MBB: NESCAC

[Old Guy]

Tomorrow's games:

Bowdoin 78 - Colby 61
Middlebury 69 - Williams 68 (OT)
Trinity 59 - Amherst 81
Tufts 63 - Bates 65
Wesleyan 66 - Conn College 56

[amh63]

OLD GUY....NICE!   Taking a Robert Frost like path..me thinks.  Hope it is not a protest of sorts against the NCAA.

[7express]

Another day to wait for meaningful conference games.  Since my blood pressure does not allow me to wager on Walzy's spreads...too much stress when you have a "bet" down.  When younger did bet on the horses, even pig races,,,never on dogs.  I know...talk about this board.....first, it is pass Jan. 19th.....shouldn't the "poll" above be removed.  Who put it up?  Put up too early in the season and each passing day becomes more meaningless....more a poll of school supporters.    Hope I did not arouse the hornets'.

Lumbercat....agreed with your comments on Old Guy....must remember he teaches English though.  Does your use of the word Class infer Classic... to imply he is OLD?

There was a conference school game last night.  Husson beat Colby at Colby last night...quite soundly.  I know, Amherst had its way with Colby recently....but do not understand what is going on with Colby.  Any comments from followers of the Maine schools?
Did look up Husson....learned it is in the same town/city as Bowdoin and has two players that transferred in from Maryland community colleges...interesting.
On a more serious note....I also have a question on why Williams employs the zone defense so much.  Saw Williams use it against Hamilton and it surprised me.  When the flu/illness reports of the Williams' players appeared, I figured the zone was used to conserve energy of recovering players and maybe the "short" bench.  Thinking back, I remember that the Cardinals of Wesleyan used a bit of zone against Amherst.  Is it because of match-up problems?  Other than Nescac1, there has been few comments of match-up situations  between teams to date.  The season is half over and we shoud know the players of the teams better???...backup a bit here.  One poster did comment/opin on how Amherst matchs-up well across the conference.
"Balls" thrown into the court......any takers/players?

I know (thought??) Bowdoin was the only school in Brunswick and could've sworn Husson was in Bangor.

[Panthernation]

Williams Preview: http://blogs.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2013/01/25/the-route-7-rivalry/

(Probably wrote too much for anyone to read about one game. The gist: It's going to be a great game but Williams is more talented and will probably win.)

[fanfromct]

Bowdoin certainly is in Brunswick, and Husson is certainly in Bangor.
I know - it's a lot longer trip from CT to see Bowdoin play at Husson than to it is to see them play at home.

[pick and roll]

Panthernation - nice analysis but I am sure Peter Lynch will not be coming off the bench or get less minutes today he will need to be a big contributor inside.  I could see Jensen matching up with Mayer and giving him some real problems as he did at the end of the Tufts game against Palleshi - that would be my aggressive suggestion.  I also think Merryman will be a significant factor against WIlliams particularly if they play a zone - he has to be the best shooter in the NESCAC that no one talks about.  The lack of a bench scorer for Williams will be a factor and I think Middlebury will pull this one out - Kizel always produces in the big games like today I expect a big game from him. 

[Old Guy]

The gist: It's going to be a great game but Williams is more talented and will probably win.) Panthernation

Panther Nation: What! What are you doing? Go to your room. There is something to too much objectivity. You may think this sentiment, but you may not utter it. It gives succor to the enemy. It's like betting against your own team. I bet Walzy has never done that (though he only rarely need consider it). When the Panthers win today, I will conjure suitable penance for you.

[Panthernation]

Panthernation - nice analysis but I am sure Peter Lynch will not be coming off the bench or get less minutes today he will need to be a big contributor inside.  I could see Jensen matching up with Mayer and giving him some real problems as he did at the end of the Tufts game against Palleshi - that would be my aggressive suggestion.  I also think Merryman will be a significant factor against WIlliams particularly if they play a zone - he has to be the best shooter in the NESCAC that no one talks about.  The lack of a bench scorer for Williams will be a factor and I think Middlebury will pull this one out - Kizel always produces in the big games like today I expect a big game from him.

That doesn't seem to address the problem that led to the suggestion (the suggestion for less minutes, never said anything about changing the starting lineup). Who do you put Lynch on considering the athleticism of Williams at 3 and 4? He doesn't have the quickness to stick with Epley outside of 15 feet, or the length to stop Mayer inside. Just think if I'm Williams I'm a lot more worried about scoring if Roberts and Jensen are matching up most of the time that my starters are in the game.

[Panthernation]

Panther Nation: What! What are you doing? Go to your room. There is something to too much objectivity. You may think this sentiment, but you may not utter it. It gives succor to the enemy. It's like betting against your own team. I bet Walzy has never done that (though he only rarely need consider it). When the Panthers win today, I will conjure suitable penance for you.

It's hard to write a blog where we predict every game and purport to put some sort of analysis into the process if we just pick Middlebury to win always. Don't worry, as soon as we get to Williamstown today there will be no succor-giving.

[Old Guy]

RE: Husson

Two years ago, 2011, Williams drew Husson in the first round of the NCAA Tourney and beat them 86-83 in overtime - a real scare at the beginning of their way to the Final Four. A Colby loss to Husson is not necessarily a sign of the Apocalypse. These small schools sometimes put together loaded teams.

[Old Guy]

It's hard to write a blog where we predict every game and purport to put some sort of analysis into the process if we just pick Middlebury to win always.

Are you serious? How hard has it been to predict victories this year - we're 16-0. How hard was it last year? We lost four one-possession games. How hard has it been for the five years - 90% victories. Also, it's Williams! The vaunted Ephs (Ephs - gimme a break). Save your objectivity for the tournament, maybe.

You're out of the will.

[pick and roll]

Panther on Panther crime.

[pick and roll]

One thing I am a little concerned about is the team rebounding - Midd's guards will need to be active boxing out and contributing in that area today.  Can't wait to log on the Williams web site and sign up to watch this afternoon.

[madzillagd]

I for one appreciate the objective write ups which is why I read them. They called a loss against Tufts too and were almost right. You can't be taken seriously unless you are somewhat objective.  I say keep up the good work.

For me, this game is all about 3s. For Midd to win they need to outshoot Williams from deep by at least 3 threes if not 4. If they can do that they can walk away with a W.

[walzy31]

Old Guy,

In the last ten years I've made Amherst an underdog probably a total of twenty games. They lost 12-13 of those games and obviously have lost more than twenty games in the past decade (although not too many more). I use some formulas to create lines and sometimes, even if I think Amherst is going to win personally (which is 98% of the time), I have to go with what the numbers say. I remember a Williams game three or four years ago where I had Williams as 4-point favorites. It was hard for me to do but it seemed like a good line. Game was tied with 2:00 left and Williams ended up winning by four. Those are the games I wish I was wrong.

Being a bookmaker is part science and part art...if I am supposed to make Bowdoin a three-point favorite but I think they are going to win by 15, then I will make the line much closer to 15 and make it harder for you all to pick the right side. Since I can't actually lose money, I have all the incentive to try and come as close as possible to predicting the actual outcome. To me, winning is when the final scores are +/- 3.0 points from the posted line.

That said, I don't know how PantherNation can say Williams is more talented than Middlebury when Williams hasn't beaten them since Troy Whittington was on the floor.