MBB: NESCAC

[Pat Coleman]

Maineman.....thanks for the correction.  Whatever....it was the D3hoops schedule section spot...just before the W & L game.  First time, I thought I hit the wrong line....the second time, I carefully hit the proper line and still got the broadcast company video site and looked for the proper broadcast line.....and still could not find the button to hit.   Did see that the broadcast vender is used by the Colby program.

amh63,
It wasn't you hitting the wrong line. A number of times in the past week or so I've hit the video or live stat links on the D3hoops scoreboard and completely different schools have popped up. I don't think it's a D3hoops problem as I've gotten the same thing when I went to a school's website and used the video or live stat link there. Does make one wonder if they're having a "senior moment" though.

If you see that on a school website, can you let me know? We have had PrestoSports working on this bug for a couple of weeks now and that would be a key piece of info if we can replicate it.

So far we have only seen this in men's basketball, not women's, but do please let me know if you see more of it.

[magicman]

Maineman.....thanks for the correction.  Whatever....it was the D3hoops schedule section spot...just before the W & L game.  First time, I thought I hit the wrong line....the second time, I carefully hit the proper line and still got the broadcast company video site and looked for the proper broadcast line.....and still could not find the button to hit.   Did see that the broadcast vender is used by the Colby program.

amh63,
It wasn't you hitting the wrong line. A number of times in the past week or so I've hit the video or live stat links on the D3hoops scoreboard and completely different schools have popped up. I don't think it's a D3hoops problem as I've gotten the same thing when I went to a school's website and used the video or live stat link there. Does make one wonder if they're having a "senior moment" though.

If you see that on a school website, can you let me know? We have had PrestoSports working on this bug for a couple of weeks now and that would be a key piece of info if we can replicate it.

So far we have only seen this in men's basketball, not women's, but do please let me know if you see more of it.

Will do, Pat.

[madzillagd]

We are 1/3 of the way into the season and not surprisingly the cream is beginning to rise to the top.  A few more games to go before teams are off on break but the four that we thought would be at the top are right where we'd expect them to be.  Who is the best team in the NESCAC at this point? First thought by many would be the #3 in the nation Midd Panthers and you can't argue against winning all the games you play.  However, if we are going to be a bit more subjective (because it livens up the board), I'm not willing to say that Midd is a better team yet than Williams, or possibly Amherst or Wesleyan. Ok, maybe not Amherst and Wesleyan. Obviously we'll find out in league but here's some Friday fun to think about and discuss.

For those that don't know, the current records are
Midd: 7-0
Williams: 7-1
Amherst: 6-2
Wesleyan: 6-3

As mentioned above, on W/L alone Midd is at the top of the heap.  However, if we look a little deeper that undefeated record loses a little luster.   Through yesterday's games, the winning % of their opponents:

Midd:   .373
Williams:  .483      
Amherst:   .426
Wesleyan:  .567

While Midd has the best record, they've played the worse teams of the bunch and it really isn't that close.  Wesleyan may have lost 3 times but those 3 teams are a combined 19-4  Midd has only played 1 team with a winning record this year, a 5-2 Plattsburgh St squad.  Here's how many winning squads the teams have played: 

Midd: 1
Williams: 4  (lost 1)
Amherst: 2   (lost 2 - ouch)
Wesleyan: 5  (lost 3)

On the flip side, the # of opponents with a losing record each has played: 
Midd: 4
Williams: 2
Amherst: 5
Wesleyan: 3

Amherst has played the most sub-par teams and the two times they played winning teams they lost both games.  The most tested to this point are Wesleyan and Williams with Williams being the most successful.  Midd has yet to be tested. 

I think the one thing that stands out to me the most about the Midd performance so far this year is not that they haven't played anyone yet, but the difficulty they've had in beating the teams they are playing.  Here's the average scoring differential against teams .500 or better:

Midd: 7
Williams:  20.8
Amherst: 2.3
Wesleyan: 7

Midd isn't exactly blowing out the better teams on their schedule even if they've manage to win all 3 games they've played.  In fact, they beat one sub-.500 team by only 8 points compared to the worst differential by Williams against a sub-.500 team being 24 points (Amherst/Wesleyan - both won by at least 15 against sub-.500 teams). 

For my money, I have to say Williams is the best team in the NESCAC going into this weekend of play because they've been tested and they've proven themselves.  Despite their 7-0 record, Midd has yet to be tested and even with a weaker schedule they've struggled to win games against inferior opponents.  Amherst and Wesleyan both need to prove they can beat winning teams.  It's great to rack up wins against weaker squads but that doesn't mean much when you lose the majority of your games against winning teams. 

A few more tests are coming up this weekend.  Williams takes on a 7-1 Springfield team that beat Amherst.  Amherst has a 7-1 Brandeis whose only loss was to #14 RIC.  Wesleyan has a 4-4 Curry team but those 4 losses are to teams with a combined 29-5 record.  Finally, Midd is playing a 5-1 Skidmore team, but once again the 5 wins came against teams that are combined 7- 28.  If Williams wins tomorrow against a good Springfield team, regardless of what Midd does, there's no doubt in my mind they are the top team going into the break. 

[pick and roll]

Madman - great analysis not sure I buy any of it though - until they get into conference play who knows but I like stirring up the discussion.  Coming into season I had Amherst one since they are the champs with most of their key contributors returning and a toss up with Midd and Williams and really thought Wes was right in the mix (which I think could be the case with Thomas back playing).  Not sure Midd can do much better than win its games - if you think they should win by more does that mean  coach Brown should shorten his bench as opposed to developing his team for the season and see who can contribute - these early season games are where you find that out don't you think?

[amh63]

Madz....Almost think you work for some  company that does the unemployment numbers that we saw too much off during the elections
Was going to respond to your analyses on Sat.....but have a few minutes before the "CAC" games on tap....so here goes for now.
It is an somewhat bias selection of data to lead to a particular viewpoint/outcome,IMHO.  Like pick and roll, it is early and the early games with the selected opponents are for developing and evaluating players/teams, etc. 
One can go deeper into particular games and get more data to come up with a different view.  For example, take the Babson team that took down Amherst last night.  It lost to a Tufts team big.  It also beat a Wes. team.  Going into the Tufts lost, one sees that the Jumbos won the game because it controlled the boards and OUTSHOT Babson from outside big time, while Babson could not hit from outside. Sounds a little like what Babson did to Amherst.  Going into the Wes. lost to Babson, the stats for rebounds, TO, steals, etc. for both teams were quite similiar....except for one area.  Babson shot and made foul shots.  Babson had 26 attempts to Wes.'s 12 attempts.  To Babson's credit, they made 23 while Wes. made 10-12....both fine averages.  The foul shots made more than made up the difference in the scores.
In short, the numbers do not always tell one what the contest was like, etc.  Looking at the scores and spreads do not tell one who was hurt or what players played fewer minutes due to fouls.....and so on. 
Maybe more on Sat....and I maybe off on some of the numbers but I hope you get my points.

[toad22]

It is fun to analyze stats and see where it takes you. I'm not really sure the results always hold up though. Comparative scores/wins can lead to some fun projections. I remember one year when I was playing at Williams in the late 60s or maybe 1970, Williams beat Rochester, and with only about three jumps (williams beats Rochester, Rechester beats ..., etc), Williams should beat Houston for the National Championship! Obviously insane. In the case of the NESCAC, I agree with Madzillagd that we don't yet know enough about Middlebury's strength. They just haven't been tested enough yet. We do know that they are very deep with experienced players that have proved their abilities. I'm still thinking that they are the team to beat in the league.

I watched the second half of the Amherst-Babson game. Amherst looked a lot like Williams looked in H2 of the Stevens. They were detached and somewhat listless, particularly on the defensive side. Babson, of course, shot the lights out. It was a really poor game for Amherst, and will hurt them come tournement time. I'm not sure it says much about they'll play in the NESCAC. We know the talent level of Toomey, Workman, etc. In addition to the veterans, Connor Green looked really good. There is no doubt that they have the talent to run the NESCAC table if they get on a roll.

[Old Guy]

I would only offer a couple of comments in response to Madz's impressive analysis.

Middlebury is 7-0. We have played three weak in-state teams (SoVT - 0-8; Johnson St - 3-5; Green Mountain 1-7), and beaten them by a combined 108 points, as we should have.

The other four wins were all on the road, against decent teams (combined w-l record - 16-14). These teams - Plattsburgh, Ursinus, Johnson & Wales, Lebanon Valley could well end up with good records. Any win on the road is a good win.

It may be that Middlebury will not be as dominant as in the past four years: record against Amherst & Williams - 4 wins 3 losses against each; record against the rest of NESCAC (including Hamilton) 36-0.

We'll see. I hope we play well against Skidmore at home tomorrow.

[frank uible]

The onanism of accepting, modifying or rejecting these viewpoints is unnecessary. The definitive answers will be completely manifest in a few short weeks.

[grabtherim]

Way too much analysis.  While I dont discount all of this endless stream of numbers, I like to watch games and let my eyes tell me what I see.  More Al McGuire then Moneyball.  Al almost never knew kids names, even his own players, but he would watch the first 10 minutes of a game and tell you who could do what on the floor and what each team needed to do to win.
Skidmore seems to be leaning on some Freshman guards and overall a very young rotation.  They have played Midd tough the past few seasons with a up tempo style.  I am sure Coach Brown and the Midd players remember this.  Should be a good one. 

[Old Guy]

My favorite Al McGuire quotation (I heard in person at a clinic): "the best thing in sports is winning; the second best thing is losing." Competing, playing the game is everything.

[amh63]

Cannot add much after Frank's comment.
I miss Al and his analyses...also!
Saw a story in the Wash. Post today on the Georgetown MBB team.  Lead headline..."Hoyas aim to develop reserves"....sub headline..."No. 15 Georgetown enters light home stretch before Big East play".
Let the games proceed!  Will be able to catch the Williams game at 1 PM, before the Amherst game at 3 PM and maybe even some of the Midd. game at 4 PM.

[walzy31]

Brandeis -12.5 @ Amherst
O/U: 144.5



This hurts to post

[old_hooper]

This will be an interesting day for CAC top tier

Williams and Springfield (let's see if Springfield win over Amherst was for real.  A follow up with one on the Ephs would put an explanation mark on it)

Wes and Curry (curry is a solid team.  They gave the Ephs everything they could handle.  This will be a challenge for Wes on the road)

Amherst and Brandies (the jeffs are not playing at a level they are capable of.  Games with judges are always competitive.  Amherst will have to play much better than they have to win this game today)

Midd and Skidmore (this outcome is probably the most predictable.  However, as stated skid has played the Panthers tough the last couple times they have played. One Midds tougher tests of the year)

We should have a better feel for the CAC front runners by the end of the day.

[nescac1]

I love Amherst with that spread. 

[Bucket]

Amherst and over.