MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Seems like NESCAC as a whole had a post-Thanksgiving hangover yesterday, with lots of losses, and Midd and Williams both struggling in the first half before finding their groove.  I did not see the game, but based on the second half box score, Toad and Madzillag's depictions sound dead on: hard to play much more efficiently on offense than 64 points on 19-26 from the field, 5-6 from 3, and 22-27 from the line, with 11 assists against only 4 turnovers.  Hopefully they will continue to play at a high level as the competition improves. 

A few other early-season thoughts about NESCAC and New England:

-- I though Wesleyan and Tufts would make it a five-team race this year, and while both have talent, both clearly have some flaws as evidenced by two early-season losses apiece.  Wesleyan has three stars but very little depth ... the last three recruiting classes just haven't brought enough star power in to support the seniors, it seems, as the Cards desperately need at least one more consistent option to emerge (what Mendell gave them last year).  After this year, the prognosis for Wesleyan is not terribly bright, so they will really need to turn it around in a hurry.  Tufts seems to have the opposite problem, with lots of depth and around 10 quality guys, but no single star / go-to player emerging.  So once again, Midd, Amherst and Williams occupy their typical places as the teams to beat.  I expect Williams to be a top 20 team in the next poll, and Midd and Amherst to remain in the top five, although I don't think much separates the three at this point, as the Ephs may be just a bit underrated, and Amherst/Midd just a bit overrated. 

-- The bottom half of NESCAC does seem weaker than it's been in past years, primarily due to youth / rebuilding.  Trinity, Colby and Conn College are all loaded with frosh receiving major minutes, which is usually not a recipe for success, especially early in the year.  The future is brighter than the present for all thre.  Bowdoin, Hamilton and Bates are also rebuilding a bit after losing all-NESCAC performers.  I don't expect those six schools to earn many collective victories vs. the top five. 

-- Curry, who Amherst absolutely annihilated, gave MIT a pretty tough test the other day.  Since two of MIT's four star players are out indefinitely, likely for the entire season, MIT's ranking may be a bit inflated, and it seems that they are, at best, in the same class as the big three from NESCAC.  MIT is getting a disproportionate amount of production from two guys, albeit two guys who will almost certainly make some all-American teams, and whether they have the depth to compete with other elite teams remains to be seen. 

-- For Williams, depth is also a concern.  Only Weinheimer (who is developing into an excellent and very versatile sixth man, an excellent creator for his size) and Hoffmann (a solid back-up center and energy guy) have proven to be reliable bench contributors so far.  Kilcullen has had some moments and I hope as he acclimates to the system he starts to see more time.  It seems like Weinheimer and Klemm are roughly splitting time in big moments.  They bring very different skills to the table, with Klemm as a much better shooter and someone who creates space for teammates since he always has to be accounted for, and Weinheimer as a bigger, more disruptive defender and a guy who can create off the bounce for other players. 

-- Through four games, Michael Mayer leads the NESCAC in both scoring and rebounding, while also passing well (1.5 assists per game) and playing solid defense inside (one block per game).  He could improve his foul shooting a bit, and still needs to watch foul trouble on the other end, but I'm happy to see him so far living up to the substantial hype I and other Eph posters have been spreading.  Of course, he has yet to face up against another very talented center, but frankly, I'm not sure how many of those are out there in New England right now.  Bowdoin can throw the 7'0 behemoth Swords at him, Amherst has Kaasila, and Midd has several big guys especially Roberts who is a big, strong defender, so those will be the three biggest tests of how much his game has evolved. 

-- Albertus Magnus, after beating Wesleyan, faces almost no one in its class during the remainder of its schedule.  Look for them to go undefeated or very close to undefeated once again, and likely earn a high tourney seed.  Surprised they don't schedule more tough opponents to get battle-tested heading into the post-season. 

-- RIC looks to be the class of the LEC once again, thanks to as usual a high-profile impact transfer.  WPI, led by future (if not this year) all-American Marco Coppola, will post its typical 20-win season.  Springfield could be a dark horse in NEWMAC: it will be fun to see Alex Berthiaume match up against Toomey and Robertson in coming weeks, he is certainly in their class as a player, doesn't get a lot of hype but deserves to.  Very, very quick and very crafty, a natural scorer who is a really tough cover.  Don't think any other New England teams are worth focusing on at the moment. 

[WPI89]

Well done NE synopsis Nesc1 - thanks.

[amh63]

nescac1........informative summary write-up.  Surprised that you missed the Williams vs. MCLA game......even I took in the first half.
Nice announcers but the quality of the feed could be improved.....though I seem to think many of the video casts are getting better hardware.   
Several things to add from my perspective.  Went over Bowdoin's games......seems the 7' Swords is still not a starter and has his good days and then becomes invisible in his contributions.  The Polar Bears also has a 6'10" player.  To date, neither of the potential centers are contributing much to the games to date....a time to work with their team.
Lumbercat....I think that Bates has a good chance to rise to the upper tier.  RIC is and will be a very good team by the end of the season.

[JustAFan]

Amh63 I agree with your observation about Bates being on the rise, although I'd put them in the middle tier with Wesleyan and Tufts. Tufts will be a tough out come the end of the season if they can successfully assimilate all of their talented frosh and sophs and figure out roles and rotations.

Nescac1, my New England sleeper is Clark U. in the NEWMAC, with 3 seniors and 4 grad students (all of whom missed a year of play due to injuries). We should have a better feel for whether or not they're real after tomorrow night's game at Brandeis.

I caught the second half of the Williams game vs. MCLA and was surprised at how easily the MCLA guards got into the paint. Williams really needs to tighten this up should it make the NCAA tournament, where it often runs into some out of conference teams with quick guards. Re: Kilcullen I think Maker needs to take some risks with him (something he's reluctant to do with new players-see Wohl last year, largely buried once league play began) and find him more minutes since I think his development will be critical to the team later in the season but that may require coach to accept more mistakes than he can tolerate. I thought Matt McCreary brought some good energy and play off the bench for Williams last night as well.

[7express]

Regarding Clark, as long as Brian Vayda can healthy for the entire season, I'd nominate them as my sleeper pick in New England as well.  Them or Springfield, both have tough games this week (Clark @ Brandeis, Springfield @ Keene State) to show whether their for real or not.

[magicman]

New D3hoops Top 25 poll is out. Middlebury still at #4, Amherst drops a spot to #6, and Williams makes an appearance at #24. Wesleyan drops out completely.  Here's the link:   

http://d3hoops.com/top25/men/2012-13/week1

[walzy31]

Tuesday 11/27/12 Lines

Amherst Vs. Lasell
Amherst -27.5
O/U: 168.5

[WPI89]

Tuesday 11/27/12 Lines

Amherst Vs. Lasell
Amherst -27.5
O/U: 168.5

Amherst and the under

[7express]

Tuesday 11/27/12 Lines

Amherst Vs. Lasell
Amherst -27.5
O/U: 168.5

I love these, even though I'm terrible
Lasell and over.  They don't play much defense and they can score (regarding Lasell).

[madzillagd]

What's the O/U on how many points Amherst has to score to go undefeated this week and not drop anymore spots in the polls?  I thought Middlebury might drop a couple spots after struggling a bit more than expected in their first 4 games but I'm assuming voters liked the level of competition a bit better.  Midd's opponents are 7-7 versus Amherst's 2-8.  Midd won by 5, 9, 36, & 7 whereas Amherst cruised at 15, 21, 43.  Haven't been able to catch a Midd game yet but nice work by the Midd blog guys for updating on the games etc. 

[madzillagd]

http://www.rpiathletics.com/news/2012/11/26/MBB_1126125706.aspx?path=mbball

Nice preview on the RPI site for the Williams game tonight.  Looks like Live Stats should be available. 

[amh63]

JustAFan.....like your thinking too!  Even though I have not seen Bates and Tufts to date, and the season is "young", I have a feeling about your "middle" group of Wes., Bates and Tufts.  At present, I consider all three as "dangerous" teams.....teams with talent.  Wes. has experience and the others have young talent that could develop quickly.  All could surprise down the line given the situation such as a home game.  Thinking about it a little more....I would put them as strong candidates to make the conference tournament and will view their games as such.  I recall that in the Amherst's Final Four years...about 6 years ago, watching Bates and Tufts playing well in the "CAC" tournament at Amherst.  One of those games included A. Olsen making "the SHOT" to beat Tufts.  Walzy....help me on this....was the shot to tie Tufts and allow the game to go into OT or was it the shot to win the game?  Anyway, both Bates and Tufts had players in those years that gave Amherst more trouble in the tournament than in the regular season games.
Walzy....sorry that we could not chat more during Homecoming.  Hope things are going your way.

[walzy31]

What's the O/U on how many points Amherst has to score to go undefeated this week and not drop anymore spots in the polls?  I thought Middlebury might drop a couple spots after struggling a bit more than expected in their first 4 games but I'm assuming voters liked the level of competition a bit better.  Midd's opponents are 7-7 versus Amherst's 2-8.  Midd won by 5, 9, 36, & 7 whereas Amherst cruised at 15, 21, 43.  Haven't been able to catch a Midd game yet but nice work by the Midd blog guys for updating on the games etc.

Yeah, I had no issue seeing Amherst drop a spot in the poll. While Amherst has never lost a Ken Wright Invitational game, it looked like we came out a little sloppier on defense than previous years. If North Central appeared sharper, why not leap frog them one spot?

We'll see how the polls shake out throughout the season. Not many teams have really played anyone yet.

[walzy31]

Walzy....help me on this....was the shot to tie Tufts and allow the game to go into OT or was it the shot to win the game?

Walzy....sorry that we could not chat more during Homecoming.  Hope things are going your way.

Olson's shot put it into OT in the Sweet 16 of 2006.

Life is good Amh63...life is good.

[amh63]

Thanks Walzy.   I just went back to look up the info.  My memories are just getting muddle these days.  I just remember that I couldn't watch, but my traveling partner had faith that Amherst would win.  It was the following two years that Amherst made it to the finals of the NCAA tournament.   It was the days when Amherst and Tufts went to THREE straight OT games.
I will only get into trouble if I state my opinions about early season polls.  One has only to look at the polls for the Div.1 teams and then see how the ranked teams play in the early season tournaments.  Actually, I am getting to like the way the WSJ make predictions of sporting evens....in terms of probabilities vice spreads.