MBB: NESCAC

[walzy31]

Last point:

None of the big three play more than 7 or 8 guys that can contribute, but Williams certainly appears to be the thinnest in terms of drop off after starting 5. Missing ANY starter in their lineup for a game (tonight it was Wohl), would make it very difficult for them to compete against top competition.

Nescac1, I agree that Mayer is a matchup problem for Amherst, but if Williams plays Amherst a third time (it will either be in the NESCAC Semis in Middlebury due to a coin flip, in the finals at Lefrak if Williams beats Midd in the semis, or in the finals at Williams if Williams win the coin toss and Amherst gets by Midd in semis), aside from wishful 12-pt swings on "if they miss those two threes and we make two threes," I think Amherst will hammer them again. I hope we play Williams two more times this year while both teams have their current personnel.

[lefrakenstein]

  I do think the Ephs will turn things around a bit vs. Amherst next year based on who the Jeffs lose this year and who Williams has returning (particularly getting Rooke-Ley back from injury is huge next year).  But for this year, the best hope may be for Williams to eek out a win over Midd and for Tufts to stun Amherst  (assuming that is how the seeding goes).

Way too early to look ahead, but Amherst is going to need to get something out of their current sophomore class in order to remain at the top of the NESCAC in Toomey's senior year. Hopefully Buckner will get healthy or Barry will start being a major contributor. Mussachia was another guy who came in with a lot of hype. Workman, Kaasila and Williamson is an awful lot to lose. Then again, so was Holmes, Barrise and Waller.

But Williams loses Robertson who is the lynch pin of their offense. 

[nescac1]

Agree with Walzy that Williams really struggles without any starter this year due to depth issues.  Ephs are 0-2 without Wohl and I'm fairly confident they would have won one of those (Stevens) with him. Every team loses guys to injuries, and the big three in NESCAC have all had significant injuries this year, so you have to be ready to compensate. 

I don't blame Walzy for being confident after watching those two games.  I still don't think beating Amherst is impossible for Williams, but it's certainly a long shot.  I'd take another Williams-Amherst meeting, or better yet two, because it would mean in the latter case, most likely, a deep NCAA run for the Ephs.   But on the other hand, it's pretty nice that Williams still has a perfect record vs. Amherst in both NESCAC title games and in NCAA games, (3-0 and 4-0, respectively) so one side of me would love to keep that record intact until personnel changes for both teams even the stakes a bit (or possibly tilt the odds in Williams' favor).  Nate will be a huge loss for Williams but the return of Rooke-Ley should help the backcourt a lot, and some other younger guys on the roster will have a chance to show what they can do.  IN all events, a lot can still happen this year and I'd count the Ephs out at your peril. 

[jayhawk]

Williams is a fine team with lots of talent. Impressed by Mayer's development-like Epley. Really like Robertson. Wohl with good skill set. This year is not over yet.
Amherst needs to stay focused.

[lefrakenstein]

Close first half in Middlebury  - Trinity trails by 2.

A Trinity win would seal a top seed for Amherst in the NESCAC tournament.

[Ashley Parker Angel]

The regular season comes to a close today for Wesleyan after what was certainly a confusing season from an outsider's standpoint -- they finish up 12-12 and 4-6 in the NESCAC after starting the season with a national preseason ranking of 23 (they've definitely missed the efficient play of Jason Mendell, '12). The Cardinals lost to Bowdoin yesterday after cutting what was at one point nearly a 20 point Bowdoin lead to 2 in the final minutes. It was too little too late, though, and you just have to wonder what it is that is keeping a relatively athletic team from pulling it together on defense for a full 40 minutes. In any case, Wesleyan finished the regular season off strong today against Colby, winning 73 to 47. They are a team of extreme ups and downs and while they lack any convincing wins over ranked opponents, they have proven that they can play with anyone and will be a tough out in any round of postseason play. It looks like they will most likely be headed up to Middlebury for the first round of the playoffs. In their first trip up to VT this year they lost by 1 in OT to the Panthers. Don't want to speculate too much as seedings are in no way final as of this time but Cardinal fans can at least be optimistic as their squad will be a tough tough underdog no matter whose gym they are in.

[quicksilver]

With its 60-56 win over Conn College, Bowdoin will be the 5th seed and will travel to Tufts for the quarterfinals next Saturday.

[7express]

So if Trinity ends up losing (down 41-33 with about 10 minutes left) that gets Hamilton in as the 8th team and sets the tournament, order still to be decided??

[pick and roll]

Nice day in the snow at Pepin with B-ball and hockey wins. 

Agree with old guy - this is what Midd wants Amherst at home on Tuesday for first place.    Nescac1 not sure we can say Amherst is substantially better than Midd yet - although I agree they have demonstrated they can easily beat Williams.  I expect a close win for Panthers against Jeffs.  Panthers match up well with Amherst and can match their athletic play.  Predict Lynch who is averaging 15 and in the top of D III in field goal %  will have a big game and Thompson will slow down Toomey.

[toad22]

The primary reason that I think Midd has a decent chance vs Amherst is Nolan Thompson. As an on-ball defender, he is the best of this NESCAC generation, the best in at least 10-15 years. If he can take Toomey out of the game, they have a good chance. If not, no chance, IMHO. Of course, as an Eph I'm pulling for Middlebury.

[lefrakenstein]

I have to say, watching Midd get crushed on the boards today by Trinity, I'm not sure how well the Panthers are going to match up with Amherst.

We'll see what happens, but at any rate, Midd will need to play better on Tuesday than they played this evening.

[mathteacher]

Where have you gone, Mike Nogelo, Eph Nation turns its lonely eyes to you. 

The Ice Man never would have gone 1-8 from the field vs. Amherst.  Just saying. 

[trixiep]

I have to say, watching Midd get crushed on the boards today by Trinity, I'm not sure how well the Panthers are going to match up with Amherst.

We'll see what happens, but at any rate, Midd will need to play better on Tuesday than they played this evening.

Brilliant!

[madzillagd]

Unfortunately the matchup for the top spot today played out exactly how I thought it would.  Fortunately, I was watching from a bar at Squaw Valley so despite the poor video quality, I couldn't ask for a better setting to wash down the loss.  Williams is not scoring points.  In the 60s last several games (Bowdoin game they had 61 at end of regulation), today only 48.  Starters are struggling from defensive pressure, shooting off, illness, etc.  Bench provides no help.  I think they'll squeeze out a win on Tuesday against Trinity but in the NESCAC tourney I expect more of the same unfortunately.     

[Old Guy]

Strange game, Midd-Trinity, 66-59. No flow, no rhythm - 52 fouls called (and Middlebury is not exactly bruiser outfit).

I didn't know much about the Bantams as there are no Trin posters. They have some players, young players: they go to frosh Jaquann Starks but he was only 4-15 (14 points). Their big soph center, Papadeas, was a factor, with 12 points and 14 rebounds. He plays hard. I was most impressed with frosh Shay Ajayi, a slender graceful player: he had 12 points on 4-7 shooting, hit a couple of nice contested 17' baseline jump shots and had eight boards (4 offensive).

I had never seen Cosgrove in person: he's very "animated." I'm not sure why the officials allow him to spend most of the game, while in play, 2,3' out on the floor. Is there such a thing as the "coach's box" or am I behind the times? And the refs converse with him. Why? He never stops. He must say "Golly gee," or "Oh fudge!" a lot because there were no techs.

Lynch had two fouls in the first three minutes, played sparse minutes, still managed 14 points in 19 minutes (4-5, 6-8). He's a rock. We're much better offensively when he's in there. He's so tough around the hoop that other opportunities arise. We did not shoot well - 4-15 from three. Merryman (12 points) had two of those threes, big ones. He has great range, really extends  the defense. Kizell played 36 minutes, had 16 tough points. In a grinder like this one, he's a gamer. Wolfin was 6-6 from the line, that helped. Roberts had four blocks.

Today was not a great game, but Midd has played very well of late. You would do well not to underestimate this club. Since January 29, 2010 and a 69-64 loss at Williams, Middlebury is 58-7 (27-3 in NESCAC): all seven losses are one possession losses. These guys come to play. Conventional wisdom may be that Amherst is better, but I suspect they won't come to Vermont overconfident. Last year's games were classics. Maybe another Tuesday night, our gym this time.