MBB: NESCAC

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Dave,

I have no problem with your "on paper" point about Middlebury, and I think I would probably agree. However, I think in your haste to defend your position you've vastly simplified Middlebury's last two tournament wins and how Middlebury plays as a team.

I have a couple of problems with how you've characterized the team and their tournament success thus far...

First, I have no idea how you think Ithaca "gift-wrapped" the end of that game, unless we were watching entirely different games. Are you talking about one play at the end of the game in which a player made a mistake in a high-pressure situation? Because players do that all the time and it's hardly gift-wrapping. Further, if Oztemel hadn't been there, Kizel would have continued to the hoop and probably scored.

The way I saw it... Ithaca shouldn't have been pressuring the ball, they should have stood their ground, and Kizel was practically falling over when he got fouled. Ithaca was flat-footed and seemingly desperate, almost like they forgot they had to play defense. They take the lead and basically gave Middlebury the victory - that is gift wrapped. I am not saying Kizel didn't earn the trip to the line and I am not saying Middlebury didn't earn the win - it just was easier than you would expect with six seconds left to go and 94 feet to travel with no timeouts.

Which gets me to my second point ... have you seen Joey Kizel play in big games? He is exactly the kind of player who takes over games, which, coincidentally, gets to the Cortland State game. Kizel (22 points, 7-12 shooting) was superlative in that game, and has been over the past month (and really all season). I have never seen a player with better command of "the moment" than Joey Kizel.

Getting to the Cortland State game, yes Middlebury "had to really dig deep" to beat Cortland State. They were playing against a team that was 13-0 at home and had won 12 of those games by 10 or more points! The Massey Index game Middlebury a 21% chance to win the game. Typically you have to dig really deep, regardless of how good you are, to beat that kind of team. I don't see how that can possibly be seen as a critique of this team in any way but positive.

I am not being negative about it... they had to go deep to pull that out coming from behind against a really good team. But I am also saying they haven't been world-beaters... so as much as Middlebury has beaten good teams, they have also had to go deep and sometimes that wears out the tanks. Nothing against them by any stretch of the imagination.

And finally, when you say that Middlebury has "a bunch of team players" you insult their basketball capabilities, particularly so when you suggest that they can't take over games. Let's look at how Peter Lynch, Nolan Thompson, Jake Wolfin and Joey Kizel have all taken over "big games" against their best opponents so far this season.

Jan. 26 @Williams (64-63 L) — Peter Lynch: 16 points in 16 minutes on 7-9 shooting (foul trouble).
Feb. 12 Amherst (104-101 3OT L) — Joey Kizel: 30 points, 8-17 FG, 5-10 3PT, 9-10 FT, Jake Wolfin: 16 points, scored 10 STRAIGHT points for Middlebury in the first OT alone
Feb. 23 Williams (87-80 OT L) — Peter Lynch: 23 points, 12 rebounds, 10-17 FG
March 9 @Cortland State (67-63 W) — Joey Kizel: 22 points, 7-12 shooting
March 16 Ithaca (73-72 W) — Jake Wolfin: 20 points, 7-13 shooting,  6-10 from three, Nolan Thompson: 20 points, 6-12 shooting, 6-10 from three

Actually, I am complimenting them about being team players. They have lots of guys who contribute and that makes them dangerous. However, they also don't have a key guy or two that can just step-up and take over causing problems for the opposing team. Take Ramapo for example, they had a lot of a good players but one dangerous won in Will Sanborn. If he decided to take over a game, he would be unstoppable and easily capable of taking a team on his back to a victory. The problem I saw this year... he never did that especially in big games. Middlebury has some very good players, but Sharry would sometimes put them on his back in years past and I worry that if they don't have a catalyst like that they are vulnerable.

I have said that teams who are deep and have several weapons are always the ones you consider for a national title and a deep run in the tournament, but I still think they need at least one player who can really step up and take over.

Now like I said, there are certainly reasons to pick North Central to win this game. But alleging that Middlebury doesn't have players who can take over a game is not one of them, and will be the reason you miscalculate this game if you pick North Central to coast, or win by any kind of substantial margin. Don't forget that this group of Middlebury seniors hasn't lost a game in three years that hasn't come down to the final possession of regulation.

I in no way said NCC was going to coast. I don't expect any team to coast at this point. I didn't expect Amherst to coast last weekend. I am saying that NCC's physical nature and the fact they have three players who can turn on the gas at any point makes them my choice to win. I am also not saying Middlebury doesn't have players (as stated before), I just don't think the match-ups go in their favor. Remember, I didn't think the Scranton match-ups went in their favor with Middlebury last year and we saw how that worked out. I haven't thought ANY of the match-ups for Cabrini this year have been in their favor and yet they have beaten three very good teams to get back to Salem.

And while I completely understand your point about games going down to the final possession (a bit of a stretch, but I know what you are saying - you don't need to continue to argue that ), I also think that may cost them soon. They haven't been able to put a team down and as much as that proves they can gut out a win or fight to get back into it and win... it also indicates to me that at some point something will run out.

Another major factor, can Middlebury do that in back-to-back games against some of the toughest competition they have seen all year? Should they beat NCC they play either Cabrini or Amherst the next night having already used a lot of what is in the tank if they are fighting to the last possession against NCC. That is a liability I think in Salem.

[Pat Coleman]

One other thing on that point, madzillagd: We entered the D3hoops.com Top 25 and the NCAA's seedings (based on the selection sunday regional rankings, the ones nobody was allowed to publish) into the d3photography.com bracket challenge.

The D3hoops.com Top 25 is tied for 7th overall.
The NCAA is tied for 169th overall.

The poll's success goes pretty deep in this bracket. Not perfect, to be sure, and not as good as the lead prognosticator in the challenge, but pretty deep nonetheless.

[Panthernation]

The way I saw it... Ithaca shouldn't have been pressuring the ball, they should have stood their ground, and Kizel was practically falling over when he got fouled. Ithaca was flat-footed and seemingly desperate, almost like they forgot they had to play defense. They take the lead and basically gave Middlebury the victory - that is gift wrapped. I am not saying Kizel didn't earn the trip to the line and I am not saying Middlebury didn't earn the win - it just was easier than you would expect with six seconds left to go and 94 feet to travel with no timeouts.

Actually, I am complimenting them about being team players. They have lots of guys who contribute and that makes them dangerous. However, they also don't have a key guy or two that can just step-up and take over causing problems for the opposing team. Take Ramapo for example, they had a lot of a good players but one dangerous won in Will Sanborn. If he decided to take over a game, he would be unstoppable and easily capable of taking a team on his back to a victory. The problem I saw this year... he never did that especially in big games. Middlebury has some very good players, but Sharry would sometimes put them on his back in years past and I worry that if they don't have a catalyst like that they are vulnerable.

I have said that teams who are deep and have several weapons are always the ones you consider for a national title and a deep run in the tournament, but I still think they need at least one player who can really step up and take over.

Another major factor, can Middlebury do that in back-to-back games against some of the toughest competition they have seen all year? Should they beat NCC they play either Cabrini or Amherst the next night having already used a lot of what is in the tank if they are fighting to the last possession against NCC. That is a liability I think in Salem.

Dave,

Thank you for replying in full to our post. Your logic/memory on the final play of the Ithaca game does not hold up, however. Crazy things happen at the end of basketball games. As Middlebury fans, we certainly know that. The pressure of the moment often causes teams and players to make mistakes, while others make plays. Did Middlebury gift-wrap Amherst a win earlier this year because players weren't ready when Willy Workman shot his free throw, giving him a lane to the basket? Of course not. It was a great play. Similarly, when Joey Kizel tied the game at Scranton last year because nobody came over and helped, was he gift-wrapped the basket? Not in the slightest. The same is true for Saturday's case. Of course Ithaca could have defended the play more effectively than they did, but the fact that two defenders missed Kizel on his way up the floor doesn't mean that they gift-wrapped him the basket, or Middlebury the win.

Also, Kizel wasn't falling as he got fouled. He lost his balance splitting two defenders and then regained his balance and took a dribble before Oztemel fouled him. Here is video evidence: http://www.wcax.com/story/21661862/middlebury-headed-to-elite-eight

And finally, you're still missing my point about Kizel and this senior class. Over the past two seasons Kizel has been the answer for Middlebury in big games. Even when Ryan Sharry was on the team, it was Kizel who was making the biggest plays in the biggest games. I can give you countless examples, if you'd like, but trust me on this, Kizel has been Middlebury's closer and big-game player for the past two seasons. He is as apt as any player in the country to take over a game. Wolfin, Lynch and Thompson, meanwhile, have also had stretches where they've been unstoppable. And as that's your criteria for someone taking over a game, all three of those guys are capable of doing so.

Again, I agree with you that this is a bad matchup for Middlebury, no question there. But you're allowing your own personal narrative of how this team plays and how certain players contribute to affect how you perceive what they actually do. Kizel in big games is like "National TV Rajon Rondo" to steal a Bill Simmons phrase. Wolfin, Thompson and Lynch, meanwhile, are all capable of taking over a game, and Jensen has shown that he can be a dominant player on both ends of the floor for stretches as well. Middlebury may not win a national championship, but it isn't because they don't have players who can raise their game to another level when necessary.

[Panthernation]

Two more things:

1) Name all the big games where Ryan Sharry put the team on his back last year. Then name all the big games where Kizel didn't. Here is a link to the schedule/results: http://www.middlebury.edu/athletics/sports/mensbasketball/archive/2011-2012/schedule.

2) The fact that it will be hard for Middlebury to win two games this weekend because they play close games would be a compelling argument if this wasn't the national quarterfinal and final. Anybody team would take a 3OT win Friday if that's what it takes.

Update: To avoid contention/confusion, we're not dismissing Ryan's play in anyway last year, rather showing that even when Kizel wasn't the best player on his team, he was still the primary player who carried his team in the biggest games/moments.

[amh63]

The Hoopsville host should have learned to say something that can get the dander up on this board.....on a slow Monday when the next game is on Friday.  Good thing many of the posters will be heading to Salem at the end of the week.
Do have a conference BB question that has interested me for awhile that needs inputs from smart people (notice the tease here ).  Team uniforms in general and shoes in particular.  It started with me about 5 years ago when the "recession" losses hit Amherst.....about 400 plus millions loss in the endowment...with cuts across the board, etc.....including the athletic department.  The AD at Amherst had to adjust in planned uniform purchases, etc.  Now to the present time.  I have noticed that during the contests of both the men's and women's team, the particular brand of the players' shoes varied...sometimes the color.  The FY players tend to be more uniform than the upperclass players.  Not familiar with all the nuiances with the high end BB shoes....being a Chuck Taylor man myself.....for playing (not dress shoes here).....it seems that Amherst starters have their preferred brand/type, etc. and are allowed to wear them.  Basic question.  Does the players have a shoe allowance and they go pick their brand over a brand that is provided them.  Expect any answer here may vary with the schools in the conference.
More of a personal/social interest related to possible future funding.  I know I could go ask the AD and will do so at a later time.  Just gathering data from other schools for now.

[jumpshot]

As simply an observer of the recent "dialogues" ----

What are the root causes of Dave's (and others?) clearly apparent irritation with the NESCAC schools with the most success with men's basketball during the past several years (Williams, Amherst, Middlebury)?

Couldn't possibly be confined to tournament draws, unsatisfactory web casts, etc. ....

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Huh... didn't know I had any irritation with NESCAC schools... but if you only read what I don't agree with and you only read the NESCAC boards... I am sure you could get your 2's to add up. I am rather complimentary of the NESCAC and must think highly of them if I have them so high in my Top 25 and continue to have guests on from that conference more times than I probably should - but when teams are playing well you continue to have those guests on especially late in the year.

[Panthernation]

Two more things:

1) Name all the big games where Ryan Sharry put the team on his back last year. Then name all the big games where Kizel didn't. Here is a link to the schedule/results: http://www.middlebury.edu/athletics/sports/mensbasketball/archive/2011-2012/schedule.

2) The fact that it will be hard for Middlebury to win two games this weekend because they play close games would be a compelling argument if this wasn't the national quarterfinal and final. Anybody team would take a 3OT win Friday if that's what it takes.

Update: To avoid contention/confusion, we're not dismissing Ryan's play in anyway last year, rather showing that even when Kizel wasn't the best player on his team, he was still the primary player who carried his team in the biggest games/moments.

We'll do the second part of "1" just in case you weren't going to respond. Middlebury played eight tight games (decided by a possession) last year. Here are Kizel's lines:

20 pts, 6-11 FG, 2-4 3FG, 6-6 FT
16 pts, 5-8 FG, 2-4 3FG, 4-4 FT
15 pts, 5-10 FG, 1-3 3FG, 4-6 FT
24 pts, 7-11 FG, 4-4 3FG, 6-6 FT
26 pts, 8-13 FG, 3-6 3FG, 7-8 FT
18 pts, 6-11 FG, 2-4 3FG, 4-5 FT
21 pts, 7-10 FG, 3-6 3FG, 4-5 FT
21 pts, 8-14 FG, 2-6 3FG, 3-3 FT

For a 2011-12 tight-game average of: 20.1 ppg, 59% FG, 51% 3FG, 88% FT

This season in tight (one possession*) games:

17 pts, 5-9 FG, 2-4 3FG, 5-6 FT
12 pts, 5-10 FG, 0-3 3FG, 2-6 FT
19 pts, 6-9 FG, 3-4 3FG, 4-6 FT
15 pts, 5-9 FG, 1-3 3FG, 4-4 FT
30 pts, 8-17 FG, 5-10 3FG, 9-10 FT
19 pts, 7-14 FG, 4-10 3FG, 1-2 FT
13 pts, 4-7 FG, 1-3 3FG, 4-4 FT

For a 2012-13 tight game average of: 17.9 ppg, 53% FG, 43% 3FG, 78% FT

*excluding Curry because a meaningless 3-pointer cut it to one-possession.

A few observations:
-There are exactly two such games in the last two seasons in which Kizel shot under 50%: an early January game vs. Tufts and the Amherst game in which he was 8-16 before his 3/4-court heave at the buzzer clanged off the front rim. That is an absurd statistic.
-The number of clutch moments Kizel has had can't be reflected in these statistics.

To say that Middlebury sans Sharry has "no one you can expect to step up and take over when he has to" is to not have paid attention to Middlebury basketball for the last two years.

[middhoops]

Give Dave a break. 
Any objective viewer can see that Middlebury has some gaping holes compared to Amherst, St. Thomas and North Central.  The Scranton debacle reminds us of a vulnerability to big, athletic guards.  Big Pete is a story we don't want to discuss.  But, who cares?
Midd is in the elite 8 and most everyone acknowledges it's more than luck.  North Central deserves to be a decided favorite in the next game.  Having said that, no one at North Central thinks Middlebury has been lucky.  They know they're in for a battle that is likely to come down to the last minute.  A dozen or so teams can tell you what the Panthers are like in that last minute.

[madzillagd]

I apologize in advance for the long post but as Amh63 said, it's Monday and the games aren't until Friday.  Great win by Williams this weekend and puts them in a unique position of being an underdog for a change.  That of course got me thinking about what's the difference between St. Thomas and Williams.  In a word: Amherst. 

ST 29-1   WC 26-4.  The difference: Amherst

Record against Top 25 Opponents (Last Poll)
ST  3-0   WC 4-3 The difference: Amherst

Teams Beat  ST: #6, #14, #22   WC: #7, #7, #9, #25 (Lost to #2 three times)

St. Thomas beat 17 different teams this year; 9 of those teams won 15 or more games.
Williams beat 22 different teams this year; 11 of those teams won 15 or more games.

Massey SOS:  ST 16, WC 71

Games against Top 10 teams:  ST  1, WC  6 

Games against Elite 8 teams:  ST  0, WC 5

                            ST            WC
PPG                       81.3         80.0
Opp PPG                60.2         66.2
FG                        .527         .505
Def FG                   .437        .389
3 pt FG                  .427         .392
Def 3 FG                .291         .319
3s made/gm           7             8
FT %                      .707        .744
Rebs                      34.7         37.6
Assists                   17.2         15.5
Turnovers              10.9         12.5
Steals                    8.6           5.9
Blocks                    2.1          3.8

Tourney PPG            74          84

These teams look to be pretty even.  Even though St. Thomas has slightly better offensive stats they haven't been as effective offensively through 3 games in the tournament as Williams has.  ST has averaged 74 ppg in the tournament, but only 65.5 over the last 2 games against better opponents.  In fact, Calvin which has a very similar Def FG % (.368) to Williams held them to 63 pts; Wheaton (.415) held them to 68.  Williams on the other hand is averaging 84 ppg, 86.5 ppg in their last two.  They did so against two good defensive teams in VA Wesleyan (def fg % .419) and Catholic (.388).

I'm fine if people want to classify Williams as the underdog but I have to say I love the fact that they are going into this contest with much more experience this year against top opponents than St Thomas has.  The only top 10 team ST has played this year is Whitworth and in my opinion Whitworth never deserved to be a Top 10 team.  (Whitworth was 0-1 against Top 25 teams all year - so they were never really tested).  Williams has had 5 games against the Elite Eight teams alone and 6 games against Top 10 teams.  Should be quite the battle on Friday between two solid clubs. 

[Panthernation]

Let's compare those numbers to the D3hoops Regional Player of the Year, Aaron Toomey (who we all agree is the kind of player you want in exactly those games and those situations) in one-possession games over the last two years, just to show how hard it is for anyone — even one of the best players in the country — to be as good as Kizel has been in big games. (We're not trying to make a Toomey v. Kizel overally value argument here, to be abundantly clear... Toomey is a huge part of the reason Amherst hasn't had that many close games, just saying in those games let's look at a fair player comparison to see how hard it is to be as consistently great and consistently clutch as Kizel has been.)

Toomey's per-game average over the last two years in such games: 14.6 ppg, 34% FG, 36% 3FG, 79% FT

If we are going to criticize Middlebury in the context of other teams in the Elite Eight, let's not do it on the basis of lacking a big-game, big-moment player.

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

Maybe you should just address me... since I am the host. And considering I have voted for Middlebury as the number one team in the country during much of last season... I am not sure how I have discredited them over them years. Have I not been impressed this year? No... but I also have them in my Top 10 and have had them as high as #2 throughout the year... so you are right, clearly I am discrediting them.

Middlebury has won games ugly this year and their coach, who was on Hoopsville this year - but let's ignore that fact - admitted to that. Ithaca gift wrapped the end of that game on Saturday and the Panthers had to really dig deep to get past Cortland State. They did win both games and I give them that credit... but they are up against North Central who is a really physical team who also may play faster than nearly any other team Middlebury has played this year. If Amherst is as fast as NCC, they aren't even close to as physical. Middlebury has a bunch of team players, but no one you can expect to step up and take over when he has to... that could be a major factor against an NCC team that has three guys who can take over at any point in the game.

So on paper, Middlebury doesn't look like a winner versus NCC - but that is the key... and why I said it... on paper. When anyone tries to break a game down or try and figure out who can or can't win... it is based on the term "paper." They have to play the games and while match-ups don't look right or something doesn't seem to add up, the games reveal what we can't expect in looking at all the video and box scores in the world.

As for Williams, they are going up against the number one team in the country that has had basically two close games all year: Concordia-Moorehead who shot the lights out of the building on the road and an underrated Calvin team in the last round. Williams has played well, but hasn't exactly dominated against teams of equal, close-to-equal, or better than they are this season. They certainly have plenty of parts, but this is a UST team that has tons of experience including in Salem two years ago when they won a national title... again... ON PAPER this appears to be a UST win.

Uhm, not sure what you are talking about here, but Concordia, playing @ UST in Dec (i.e., on the road), got buried 93-64 and shot 44% (not "lights out" by any stretch of the imagination). If you mean the game UST lost AT Concordia, Tthe Cobbers shot 39.6%, again hardly "lights out." The Toms had an atrocious off night at Cobberville and played their worst game of the season.  If 44% and losing by 29 is your definition of lights out shooting, then I'm dying o hear what you UST's season FG% (52.7%) which is simply #1 in ALL of NCAA- Division I, II and III. Would that be called "extra-gallactical"?

The loss at Concordia was close game for UST, as was the OT win at Bethany Lutheran, and the win over Calvin. Amherst would do well to watch video of VCU as well as UST in effort get a notion of what kind of defense they will run into Friday. As several MIAC coaches have siad, seeing them on video is one thing but until you actually see them on the court, you cannot fully appreciate the athleticsism and quickness they play on defense and that they do it intensely for evey second of 40 minutes.

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

Keeping with your NBA comparisons I offer a few (more or less tongue in cheek):

Tommy Hannon-----Kevin McHale
Will Deberg--- Pistol Pete Maravich
Erik Tengwall-- John Stockton
John Nance-- Dennis Rodman without the distractions, wedding dresses & insanity
Zach Riederman- Larry Bird with brown hair


Coach Tauer-- Phil Jackson without the ego

UST cheerladers- a cross between Laker girls and Cowboy cheerleaders (and equally clueless about the game)

[amh63]

miac.....thanks for the advice for the Amherst coaches.  Though not sure/clear where you are coming from...sort of out of
the blue  type of comment, IMO.   If you are talking about Amherst's next opponent.....I will proceed.
Heard the comment of...not having play them you do not know how fast/quick they are.....several times before when Amherst met fast quick teams that plays defense for 40 minutes...or something like that.  Guess you are telling me  that the coaches should watch videos of other quick teams and then it is a waste of time.....got to play them to understand how good they are.  Am I missing something here?
In any case....Amherst have met a wide range of talented/tough teams.....in the conference and outside the conference.  Amherst's last several matches had teams that were fast, quick, deep and played great defense.  Amherst prevailed and the coaches had  game plans.  I would think the elite 8 opponent should worry in turn about what Amherst bring to the "plate"....don't you think?
Still feel that I am missing something in your post in reference to Amherst.

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

miac.....thanks for the advice for the Amherst coaches.  Though not sure/clear where you are coming from...sort of out of
the blue  type of comment, IMO.   If you are talking about Amherst's next opponent.....I will proceed.
Heard the comment of...not having play them you do not know how fast/quick they are.....several times before when Amherst met fast quick teams that plays defense for 40 minutes...or something like that.  Guess you are telling me  that the coaches should watch videos of other quick teams and then it is a waste of time.....got to play them to understand how good they are.  Am I missing something here?
In any case....Amherst have met a wide range of talented/tough teams.....in the conference and outside the conference.  Amherst's last several matches had teams that were fast, quick, deep and played great defense.  Amherst prevailed and the coaches had  game plans.  I would think the elite 8 opponent should worry in turn about what Amherst bring to the "plate"....don't you think?
Still feel that I am missing something in your post in reference to Amherst.

my bad... I meant Williams.

But Amherst will be wise to follow my adivce before the anticipated April 7 meeting with UST. Of course, being a clueless Midwesterner, what would I know? (the lowly clueless Midwesterners seem to be doing something right, with championships in 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008)