MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

Did check out the Sporting News article.  Considering  the time, and the whole of D3, for a single credited writer to cover such a topic is taunting and as nescac1 noted, prone to errors of facts and IMHO ..judgement!  It falls into the "teaser" tag of a story/article...generating posts/ discussions as we are now having.   Will wait a bit to see what players are listed in preliminary rosters in a couple of months...when unofficial practices have occurred and maybe initial practices have started.  Then posts of squads will have a clearer picture of the season to come.
Maybe by mid October when I have a chance to talk to some people in the know when I get up to Amherst...I can offer better posts.

[madzillagd]

As N1 mentioned, I think HRL's game is completely different from Robertson so I'm expecting a much different look for how this team gets opportunities this year. Nate dominated the PG duties last year and I would expect that isn't the case this year with multiple guys starting the offense whether it be from the 1 or the 2.  If HRL starts at the 1, he's a 44% 3 pt shooter the last year he played versus Nate shooting 19% last year.  Defenses are going to have to treat them differently so even if HRL isn't the slasher Nate was he's still going to be put a lot of pressure on the defense in his own way. 

[toad22]

I don't believe that Williams will rely on a PG this year. Maker will play more of a two guard attack. The only point guard in the program is a freshman, who will likely not be ready to lead the team this year. Maker will change the way they play to accommodate this. Their center and wing play will be very strong this year. Things will look a little different, and I think, somewhat better than last year. Mayer and Epley are the two strongest returning scorers in the entire history of Williams basketball (I checked). Daniel Wohl and Hayden Rooke-Ley are extremely talented, experienced, players as well. There are at least five additional players, including three strong freshmen, also looking to get into the rotation. The naming of Williams as the #1 team by a national publication is flattering, but meaningless. Certainly Williams is one of the 10-15 teams that should be mentioned, but there are a bunch of other really good teams that should be given consideration. I think I buy nescac1s suggestion that IWU should probably be considered #1 until proven differently.

[Charles]

Did check out the Sporting News article.  Considering  the time, and the whole of D3, for a single credited writer to cover such a topic is taunting and as nescac1 noted, prone to errors of facts and IMHO ..judgement!  It falls into the "teaser" tag of a story/article...generating posts/ discussions as we are now having.   Will wait a bit to see what players are listed in preliminary rosters in a couple of months...when unofficial practices have occurred and maybe initial practices have started.  Then posts of squads will have a clearer picture of the season to come.
Maybe by mid October when I have a chance to talk to some people in the know when I get up to Amherst...I can offer better posts.

was that online and if so can you share the link? thanks!

[amh63]

Charles...on page 1006 of this board, Old Hopper brought the article up.  I went to the IWU website to read the article and it had a link to the Sporting News issue.

[madzillagd]

Nate vs. the backcourt. 

Nate was second in the league last year in assists at 5.1 a game so he definitely was the main distributor for Williams.  He played 34.1 minutes a game which was also tops on the team.  He was fifth on the team in scoring at 9.1 a game and he led the team and the league in steals at 1.7 a game.   So far, all signs point to a huge loss for Williams and a tough hole to fill.  However, Nate's strengths didn't actually translate into a dominate backcourt for Williams last year in terms of ball distribution.

If you want to look at what Williams is up against this year, you have to look at the overall backcourt.  The Ephs had a three man rotation of Robertson, Klemm and McCreary last year with some forwards that occasionally played the 2 spot as filler minutes.  Nate had 5.1 apg but the trio of guards only averaged 7 apg combined.  Compare that to Toomey, Killian, Kalema at 8.3 apg or Wolfin, Kizel, Thompson at 10.9 apg and you can see that Williams wasn't as backcourt reliant as other teams in the league for assists. 

Here's taking it one step further looking at the starters:

Williams
Backcourt APG: 6.2
Frontcourt APG: 6.6

Amherst
Backcourt APG: 6.3
Frontcourt APG: 6.2

Midd
Backcourt APG: 9.1
Frontcourt APG: 3.7

Bowdoin
Backcourt APG: 10.3
Frontcourt APG: 3.9

*I would consider some of these teams as 3 guard offenses but for this I only included the assumed 1 & 2 guards as the backcourt.

As you can see, Williams and Amherst are really balanced when it comes to assisted baskets comparing the backcourt vs. frontcourt with Williams getting more assists from its frontcourt (all returning players) than its backcourt. 

Looking at the starters again, here's what is returning this year (assuming all players are back)

Williams: 6.6 APG
Amherst: 6.3 APG
Midd: 4.8 APG
Bowdoin: 13.8 APG

Of the big three, Williams lost the most in terms of backcourt play yet they retain the most in terms of assists.  I threw Bowdoin into the mix just to see how Hurley impacts things and it's interesting to see how much more they are bringing back compared to the other squads (5.5 apg in addition to Hurley's 8.3...wow).

Until 11/15, all games will be played on paper but as of right now I'm not yet overly worried about the loss of Robertson going into the year.  I don't think there is a player in the Williams lineup that is going to give you 5.1 apg but I do believe there is a 3 or 4 guard rotation that will combine for over 7 apg.  In fact, I think this team is graduating its best passer over the last 4 years and is going to become a better passing team as a result.  That's not a knock on Nate in anyway, it's a recognition of how well-rounded these returning players are and a system that values five players being able to pass the ball.  Pretty amazing to realize that in an 11 team league, your SF and C are the 16th and 17th best passers in the league. 

The other portion of this equation is leadership which I really don't think we can speculate too much on in the preseason.  There are a lot of veteran players on this team and I think they will fill the gap of not only Nate leaving but also the other seniors as well. 

[grabtherim]

Charles...on page 1006 of this board, Old Hopper brought the article up.  I went to the IWU website to read the article and it had a link to the Sporting News issue.

http://iwusports.com/news/2013/9/4/MBB_0904133818.aspx?path=mbball

[P'bearfan]

Nate vs. the backcourt. 

madzillagd, very interesting analyis as always. 

I knew that Hurley led Bowdoin in assists but didn't realize that the returning starters combined for over 5 apg.  That's heartening as it's always a little dangerous to have so much of you're offense flowing through 1 guy - just in case he has an off night

[Panthernation]

New post (on year two of the blog): http://sites.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2013/09/09/panther-nation-year-2/

[amh63]

Panthernation...glad you are back.  Must avoid getting "addicted to" a product with the possibility that the product maybe gone next season.
Madz's...great stuff...will try to digest it all and see where it may take me.  This coming season Tufts is expected to be a contender.  Would be of interest to see how your breakdown of the Jumbos pan out.  Never thought that Tufts had strong guards or any assist leaders while watching them live in LeFrak last year.
Also, am playing with a thought that William's coach has a "system "...one that leads him to recruit players..talented players...that are interchangeable.  Will try to "flesh out" my thoughts and post them another time.

[middhoops]

Well seasoned Celtics fans remember a back court of Danny Ainge and Dennis Johnson, both good combo guards.  Maybe I'm not paying attention but I see precious little mention of Danny Wohl as a key player for the Ephs.  He can be a real force this season.  He has more tools than anyone else on the roster. 
No one can stop Mayer.  Epley will get his points.  Wohl is a nasty athletic and size match up for any D3 team.  All the concern over the lack of a 'standard' point guard is lost on me.  Williams' roster is packed with enough talent that it won't be an issue by mid-November.

[madzillagd]

Shhhh!!!  You can't have a secret weapon if he is no longer a secret.  I think everybody who follows the Ephs knows how valuable Wohl is to the team.  It is no coincidence that 2 of the 4 losses last year came when Wohl was out and the 3rd came the second game of a back to back after his return from pneumonia where he was absolutely gassed.  He does everything above average and I'm expecting him to have a very big year this year.

[amh63]

Wohl is a fine player.  Forgot that he was ill/out for awhile.  In two of the three games against Amherst, when he started/played.....both in LeFrak...he scored 8 points both times and had about the same stats...overall game the same but the minutes differed a bit.   Did he handle the ball much?

[madzillagd]

Wohl may have ended up with similar stats but I wouldn't compare the two games.  He came back from being sick and played his best game of the year against Midd but didn't have anything in the tank against Amherst the next night.  Nobody handled the ball much last year besides Robertson but you were more likely to see Wohl bring it up than Klemm if Nate wasn't handling it. 

[middhoops]

I'm interested.  Who do Amherst and Willaims fans think will step up first this season.  (PN representes my opinion about the Panthers well.)