MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Another example of Williams' tough schedule.

Granted, Amh63, Williams has not faced a murderer's row like Amherst has, including Newbury, Western New England, Medger Evers, Emmanuel, and Anna Maria ... actually, all three of Williams, Amherst and Midd have faced more than their share of patsies, but at least Williams and Amherst each play 6-7 legitimately tough non-conference opponents (for Williams, Amherst, Wesleyan, Luther, Springfield, Salem State, Stevens, for Amherst, Williams, Wesleyan, RIC, Brandeis, Springfield, and for both, Curry is at least very tough to guard). 

Speaking of patsies, sounds like an ugly game that Midd was involved in last night.  Castleton tried to actually play with Williams, and got destroyed by 44, so I guess they decided to go into a game-long stall vs. Midd to at least limit the scoring margin.  But again, I really don't see a lot of value in playing a team like this for either Midd or Williams at this juncture in the season (the first few weeks, sure, just to kind of get some rhythm going).  Same thing with the Ephs last night, as they cruised to another predictable win over an outmatched opponent.  Of course, things get a lot tougher for Williams with some big showdowns on the horizon.

I saw Williamson was out for Amherst, another flu victim? 

In statistical news, both Williams and Midd continue to shoot the lights out.  Williams is third, Midd fourth, nationally in FGP, and Williams is fifth, Midd sixth, nationally in 3PT FGP.  Williams is also second nationally in FGP defense.  The Williams zone is continuing to flummox other teams into bad shots, although I wonder how it will work against a team with top-notch perimeter players like Midd or Amherst.  Since Midd is a veteran, organized team with good passers and in particular has plenty of guys who can really shoot, but only one real inside scorer and only one real quick penetrating threat from the guard position, I kind of feel like man-to-man is a better bet in that game in particular.  I also worry about letting Toomey get off from outside shooting vs. a zone.  The Ephs also continue to struggle giving up some offensive rebounds, which is also pretty much inevitable when playing zone.

Coach Maker is nothing if not innovative.  The other strategy he uses which I've almost never seen is that in many free throw situations (particularly late in games) he does not put in any offensive rebounders.  I guess he figures that on average you are only going to get maybe 1-2 extra possessions per game from an offensive rebound off a foul shot (if that many, I can't imagine it could possibly be more), and he'd rather rest his players more and also avoid any transition buckets off a free throw.  Also, the team never presses, basically, so they aren't giving up a chance at ball-pressure off a made free throw, and instead can get their defense set.  Given the opposing FGP, the strategy seems to work,  but certainly interesting and I wonder if it is statistically-tested in some fashion. 

In individual accomplishments for the Ephs, James Klemm needs to nail 40 more threes to break the Eph record.  Unlikely unless the Ephs go really far in both the NESCAC and NCAA tourney, but he does have an outside shot if he keeps shooting at his current scorching (49 percent from 3) pace.  Speaking of scorching, Taylor Epley continues to have a dominant individual year for Williams, currently averaging 20 points, 4 board, 2 assists, fewer than 2 turnovers, nailing 3 triples per game while shooting 52/48/88, playing tremendous defense, and rarely resting on the bench in close games.  He is the most well-rounded offensive player I've seen in NESCAC for some time (similar to Blake Schultz overall, but a bit more of an inside game than Blake).  I'm guessing he'll likely by guarded by the two best individual defenders in NESCAC in the next few weeks, and two guys who are a bit quicker than him -- Willy Workman and Nolan Thompson -- which should be great match-ups to watch, and real battles. 

[grabtherim]

Sounds like Midd played down to the competition last night with Lynch having a layup drill inside.  Hamilton up next for the Panthers.  Not much posted on them.  I see from the stats their leading scorer is a freshman guard and Jeremy Lin's brother plays a few minutes each game.  Can we get a synopsis on them from someone?  Nolan Thompson will reach the 1,000 point mark in the game as he needs 3 to do it.         

[Old Guy]

. . . in many free throw situations (particularly late in games) he does not put in any offensive rebounders.NESCAC1

My assumption has always been that you take offensive rebounders away in order to diminish the possibility of fouling and its consequences (stopping the clock) - as well as setting up the defense. Two (offensive) rebounders vs three or four (defensive) doesn't result in many rebounds and often results in a foul in the rebounding action ("over the back, ref!").

[Ethelred the Unready]

Sounds like Midd played down to the competition last night with Lynch having a layup drill inside.  Hamilton up next for the Panthers.  Not much posted on them.  I see from the stats their leading scorer is a freshman guard and Jeremy Lin's brother plays a few minutes each game.  Can we get a synopsis on them from someone?  Nolan Thompson will reach the 1,000 point mark in the game as he needs 3 to do it.         

As I posted earlier, I saw Hamilton play Rochester a few weeks ago.  They got down 18-2 (or so) in the first 5 minutes and never really looked like they wanted to be there.  I recall one of their posts seemed to play well, but nothing really stood out, though in all honesty, I was there to see Rochester.  Shortly after that Hamilton lost by ~20 to SUNY Morrisville - never a good sign.  They do seem to be playing better lately so I guess it's possible that they got a player back from an early injury or their rotation is starting to gel.

[amh63]

Nescac1....I will say this about you.....you do post at a most reasonable hour even though I find supporters of Williams are a bit sensitive at times.  Not you Frank U.
Its Winter!...The Amherst website has changed its background screen to a Winter scene....nice! and the campus is getting a new coat of snow.  My wife gets a daily report of the weather from our daughter in the Ithaca area...it is snowing there.   Our sons are now driving from Brooklyn Heights northward at this hour...maybe thru snow and in the D.C. area we are expecting a little snow.  It is Winter as I need to make travel plans today up to Amherst to see my first games LIVE  before becoming a "snowbird".
I realize that I cannot be the "data nerd" like some Williams posters and that in watching a game on a streaming video or even live, my post of what I see in a contest will be different than someone else.  What I see in games are often different from say what Walzy sees.....see earlier posts.   Therefore, I will NOW post what I find most interesting in games....more opinions and less data facts.
In the game last night, Allen Williamson did not play and Connor Green was his replacement as a starter.  At halftime, he walked off in street clothes as did Logan Buckner.  Why? do not know.  It seems that Amherst's bench is getting shorter as it is getting longer.  Amherst played 8 players last night with R. Barry getting more time and even handling the ball more and guarding S. Brown...you do not get floor time at Amherst unless you play defense.  Ben Pollock had more minutes on the floor than Big Pete and had a career high of 8 rebounds.  Ben is getting to be a fine classic 5 player.  He had two blocks and his rebounds are sure and strong ones.  Big Pete had two early fouls but still had 3 blocks with Willy Workman getting 2 blocks.  Amherst had 7 blocks and the Cardinals none.  Another stat illustrates how the offenses differ in last night's game.  Wes. had only about 4 assist and their guards few.  Amherst had 13 assists with Toomey leading the way with 6.  Wes. has only three primary scorers while Amherst now has about 7 players that can score in double figures consistently. 
Amherst is developing more players to contribute in games.....but injuries and illness have recently shorten the bench...hear Coach Hixon's interview.   Meanwhile, Wesleyan had 11 players enter the game and at times, it looked like a train station as Cardinals went  in and out...to confuse Amherst players on who to guard??
Speaking of defense.....Amherst plays primarily man to man, even on the impossible to stop S. Brown.  I believe, Wesleyan played a form of zone primarily with Toomey getting double teamed up top to prevent his drives and his outside shots.  In the second half, I remember Aaron finally getting a help screen and making a long 3.  The Amherst fans clapped and the Wes. Coach quickly called a time-out....did not want Aaron to go on a run.  Amherst adjusted their outside offense a bit and passed the ball around outside and sometimes across to shooters like Green, Killian, and Kalema.  When several 3 point shots were made, the Wes. Coach again quickly called a time-out.

[Old Guy]

The video feed was fine but there was no vocal..."technical difficulties"  The game was not bad without sound.

I found it very hard to watch without the sound, couldn't tell the atmosphere in the gym. Looked like an AAU game. The camera was on the student side of the gym shooting into the bleachers behind the team benches which were half-empty. No sense of the excitement whatever.

I followed the Midd game on live stats. Castleton is less than 30 miles down the road from us, an in-state school, won its league last year, went to the tournament. It's reasonable we play them. They play in the same league as UMaine-Farmington, who beat Bowdoin. Mark Comstock is a good player (16 ppg - MVP in the league last year).

Dave Wolk, a Rutland native and Midd grad, has done a wonderful job at Castleton. He has used sports to establish school loyalty and spirit. He built a football stadium and added ice hockey. He sold the faculty when he showed them the football/hockey GPA actually raised the school standard. He received an honorary doctorate from his alma mater last spring.

[WPI89]

Williams -35.5 @ Lyndon
O/U: 141.0
My freshman year at Amherst the starting 11 of my soccer team was taller than Lyndon's basketball team.

Williams 90 @ Lyndon 59 (Lyndon Cover +4.5)
O/U: 141.0 (Over +8.0)

Crushed

35 1/2 points is a lot for the Thunder to spot Williamstown Elementary School. I take the points and Lyndon.

+1 Karma (I'll get you tomorrow Frank. I -1'd for you for one of your posts while I was out of town and caught up today.

Walzy - I will take Williams to cover and the under.

-2 Karma...tough day at the sports book for WPI. Make it back this weekend!

[lumbercat]

Old Guy-
I don't know Dave Wolk but that is a great story about what he has done with his Athletic program.
That kind of commitment to Athletics and it's role in the education process reminds me of a past Dean at Bates.

[amh63]

Old Guy....Maybe I often notice things around me when I zone out.........My wife often tells me that I'm "deaf to the world" at times.
Yes the atmosphere may go but often crowd noise can be a distraction.  The "student side" at Amherst is divided by the adult Amherst supporters to the right...parents, townies, and alumns, etc.....ones that "clap" and the real students on the left side that do all sorts of things.  Saw the students rise from their seats only once, I believe.....when Kalema in a drive to the basket (left side....therefore in the first half) and "flushed" the basket down as two defenders watched.  Wes. was packing the lanes around the basket so not many dunks otherwise.....Williamson on the bench in street clothes.
With regards to Hamilton.....my take.  In the early game with Rochester they did not impress.  In the game with Amherst, they took Amherst to the limit.  Last year the FY Lin was in games longer and Hamilton had an all conference front court senior player that was also a top player in the Liberty League.  This year, with a younger squad, Lin seems to come off the bench....though he did get three baskets on Amherst.  Amherst was totally flat in the first half against Hamilton.  If Midd. plays like they did.....as described by the Midd...posters....I believe they will have a dog fight on their hands.  The new Hamilton coach knows how to win in tough conferences.

[jayhawk]

Nice article on Jacob Nabatoff, Amherst recruit, appears to be an evolving player
http://www.thecharlotteweekly.com/sports/2013/01/big-mans-role-fits-nabatoff/

[walzy31]

Friday January 18th NESCAC Spreads

Hamilton @ Middlebury
Middlebury -10.5
O/U: 129.0


Wesleyan @ Tufts
Tufts -2.0
O/U: 140.5


Colby @ Trinity
Trinity -4.0
O/U: 124.5


Bowdoin @ Amherst
Amherst -13.5
O/U: 136.0


Conn College @ Bates
Bates -7.0
O/U: 142.5

[WPI89]

Friday January 18th NESCAC Spreads

Hamilton @ Middlebury
Middlebury -10.5
O/U: 129.0

Midd/over

Wesleyan @ Tufts
Tufts -2.0
O/U: 140.5

Tufts/over

Colby @ Trinity
Trinity -4.0
O/U: 124.5

Colby/over

Bowdoin @ Amherst
Amherst -13.5
O/U: 136.0

Amherst/over

Conn College @ Bates
Bates -7.0
O/U: 142.5

CC/Under

2 years of karma - could all be wiped out in one bad night!

[amh63]

WPI89......That is why you play the game!   Good Luck.....and your picks will self-destruct in 10 seconds.....
Watched some amazing Div1 games recently....Badgers of Wis. upsetting the Hooisers of Indiana....great coaches and great defensive plays/intensities and yet low overall scores.  Visual atmosphere of the fans, bands, students...but not much noise except for the announcers....the networks do reduce the background "atmospheric" sounds quite a bit..it seems.
It appears that the only undefeated Div.1 BB team is the WBB team of Duke.    The Div3 teams remaining undefeated...both men and women are getting smaller and we are only in mid-season.  Congrats to local Midd. and WPI again.

[nescac1]

Walzy, I love Midd (which despite the injuries I think is due for a big home win over an outmatched opponent) and the over.  I also love Tufts.   

The rest of them are tougher, but Ill say under in Wes/Tufts, Colby and the over, Bowdoin with a late garbage time cover and the over, Conn and the under. 

[frank uible]

Your correspondent perceives no overlays in this week's line by walzy. The first rule of successful gambling is to bet only where there is an overlay and consequently to refrain from betting solely for the sake of action.