MBB: NESCAC

[dcahill44]

3 NESCACS in the Elite 8... shows how this league is the Toughest in the Country.

[Mr. Ypsi]

3 NESCACS in the Elite 8... shows how this league is the Toughest in the Country.

Thank geography and the NCAA bean-counters.  I'm pretty sure that no conference in the (geographical) midwest has ever had the opportunity to put three teams in the Elite Eight (I know that is true of the CCIW).

[toad22]

From an Eph perspective, the setup this year at Salem is near-perfect. Absolutely no one predicts that Williams can play with St. Thomas. Williams is playing really well right now. In fact, the best we've played all year. We have a great coach, who can pick apart nearly team, given a few days. The game will be played at 12 noon (the first game). I like our chances of giving St. Thomas a really hard time. I know that they are good, but we're really good too. I look for a great game, with Williams coming out on top.

[Gregory Sager]

Second - you are saying the west and midwest have won as many titles in the last 10 years.....so now the NESCAC has to be compared to whole regions to make a fair argument?

With the conspicuous exception of last season's MIT squad, the NESCAC is the Northeast Region as far as the D3 Final Four is concerned over that ten-year stretch. But, going back even further, the NESCAC has been the sole New England league that has ever carried its own water in this division. Aside from the NESCAC and a scattered few programs here and there (MIT, Brandeis, and, back in the day, Clark), this is as much of a weak-sister region as the East Region has been.

Here's the list of all of the non-NESCAC teams from the Northeast Region that have made it to the Final Four in D3 tourney history:

2012 MIT	third place (no consolation game)
2000 Salem State	third place
1993 Mass-Dartmouth	fourth place
1989 Southern Maine	third place
1987 Clark	second place
1984 Clark	second place

Not a very long list, is it? Six Final Fours out of 38 in which there's been a non-NESCAC representative from the most heavily-populated (even if you don't count the NESCAC teams) region in D3. That's an extremely dismal showing over the span of almost four decades. And you'll also notice that a non-NESCAC Northeast Region team has never won the national championship; the only two titles that the region has ever won were the Williams title in '03 and the Amherst title in '07. In fact, only twice have non-NESCAC Northeast Region teams even made it to the national championship game, and those were the two teams from that fantastic run that Clark had back in the mid-'80s under Wally Halas. Even so, the '84 Clark team got blown out by 17 points by UWW in the national championship game, which illustrates another point -- non-NESCAC Northeast Region teams have tended over the years to find themselves in over their heads if and when they reach the deeper rounds of the tourney. The '89 Southern Maine team lost in the semifinals by 22 to eventual national runner-up College of New Jersey. In 2000 Salem State lost by 22 points to UWEC in the semifinals, in spite of the fact that one of UWEC's two stars, 6'8 forward Jon Wallenfelsz (17.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg) missed the entire Final Four due to a knee injury. Last year's MIT team lost by 15 to eventual national champion UWW, although I and most everyone else who watched that game thought that MIT acquitted itself well against Chris Davis & Co.

In short -- yes, the NESCAC is compared to whole regions in discussions regarding the D3 tourney, because, for all intents and purposes, it is the whole region. The rest of the Northeast Region has very, very little to show for itself over the years in the D3 tourney.

[frank uible]

toad: Williams will not have the benefit of sneaking up on opponents when you keep shouting that they are going to do it. What you need to say is and only is "Aw, shucks. All we can hope to do is show up and play hard against such a great opponent as UST".

[Gregory Sager]

NESCAC right now has three of the top ten hoops programs in the NCAA.  No doubt about that.

Plenty of doubt about that. Three of the top twenty or twenty-five? I wouldn't question that. Three of the top ten? Very, very much open to debate.

It is one of the elite conferences in D-3 and I have little doubt that the 2003-4 Amherst/Williams teams, 2007-08 Amherst teams, the 2011 Midd team, and the 2010-11 Williams teams, to name a few, would have kicked butt in any bracket.  Same with the a few of this year's squads.

So you're saying, then, that the three NESCAC teams would've gotten just as far if finances hadn't been a factor in setting up the bracket, and if a more evenly-spaced bracket could've been set up?

Just for the sake of reference, let's look at each of the Elite Eight teams' road thus far, using the latest d3hoops.com poll and the Massey Ratings:

St. Thomas (#1 d3h / #1 Massey)
UNR / #76 Aurora
#22 / #11 Wheaton (IL)
#12 /  #4 Calvin
d3h avg. = #25 / Massey avg. = #30

Williams (#8 d3h / #8 Massey)
UNR  / #43 Wesley
#9 / #22 Catholic
#25 / #20 Virginia Wesleyan
d3h avg. = #25 / Massey avg. = #28

Mary Hardin-Baylor (UNR d3h / #17 Massey)
-- bye --
UNR / #18 Concordia (TX)
#6 / #14 @ Whitworth
d3h avg. = #29 / Massey avg. = #16 or #148 (including bye)

St. Mary's (MD) (#11 d3h / #10 Massey)
#24 / #67 MIT
#26 / #23 @ Alvernia
UNR / #121 Morrisville State
d3h avg. = #30 / Massey avg. = #70

Amherst (#2 d3h / #5 Massey)
-- bye --
UNR / #66 Plattsburgh State
UNR / #16 Randolph-Macon
d3h avg. = #40 / Massey avg. = #41 or #165 (including bye)

Cabrini (#30 d3h / #26 Massey)
#16 / #9 @ Hampden-Sydney
#21 / #30 @ Ohio Wesleyan
#20 / #31 @ Wooster
d3h avg. = #19 / Massey avg. = #23

North Central (#3 d3h / #2 Massey)
UNR / #65 Centre
#5 / #3 vs. UW-Whitewater
#10 / #7 Illinois Wesleyan
d3h avg. = #18 / Massey avg. = #25

Middlebury (#7 d3h / #19 Massey)
UNR / #123 Curry
UNR / #29 @ Cortland State
UNR / #74 Ithaca
d3h avg. = #40 / Massey avg. = #79

(For all teams unranked by d3hoops.com, I assigned a #40 value, since 39 teams received votes in the last poll. For the two teams that received byes, the second Massey number includes a #413 ranking for the open slot, since there are 412 D3 men's basketball teams rated by Massey.)

[Gregory Sager]

Now, let's look at the Elite Eight in terms of their aggregate opponent rankings/ratings:

St. Thomas:	d3h avg. = #25 / Massey avg. = #30
Williams:	d3h avg. = #25 / Massey avg. = #28
Mary Hardin-Baylor:	d3h avg. = #29 / Massey avg. = #16 or #148 (including bye)
St. Mary's (MD):	d3h avg. = #30 / Massey avg. = #70
Amherst:	d3h avg. = #40 / Massey avg. = #41 or #165 (including bye)
Cabrini:	d3h avg. = #19 / Massey avg. = #23
North Central:	d3h avg. = #18 / Massey avg. = #25
Middlebury:	d3h avg. = #40 / Massey avg. = #79

A few things jump out:

* Cabrini's run is really impressive. The Cavaliers are the greatest road warriors since Mel Gibson. Not only have they faced the second-most highly-ranked teams (d3hoops.com), just barely behind NCC, and most highly-rated teams (Massey) on average, they've won all three of those games on the road. Cabrini needs to get much more of a shout-out from the d3boards.com regulars (myself included) for this remarkable feat than it's gotten thus far.

* Aside from Cabrini, North Central (representing the so-called "Bracket of Death") has had the toughest road to Salem. Williams and St. Thomas follow next, in close proximity to each other. St. Mary's and Mary Hardin-Baylor have had it comparatively easy, although I'd argue that UMHB's two-thousand-mile flight to beat Whitworth in the home gym of the Pirates more than cancels out the benefit of having a first-round bye.

* Amherst and Middlebury have had the two easiest roads to the Elite Eight, by either the d3hoops.com or Massey standard. Even if you were to take away Amherst's first-round bye and force the Lord Jeffs to play either one of what would've been the two likeliest choices for their first-round opponent if this was a 63-team bracket rather than a 62-team bracket -- the Brandeis Judges, who were unranked in the latest d3hoops.com poll and currently sit at #48 in the Massey Ratings, or the Springfield Pride, who are unranked and #97 -- Amherst's tourney strength of schedule doesn't improve much by either standard, and it certainly doesn't vault them past any of the other seven Elite Eight teams by comparison.

I don't see the evidence that the three NESCAC teams would've "kicked butt in any bracket." I say that not to demean any of the three, all of whom appear to be high-quality teams, from what I've been able to see of them via webcasts. The NESCAC has quite a bit to be proud of in terms of those three squads, but I think you're reaching a bit too much into hyperbole when you start to compare them to other high-quality teams around the country.

[Gregory Sager]

3 NESCACS in the Elite 8... shows how this league is the Toughest in the Country.

It shows nothing of the sort, as D-Mac and Mr. Ypsi have already explained.

[frank uible]

Sager: Don't you know that this is Hyperbole Central.

[AO]

NESCAC right now has three of the top ten hoops programs in the NCAA.  No doubt about that.

Plenty of doubt about that. Three of the top twenty or twenty-five? I wouldn't question that. Three of the top ten? Very, very much open to debate.

It is one of the elite conferences in D-3 and I have little doubt that the 2003-4 Amherst/Williams teams, 2007-08 Amherst teams, the 2011 Midd team, and the 2010-11 Williams teams, to name a few, would have kicked butt in any bracket.  Same with the a few of this year's squads.

So you're saying, then, that the three NESCAC teams would've gotten just as far if finances hadn't been a factor in setting up the bracket, and if a more evenly-spaced bracket could've been set up?

Just for the sake of reference, let's look at each of the Elite Eight teams' road thus far, using the latest d3hoops.com poll and the Massey Ratings:

St. Thomas (#1 d3h / #1 Massey)
UNR / #76 Aurora
#22 / #11 Wheaton (IL)
#12 /  #4 Calvin
d3h avg. = #25 / Massey avg. = #30

Williams (#8 d3h / #8 Massey)
UNR  / #43 Wesley
#9 / #22 Catholic
#25 / #20 Virginia Wesleyan
d3h avg. = #25 / Massey avg. = #28

Mary Hardin-Baylor (UNR d3h / #17 Massey)
-- bye --
UNR / #18 Concordia (TX)
#6 / #14 @ Whitworth
d3h avg. = #29 / Massey avg. = #16 or #148 (including bye)

St. Mary's (MD) (#11 d3h / #10 Massey)
#24 / #67 MIT
#26 / #23 @ Alvernia
UNR / #121 Morrisville State
d3h avg. = #30 / Massey avg. = #70

Amherst (#2 d3h / #5 Massey)
-- bye --
UNR / #66 Plattsburgh State
UNR / #16 Randolph-Macon
d3h avg. = #40 / Massey avg. = #41 or #165 (including bye)

Cabrini (#30 d3h / #26 Massey)
#16 / #9 @ Hampden-Sydney
#21 / #30 @ Ohio Wesleyan
#20 / #31 @ Wooster
d3h avg. = #19 / Massey avg. = #23

North Central (#3 d3h / #2 Massey)
UNR / #65 Centre
#9 / #3 vs. UW-Whitewater
#10 / #7 Illinois Wesleyan
d3h avg. = #20 / Massey avg. = #25

Middlebury (#7 d3h / #19 Massey)
UNR / #123 Curry
UNR / #29 @ Cortland State
UNR / #74 Ithaca
d3h avg. = #40 / Massey avg. = #79

(For all teams unranked by d3hoops.com, I assigned a #40 value, since 39 teams received votes in the last poll. For the two teams that received byes, the second Massey number includes a #413 ranking for the open slot, since there are 412 D3 men's basketball teams rated by Massey.)

The NESCAC protection becomes especially evident in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.   St. Thomas and North Central played the top 3 opponents listed and 4 of the top 7.

[nescac1]

Sigh ... same stuff every year. 

A few comments:

(1) You have to address the teams that Amherst and Midd COULD HAVE faced, who they did is totally irrelevant.  This was a discussion of BRACKETING.  Had Amherst faced WPI and Midd faced Rochester as expected, the paths to the Elite 8 would have looked a LOT stronger.  Remember, this was about the purported unfairness of having NESCAC teams having as supposed advantage by not having to face each other in the tourney.  As Madzillag demonstrated, the brackets were set up almost perfectly to allow for most if not all of the top eight teams to all advance to Salem.  Pretty hard to do.  Whereas in other years, it is supposedly unfair when NESCAC teams get an easier path because they DON'T have to face Midwest teams.  Go back y'all and read what Pat Coleman wrote earlier in this thread, which is entirely accurate, and I think very unbiased.  I can understand past complaints about NESCAC teams getting to avoid other regions when advancing to the Final Four.  But then it's simply ridiculous to turn around and complain about NESCAC teams, ummm, NOT getting to avoid other regions, as has been in the case over the past three years or so.  My sole point is that you can't have it both ways.  Folks' primary complaint about NESCAC and they tourney has been resolved.  So what happens?  Apparently, a new complaint about NESCAC, which is exactly the OPPOSITE of the old complaint.  Sheesh.   

(2) No one has impugned the caliber of play in the Midwest (and by the way, last I checked, most of the recent past champions have actually come from the West region, not the Midwest), NO ONE!!!  We've just defended the caliber of NESCAC teams in the tourney, saying that those who have advanced, have clearly belonged in the Final Four.  No one has said anything here to counter that, by the way.  I'm not sure how Salem State tanking proves that Williams or Amherst were not teams that proved they were among the very best in D-3 every year they made the Final Four.  Overall, I'd say the Midwest and West are the two strongest regions.  I think New England is probably third, South fourth, and tourney results more or less bear that out.  And saying, hey, if you take NESCAC out of the picture, New England looks a lot weaker is pretty unfair.  If you take WIAC, CCIW, NJAC or ODAC out of their regions, suddenly, those regions are a lot less successful, too.  NESCAC squads have in recent years knocked off a bunch of good New England teams (Brandeis comes to mind) who I think would have fared well in the Final Four had they not hit a NESCAC stumbling block.  Also, when you talk about the success of New England in the tourney, going back into the 1980's really isn't very fair.  The caliber of New England basketball has improved immensely over the years, and of course, NESCAC wasn't even ELIGIBLE to play in the NCAA's until 1993, so that seems like a fair starting point to judge this topic. 

(3) Saying that Midd, Amherst, and Williams are only among the top 25 or so national D-3 programs right now, rather than the top 10, just seems ridiculous.  Over the past five years, when you combine tourney and regular season success, all-Americans produced, and prognosis for the future based on current talent, coaching, and recruiting, all three are clearly towards the very top of the D-3, period.  In no particular order, I see the dozen top D-3 power programs right now as certainly including Illinois Wesleyan, Stevens Point, Whitewater, Wooster, Cabrini, Wash U., W/M/A, St. Thomas, Virginia Wesleyan, Whitworth.  That group, outside of VWU, will all be highly ranked to start next season, and all had great seasons this year and in most of the prior years.  Maybe Augustana, Hope, F&M, Wittenberg, Calvin and Hampden Sydney can make a case (although I'd put all clearly behind the NESCAC trio, and most from that group won't be especially highly ranked to start next season), and perhaps there are another few who belong in that group, but an additional five to ten before you get to at least one of W/A/M?  Get serious. 

[JustAFan]

Mercy!, as Red Sox broadcaster Ned Martin used to say. What a bunch of long-winded, but passionate, fans! Only in DIII can you get statistical analysis as part of a debate (which I am sure Hugenerd is examining as we speak).

Nescac1, your post 3 pages back about in region vs. out of region, damned if you do or don't, was right on the money. You should be considering law school if only the market for law grads was better. And madzillagd as usual you hit the nail on the head with your post that the NCAA seeding has resulted in a majority of the top teams making the elite 8, so what's the issue?! (and your St. Thomas/Williams comparison was good reading as well).

But do you think we can give this debate a rest for a day?  Otherwise, we will spend tomorrow debating whether the midwestern teams have an unfair advantage because some (underline "some") of them are bigger than the NESCAC schools, and then we'll spend Wednesday debating whether the NESCAC schools have an unfair advantage because they can recruit nationally rather than regionally, followed by a debate on Thursday about the midwestern schools having an advantage because they can admit some kids academically that the NESCAC can't, and on and on we go....

Did all of the best teams make it to Salem? Did some teams have a harder road than others? Did some get lucky? Who cares!  Like the old Indiana high school state tournament, regardless of how each team got to Salem it deserves to be there and earned the right to be there even if some "better" teams got left behind.  The NESCAC schools have very little, if any, influence over the tournament committee. They are just playing the games that were scheduled, and even though only one of them was expected to make it to Salem, all 3 have achieved that goal, and that should be applauded.  I think the geographic approach that the NCAA is using with increased frequency in its basketball pairings is a much better process than the regional champions approach that's used in DIII baseball to determine the 8 teams that go to Appleton because the basketball approach maximizes the chances of getting most of the best teams to Salem. So, let's celebrate the wonderful bouillabaisse that is DIII athletics, and let's enjoy the day long celebration of DIII basketball in Salem on Friday, and let's start discussing the teams, and games, involved.

[Gregory Sager]

If the NESCAC teams that made it to Salem were not among the top five or so teams nationally in any given year, they would have tanked in Salem.  Never happened.  The point I made before is that the NESCAC teams PROVED they belonged when they got to the Final Four.  They ALL walked the walk.

You only cited the NESCAC's Final Four teams from the past decade as part of your argument, and, insofar as those Williams, Amherst, and Middlebury teams are concerned, you're basically correct. But you left out the first four appearances of the NESCAC in the Final Four, and those were very different iterations in terms of "walking the walk":

1995: Trinity (CT), fourth place
Semifinals: UW-Platteville 82, Trinity (CT) 59
Consolation: Rowan 105, Trinity (CT) 72

1997: Williams, third place
Semifinals: Nebraska Wesleyan 101, Williams 90
Consolation: Williams 78, Alvernia 77

1998: Williams, third place
Semifinals: UW-Platteville 82, Williams 68
Consolation: Williams 105, Wilkes 93

1999: Connecticut College, third place
Semifinals: Hampden-Sydney 74, Connecticut College 58
Consolation: Connecticut College 92, William Paterson 83 (ot)

Each of the first four NESCAC teams to reach the Final Four lost by double digits in the semifinals. Seems to me that you need to qualify your statement to make it plain that it applies only to the most recent NESCAC Final Four teams, starting with the breakthrough achieved by Williams in '03.

[Mr. Ypsi]

And if I was one of the targets of the sigh, please note that I didn't say a word about NESCAC teams being unworthy.  I merely responded to a post which made a total non sequitur point: no other conference (to the best of my knowledge) has ever had the opportunity to have three teams in the Elite Eight.  In 2001 the CCIW came very close: CCIW #2 Carthage made the E8 (and missed the FF by two stinkin' points @ ONU); meanwhile, CCIW #3 IWU (who did make the FF), knocked off CCIW #1 Elmhurst in the Sweet 16; since IWU then beat national #1 Chicago (AT Chicago) by three times as much as they beat Elmhurst, if the order of IWU's games had been reversed, I have little doubt the CCIW would have had three E8 teams.

3 NESCACS in the Elite 8... shows how this league is the Toughest in the Country.

Thank geography and the NCAA bean-counters.  I'm pretty sure that no conference in the (geographical) midwest has ever had the opportunity to put three teams in the Elite Eight (I know that is true of the CCIW).

[nescac1]

Mr. Ypsi, you might want to check this year's bracket.  I'm pretty sure at least three and possibly four ODAC teams could have made it to Salem.