MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Given how easy a time Williams had with Skidmore at Skidmore, I am surprised by how low Walzy's Amherst line is. 

According to the North Adams Transcript today (as well as Toad's comment below), it sounds like it would be a surprise if Robertson played this weekend ... definitely worrisome.  They SHOULD still handle Husson easily, although 26 seems a bit high, but second round could be tricky without Nate ... Scranton has an all-American caliber two guard fromt the sound of it, so the Ephs guards other than Wang will really have to step it up if that ends up being the match-up.  Hopefully if the Ephs can survive he can get back to 100 percent with another week of rest. 

One theory on Midd's tourney struggles, besides just some bad luck with match-ups ... so much of Midd's success over recent years relates to their incredibly consistent defensive effort / intensity ... could it be that, in the tourney, when everyone's effort / intensity on the defensive end is peaking, Midd's relative excellence there (and much of it is just talent, of course -- you can't replicate the play of a Locke, Edwards, or Thompson no matter how hard you work) isn't quite as pronounced?  Just a thought.

I also feel in past years Midd was hurt by perimeter players who had trouble consistently hitting threes and foul shots.  This year, their guards seem to be able to score more consistently from the outside and from the line in big spots (they were money from the line down the stretch vs. Williams last week), which should really help them in any close tourney games.  Against RIC last year they couldn't put the ball in the ocean if I recall.   

[Colby Hoops]

One theory on Midd's tourney struggles, besides just some bad luck with match-ups ... so much of Midd's success over recent years relates to their incredibly consistent defensive effort / intensity ... could it be that, in the tourney, when everyone's effort / intensity on the defensive end is peaking, Midd's relative excellence there (and much of it is just talent, of course -- you can't replicate the play of a Locke, Edwards, or Thompson no matter how hard you work) isn't quite as pronounced?  Just a thought.
 

That idea may seem more likely in an NBA season where teams tend to coast in the regular season.  Division 3 teams tend to play as hard as possible in every single game, there's very little attempt to conserve energy, which is really what makes it so great.  I doubt there's a level of intensity for any team above what they've shown thus far.

[amh63]

Though I would rather wait until after the second round of games to project.....I can be a wuzzi (to use a Old Guy expression) at times....I must assert myself after hearing all the doubts about Amherst by the D3 analysts recently.  Of course, I am backed by Walzy's "numbers" to a degree.
Dave M. of Hoopsville last night picked his surprise team as WPI.  I got into a little negative-type posting with Hugenerd on another board who also gave WPI high praise.  One must realize that MIT recently beat WPI for their conference title and Hugenerd is a supporter of MIT.  Anyway, I digress.
Amherst's win over Williams at home was "discounted " by many for the non participation of Williams' star center.  One forgets the fact that Amherst was missing Waller and Meehan for half the game.  In the close lost to Williams away, both Meehan and Toomey were not up to par (partly due to tough Williams defense) & Wang was great.  In the close lost to Midd. away, again Meehan and Toomey played poorly.....again it was the opponent's defense.   With more preparation, Amherst played Midd. better in the second game and Meehan was himself .  Toomey still struggled and so did Workman and Waller was subpar.  I really believe that in a rematch with Williams at Williams, Workman will shine and both Amherst point guards will have good games.  I am assuming here that all other Amherst players will contribute like they did before.  With Toomey and Meehan playing well for a full game, a win is highly likely even with a strong Wang/Whittington display.
In short.....If Williams and Amherst reach the elite 8 at Williams, I predict an Amherst march into the Final 4.  There, I feel Amherst will reach the finals.  Must wait for the matchups after that.

[booyakasha]

amh63

The games in which Meehan and Toomey have sub-par performances are more likely a function of their opponent (namely, Williams and Midd), than statistical noise. Of course they will play better against the dregs of d3 that they have played against all year (or a Whittington-less Williams for that matter).

That reminds me, has Wang played all games this year? I've been giddy with excitement over the prospect of him missing a game and people referring to Williams as Wang-less.

[The Voice]

Midd held their three NESCAC tourney opponents to 30.5% shooting. I don't think Western Conn is going to be dropping 89 on us like they did on Salve Regina.

Another fun Panther fact as I browse season stats... Middlebury averaged 967 fans in our five regular season home NESCAC games this year, leading the conference. An astonishing number for A) a 1200-seat gym and B) a town where hockey was KING as recently as three years ago.

[walzy31]

That reminds me, has Wang played all games this year? I've been giddy with excitement over the prospect of him missing a game and people referring to Williams as Wang-less.

Well played. +1

[frank uible]

If Williams can't advance this week without Robertson, then they probably would not be good enough to advance the next week with him.

[frank uible]

Or alternatively Williams would be playing with Wang out.

[Bucket]

Midd held their three NESCAC tourney opponents to 30.5% shooting. I don't think Western Conn is going to be dropping 89 on us like they did on Salve Regina.

A word of caution, though—Western Conn presents a very different style of play than Conn, Williams, or Amherst. They get a lot of their points in transition, off of steals, off of long rebounds. Our coaching staff knows this and is obviously game-planning for this style of play, but to say that we held our past three opponents to 30 percent from the floor, ergo Western Conn won't be pushing 90 is a bit of apples to oranges comparison.

What I expect to happen is that we will attempt to control the tempo, we will try and force Western Conn into very difficult shots when they are in their half court offense, and, most importantly, we will need to be diligent about our own shot selection, maximizing second-chance points with higher percentage shots that tend to come off the rim softer and more predictably. If we can do these things, then yes, we should be able to keep the score in the 60s, which we prefer, as opposed to the 80s. And if we are successful early, we may force Western Conn into taking lower percentage shots--but it's not quite as easy or as simple as you make it sound!

[7express]

We (Western Conn) will get dominated in the paint, on second chance points and on offensive rebounds, thats a given given our size.

Our key is to get out in transistion, get steals, and force Middlebury into bad shots to create our transistion offense.  If we force Mid into a running game I like our chances even though we can be too fast for our own good sometime.  if Mid slows the pace down and plays a half court style of play we could be in for a long night.  Will be interesting to say which style happens.

[amh63]

Wow! Frank U. really has a sense of humor.  Like it!
I am aware that where Midd. is located that in the Winter, Midd. can be "pretty as a picture card".  However, I do believe "The Voice" that the high attendance to "indoor sports" is aided by the weather to a degree..

[frank uible]

We aim to please.

[TheHerst2and4]

I know this is absolutely off topic- especially with tip off hours away-but I came across this and thought (if it hasn't already) would be worth the share, 5'11 guard from Illinois College has some serious hops
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/04/jacob-tucker-dunk-video_n_831551.html
Maybe Pat can give it a plug- it would be pretty amazing if this kid could get into the NCAA dunk contest

[lefrakenstein]

Meehan and Toomey lead Skidmore 23-20 at the half. Amherst leads 38-20.

[lefrakenstein]

I'm hating on the NWC these days and can't wait for Whitworth to bite it. They won every game by seemingly 30 points except a loss to the 19-8 Whitman Missionaries (is that a for real mascot?).

Oh man.... people in glass houses...