MBB: NESCAC

[rlk]

The future has arrived.  The NBA has already launched some of the new stats being grabbed by the SportVu system. 

http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingSpeed.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25

One of your NEWMAC neighbors, Mitchell Kates of MIT, is doing his master's thesis on something related to SportVu.  From http://mitbasketball.blogspot.com/:

Kates: "I am currently in the Masters of Engineering program at MIT, and I plan on graduating in May. My thesis project works with the SportVu player tracking data that NBA teams have started collecting (under Professor Guttag). After graduation I am looking to either continue playing basketball or join a startup."

[amh63]

rik, Thanks for the follow-up post!  Why am I not surprised that a MIT BB player is working on a thesis.

[madzillagd]

IWU 94
Winona State 81
On Demand replay - http://client.stretchinternet.com/client/winona.portal#

From the CCIW boards, here's some actual basketball to watch to pass the time.  #2 IWU beat a D2 team yesterday. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

IWU 94
Winona State 81
On Demand replay - http://client.stretchinternet.com/client/winona.portal#

From the CCIW boards, here's some actual basketball to watch to pass the time.  #2 IWU beat a D2 team yesterday.

A pretty good d2 team at that.

[middhoops]

If you go to the CCIW board, the IWU guys are really pumped with the addition of two D1 transfers and are highly optimistic for their season.
That conference plays at a level that matches or exceeds ours as they have more than 3 powerhouse teams most years.  If you've never visited their board, it's worth a peek.  They post at about twice the rate we do.  Consult Vandy74 before posting there however.  He stepped in Karma quicksand.
Any way, check it out.  Those folks know a whole lot more about us that we do about them.  They are true D3 fans, through and through.

[nescac1]

IWU was missing two key perimeter players (their top shooter and one of the two D-1 transfers), who are both battling fairly serious injuries.  If those two guys return healthy, they will be even deeper and tougher.  They are definitely the team to beat in D-3 this year, although Amherst and Williams, and possibly Midd, are not too far behind.  Stevens-Point will also be very, very good as they return virtually all of their contributors, including the top player who missed most of last year with an injury, and they also add a scholarship-level transfer.  IWU and Stevens-Point are going to put up really gaudy records if they stay healthy, despite playing in two of the top three (along with NESCAC) power conferences, and no one is going to want to face them before the Final Four come tourney time. 

[toad22]

It's a pain for my team, Williams, to have the best talent it's had in a long time, and have it come in a year when IWU seemingly has a juggernaut. The season is long, and there will undoubtedly be many twists and turns, so it is best to keep first things first. Preseason games are nearly here, and the Ephs need to integrate some new players into the rotation. The top 5-6 are very clear. Mayer, Epley, and Wohl, as a package, are as strong as any Williams has had in the modern era.  Rooke-Ley is now fully recovered from the injury that kept him out a year. He looks better than ever. John Weinheimer, a 6'6" high energy guy, looks to be the fifth starter for now. However, a first year, 6'7" Duncan Robinson, is so good that I doubt that he'll be on the bench very much. He doesn't look, or play, like a NESCAC kid. He will be a force, and very soon. Ryan Kilcullen, the BC transfer, will probably back up at center. There are a host of others that could be in the rotation. These include Luke Thoreson, a 6'3 shooting guard, who seems to be bigger, stronger, faster, and more under control than his rookie year. Daniel Aronowitz, a 6' 5" first year wing/SG, with explosive potential to the basket, and an above average 3 point shot. Michael Greenman, a 5'8" point guard from South Jersey. He may be small, but he can really play. To me, this team has a great mix of veterans and younger talent. They will undoubtedly have very high goals. The primary thing they will need to address is the lack of an experienced point guard, since Nate Robertson has regrettably graduated. They are likely to play with both Hayden Rooke-Ley and Daniel Wohl operating in that capacity in different situations. Since everyone in the rotation is a good ball handler, I don't see much reason for worry. It will be surprising to me if this year's team doesn't break Williams' record for average points scored per game. I have no thought on their ability to defend. That could be a weakness.

Even with all the praise I'm heaping on the team, I'm not sure that we are the favorites to the NESCAC. Amherst, though they lose a lot, brings back Toomey, last year's POY, plus a host of others, all of whom can play. Middlebury, with Kizel, will be very tough to deal with. Tufts, even with the loss of Palleschi, look super. I thought Bowdoin looked really good last year, and if Hurley can return by January, they will be tough as well. I think it will be very important for the top teams to play well out of league, as I doubt anyone will come through league play unscathed. You can't go deep in the NCAAs if you don't get in.   

[amh63]

Interesting posts at the start of official practice time.  Talk of the strong teams in other conferences, etc, before the first games...gives me the impressions of a nervous, anxious groom ( or bride..to be fair here ) before the wedding.  Look forward, have faith in your coaches...remember Div. 1 transfers do not always mean instant impact players.  Often is the case that a recruit becomes a contributor before a transfer, IMHO.
Toad, thanks for the insights on your team, especially the FYs.  However, I was struck by your comment.."Nescac kid".   If you could elaborate a little,  I would appreciate it.  Seriously.

[toad22]

Amh63 - My comment about NESCAC kids isn't intended to be a put down. We all get used to seeing certain differences between D1 and D3 players. D1 players tend to be a little bigger, a little quicker, perhaps a little smoother. There are no hard and fast difference, but I can't remember the number of times I've thought after seeing a really good D3 kid play "If that kid was just 2 inches bigger, he'd be playing up a level or two.", or "If that kid was just a little quicker, he'd be playing at Princeton". I look at Duncan Robinson play, and I think "Why isn't that kid playing at Bucknell?". I often see D3 kids as juniors and seniors and think that they are D1 players. I have rarely, if ever, seen a D3 freshman, before his first game in college, who I think could be an impact player at D1. Of course, I could be completely wrong. No one has ever paid me for my vast basketball wisdom! 

[middhoops]

For what it's worth, toad, I'll take your Ephs.
IWU is stacked, absolutely no doubt about it.  Williams can't match their depth but you have Michael Mayer and it may be a long search to find a team that can stop him this year.  Epley, Wohl and company are going to round out a top notch D3 team.  I pick them to win the whole thing. 
Other than a tough road loss in Vermont, they're going to have a scary season.  For their opponents, that is.

[madzillagd]

amh - Spoken like somebody that didn't watch the game     I don't think IWU's success is dependent on the D1 transfers at all, in fact I think they would be a top 3 team without the transfers based on what I saw.  I don't think they need to have the transfers be stars but that of course could be the difference in the tournament when they play difficult competition.  Overall what I saw was a team that will be solid defensively, and very potent offensively.  I would not be surprised if IWU averages 25+ three point attempts a game the way they were moving the ball.  If they play solid D and make a decent % of those attempts, I expect them to be very difficult to beat in the regular season.  With their depth I would not be surprised if they were able to pull off an undefeated regular season even in the CCIW.  At most I don't see them losing more than a couple games.

Can a NESCAC team match up with them later in the year? I believe so.  Talent wise I think the players are there so it will all come down to performance.  I haven't been around as long as Toad so I'll defer to him, but I do believe this year's Williams team is better than last year with the depth they will have.  They lack in experience but the talent appears to be there for another good run.   

[middhoops]

For a good D1/D3 comparison, find Youtube vids on Duncan Robinson and Kurt Steidl.  I think most NESCAC teams probably had the two of them at or near the top of their lists a year and a half ago.  Midd was looking forward to Robinson's visit when he cancelled, having decided on Williams.  Steidl had a monster senior year (player of the year in CT) and got a scholly to Vermont where he is expected to become a star (at the lowest rung of D1 hoops).  Take a look and tell me if you can tell any substantive difference.

[P'bearfan]

I look at Duncan Robinson play, and I think "Why isn't that kid playing at Bucknell?".

There's no question that Robinson possesses a very nice combination of height, quickness and skill.  He should have an impact this year and could be a real force in the years to come.  Could he play at a D1 school - yes possibly.  But before we get carried away go back and look at the recruiting videos and you'll notice a couple of things:

- the defense he played against was pretty bad - a lot of soft zone that allowed him to pick his spots to shoot and absolutely no rotation and help defense when he came down the lane.  Robinson is good and he'll get points but the other teams were making him look even better

-He is (or was) pretty slight - 180 lbs maybe.  He may have a harder time getting through the lane (with or without the ball) and getting the position he wants when he's giving up 20 - 40lbs on the guys defeding him.

Again, I'm not knocking him at all.  I'd be surprised if he wasn't a regular contributor - even on a talented team like Williams.  I just don't think he's on a completely different level that's all.

[nescac1]

I saw one non-highlight video (it's out there if you look) of Robinson playing a full game vs. very good defenders on Choate.  At least two of the primary guys guarding him are big, very athletic guys who will be frosh on Ivy League teams, the types of frontcourt defenders you frankly rarely see in D-3.  He struggled a bit at times vs. their physicality and athleticism a bit on the defensive end (although he acquitted himself fairly well and tried hard), but Robinson was able to score a lot of points (24 in total) vs. their very aggressive defense, including several deep well-contested threes. and even added 10 boards.  I think it may take a bit of time and strength for him to be able to stop college 3's and 4's defensively and to rebound well for his height, but he should be able to score the ball right away.  It's just not easy to guard a 6'7 forward with 24-foot range who can also drive it a bit.  Every so often a guy comes in who is strangely and foolishly missed by D1 schools and who in hindsight could easily have succeeded early on at the D-1 level, some guys because of senior-year injuries (Nogelo, Mayer, Workman), some because of very late growth / physical development (Sharry, I think he also may have had an injury to boot although not sure about that), some because of concerns of being as Toad says a few inches short for their position as well as playing in under-the-radar programs (Toomey, Olsen, Whittington, Wang all qualify on both fronts).  I think Robinson certainly belongs in the same mix as that group as a college prospect, with the possible exception of Nogelo who to me immediately stood out above other NESCAC guys.  Of course, every single player on that list improved immensely over four years, so even with that level of ability, nothing comes easy and it takes a lot of hard work, good fortune with health, and so on.   If Robinson can have roughly the same impact as a first-year as Toomey did for Amherst, I will be very happy. 

[old_hooper]

Amherst assistant coach Kevin Hopkins is in the new Vince Vaughn movie Delivery Man to be released at the end of the month.  Vaughn plays David Wozniak in the movie who learns that as a sperm donor 20 years ago with the alias "Starbuck" he has fathered over 533 children. When a large group of them petition the sperm bank to reveal his identity, David has to decide whether or not to come forward.

Kevin is Andrew Johansson in the movie an NBA player and presumably one of the 533 children.  Do search for...Wizards featured in 'Delivery Man'. Click on the You Tube trailer on this page.  There are several trailers for the movie but this one has Kevin in it.