MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

Old Guy.....enjoyed your post....a sort of ride into the sunset for this season, I guess.  Maybe you can make a "guest" appearance post after your trip to the Big Dance....a sort of insider report of your experiences that you would report here.  If you catch the Div 3 game....your impressions.
One last question for you......when will the BB players that play baseball join the team?

[maineman]

Old Guy.....enjoyed your post....a sort of ride into the sunset for this season, I guess.  Maybe you can make a "guest" appearance post after your trip to the Big Dance....a sort of insider report of your experiences that you would report here.  If you catch the Div 3 game....your impressions.
One last question for you......when will the BB players that play baseball join the team?

Sinnickson already has....but he really didn't play basketball this year.  Merryman, I suspect will play once the team returns from AZ.

[AmherstStudent05]

That being said, not sure if it's just me, but two parts of his game give me pause, and I will never know how his teammates feel about either.  Maybe I am seeing something they don't.  First, at least once a game he seems to be hurt to the point that an ambulance is in order.  After 30 seconds of shaking it off or a teammate pulling him up, he is back at 100% as though ET just touched him like he did the dead plant in the movie.  Is he tough or a bit of a drama queen?  My honest take is more the latter than the former.  Finally, might he be a bit too concerned with what he gets and his contributions, and sulk a bit when he is not the focal point?  He barely cracked a smile and almost had to pushed into the post game NESCAC Tournament celebration after the Williams game.  Sorry if you Amherst guys see this as picky, and I fully expect you to jump down my throat.     

I agree that Toomey was subdued after the NESCAC Championship game. I highly doubt though that it had anything to do with whether or not he was the focal point of the game.  As you might recall, he uncharacteristically missed the front end of a one-and-one at the end of the game that would have put the Jeffs in commanding position.  I suspect he was just being hard on himself is all.  As a Lord Jeff fan, I greatly admire and appreciate #2's will to win, but, as others have stated before, I do worry that sometimes he might be too hard on himself or press too much.

As for Toomey being a possible drama queen, I think that is an overly harsh charge that has slender (if any) foundation.  Have you seen some of the hits he has taken this postseason?  I am not sure anything can top the punishment he received in the NESCAC Semifinals against Tufts, but he took some real shots to the head in the North Central game as well.  Even the announcers noticed (which means it must have been obvious!).  Now, Toomey is definitely "responsible" for a lot of the contact he receives because most of the time he is trying to get himself fouled.  Often times he gets what he is looking for, and the resulting contact isn't always pretty.  I don't believe Toomey is looking for recognition as a tough guy.  He just wants to get to the line and is willing to sacrifice his body at times to do it.  I admire his selflessness, but do wish he would be more judicious at times in drawing contact from bigger bodies.

With Amh63's indulgence, I would like to return to the mysterious case of Vince Kmiec for a moment because I truly find the broader question of luck vs. good defense interesting.  He goes 10-15 against Middlebury one night and then 24 hours later he goes 1-11 against Amherst.  On its face, pure luck or superior Lord Jeff defense both seem like plausible explanations.  It is obviously very difficult to compare the looks he got against Amherst with the looks he got against Middlebury.  Maybe Amherst made him work harder to get his "open"looks on offense. Maybe Amherst worked him harder on defense, thereby tiring him out on the offensive end.  Maybe Friday night was just the night of his life and Saturday was the hangover and Amherst was the beneficiary.  Are there any "advanced" stats that might help shed light on this.

The reason this is of particular interest to me is because as I was watching the Amherst-Middlebury classic back in February, I honestly felt that Toomey was getting a lot of good looks at the basket.  In fact, at some level, I thought he had to work harder for his shot earlier in the year against RIC.  Toomey was amazing against RIC, shooting 9-12 from the field en route to a 34 point night (our next best scorer had 15).  Of course, against Midd, he was a dreadful 5-24 (although, Frank, he did have an 8:1 assist to turnover ratio!).  Again, as an Amherst fan, I wanted to believe that Toomey simply had an off night.  But, at the same time, it was hard to argue with the Midd partisans who wanted to use this stat line as further evidence of Nolan Thompson's defensive genius.  Nolan Thompson has made a (well earned) reputation for shutting down opponent's star players, and this stat line seemed to be in keeping with that reputation.  But could Toomey possibly just have had an off night? Can we know?

One final thought on this topic.  Even let's assume that I buy in to the "Midd" theory that there are two Vince Kmiecs: one who, regardless of his opposition, wakes up one morning and can't miss all day and one who wakes up and can't buy a jumper. I am honestly curious to hear from Midd posters about how Midd decided to defend Kmiec once it was clear (midway thru the first half perhaps) that they had the misfortune of having "good" Vince on their hands.  To my (admittedly untrained) eye, Middlebury did not defend Kmiec any differently throughout the course of the game, even as he was torching them for 31 points.  Now, surely they must have made some adjustment, but I would like to know what it was.  I know they never switched Thompson on him, and I am curious why not or if Midd posters think this was a mistake.  By all appearances, Kmiec fits the profile of being in Thompson's wheelhouse defensively.  Obviously, I understand that putting Thompson on Kmiec would mean taking him off the All-American Raridon, but it was clear fairly early in the game that Kmiec was the one playing like an All-American. Is there something else I am missing as to why Kmiec couldn't get the Thompson treatment?

[AmherstStudent05]

Amh63 we can move on as you wish, although I think of you go back and read our overall discussion of Amherst you'll find that we're quite complimentary of the Lord Jeffs on the whole.

Panthernation, it may well be that you have been "complimentary of the Lord Jeffs on the whole," but, with due respect, I am not sure that that is much of a concession.  In light of Amherst's recent success, I am not sure how you could post here WITHOUT being largely complimentary of Amherst.  I would say the same thing about Williams, Mayer, Maker, Middlebury, Thompson, Kizel, etc.  Hard not to have mostly great things to say about that outstanding group of people/teams I just ticked off (not meant to be exhaustive of course).

I think what has Amherst fans most troubled (at least this one) are your recent criticisms of Aaron Toomey.  Those, on the whole, have not been terribly positive in recent weeks.

As I understand it, this all started a few weeks ago when you published your remarkable case in favor of Nolan Thompson for NESCAC PoY.  Like many, I suspect, I admired the effort and work that went into that piece and found many of the arguments interesting even if I was totally unpersuaded by the conclusions.  But, I think all would agree, it was a valuable and commendable contribution to the board.  Then, in addition to making your case "for" Nolan, you also examined, as you had to do, the other possible contenders.  If I recall this is where you started to argue that Toomey was overrated and that he wasn't even the most valuable player on his own team.  I strongly disagreed with this position (notably as did most Amherst posters, even though we love Workman), but to my mind, this all fell within the bounds of honest and constructive criticism/conversation.  Even other respected "outsiders" on the board, such as nescac1 agreed with many of your claims.

However, in recent weeks, I for one feel like your Toomey references have moved beyond the Thompson for PoY debate and have become more petty and less defensible.  There are a few examples.  First, while you initially seemed to frame your Thompson argument as the best among many plausible choices, after the award was ultimately given to Toomey, you guys later seemed to call this choice indefensible.  I thought that was more than a little harsh for an award I think Toomey well earned, but whatever.  Also, on twitter you snarkily pointed out Toomey's missed free throw in the NESCAC Championship game.  I am not on twitter and am unfamiliar with the etiquette there, but I thought this was gratuitous.  For what it's worth, as far as I know, neither you nor anyone else (Midd, Amherst or other) made any mention of Thompson's crucial free throw misses against Curry and Ithaca (twice).  There was absolutely no need: the misses (thankfully) didn't affect the outcome of the game, there was nothing interesting or mysterious about them worthy of comment or discussion, and there was no need to diminish a player we all greatly respect.  But again, this may be a small, uncharitable quibble on my part.

However, this past weekend you seem to have taken things to a whole new level.  Perhaps it is my Amherst education getting in the way, but if I understand your recent posts correctly, you are now arguing that (1) Toomey is at best the THIRD best OFFENSIVE option for Amherst and (2) that at least in the context of the current Amherst team (the only context that would seem to matter), the Jeffs would be better served if Kalema played ahead of Toomey.

Let me take these in turn as briefly as I can.  First, I guess I am glad you are coming around to Allen Williamson.  Too bad this couldn't have happened when you were filling out your All-NESCAC selections.  But I do understand the predicament you were in: so many Middlebury players and so few spaces to fit them all in.  Anyway, as any loyal Amherst basketball fan, I am tremendously appreciative of all that Williamson has brought to the program in his career and, in particular, this season.  I thought he was definitely our MVP this weekend in Salem, and he was certainly the best player on the court during the NESCAC Championship game.  That said, I have no idea how you can argue that Williamson is one of our two best players, let alone one of our two best offensive weapons.  I love Williamson's game and really don't want to spend any time critiquing it, but he has still yet to really develop his three-point range, and he usually is not at his best when called to log 30+ minutes a game (Williamson is incredibly talented, but credit Coach Hixon for also managing him very well).  But rather than quibble with Williamson's slight weaknesses, I would rather focus on Toomey's positives.  Many of Toomey's accomplishments have been amply described in previous posts by very able Amherst supporters.  I just wanted to point out one statistic that I recently came upon.  In seven games this year (all wins) Toomey had 10+ points more than the next leading Amherst scorer (a couple of times the gap was closer to 20 and on two additional occasions, he scored 9 more points than the next highest Amherst scorer). Unsurprisingly, Toomey was the only Jeff this season who ever scored 10+ points more than the next highest teammate.  Now, I know very little about advanced basketball stats, I leave that to Lefrakenstein, but surely this has to count for something.  Toomey can carry Amherst offensively in ways that no one else on our team can and he can do it even when he draws the most attention from opposing defenses.  Game in and game out, Amherst fans see the attention that opposing teams give Toomey.  Do you really think that if Coach DeWeese were allowed to pick one or two Amherst players to sit out of the Championship game that Toomey would not be on that list.  Or, to put it in terms you might better understand, if Middlebury loaned Mary Hardin Baylor Nolan Thompson, who do you think Thompson would guard? Williamson? Kalema?  We know what Coach Brown did.  For the overwhelming majority of the game, he put Thompson on Toomey.  Unfortunately (through no fault of Amherst's) we were deprived of a re-match of that 3OT classic, but I strongly suspect that if Midd played Amherst tomorrow, Thompson would find himself up against Toomey again. Possibly Workman. Definitely not Williamson or Kalema. But maybe Coach Brown also doesn't get it.  If Kalema is in the game instead of Toomey, who does Thompson guard? How is that better for Amherst?

As for your Kalema point, all I will say for now is that if right after the Curry game (your gutsy victory over them in the NCAA tournament, not our "farcical" competition against them earlier in the year) I posted something along the following lines -- "Congratulations on a great win, Middlebury. Tremendous effort.  You know, after watching this game, I think you guys would be a better team if Coach Brown played Jensen over Thompson" -- regular Middlebury posters would (justifiably) suspect one of two things about me: (1) I was completely uninformed about NESCAC basketball, or (2) I was just trying to get a rise out of them.

Look, as I hope elements of this post reflect, I take seriously and sincerely appreciate much of your prodigious and often insightful work product.  I even thought you guys were generally as good as (self) advertised on the radio in the Ithaca game.  Very knowledgeable, good delivery (just don't let nescac1 hear you always complain about calls that go against the Panthers!).  I just want to point out why perhaps you shouldn't act so surprised that you have recently come under some criticism from some of the Amherst faithful.  I do think that in recent weeks, your anti-Toomey commentary has generally been more petty and less defensible.  This could well just be an honest disagreement.  But, contrary to the impression sometimes left on this board, Middlebury posters arent the only ones who (justly) admire and respect their program's players and coaches!

[lefrakenstein]

Great first posts AS05. Welcome to the board.

[frank uible]

Very possibly great, certainly not concise.

[Bucket]

As the Panther season comes to a close, I take comfort—again—in the perspective of my six-year-old:

http://steadyshegoes.com/2013/03/23/thanks/

[frank uible]

If only we all could have remained or could remain 6 years old forever.

[magicman]

Even other respected "outsiders" on the board, such as nescac1 agreed with many of your claims.

AmherstStudent05,

Welcome to the boards, Nice posts.   Not sure you want to call nescac1, who is one of the primary contributors to this board an outsider though. I realize he's a Williams supporter and you are an Amherst supporter but that doesn't make him an "outsider on the board" does it? Anyways plus K on your posts. I enjoyed your arguments.

[amh63]

Amherst Student05.....enjoyed your posts.  Reflects your education more than my posts.  Several of your points led to this post.
Went to the NABC board to check on the All-American selections.  LeFrak had posted some news earlier but must have removed the post.  Anyway, found out that several (probably more) of the games I saw had 1st team selections and an 2nd team selection....several I met.  John DeBartolomeo, Aaron Toomey, Tahrike Carter and Derek Raridon to mention now.  Why?....John DeBart....because he was kind enough to answer a question of mine.  T. Carter, because he was the defensive star for RIC that guarded Aaron T. in the game when Aaron went for 34 points.  A  2nd-team All-American pick, LEC defensive player of the year, guarding Amherst's first-team All-American pick and the NESCAC Player of the year.  I want to note that
NCC's first team All American pick, Derek, #34, (yes, I finally got it....the one without the facial hair) was guarded by two NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year selections....Norm T and Willy W.
Going to Salem and seeing live games...made me realize why I enjoy going to live games.  I can see things/actions that are not always caught on a videocast....allows me to see what catches my eye/interest.  Most of all, I can chat with friends/people that "educate" me about the game we are watching...for example....near the end of the NCC game,  I asked the question of what should Amherst do to take better control of the game in the remaining time...play defense and prevent the shot, or foul the shooter and then getting the ball back after the foul shots.  Interesting discussion.  Choice was to play defense....Amherst went that way and got a TO and the ball.  Of course it was the case of Allen Williamson blocking a 3-point shot and then going in for the dunk.
Last comment....that may get a rise from the Williams posters.   On Friday, after the Williams game, I met up with several Amherst "Old Guard" supporters and former players.  One always goes to key football and BB games with a Williams graduate...former Williams BB player of the 60's that has gone to Salem for decades.  The conversation came up about a coaching spot opening in Div 1.  The Williams alum brought up the names of Maker and Paulsen.  The school....Northwestern of the Big 10....where the former Williams President now reign.

[lefrakenstein]

With Amh63's indulgence, I would like to return to the mysterious case of Vince Kmiec for a moment because I truly find the broader question of luck vs. good defense interesting.  He goes 10-15 against Middlebury one night and then 24 hours later he goes 1-11 against Amherst.  On its face, pure luck or superior Lord Jeff defense both seem like plausible explanations.  It is obviously very difficult to compare the looks he got against Amherst with the looks he got against Middlebury.  Maybe Amherst made him work harder to get his "open"looks on offense. Maybe Amherst worked him harder on defense, thereby tiring him out on the offensive end.  Maybe Friday night was just the night of his life and Saturday was the hangover and Amherst was the beneficiary.  Are there any "advanced" stats that might help shed light on this.

Not sure about 'advanced' stats, but it is true that Kmiec's shooting night against Amherst was he worst of his entire season. (1-11, 0-6 from 3). He was 0-4 one night, but that's the only time he's shot a lower percentage.

Conversely, his game against Middlebury was his best of the entire season. (10-15, 4-7 from 3) He shot a higher percentage once against North Park (7-10, 1-3 from 3), but shot less and less effectively from three.

Here are his season game splits:
http://northcentralcardinals.com/custompages/MBK/MBK1213/plyr_24.htm

So I think that the argument that he's just a streaky shooter and the Midd-Amherst games just represented normal variance is probably wrong: these games were outliers.

It's still possible of course that nothing in the Amherst game, other than Kmiec just being off, caused Kmiec to shoot so much worse. But given that the games were both outside his normal range of performances, I would say that the evidence suggests that that's unlikely.

[lefrakenstein]

Edit: Also, I'm not sure anyone on this board has mentioned that Toomey was named an NABC national first-team all-american. He's the only NESCAC player to make any of the three teams (which is a little absurd, IMO):
http://nabc.org/awards/all_america/division_III/2013_NABC_Coaches-_Division_III_All-America.pdf

I didn't remove the post, it was just a ways back.

[madzillagd]

On Friday, after the Williams game, I met up with several Amherst "Old Guard" supporters and former players.  One always goes to key football and BB games with a Williams graduate...former Williams BB player of the 60's that has gone to Salem for decades.  The conversation came up about a coaching spot opening in Div 1.  The Williams alum brought up the names of Maker and Paulsen.  The school....Northwestern of the Big 10....where the former Williams President now reign.

I don't think you are going to get any ire out of the Williams crew about the possibilities of Maker leaving.  I think the clock is ticking and it's only a matter of time until he is on his way to a D1 school in my opinion.  Whether that is this year or 3 years from now I don't think anybody knows.  He's got more dependents to feed from that coaching salary than he did when he started at Williams.     He spent 17 years as a D1 assistant and then took the opportunity to prove himself as a head coach.  The result is an .815 winning %, the best in D3, as well as 2 Final Fours and an Elite Eight.  Not going to find many resumes that are better than that in a 5 year time span. 

That being said, I know he isn't going to go to 'any' D1 school, he's got a short list of places he would like to be so don't expect him to jump ship unless it is a really great situation.  I think there's probably at least a dozen conferences he wouldn't even be interested in entertaining offers from.  I would think if Northwestern was a remote possibility that he'd have to interview there. 

I was also thinking about this topic myself watching March Madness and another school that would make total sense to me is UOP aka Pacific just down the road in Stockton.  Obviously not the same heft as Northwestern, but it does have some hoops pedigree.  Coach Maker is from Salinas, just a few hours away from Pacific.  UOP is moving back into the WCC next year so they'll be battling with St Mary's and Gonzaga for WCC supremacy.  A very high profile league out here on the West coast - probably the 2nd highest profile league behind the Pac-12 for basketball.  They made the tourney this year so they are not starting from scratch, although they will be in a much tougher conference next year.  Possibly the biggest factor is it is in Stanford's backyard and I can't think of a better way to try and land your dream job than building a winning program in their backyard and showing you can recruit the area.  All speculation of course but it keeps us entertained in the offseason. 

[jumpshot]

Amh63:

Old news--Williams has long been a net supplier of talent to the world in many professions.

[frank uible]

63: When you go to "live" games, sit among the fans of the opposition. It will contribute to your humility and in other ways to your knowledge of things not readily available from your fans.