of the other two. Anyone have any thoughts?

Walzy, are you going to have title, final four, etc odds in addition to game lines?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Looking for a neutral person's opinion on which NESCAC team will go farthest - or if a supporter of a team thinks it will be one of the other two. Anyone have any thoughts?

Walzy, are you going to have title, final four, etc odds in addition to game lines?

FWIW, I have Williams over Amherst in the Elite 8; Randy Mac over Midd also in the E8.  Then Williams making the title game, but losing to UWSP.  And I'm about as neutral as you'll find!

Competent may be a different issue.

[ephoops]

So basically, the Skidmore strategy is, "sweep the leg!" ....    

I believe this is the first "Karate Kid" reference in the history of the NESCAC board!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWbFWHrJ0CU (see 5: 25 in the video)

[The Voice]

The next post in this thread will be #10,000. 10,000 thoughts on our little conference. Nice!

[Pat Coleman]

Technically, yours was 10,000. Mine is reply 10,000 but there was an initial post as well.

[7express]

Looking for a neutral person's opinion on which NESCAC team will go farthest - or if a supporter of a team thinks it will be one of the other two. Anyone have any thoughts?

I have Williams in the title game losing to Stevens Point (beating Amherst in the elite 8) along with Mid losing to Randolph-Macon in the elite 8.

[walzy31]

Walzy, are you going to have title, final four, etc odds in addition to game lines?

Of course!

Friday March 4, 2011 NCAA Lines

Amherst Vs. Skidmore (@ WPI)
Amherst -12.0
O/U: 152.0

Husson @ Williams
Williams -26.0
O/U: 146.0

2011 NCAA D3 Basketball Prop Bets

How Many NESCAC Teams Make it to Salem?
0 +130
1 -125
2 +250
3 +100000

Will Middlebury Reach the Final Four?
Yes +180
No -300

Will Williams Reach the Final Four?
Yes +240
No -500

Will Amherst Reach the Final Four?
Yes +240
No -600

Will a NESCAC Team win the National Championship?
Yes +900
No -1400

Husson @ Williams MoneyLine Spread (By Request)
Williams -10000
Husson +8000
(For the MLB fans, the Husson line is a carbon copy of the current odds offered for the Washington Nationals to win the 2011 World Series.)

Looking for a neutral person's opinion on which NESCAC team will go farthest - or if a supporter of a team thinks it will be one of the other two. Anyone have any thoughts?

Nonobjective observer:
I have 3 NESCAC teams in the Elite 8 (although I'm worried about Western Connecticut), 1 in the Final Four which is Amherst over Williams in the 2003 Elite 8 rematch in Williamstown. I also have Pat Coleman's Whitworth Final Four Pick losing in the Sweet 16 and Wooster coming out of that bracket.

Pulling my spreads from January 25th to comapre:

Futures Lines:
All four institutions that will eventually participate in the 2011 Men's Basketball Division III Final Four are ranked in the Top 12 of this week's D3Hoops.com Top 25 Poll (Week 8):

Yes -900 (Wooster, Whitworth, Augustana, Middlebury, Williams, Amherst, Virginia Wesleyan, St. Thomas, Randolph-Macon, UW-River Falls, Wabash, UW-Stevens Point)
No +680 (The Field)

At least one of the following three NESCAC schools will reach the 2011 Men's Basketball Division III Final Four (Middlebury, Williams, Amherst):

Yes -1500
No +1000

I love the Week 7 bet. All 4 of my Final Four teams are in that group of 12 as are 7 or my Elite Eight.

[walzy31]

I'm with ColbyHoops in not being ready to jump on the Jeffs bandwagon.  The competition has been very weak (and short) and they've played all but one game at home.  They've been far bigger/stronger and dominated inside which has freed the outside shooters.  

I'll jump on the bandwagon when they play an athletic team with size.   Like ColbyHoops I think they have a lot to prove and their ability to win a close game is very suspect.  Free throw shooting, full court pressure, the ability to handle pressure and a "go to" offensive set determine close contests.  I'm not sure Amherst has more than two of those key factors covered.

I rank the NESCAC as follows.

1)   Williams  (9-0)
2)   Middlebury  (7-2)
3)   Bates  (6-3)
4)   Wesleyan  (6-3)
5)   Amherst  (5-4)
6)   Bowdoin  (4-5)
7)   Colby  (3-6)
8)   Tufts  (2-7)
9)   Trinity  (2-7)
10)   Conn. College  (1-8)

Williams is the class of the league.  Middlebury is suspect but they still get my 2.  Bates and Wesleyan get the next two spots because they have a dominate athlete for crunch time.  Amherst's go to guy isn't a great athlete but does dominated smaller, weaker guards.  The Jeff's unsophisticated offensive sets force him to become a one-on-one player in crunch time which will be a problem against athletic defenders.  The 2nd division is case of disarray at Conn. College, never was for Trinity and a rebuilding effort for Tufts.

I would bet a lot of money that Wesleyan nor Bates finishes above Amherst this season. Your logic confuses me...it seems you would rather have one dimensional teams with Brian Ellis or Sha Brown over a balanced team with 7 players who can score 20 on any given night. Williams, Middlebury and Amherst are going to be 1-2-3 (maybe in that order but hopefully not) because of exactly the opposite reason you cite: they can beat you lots of different ways.

I would also bet you're not actually Amherst '82, but that's just a hunch so my bet size would be smaller than the aforementioned bet.

When searching for my January 25th lines I stumbled upon this. Just cashed that ticket on Bates and Wesleyan (hah) not finishing above Amherst this year. It will be paying for my next flight to Vegas.


I'm hating on the NWC these days and can't wait for Whitworth to bite it. They won every game by seemingly 30 points except a loss to the 19-8 Whitman Missionaries (is that a for real mascot?). This is a team that last year won every game by seemingly 30 points and then had a bye and lost in the Sweet 16 to Eastern Mennonite.

[Colby Hoops]

Having very little knowledge of teams outside of the Northeast, its hard for me to handicap the chances of the Nescac squads.  I think Williams is still the best team out of the three Nescacs as they have two All-American players and have several guys with significant tournament experience from last year. I still think this team is worse than last year's Williams team so I'd say a Final 4 run for them, but I'd be surprised if they won it all, and I probably wouldn't pick them to make the title game.

Middlebury is an interesting team because they're size makes it very difficult to beat them, but there are concerns about playing quicker smaller teams and the past two years the team has struggled in the tourney.  I've heard everyone say that they have the toughest bracket, so I'd be surprised if they made it to the final four, although I'm rooting for them.  It's just crazy to think about where this team was about 6 years ago to where they are now. 

Amherst clearly has the talent level to make a deep run, but other than their first Williams win in the game without Whittington, they haven't proven they can beat the very best.  I don't see them beating Williams in the Elite 8 if they make it there.  Although I'm probably not the most neutral Amherst observer considering my Dad went to Williams and it feels like I lost to Amherst about 75 times in my first two years at Colby, although it was actually only 4. 

Walzy,  I'll take Husson and the 26 points in that game.  I'd say Williams wins pretty handily but 26 seems like a lot.