MBB: NESCAC

[toad22]

Nate Robertson is certainly the only NESCAC player who made an All NCAA Final Four Team and never made an All NESCAC team. He is the most important player on the Williams team, and has been so for at least three years. This is not to say the best player. I mean the most important player.

[nescac1]

Agreed 100 percent regarding your comments on Robertson, Toad, but if memory serves Tim McLaughlin also made an all-Final-Four team but not an all-NESCAC team.  Same kind of player, whose intangible value was not captured by statistics ...

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Sedale Jones played against Amherst, Williams, WPI and MIT early in the season.  He scored 41, 34, 22 and 10.  MIT was the statistical anomaly.  Jones on took 10 shots in 34 minutes.  While he had 34 free throws in the other games, he only took 4 against MIT.
Jones averaged almost 8 free throws a game for the season and had 95 turnovers in 28 games.  He takes the ball to the rack.  A bunch. 
In his 41 point explosion against Amherst, his team lost by 21 and he had 4 of Curry's 17 turnovers.
Walzy's o/u looks about right.  Hoops Fan's assessment looks right, too. 
However, I'll take the under because if he gets frustrated, it doesn't matter how many shots you take if they ain't fallin', and Middlebury will be in his face every moment.
I'd guess that he'll get around half of his point from the free throw line.  (that could be a lot.)
Sedale Jones is a dominant player, a superior offensive talent to any Panther.  That's why he played D1 ball at UMass before transferring. 
Curry's style is prone to turnovers and his supporting cast is unlikely to stay with Middlebury for 40 minutes.

Middhoops,

The thing to consider when discussing Nolan's defense on Sedale Jones this Saturday is how rarely the guy Nolan is guarding gets to the free throw line. Here are the notable players whom Nolan has guarded over the course of the season, with the FTs they shot in games against Middlebury and the number of fouls Nolan himself committed.

Ferris FTs - 0, Nolan fouls - 0
Vadas - 3, Nolan - 2
Brown - 4 (2 intentional), Nolan - 2, 1 intentional
Epley - 2, Nolan - 2
Ryan Martin - 0, Nolan - 1
Toomey/Workman - 5, (1 intentional), Nolan - 1, also intentional
Brown - 4, Nolan - 1
Epley - 0, Nolan - 2

UPDATE: Those 7 guys, averaging Toomey and Workman together, and counting Epley and Shasha Brown twice, averaged to shoot a combined 35.3 FTs per game. Nolan held them to 16.

This list is a veritable who's-who of elite scorers in the NESCAC as well as Ryan Martin, himself a D1 transfer, though obviously of a different build than Sedale Jones. These 7 guys combined to shoot 19 FTs in 8 games against Nolan, 3 of which were the result of intentional fouls. So on average, controlling for late game foul situations, Nolan allowed an average of 2 FTs a game against some of the best offensive players in the country. The lack of free throws shot by his assignments, coupled with Nolan's 11 total fouls (9 when controlling for intentional fouls) shows that not only is he stopping penetration, but he is doing so without fouling, keeping himself in the game and his team out of the penalty.

Sedale Jones will provide a new challenge for Nolan, but his preparation, attention to detail and work ethic are unrivaled. He is a remarkable defender. If he draws Jones, as the line assumes, I don't think Jones will score more than half of his points from the line, unless he is held to single digits. Given his season average of 8 FTs per game, I would set the line for Sedale Jones FTs at 4.5 and think the under on 20.5 points is a safe bet.

Yeah, that's sort of the rub.  It wouldn't surprise me if Jones scored 30 and it wouldn't surprise me if he scored 11.  The big difference between this year and last year for Curry is that they can still win when he doesn't score.

[toad22]

Thanks, nescac1, I had forgotten about Tim McLaughlin, a really classy player.

[amh63]

For those interested, there is a nice write-up of Amherst's winners on the Amherst website....along with video highlights (both men and women games) of the championship finals.  In the writeup, it is pointed out that Toomey's pick as POY is the first Amherst selection since Andrew Olsen in '08.  Andrew Olsen also won it in his junior year...like Aaron...in '07.  Of greater interest to me is the fact that Coach Hixon's last COY win was way back in '05.  He did not win it in '07 (the year that Williams won the conference title) or in '08...two years when he took Amherst to the NCAA finals in the post-season.  I believe in '07, he was selected National COY.   Since Coach Hixon's last selection, in 'o5, how many NEW coaches are there in the conference?  Since '05, there are new coaches at Bates, Wesleyan, Trinity, Williams, Hamilton (Hamilton has been in the BB league only this year but it's coach votes).  I also believe there has been a new coach at Conn.  Anywhere else?  In any case, new blood enters and possible old animosities gone?...if there were really any to begin with.
I went back to check on Tufts and Middlebury....how dumb can I be...25 years and 16 years respectively.  For the Panthers, their rise in the "CAC" has been, to me, only since '05 it seems.  I know, I'm trying to cover my ignorance here.  Forgot Colby's young coach.  Please note that these mods to my post are to correct errors!

[magicman]

Magicman.....Thanks for the heads up....good advice.  The Amherst women's team has a 7PM game at home...against a team that they blew out on the road.  Though both teams are better now.....it should be "over" early.  Can check in on the game while watching your suggested game.  Are you not from upper NY and follow the "hometown" state school?  If so, any low down on the host team....keys to the game advice.
Seems all the bets are down on the game in VT! 
Pat C.   .....it is not good to tempt this "betting crowd" on this board....to challenge their minds/habits.  By the way, what is the prize if one wins?  All paid trip to Salem?

amh63,

Yes you are correct, I live just outside of Plattsburgh and own a business in the city. Plattsburgh State is my home team and I'm quite close to the program so I'll fill you in about the team. This years' team has rebounded from an 8-18 mark of a year ago to finish with a 19-8 record and came in 2nd place in the SUNYAC conference with a 12-4 record. We lost the tournament championship to Cortland State on their court but we did manage to beat them once during the regular season 80-77 when they came to Plattsburgh. Cortland State, by the way could very well be Middlebury's 2nd round opponent and will give the Panthers all they can handle. But that's for another post maybe down the road.

Plattsburgh is a very athletic team that loves an up tempo game but has also had success against teams that don't want to get into a track meet with them. They played Middlebury early in the season when the lineup still was in the experimental stages and the Panthers won that game 80-73 but Plattsburgh was ahead at the half 29-24 and was only down 74-71 with 38 seconds left in the game. Nolan Thompson hit a jumper on the Panther's next possession and Plattsburgh came down, missed a 3 pointer, got the offensive rebound but turned it over and Wolfin coasted in for a layup to put the game on ice. Plattsburgh has improved since that effort but recently lost one of their best players, John Perez, our leading rebounder and 2nd leading scorer to a broken leg that he suffered in a game on Feb. 12th. Plattsburgh has a deep rotation though and despite losing Perez they managed to defeat the 1st, 3rd, and 4th place  teams in the conference without him. Seven different players have led the Cardinals in scoring this year and 8 different players have been the leading rebounder in a game. 10 players average double digit minutes but that has now been reduced to 9 with the loss of Perez. We do have several good freshman whose playing time will probably increase and one of our big men, 6'6" jr. Reggie Williams, who took over for Perez in the starting lineup, has averaged 10 points and 7.2 rpg since Perez went down. The point guard for the Cardinals, 6'0" Chris Manning, is one of the quickest players in the nation and leads all of Division 3 with 104 steals for an average of 3.85 spg. He also is ranked #13 in the country in assists with 161 for a 6.0 apg average. Shooting guard 6'2" Shamoy McIntosh leads the team in scoring with 12.2 ppg and can hurt you from long range or by getting to the rim. 6'2" Jordan Moody another of Plattsburgh's guards is similar in style to McIntosh but is probably the team's best defender and usually draws the toughest defensive assignment. Jordan has got a great first step and can really get to the rim for some great throwdowns. Ezra Hodgson is a 6'5" forward that can hurt you inside or step back and bury the trifecta. He has 33 3 pointers on the year. Coming off the bench are another pair of 3 point specialists. 6'4" Kalik Parker scored 17 consecutive points last week in the SUNYAC semifinal when he hit 6 straight shots (5 threes and a deuce) He leads the team with 48 3 pointers and only averages 15 minutes per game. Ed Correa is a 6'1" freshman with a good 3 point shot as well and has made 31 triples for the season. 6'6" Shavar Fields and 6'4" Gary Tibbs provide quality minutes to back up the starting bigs and Fields is capable of putting 20 points up at any time as he was the leading scorer on the team last year. Mike Mitchell is the backup point guard that usually gives Manning a breather but sometimes they are both on the court together. They are both exceptional passers and most of their assists come from great looks rather than a cheap kick out to a three point shooter. The team will play man to man most of the time but has on occasion went to several different zone defenses depending on the opponent. I think that the Cardinals will prevail in the game over Husson but I expect it will be a tough game. The two teams have only met once before and that was in November of 2009 when Plattsburgh won a nailbiter, 72-70 over the Eagles. I expect Plattsburgh to come out of the gate flying and will try to apply considerable pressure against Husson as they try and get the ball into their frontcourt. I look for Manning to be a disruptive force that can quickly result in some turnovers and fast break points. Plattsburgh doesn't always play well once they gain the lead as they think they can do whatever they want and end up with some ill advised shots much too quick into the possession. They have been getting better at maintaining a lead though after learning some valuable lesssons in late January and early February. This entire team will return next year as they lose no one to graduation. The Lord Jeffs will have a distinct height advantage over the Cardinals and of course we'll have to buck the home court fans but I think Plattsburgh will be quicker and if they can knock down their shots and especially shoot well from behind the arc I expect them to give Amherst a good game. That's assuming we get by Husson and I never like to assume anything when it comes to hoops until the final score is posted.

Hope I gave you enough to chew on amh63. I know you like to have some idea of how the game might play out and I believe I've provided you with a fair assessement of my Cardinals. Now about that Middlebury-Cortland State matchup that could take place in 2 weeks....                    

[amh63]

Again Magicman....Thank you for your very early info post.   Yes indeed, something to chew on for my morning drive to work.  I'm sure that your home town will be visited by some coaches from Amherst soon.  It is a little ironic to me that your team is a possible opponent for Amherst in the post-season...in that Middlebury was given some "ragging" about their SOS in discussions earlier on "Big Dance" selections on this board.  I believe that your team was mentioned as a weak opponent somewhere.  In any case, that is irrelevant history now.  Like you, I consider any NCAA post-season team dangerous.  Quick teams with NY players are always tough.
I'm sure of two things...when the time comes....first, that you will be watching the game in LeFrak when Amherst plays Plattsburgh..whether online or live.  Second, that you will be asked for info on Cortland State by Panther posters.   Me too in that I'm know a little about Cortland State.  My daughter lives near-by and I, with my wife plan to baby-sit our granddaughter in April up in "their woods".  The locals refer to Cortland State as a "jock" school, much as the locals in my days referred to Springfield College as a "jock" school.  Fine schools both that graduate PE majors as well as PT majors.   Off track again....but thank you agin for the honest and scary data.

[magicman]

amh63,

If everyone on the boards were as polite and gracious as you  it would be a much better experience. Plus k to you for being that way.

[NYHOOPS8]

Amherst will be going through the gauntlet of some dangerous East Region schools in order to get to a quarterfinal berth. Plattsburgh (assuming they get by Husson) will be a very tough out. The time off and the rust factor will make it a difficult game to play. Plattsburgh is not a team Amherst should take lightly. A possible Sweet 16 matchup with Stevens (a team who already beat Williams on their home floor) could be on the horizon as well.

[nescac1]

I am sure that Amherst will take no tournament game lightly.  That being said, NYHoops8, who was the last East Region team (other than Rochester) to make a Final Four?  Hasn't it been decades?  None of the East region teams, again outside of Rochester, are likely to break that streak this year.  I still think Amherst cruises to the Elite 8, but there they will likely face a very difficult opponent. 

[middhoops]

I'm sure you remember that Midd was in Salem in '11 where they lost to St. Thomas while Williams lost to Wooster (I think). 

[NYHOOPS8]

I am sure that Amherst will take no tournament game lightly.  That being said, NYHoops8, who was the last East Region team (other than Rochester) to make a Final Four?  Hasn't it been decades?  None of the East region teams, again outside of Rochester, are likely to break that streak this year.  I still think Amherst cruises to the Elite 8, but there they will likely face a very difficult opponent. 

Not looking to compare history or regions, for that matter. I just believe Amherst's road to the Elite 8 will be more difficult than it seems.

[nescac1]

middhoops, was that a response to me?  None of those four are East region teams.  Salem has been mostly dominated by Midwest, West, South, Great Lakes, and Northeast region teams over the past 15 years or so, with an exception every now and again from East, Atlantic, Mid-Atlantic, (none of whom, other than Rochester, tend to do particularly well when they make it to Salem). 

[middhoops]

You're right.  I didn't read specifically enough.  I was only thinking of 'east' in a broader geographic context.   That, and I'm still not quite over the St. Thomas loss after Midd hate a ten point lead late in the game.

[Vandy74]

Middlebury has been playing Plattsburgh for a number of years and certainly would advise other teams not to overlook the Cardinals.  Magicman's assessment of this year's squad certainly gives Amherst fair warning.  Plattsburgh's excellent coach Tom Curle also deserves mention.  Panther fans still remember the two teams' '07-'08 game at Middlebury.  Plattsburgh came in 14th ranked at 18-2 while Midd stood at 15-5.  The home team was red-hot from the beginning and held a 25-6 lead with 9:42 left in the first half.  The Cardinals called a timeout.  For as long as the referees would allow Curle gave his team a dressing down that probably could be heard well beyond the confines of the gymnasium.  I expect his constructive critique continued during the intermission.  Leading 38-21 the Panthers quickly extended their lead to 22 points early in the second half.  Then Plattsburgh remembered why they were there.  Shooting 71% from the field they outscored Middlebury 57-36 in the final 20 minutes winning 78-74.  Each season since then the Panthers have made that team's 19-8 record look paltry by comparison and they have not lost to Plattsburgh since.  With the exception of last season's contest against a rare weak Cardinal squad, however, Middlebury has never beaten them by more than 7 points.