MBB: NESCAC

[madzillagd]

Houston GM Morey is a huge stats believer and probably employs the most resources in the NBA in this area; Sac's GM Petrie is on the opposite end of the spectrum and didn't even bother to send a representative to the conference until last year from all reports and still does not employ anyone on his staff that anyone knows of to utilize advanced stats.  The running joke around Sacramento pertains to the fact that these two GMs, on opposite ends of the spectrum on this issue, are constantly doing trades together.  Houston & Sacramento have been exchanging players annually it seems for the past 4 or 5 years.   Funny how two guys using two different sets of criteria keep arriving at the same types of players over an over.  Take that for what it's worth.

As for the use of data in general, I'm sure there will be much more practical uses of this data in a very short amount of time.  It's funny to me how people tend to draw a line in the sand when it comes to data and it's usage.  There are no guarantees of results based on past performance, but it does give you a great indicator of future results.  I don't see how this data would be any different than what coaches use today.  You don't guard Nate Robertson from 3 because he shoots 16%.  That doesn't mean he can't make one, but you don't mind him shooting 3 or 4 and taking your chances.  Aren't the best point guards (and players in general) the guys that make the right decisions, often based on data, in their head on the fly?  If Toomey is on the fast break and he has 2 equally open options for 3s, do you think he passes to Williamson or Workman?  He's going to pass it to Workman because he knows he's a better shooter - and that's based on his knowledge of the statistics.  Giving him access to even more statistics is just going to allow him to make better decisions.  Now we are all well aware that some players (and coaches) will never be able to benefit from this information.  They lack the ability to either comprehend it or make decisions on the fly, etc. but I suspect those players will get weeded out as a result of this information over time. 

An interesting debate for the future is whether college basketball programs would share this type of information with the NBA.  Would you allow the NBA scouts access to your raw data and analysis knowing it could potentially harm your players in terms of the draft?  My guess is they would not give it up but there could be a backlash by the NBA teams to tend to not draft players from programs that didn't give it up.

[7express]

Is Walzy going to have spreads for the Williams/Wesley or Mid Curry games tomorrow??

[lefrakenstein]

http://d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2013/tournament-preview

Pat Coleman picks Amherst to win national championship.

Pat,

Is this just a massive jinx attempt?

[John Gleich]

http://d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2013/tournament-preview

Pat Coleman picks Amherst to win national championship.

Pat,

I have no problem with this pick.  Amherst impresses the bijesus out of me but  I do believe that given the opportunity Middlebury can beat them

That's the beauty of the tournament. Last I checked, there were no undefeated teams (not sure if any teams have become undefeated since I last checked...     )

There's so much parity in college basketball, even the most impressive team can get knocked off by just about anybody.

Pat has an unenvious job... that he's picking a winner (AND telling everybody who it is, and why he thinks what he thinks).  The fact of the matter is that there are any number of about 10 or 15 schools for whom, legitimately, it wouldn't be a surprise if they won the whole thing.

[madzillagd]

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/The-hidden-foundation-of-field-vision-in-English-Premier-LeagueEPL-soccer-players.pdf

Here's white paper from the conference going on this weekend.  The short version - they studied the 'field of vision' for top soccer players to determine the impact to their success rate when passing the ball.  Basically, the better players scan the field more often prior to receiving the ball and as a result their success rate in completing their next pass was close to 80% whereas the players that did not scan the field as frequently prior to receiving the ball were closer to 50%.  (The paper gets into what the data doesn't tell you etc.)

I could see that type of analysis being done in basketball on both sides of the ball.  Obviously you could do passing just as they did in soccer.  Another great application I would think would be on defense and the players ability to get around screens, help on defense, closing out on shooters, etc.   All situations where you would assume having a better field of vision is going to lead to improvement of performance.  Be interesting to see the stats behind how many shots the higher frequency players were able to prevent from being taken because they reacted faster to the ball.

[John Gleich]

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/The-hidden-foundation-of-field-vision-in-English-Premier-LeagueEPL-soccer-players.pdf

Here's white paper from the conference going on this weekend.  The short version - they studied the 'field of vision' for top soccer players to determine the impact to their success rate when passing the ball.  Basically, the better players scan the field more often prior to receiving the ball and as a result their success rate in completing their next pass was close to 80% whereas the players that did not scan the field as frequently prior to receiving the ball were closer to 50%.  (The paper gets into what the data doesn't tell you etc.)

I could see that type of analysis being done in basketball on both sides of the ball.  Obviously you could do passing just as they did in soccer.  Another great application I would think would be on defense and the players ability to get around screens, help on defense, closing out on shooters, etc.   All situations where you would assume having a better field of vision is going to lead to improvement of performance.  Be interesting to see the stats behind how many shots the higher frequency players were able to prevent from being taken because they reacted faster to the ball.

... So... Nature vs. Nurture... are some poeple just naturally better "scanners" than others, or is that a skill that could be taught?

[amh63]

I'm getting the picture that you find the studies/conference most interesting  Madz!  Good for you....may look into getting the conference results myself.  Remember in the dark ages of my time at MIT, I actually took several required courses at the Sloan School.  One lecturer at the time was discussing "decision analysis" methods...a logical analytical way to make critical decision during production.  He spoke of his time looking into... the production methods at Electric Boat in Groton Ct....builders of nuclear subs.  Comparing their methods worked out over time to his analytical methods.
After months in the shipyard. his conclusion was that the shipyard methods proved as good or better than his professed methods.  My take....Good point guards have talent and are good at making decisions on the fly and have learned to scan the field.  Same on the defensive side.  Experience and understanding what to do....smarts or talent?  Whatever.  Easier to recruit them or teach them?

[old_hooper]

Saw the picks and in agreement pretty much with the exception to Springfield and Ohio Wesleyan.  I do believe Middlebury has a great shot to make it to Salem this year.  Rochester has really had a difficult last few weeks and certainly not playing at the level they were.  They haven't just lost but were blown out in two of the three losses and another one to Case Western .500 team overall and 5-9 in a down UAA league this year.  Not what you want to see happen this time of year.  Springfield in the second round could definitely surprise Rochester if that game materializes.  I think Charlie Brock (Springfield coach) is one of the better ones out there.  This is one of his better teams in years.  6 of the 8 losses were to teams with 20 or more wins.  There conference was arguably one of the better ones in the Northeast this year.  They are a capable team to get to Salem and would have to play flawless game in Middlebury.  If that were to happen I don't think that there is team out there that knows better about NCAA tournament surprises than Middlebury.  Scranton pulled the monster upset last year on the Panthers home court.  You can still sense the pain from Panther fans.  If the game is played in Middlebury I think that the Panthers will prevail.  Because of the tournament format this year, teams will have plenty of time to prepare for their opponents and gamesmanship will come into play so there will be upsets by experienced senior dominated teams.  Should a good team like Springfield get on a roll anything can happen.

[walzy31]

Is Walzy going to have spreads for the Williams/Wesley or Mid Curry games tomorrow??

I am not planning on capping any of the tourney.

SSAC Day 1 was awesome! Cool to see some of you all passing around the topics from the conference. Amh63, we don't get school credit or money for organizing, but we get an unforgettable experience full of access to the best in the biz.

Toomey might pass that ball to Workman to shoot...or he might throw it up throw it up to Williamson for the highlight reel.

[Panthernation]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=sqJa9toUl44

New podcast:
Middlebury in the NCAA Tournament 2:00
NESCAC tournament recap 13:55
NESCAC Awards recap/critique 25:00
Region-by-region bracket breakdown 45:40

[frank uible]

Nature over Nurture. Recruiting over Teaching. Calipari over Carril.

[Vandy74]

Just to set the record straight I was having fun with Pat.  I'm not upset with him.  Well, perhaps I am mildly irked, but that's the full extent of it.      I also don't assume Middlebury will waltz their way into the Sweet Sixteen.  I was in the stands for the Scranton game.  Two years earlier I was among a crowd of Panther rooters delighted to see RIC beat Rutgers-Newark who we all believed would pose a more difficult match up for Middlebury the following evening.  A bunch of guys wearing RIC uniforms showed up for the next game and won it easily 75-59.  Hey, I grew up watching those Panther squads Old Guy played on.  I never take victory for granted.

[nescac1]

Another Wesleyan recruit, Joseph Kuo, a 6'9 big guy:

http://www.newenglandrecruitingreport.com/news/article/2990/D3-Commitment-Catch-Up.php

Future Eph Duncan Robinson should have a fun rivalry with Wesleyan over the next four years, as three of his former teammates (Reid and Rafferty from Exeter, and Kuo from Governor's Academy) will be joining the Cards.  Seems like Wesleyan has a badly-needed strong influx of talent coming in. 

[jayhawk]

D3 hoops in NY Times, quotes from Hixon,Crotty, Make and Mehan of Brandeis

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/02/sports/ncaabasketball/ncaa-division-iii-basketball-tournament-will-be-lengthy.html?ref=sports

[nescac1]

Interesting NY Times article.  I think the two weeks is definitely an advantage for Amherst.  Toomey seems to get really worn down / beaten up by this point every year, he definitely was not as his best in the NESCAC championship weekend, so he will be totally fresh heading into the postseason which should be scary for opponents, and Workman will be back to 100 percent as well.  Williamson emerged as a third go-to threat with those two hurting.  If Amherst was facing a top-15 team in the Round of 32 the layoff and ensuing rust might be cause for concern, but that is not in the cards. 

I also think the schedule is helpful for Williams.  Wohl should finally be back to 100 percent, and playing one game per week helps when the team is so reliant on five guys to each play 35-39 minutes per game.  I also like Maker getting a full week to prep for each opponent.  His offensive game plan vs. Midd was masterful, even if Midd basically figured out the Ephs' zone on the other end. 

Here is a preview for tonight's game: http://www.berkshireeagle.com/sports/ci_22702274/ephs-mens-basketball-tips-off-ncaas

Not sure how Williams will deal with Wesley's star power forward as no one on the team really has that kind of physical dimensions to hang with him, I imagine it will take a team defensive effort and we may see quite a bit of zone.  If Wesley is a team that employes, as it sounds, a lot of ball pressure, look for the Ephs to do what they did to Midd with a lot of back-cutting.