MBB: NESCAC

[Panthernation]

If anyone is interested we'll be talking NESCAC basketball for the full duration of our weekly sports talk radio show from 2:00-3:30 pm today. We will be joined by a few guests from the team over the course of the 90 minutes. You can listen here: http://boombox.middlebury.edu:8000/WRMC192.m3u

[walzy31]

Saturday February 23, 2013 NESCAC Semi-Final Spreads

#4 Tufts @ #1 Amherst
Amherst -7.5
O/U: 168.5

#3 Williams Vs. #2 Middlebury (@ Amherst)
Middlebury -10.0
O/U: 130.5

Odds to Win 2013 NESCAC Championship
Amherst -110
Middlebury +150
Tufts +500
Williams +700

[walzy31]

Side note:

I had no takers at school on Williams +600 (6:1) and for the first time in eight years I actually have material action on one of these games...so exciting for me.

[grabtherim]

Saturday February 23, 2013 NESCAC Semi-Final Spreads

#4 Tufts @ #1 Amherst
Amherst -7.5
O/U: 168.5

#3 Williams Vs. #2 Middlebury (@ Amherst)
Middlebury -10.0
O/U: 130.5

Odds to Win 2013 NESCAC Championship
Amherst -110
Middlebury +150
Tufts +500
Williams +700

Walzy - Is the Midd line a typo?  minus 10?  I think I predicted your line of Amherst -7.5 over Tufts on the nose, but thought you might have the Will/Midd game as a pick'em.  Without giving away top secret stuff, can you enlighten us on the thought process to get to this line which I would guess most if not all us rocket scientists who post here find shocking.   

[Hugenerd]

Saturday February 23, 2013 NESCAC Semi-Final Spreads

#4 Tufts @ #1 Amherst
Amherst -7.5
O/U: 168.5

#3 Williams Vs. #2 Middlebury (@ Amherst)
Middlebury -10.0
O/U: 130.5

Odds to Win 2013 NESCAC Championship
Amherst -110
Middlebury +150
Tufts +500
Williams +700

Walzy - Is the Midd line a typo?  minus 10?  I think I predicted your line of Amherst -7.5 over Tufts on the nose, but thought you might have the Will/Midd game as a pick'em.  Without giving away top secret stuff, can you enlighten us on the thought process to get to this line which I would guess most if not all us rocket scientists who post here find shocking.   

Don't forget that he also has Tufts having better odds to win the tourney than Williams.  That seems a bit surprising also.

[walzy31]

Roster information, gym information, vengeance, etc.
Also, I set lines on what my model expects the final score to be based on lots of variables. A real book in Las Vegas would make the spread on that game in the 1-3 range and expect equal action. I am trying to predict the outcome since I have no real exposure.

If Wohl is out, then in Lefrak Midd will pull away in the second half.

[nescac1]

Nice work on the "material action," Walzy, although as a federal law enforcement employee, I suggest you refrain from sharing that info on this board . 

If Wohl was playing at 100 percent, I think Williams-Midd is a pick 'em on a neutral court.  The question is, how many points is Wohl (presuming he won't play or will play little) worth?  Ten seems high on that front, but I understand the line.  And I like Williams coming in as an underdog, a little extra motivation.  Favoring Tufts over Williams to win the NESCAC title, though, that I can't buy into. 

My picks: Amherst and the under (I know the first game was super-high-scoring, but I can't resist that high of a line).  Williams and, after a struggle, the over. 

[grabtherim]

My guess on Walzys point spreads for next weekend with no over unders.  Amherst 7 over Tufts, and Williams/Midd at pick em. 

With all due respect to Walzy, I stand by this my thought from last week that Will/Midd is a pick'em game.  Once again hopefully not the same as asking a magician to give away the secrets to his tricks, what leads you to make this point spread ten points?  All that being said, I hope Walzy is right on the mark. 

[LarryBasketball33]

Ten seems high on that front, but I understand the line.  And I like Williams coming in as an underdog, a little extra motivation. 

Are players and/or coaches motivated by Walzy's point spreads?  One point game in Williams gym has to make this one about dead even on a neutral court even with Wohl out or limited.  Old #33 says this one will go down to the last possesion or OT.   

[walzy31]

Are players and/or coaches motivated by Walzy's point spreads?

No, but I have a decent track record. The spreads are very good and the totals are average.

[7express]

Saturday February 23, 2013 NESCAC Semi-Final Spreads

#4 Tufts @ #1 Amherst
Amherst -7.5
O/U: 168.5

#3 Williams Vs. #2 Middlebury (@ Amherst)
Middlebury -10.0
O/U: 130.5

Odds to Win 2013 NESCAC Championship
Amherst -110
Middlebury +150
Tufts +500
Williams +700

Amherst under
Williams over (10 points seems a bit too much, but what do I know??)
I'll take Amherst winning the tournament.

[lefrakenstein]

Roster information, gym information, vengeance, etc.
Also, I set lines on what my model expects the final score to be based on lots of variables. A real book in Las Vegas would make the spread on that game in the 1-3 range and expect equal action. I am trying to predict the outcome since I have no real exposure.

If Wohl is out, then in Lefrak Midd will pull away in the second half.

Do you actually have a 'model'? I've always assumed you just used the Massey predictions and made adjustments based on your superior knowledge of NESCAC developments. The correlation between your spreads and totals and the Massey's site's spreads and totals is often quite high. I know that Massey doesn't have predictions for the playoffs, but you could just use the late-season predictions as a guide. Not that that would take anything away from the impressiveness of your track record.


I'll take Williams/over and Tufts/under.

And at +700, if I didn't hate Williams basketball and if betting were legal, I would definitely be willing to place a 'material' wager on the Ephs.

[LarryBasketball33]

Are players and/or coaches motivated by Walzy's point spreads?

No, but I have a decent track record. The spreads are very good and the totals are average.

No one respects your track record more than me. It's better than decent.  Over the years, you have had an amazing grasp of this league.  Although I hope you are right, I just think you might be wrong on this one.  My comment was in fact not to you, but to nescac1 who claimed underdog motivation from your point spread.  Hey in the scheme of things, as always the guys dribbling, shooting, defending etc will let us know.  Look forward to it.   

[walzy31]

Do you actually have a 'model'? I've always assumed you just used the Massey predictions and made adjustments based on your superior knowledge of NESCAC developments. The correlation between your spreads and totals and the Massey's site's spreads and totals is often quite high. I know that Massey doesn't have predictions for the playoffs, but you could just use the late-season predictions as a guide. Not that that would take anything away from the impressiveness of your track record.


I'll take Williams/over and Tufts/under.

And at +700, if I didn't hate Williams basketball and if betting were legal, I would definitely be willing to place a 'material' wager on the Ephs.

Thanks LarryBasketball33


Lefrakenstein,
I looked at the Massey projections for about three weeks in a row a few years ago. This maybe affected 15 lines total (5 per day). My systems do not take the Massey ratings into account.

I would happily take the other side of your Williams +700 (the line jumped to 700 from 600 when no one was willing to bet the Ephs at 6:1).

If Wohl starts (even if he isn't 100%), then it changes the line for the Middlebury game and the futures.

[nescac1]

Interview with Mike Crotty, Williams '04 on Hoopsville:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG2dcupKKnc