MBB: NESCAC

[Charles]

63: When you go to "live" games, sit among the fans of the opposition. It will contribute to your humility and in other ways to your knowledge of things not readily available from your fans.

also gives you a different interpretation of bad calls.

[madzillagd]

The newest Midd recruit...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOyXKcQdT1s

[nescac1]

More on St. Amour.  I realize Vermont has some pretty weak hoops competition, but still, those stats are insane!  I imagine he will have the opportunity to contribute off the bench as a frosh given Midd's two big losses on the perimeter:

St. Amour is a 6-foot-3, 180-pound senior guard averaged 30.7 points, 11.9 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 3.4 steals per game this past season, leading the Thunderbirds (13-9) to the Division I quarterfinals. The state's returning Gatorade Boys Basketball Player of the Year, St. Amour was also named the Burlington Free Press and Vermont Basketball Coaches Association Player of the Year as a junior. He finished his prep career with 2,064 points, third in state history.

St. Amour has maintained a 4.13 GPA in the classroom. Also a soccer standout, he has volunteered locally on behalf of youth sports programs, blood-donation drives and the American Cancer Society's Relay for Life.

Two Williams-related articles ...

First, a nice look back at the season as well as the great careers of the senior class (including three trips to Salem and loads of big wins), and a brief preview of what's to come, noting the return of Rooke-Ley and expected bigger role for Kilcullen next season.  I'm sure it's tough for the Ephs to see Amherst in the title game, knowing they had a very good opportunity to make it themselves, but this year it was not to be.  Still, it was an amazing run for a team of which very little was expected, and the future looks very, very bright, led by Mayer, Epley and Wohl:

http://www.berkshireeagle.com/sports/ci_22859483/williams-mens-hoops-looks-back-run-elite-eight

And, another article on future Eph Duncan Robinson:

http://www.seacoastonline.com/articles/20130326-SPORTS-303260372

Really a very impressive recruiting haul for Williams, Amherst, Midd and Tufts this year, four teams that already looked to be contenders next season based on the talent returning.  The rich get richer ...

[madzillagd]

Bringing the recruits list forward with the updates I caught...

AMHERST RECRUITS
Jacob Nabatoff---6'8 C, Charlotte Latin HS,  Charlotte, NC
Reid Berman---  PG, New Trier, MN
Jeff Racy---6'4 G, Ridgefield HS, Ridgefield, CT

BATES RECRUITS
Connor McLeod ---6'2 G, Needham HS, MA

BOWDOIN RECRUITS


COLBY RECRUITS

CONNECTICUT COLLEGE RECRUITS
Colin Pasco---6'5 F, Suffield Academy,

HAMILTON RECRUITS
Weston Wilbur---6'4 F, Wilton HS, Wilton, CT
Alex Addesi--- 6'8 F/C, Staples HS,  Westport CT

MIDDLEBURY RECRUITS
Bryan Jones---6'1 G, Loomis Chaffee/Christian Heritage, 
Matt St. Amour --6'2 G, Missisquoi HS, VT
Liam Naughton---6'2 G, Darien HS, CT


TRINITY RECRUITS


TUFTS RECRUITS
Hunter Sabety---6'8 C, Oceanside HS, Oceanside, NY
Tarik Smith---- 6'0 PG, Cheshire Academy, Concord, NH
Drew Madsen--- 6'6 F, St. Augustine's HS, San Diego, CA 

WESLEYAN RECRUITS
Harry Rafferty---5'11 PG, Berwick/Phillips Exeter, Durham, NH
Joe Connelly---6'2 SG, Beaver Country Day, Boston, MA
Davis Reid---6'2 G, Phillips Exeter, Kansas City, MO
Joseph Kuo---6'9 C, Governors Academy

WILLIAMS RECRUITS
Duncan Robinson---6'7 F, Phillips Exeter/Governors, Newcastle, NH
Daniel Aronowitz---6'5 F, Columbus Academy, Columbus, OH
Mike Greenman--- 5'9 PG , St Augustine Prep, Linwood, NJ

[Bucket]

I usually don't dwell too much on recruiting, but I'll dip in here and say that Matt St. Amour coming to Midd is very exciting news. The kid can flat out play, and it seemed that recent rumblings indicated he was leaning toward the University of Vermont, where I believe he was offered a preferred walk-on spot. Really looking forward to watching him play the next four years.

He'll have the opportunity to contribute right away but without the pressure of having to start from day one.

[Panthernation]

More on St. Amour.  I realize Vermont has some pretty weak hoops competition, but still, those stats are insane!  I imagine he will have the opportunity to contribute off the bench as a frosh given Midd's two big losses on the perimeter:

St. Amour is a 6-foot-3, 180-pound senior guard averaged 30.7 points, 11.9 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 3.4 steals per game this past season, leading the Thunderbirds (13-9) to the Division I quarterfinals. The state's returning Gatorade Boys Basketball Player of the Year, St. Amour was also named the Burlington Free Press and Vermont Basketball Coaches Association Player of the Year as a junior. He finished his prep career with 2,064 points, third in state history.

St. Amour has maintained a 4.13 GPA in the classroom. Also a soccer standout, he has volunteered locally on behalf of youth sports programs, blood-donation drives and the American Cancer Society's Relay for Life.

We've been following St. Amour for quite some time and got a chance to see him play against Middlebury Union High School and he is incredible. He does everything on the court that you could expect and will challenge for a starting spot on the team next year. He will challenge Duncan Robinson and company as the NESCAC's most talented freshman next year.

[old_hooper]

Report: Bucknell's Dave Paulsen a 'leading candidate' for Northwestern job
www.sippinonpurple.com/2013/3/24/4140310/dave...
2 days ago

Al Skinner former BC coach is also rumored to be a strong candidate.

[frank uible]

Scores of names have surfaced as possibles for the open Northwestern job - lots of competition for a very risky opportunity.

[Panthernation]

AmherstStudent05,

Appreciate your thoughts, thanks for taking the time to read what we wrote and respond to it. You addressed a lot of different points and we'll do our best to reply to them now.

First, we do think that Aaron Toomey is overrated and that he is not the most valuable player in the NESCAC or even his team. This is an important distinction as we do think that Toomey is probably not only Amhert's most talented player, but also the NESCAC at large. This is why we believe Toomey is overrated. While he is a uniquely talented player in the conference, we don't think his talent always translates that effectively to the game itself.

Before we begin our discussion of why we think Toomey is overrated, we should acknowledge that we absolutely think Toomey was deserving of a 1st Team All-NESCAC selection and that he was one of the 5 best players in the conference this year. We should also acknowledge some of the good points raised by lefrakenstein (true shooting percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio), both of which are areas in which Toomey excels, which are among the reasons why we felt he was deserving of an 1st Team All-NESCAC selection.  Anything more than that, however, such as NESCAC Player of the Year and especially Regional Player of the Year or First Team All-American honors are beyond what he's earned. Lefrankenstein believes this constitutes an "anti-Toomey vendetta." If that's the case, so be it.

We see a very talented player who is vastly overrated by most people who seem to consider what he can do rather than what he actually does. We also feel that Player of the Year awards should weigh defensive play as heavily as offensive play. If that were the case Toomey is, as we've said, an indefensible selection for NESCAC Player of the Year. Even if you disagree with our argument for Nolan Thompson, Willy Workman (who many on this board thought should win the award) was arguably the second best defensive player in the conference and one of the 5-7 best offensive players. Even if you think Toomey was the top offensive player in the conference this year (we believe it was Michael Mayer), he isn't one of the 20 best defensive players in the conference. While defensive ability is a far more difficult metric to determine statistically than offensive ability, Workman's excellent defense combined with his unique offensive skill-set (how many other 6'6'' wings can do all of the different things Workman does?) makes him a far more valuable player than Toomey who's offensive game can be wildly inconsistent (tremendous at times, cringe-worthy at others) and whose defense detracts from his overall value. (An average defender in the NESCAC at his position is an upgrade over his defense).

We acknowledge Toomey's talents and what he does on the floor. We feel it falls far short of NESCAC and Regional Player of the Year honors as well as a spot on the NABC All-American team. That is where the gap between properly valued and overrated lies in our minds.


Now to our discussion of Williamson, Kalema and Toomey.

First, I guess I am glad you are coming around to Allen Williamson.  Too bad this couldn't have happened when you were filling out your All-NESCAC selections.  But I do understand the predicament you were in: so many Middlebury players and so few spaces to fit them all in.

Here you are simply mistaken. This is what we wrote about Williamson (and Amherst) at the very beginning of our post on All-NESCAC selections, before we made any decisions (full post here: http://sites.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2013/02/25/wrapping-up-the-nescac-season/).


"Another NESCAC season has come and gone and, as always, it didn’t disappoint. Amherst has tallied an incredible 26 straight conference wins, capping two undefeated regular seasons with NESCAC champions. What the Lord Jeffs have accomplished this year should not overlooked — running the table in this conference is incredibly difficult, and to do it in consecutive years, despite graduating their top shooters from last year, is all the more impressive. Coach David Hixon should be the unanimous decision for Coach of the Year. While Hixon had a great pair of players in Willy Workman and Aaron Toomey coming into the season, what’s remarkable is the improvement made by the core of players around them. In particular, Peter Kaasila and Allen Williamson finally played to their potential over the course of the season. After disappointing junior seasons (Kaasila averaged just 6.8 points per game and 4.4 rebounds per game, while Williamson shot 45% from the field and averaged 5.9 points per game), both rebounded with monster senior campaigns, as the pair combined to score 24.7 points per game while corralling 10.5 rebounds per contest — a marked improvement from the season before when they pulled down just 7.8 per game. Kaasila was particularly dominant in conference play, averaging 16 points per game and finishing second in the NESCAC in field goal percentage. Williamson, meanwhile, owned the conference tournament. Take a look at his MVP-worthy numbers from the tournament:

Colby: 6-10, 12 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, 1 tunrover

Tufts: 7-15, 19 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals, 3 blocks, 3 turnovers

Williams: 7-13, 15 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 (game-saving) block, 0 turnovers

Tournament Average: 53% FG, 15.3 ppg 4.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.7 bpg, 1.3 tog

It speaks to the talent of the NESCAC, and of the Lord Jeffs, that Williamson won’t even be considered for either All-NESCAC team."

Our appreciation of Williamson's game is well-documented and we have recognized the improvements he made this season from very early on. Those posters who believe that our suggestion that Kalema should play over Toomey is an insult to David Hixon will also recognize that we felt he was the unquestionable choice for Coach of the Year. We stand by that decision, and everything else we wrote in that blog post, where we named Aaron Toomey to our First Team All-NESCAC.

Or, to put it in terms you might better understand, if Middlebury loaned Mary Hardin Baylor Nolan Thompson, who do you think Thompson would guard? Williamson? Kalema?  We know what Coach Brown did.  For the overwhelming majority of the game, he put Thompson on Toomey.  Unfortunately (through no fault of Amherst's) we were deprived of a re-match of that 3OT classic, but I strongly suspect that if Midd played Amherst tomorrow, Thompson would find himself up against Toomey again. Possibly Workman. Definitely not Williamson or Kalema. But maybe Coach Brown also doesn't get it.  If Kalema is in the game instead of Toomey, who does Thompson guard? How is that better for Amherst?

As for your Kalema point, all I will say for now is that if right after the Curry game (your gutsy victory over them in the NCAA tournament, not our "farcical" competition against them earlier in the year) I posted something along the following lines -- "Congratulations on a great win, Middlebury. Tremendous effort.  You know, after watching this game, I think you guys would be a better team if Coach Brown played Jensen over Thompson" -- regular Middlebury posters would (justifiably) suspect one of two things about me: (1) I was completely uninformed about NESCAC basketball, or (2) I was just trying to get a rise out of them.

The Thompson question is an interesting one. If Coach Brown played this Amherst team again, we're pretty sure that Nolan would guard Willy Workman. Why? Well first, in the three games these two teams have played over the last two seasons, Thompson has spent the majority of his time guarding Workman. In the two games last year, Kizel drew the assignment of guarding Toomey. We discussed this on the board before the two teams played this year. You may also remember Kizel making a tremendous play late in the NESCAC championship game when he stole the ball from Toomey as he was bringing the ball into the front court and finished a three-point play when Toomey fouled him on the other end. (Though I would understand if you didn't as the play meant far more to Middlebury than Amherst at the time it happened). In the game this year, Thompson spent the first half and much of the second half guarding Toomey before switching over to guard Workman for the last 5 minutes of regulation and all 15 minutes of the three over time periods. Workman absolutely torched Middlebury in the first half before Nolan switched on to him. Given that the coach's preference has largely been for Thompson to guard Workman and the success that Workman had when Thompson didn't guard him, we're pretty confident that Nolan would defend Workman, not Toomey in this hypothetical rematch.

Now, onto our Kalema argument, which has clearly created the greatest tension on the board. First, we should address one big misconception some people have about our argument. In no way are we saying that David Kalema is a better player than Aaron Toomey. In fact, we wouldn't argue that Kalema should play over Toomey for 99% of teams. We do think, however, that this Amherst team is different.

Aaron Toomey is incredibly valuable as a player on a team when you don't have to worry about the shots he takes. If he played on a team where you can live with a supremely talented player taking a share of suboptimal shots, than Toomey has tremendous value. You can live with a 2-15 night every once in a while if he carries the team with a 7-12 night most others if his teammates were far less likely to shoot 7-12 on the shots he didn't take and go 2-15 themselves. The 2012-13 Lord Jeffs are not that team, however. The opportunity cost of a bad Aaron Toomey shot is too high given the talent on the floor around him. While the Lord Jeffs are so good that against most teams a bad shooting night from Toomey doesn't matter all that much, Toomey has the unfortunate habit of consistently playing poorly in Amherst's closest games, when the bad shots he takes have far more significant implications.

To demonstrate that point, in games that Amherst has lost (2) or won by single digits (6) Toomey is a collective 31-94 (33%) and only had one shooting performance that truly contributed to a win (his 34-point performance on 9-12 shooting in the Rhode Island College game).

If eight games is too small of a sample, when the same parameters are extended to last season the trend holds. In single digit wins (6) or losses (2)* Toomey shot 36-102 (35.3%). In single digit wins or losses over the last two seasons, Toomey is a combined 67-196 (34.2%).

*Toomey did not play in one of Amherst's 3 losses last season

Conversely, in games that Amherst has won by double digits this season (21) he is 128-267 (48%). Unless you think Toomey is worth 10-plus points to this team (and what you add offensively you have to subtract defensively), this Amherst team with a replacement-level player (but in reality, Kalema, who's better than a replacement-level player) in place of Toomey would arguably have the same, or perhaps even a better record. It is very hard to point to games that this Amherst team would have lost had Toomey not played, with the RIC game being the notable exception. It is far easier, however, to point to performances that either cost, or nearly cost his team wins.

Such a statement will undoubtedly make Amherst fans howl, and claim that this is poor reasoning that does not hold when you look at similar players on other teams. That is precisely our point, however. While Toomey helps the Lord Jeffs win big in many cases, he has also been a primary cause for some of their losses and many of their close games. Put simply, when Toomey plays well, the game is usually a blowout or close to it, and his performance has less of an impact on the team's chances of winning. When he plays poorly, however, his team often loses or wins close games. There is very little in-between. For this team, therefore, Toomey's best play is often the difference between a win and a blowout win and his poor play the difference between a close win and a possible loss.

Amherst is so talented that the Lord Jeffs rarely, if ever, need Toomey to shoot them into games. They are not so invincible, however, that Toomey cannot shoot them out of games as he has or come very close to in the past. As we said when we brought this up originally, we think that Amherst is so good, and given that they have only the National Championship game remaining, that in all likelihood this won't hurt them this year. Further, given the talented players that Amherst is losing after the season, it is very likely that next year's Amherst team will be better fit for Toomey's style of play, when the scoring options around him are less developed offensively.


Hopefully this explains some of our argument and the logic behind it. It may also explain why we tweeted about Toomey missing the free throw in that situation, though you are right that Thompson had two crucial misses in the Ithaca game as well. Finally, if you had suggested that Jensen should play over Thompson we would have considered your argument and responded objectively, as you have here for the most part. In fact, we could appreciate (and probably make) an argument that Jensen should have played more minutes in place of Thompson and/or Wolfin over the course of the season. We don't see such an argument (or the one we just made about Kalema and Toomey) as a sign of disrespect to coach Hixon or Brown. We hardly think that by making our point here that we are actually making any meaningful change to the way the game is/was/will be played. Instead, we make our points because as sports analysts/fans, we think a lot about these things and hoped we could use this forum to have an objective, reasoned discussion about them.

[Panthernation]

One final thought on this topic.  Even let's assume that I buy in to the "Midd" theory that there are two Vince Kmiecs: one who, regardless of his opposition, wakes up one morning and can't miss all day and one who wakes up and can't buy a jumper. I am honestly curious to hear from Midd posters about how Midd decided to defend Kmiec once it was clear (midway thru the first half perhaps) that they had the misfortune of having "good" Vince on their hands.  To my (admittedly untrained) eye, Middlebury did not defend Kmiec any differently throughout the course of the game, even as he was torching them for 31 points.  Now, surely they must have made some adjustment, but I would like to know what it was.  I know they never switched Thompson on him, and I am curious why not or if Midd posters think this was a mistake.  By all appearances, Kmiec fits the profile of being in Thompson's wheelhouse defensively.  Obviously, I understand that putting Thompson on Kmiec would mean taking him off the All-American Raridon, but it was clear fairly early in the game that Kmiec was the one playing like an All-American. Is there something else I am missing as to why Kmiec couldn't get the Thompson treatment?

Briefly, to answer your question about Kmiec. Middlebury had Kizel on Kmiec in the first half and Wolfin in the second half. In his post-game press conference after the game, Jeff Brown specifically addressed Kmiec's performance. This is what he said: "Kmiec had a tremendous game. We were so concerned about Raridon and Gamble that maybe we lost some focus defensively.”

I think the main reason why coach Brown didn't switch Thompson onto Kmiec was because he felt Kmiec's first-half performance was unsustainable in the second half. That's a guess on my part, but given what Kmiec did against Amherst (and I can promise you the defensive look wasn't much different, and even when left open, Kmiec still missed good looks) he wasn't too far off. It's really hard to move your best defensive player who's shutting down an All-American and have him guard a guy scoring 11 points per game who shoots 44% from the floor and 31% from beyond the arc. In some ways Middlebury challenged Vince Kmiec to beat them, and that's exactly what he did (obviously with help).

[walzy31]

The opportunity cost of a bad Aaron Toomey shot is too high given the talent on the floor around him.

There is no such thing as a bad Aaron Toomey shot.

While Toomey helps the Lord Jeffs win big in many cases, he has also been a primary cause for some of their losses and many of their close games.

Just as Kobe, Lebron, and Durant are the primary causes for their teams losses.

[middhoops]

I went out on a few cold winter nights to watch Matheiu St. Amour play this year.  He is the best long distance pure shooter I've ever seen.  And I have seen a few.
To be honest, however, he is a project.  He has no sense of playing defense.  He gave up four consecutive baseline drives to Vermont D2 players in one game I watched.  He has no upper body strength, yet. 
The kid is very smart.  He had not one other even semi-talented player on his team.  No one to pass him the ball.    At first, he can only be a shooter, but, OH what a shooter!
He joins a team with experienced guards and they'll school him well in the giant leap from tiny high schools in VT to the NESCAC.   Hopefully for Midd fans he will learn to get his shot off against the future Workmans and Thompsons who will try to shut him down 26' from the rim.

[amh07]

To demonstrate that point, in games that Amherst has lost (2) or won by single digits (6) Toomey is a collective 31-94 (33%) and only had one shooting performance that truly contributed to a win (his 34-point performance on 9-12 shooting in the Rhode Island College game).

If eight games is too small of a sample, when the same parameters are extended to last season the trend holds. In single digit wins (6) or losses (2)* Toomey shot 36-102 (35.3%). In single digit wins or losses over the last two seasons, Toomey is a combined 67-196 (34.2%).

*Toomey did not play in one of Amherst's 3 losses last season

Conversely, in games that Amherst has won by double digits this season (21) he is 128-267 (48%).

What was the shooting percentage of players other than Toomey in games when Amherst lost or won by single digits (excluding Kaasila and Pollock)?  Only if it is statistically significantly higher than Toomey's is this argument somewhat persuasive.

Notwithstanding that, any statistical argument claiming a player performed worse than another must compare those players' performance in similar circumstances.  So can anyone do the following analysis?

Compare team points scored for time when Kalema was on the floor without Toomey versus time when Toomey was on the floor without Kalema.  To make the analysis even better (and give a nod to Panthernation's point), you could control for total points scored by Amherst in the game.

My guess is that this analysis won't yield statistically significant results showing Kalema is better.  If it did, Kalema's superiority would probably be obvious to most Amherst fans and to Coach Hixon.

[middhoops]

Is anyone struck by the irony of the continued deconstruction of the league's best player?  Aaron Toomey has torched every NESCAC team a few times.  Arguing that he's not better than his understudy?  That he causes the best team in D3 to lose games?  None since Dec. 6th or so.  This is nuts.
I can't find an intellectual distinction between this and arguing that Nolan Thompson is actually not a better defender than Hunter Merryman.
D3 players, even the best, aren't D1 players for a reason.  Finding holes in Toomey's game may mean he won't be drafted by the NBA, not that he isn't a truly great player at this level.   Enough already.

[amh63]

Had a fun time looking over the D3hoops' photos of the games.  Interesting to see who was guarding who during a moment of time.   Saw #24 guarding Aaron and vice Versa.  Saw #34 assigned to Willy and vice versa.   One could say that NCC held Willy to 3 points and Amherst held a 1st team all American  to 2 points....and use the info to support whatever point one wants to make.  Me...I will take that trade off since Amherst has other/more offensive options.   Saw NCC's top defensive player, according to other posters,...# 24 helping out down low...when Aaron was on the bench?.....leading me to conclude that he had tired legs that decreased his offensive contributions...better known here as a "bad day".

To all the posters that wants to broaden by education, THANKS.
To Charles in particular....I would expect a different view...it is not an uncommon human trait for a partisan fan.
To Frank's advice...several comments and an apology to others....first, I have done that a number of times not by choice.    Went to a "CAC" tournament held in Hartford late and found myself sitting in a non Amherst section.  Happy to see  an Amherst title win, but didn't learn much.   Have gone to games in Middletown in both the old  and new gym and sat among/near Cardinal fans....few spectators and expected partisan response.   Even been to several games in Chandler to watch games when Amherst was not in town.  Amused to hear the fan shout outs when calls did not go their way.  Agreed with them sometimes on the calls.   Did get a learning experience when my host and I went to a Williams vs Conn College game in New London on a Sat. Afternoon.  sat between the two partisan crowds.  the Williams WBB team had just been upset...me being unaware, asked about the game.   Got some "Upstairs Downstairs"looks with me being considered among the downstairs crowd.  Since there is only one side to the stands...moved over to my right and had a fine time chatting with parents and Camel fans.....nice people even when I told them I was an Amherst alum.