MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

So many posts on Coach Hixon.  The Amherst website feature on the game has photos and a video of the Babson game and afterwards with Hixon making comments of the moment.  You will find out who is really the toughest person in his family circle   Good stuff on the game and Hixon's  record moment from posters.  Thanks!
Daoustian....liked your touch of humor but am afraid you aroused the EHPs and provided some folder for the walls/halls of Williams before the game in Willy Town

[Old Guy]

Last year he was great coming off the bench and things loosened up a bit and the game was played differently than when the starters were on the floor. madzillagd

Kalema has been very effective against Middlebury in the past. When he came off the bench (for a while, along with Williamson!) the pace of the game accelerated. He was a weapon, so quick. Midd had a terrific backcourt but had trouble guarding him.

The sixth man at Middlebury, first guy off the bench, that I think had the most impact in recent years was Jamal Davis '11, a slender 6'5" forward who could guard anyone on the floor, 1-5. The defensive intensity picked up when he came in. As with Kalema, Jamal affected the rhythm of play. He came off the bench as a senior. His senior year ShaSha Brown was killing us on the high pick and roll - we couldn't guard him. Jamal came in with his quick feet and long arms and shut him down. We wiped out a double-digit second-half deficit to win by eight.

James Jensen played a similar role last year. I had him reprising that role this year, as a senior, coming in after five or six minutes and picking up the pace with his energy and athleticism. Shows how much I know. He's thriving as a starter, once he got in the line-up (after injuries).

This issue of starter vs first-player-off-the-bench is an interesting tactical one.

[nescac1]

Old Guy, I recall Jamal Davis well.  He absolutely killed Williams on both ends.  While offensively-challenged at times, there has never been and likely will never be a NESCAC team that could put a better defensive lineup on the floor than Midd could in 2010: Locke, Sharry, Davis, Thompson, and Edwards.  Three eventual defensive POYs and Davis who could have been, plus another great shot-blocker -- incredible size at every position.  That Midd team collectively combined for an amazing 430 blocks plus steals in in 29 games, while limiting opponents to 37 percent from the field and 30 percent from three.  By way of comparison, Amherst's title team last year (also very good defensively, obviously) combined for 391 blocks and steals in 32 games, and limited opponents to 40 percent shooting and 33 percent from three. 

Early Decision results are in at NESCAC schools.  Seems like a VERY small number of recruits have been announced so far in NESCAC.  Usually there are a slew of names floating around by this point.  All I have seen so far is Adam Kroot going to Williams, Johnny McCarthy headed to Amherst, and Tony Karalekas headed to Colby.  Perhaps a bunch have just yet to be made public; no matter what, this year's frosh group will be a tough act to follow. 

[Bucket]

Early Decision results are in at NESCAC schools.  Seems like a VERY small number of recruits have been announced so far in NESCAC.  Usually there are a slew of names floating around by this point.  All I have seen so far is Adam Kroot going to Williams, Johnny McCarthy headed to Amherst, and Tony Karalekas headed to Colby.  Perhaps a bunch have just yet to be made public; no matter what, this year's frosh group will be a tough act to follow.

PantherNation tweeted this last week:

First two members of Middlebury Class of 2018: Nick Tarantino (6'7" BB&N, Boston) and Jack Gale (6'5" University School, SF).

[nescac1]

Gotcha, Bucket.  Makes sense that Midd would look to add some size, because with this year's recruiting class, the Panthers seem to be basically all set at guard for the next four years ...

[AmherstStudent05]

Thought provoking post as usual, OG.  I agree that the starter/off the bench discussion is an interesting one.  I recall the 2000 Michigan St. team that one a national championship.  I believe Mo Peterson was their leading scorer (Mateen Cleaves was still their best player) even though he never started.  Could never tell if this was the result of Coach Izzo being stubborn or not wanting to demote an original starter or if there really is something to some players doing best when they can provide a spark off the bench.  After all, I guess the thing that really counts is not who starts, but who plays the most minutes and who is on the floor at crunch time.

Slightly related:  This year, Coach Mills would routinely take out our starting QB, Max Lippe, for a couple of series during the game.  The coaching staff evidently believed that Lippe was at his best when he could start the game and play a few series, then observe the action from the sidelines for a series or two, before resuming the laboring oar for the rest of the game.  Unusual to be sure, but, hey, whatever works.

As I think I have said before, I would really like a "Sixth Man of the Year" award to be included with all the other year end All-NESCAC selections.  Think it would be fun.  Does anyone know of other conferences that do this?

As for sixth men at Amherst that have had the most impact in recent years, without looking at the stats, Kevin Hopkins in 2007 and John Bedford in 2004 are the two that immediately come to mind.  Hopkins really developed into a very solid 5 by the middle of his junior year and really made huge contributions to that title run.  Hixon kept O'Shea in the starting lineup even though it had become clear that Hopkins was probably a better option (recall Pat C asking Coach about this in an interview during or before the 2007 tournament).  Bedford was a very highly regarded recruit who didn't play much as a freshman in 2003, but really started to come into his own in 2004 playing behind the sharpshooter John Donovan.

The two other sixth men I most remember are Folan and Whittington from Williams.  I think we have talked a lot about Folan before.  Was Williams's best player, got hurt and missed a lot of time and then had to come off the bench in 2003, a role he fulfilled quite well unfortunately.  I always thought that team's best lineup was Crotty, Cole, Abba, Folan, and Coffin.  Anyway, Folan obviously was on the floor during the critical minutes of crunch time.  As for Whittington, did he make an All-NESCAC team from the bench in 2010? If so, has anyone else done this?

[middhoops]

All this talk of 6th men, which I guess I started by mistake, reminds me of the broader topic of "the bench".
Having watched most of the teams in the NESCAC play a few times in the early season, I deem my Panthers to be only the 4-5th most talented if gauged by their starting unit.
The best chance Middlebury has, in my most humble opinion, is that with the exception of Joey Kizel, the next 10-11 guys can all contribute at a fairly even and constant level.  In a year where fouls are, so far, being called inconsistently but often in volume, this could matter in big games.  Playing 'physically' is possibly in the interest of a team with more fouls to give.
I offer this idea for NESCAC teams only in consideration.  Please don't remind me of RPI and frantic rotation method.  I like college hockey but prefer to keep my sports separate.

[Panthernation]

Having watched most of the teams in the NESCAC play a few times in the early season, I deem my Panthers to be only the 4-5th most talented if gauged by their starting unit.
The best chance Middlebury has, in my most humble opinion, is that with the exception of Joey Kizel, the next 10-11 guys can all contribute at a fairly even and constant level.

It all depends on what the starting lineup looks like down the stretch. If you're looking at a 5 of Kizel, St. Amour, Merryman, Jensen and Daley, then Middlebury's starting 5 is as talented as any NESCAC team not named Williams. Middlebury's depth is unquestionably a strength, but its most talented starting 5 matches up with the NESCAC's top units, too.

[nescac1]

If Hurley can return this year healthy, I'd rank Midd's starting five fourth, otherwise, third.  I think Toomey, Kalema, Killian, Green and George (assuming George continues to start) is, by significantly stronger right now than Midd's starting give, as I'd take Toomey over Kizell, Kalema (as a senior) over St. Amour (as a frosh, different story maybe if St. Amour had another year or so of experience), Green over Merryman, and George (or even Pollack) over Daley, while Jensen vs. Killian is roughly a wash.  Toomey and Kizell are both elite scorers and distributors, but Toomey is the more unstoppable of the two, Kalema is not the shooter St. Amour is but is a much better defender and creator at this point, Green and Merryman are both great shooters but Green is tougher to stop going to the hole, and George and Pollack are both superior to either Daley or Roberts as defenders, rebounders, and interior finishers, and Daley's stellar shooting touch is not enough to compensate for that.  Killian and Jensen are similar -- both are superior glue guys, very long and tough defenders, and strong rebounders.  Killian offers more perimeter offense, and Jensen more interior offense. 

Bowdoin I think even has a very slight edge as Swords has a big edge over Daley, Pieri vs. Jensen is close but probably Pieri, Madlinger vs. Merryman, again close but if an edge, it goes to Madlinger, Mathias vs. St. Amour is close, and Kizell over Hurley, but Hurley is certainly no slouch. 

Thus with starting fives, I'd go 1. Williams, 2. Amherst, 3. Bowdoin or Midd, depending on whether Hurley plays.   In terms of bench strength, 1. Midd, 2. Tufts (if the Jumbos get healthy), 3. Amherst, 4. Williams, 5. Bowdoin.  Lack of depth is THE big issue for Amherst, Williams and Bowdoin this year ... of course if certain young players develop over the course of the year, the depth issues could be mitigated.  Midd's second unit of Brown, two out of Daley/Roberts/Churchill, Nidenburg, Bullock and Huff is more capable than any other NESCAC second unit.  If Sinnickson returns at some point, the difference is even more pronounced. 

[Bucket]

If Hurley can return this year healthy, I'd rank Midd's starting five fourth, otherwise, third.  I think Toomey, Kalema, Killian, Green and George (assuming George continues to start) is, by significantly stronger right now than Midd's starting give, as I'd take Toomey over Kizell, Kalema (as a senior) over St. Amour (as a frosh, different story maybe if St. Amour had another year or so of experience), Green over Merryman, and George (or even Pollack) over Daley, while Jensen vs. Killian is roughly a wash.  Toomey and Kizell are both elite scorers and distributors, but Toomey is the more unstoppable of the two, Kalema is not the shooter St. Amour is but is a much better defender and creator at this point, Green and Merryman are both great shooters but Green is tougher to stop going to the hole, and George and Pollack are both superior to either Daley or Roberts as defenders, rebounders, and interior finishers, and Daley's stellar shooting touch is not enough to compensate for that.  Killian and Jensen are similar -- both are superior glue guys, very long and tough defenders, and strong rebounders.  Killian offers more perimeter offense, and Jensen more interior offense. 

Bowdoin I think even has a very slight edge as Swords has a big edge over Daley, Pieri vs. Jensen is close but probably Pieri, Madlinger vs. Merryman, again close but if an edge, it goes to Madlinger, Mathias vs. St. Amour is close, and Kizell over Hurley, but Hurley is certainly no slouch. 

Thus with starting fives, I'd go 1. Williams, 2. Amherst, 3. Bowdoin or Midd, depending on whether Hurley plays.   In terms of bench strength, 1. Midd, 2. Tufts (if the Jumbos get healthy), 3. Amherst, 4. Williams, 5. Bowdoin.  Lack of depth is THE big issue for Amherst, Williams and Bowdoin this year ... of course if certain young players develop over the course of the year, the depth issues could be mitigated.  Midd's second unit of Brown, two out of Daley/Roberts/Churchill, Nidenburg, Bullock and Huff is more capable than any other NESCAC second unit.  If Sinnickson returns at some point, the difference is even more pronounced.

Excellent analysis. My only quibble is that I think you might be underestimating Jensen a little bit. He has looked terrific—explosive, springy, savvy. But otherwise I think you're spot on.

[Panthernation]

If Hurley can return this year healthy, I'd rank Midd's starting five fourth, otherwise, third.  I think Toomey, Kalema, Killian, Green and George (assuming George continues to start) is, by significantly stronger right now than Midd's starting give, as I'd take Toomey over Kizell, Kalema (as a senior) over St. Amour (as a frosh, different story maybe if St. Amour had another year or so of experience), Green over Merryman, and George (or even Pollack) over Daley, while Jensen vs. Killian is roughly a wash.  Toomey and Kizell are both elite scorers and distributors, but Toomey is the more unstoppable of the two, Kalema is not the shooter St. Amour is but is a much better defender and creator at this point, Green and Merryman are both great shooters but Green is tougher to stop going to the hole, and George and Pollack are both superior to either Daley or Roberts as defenders, rebounders, and interior finishers, and Daley's stellar shooting touch is not enough to compensate for that.  Killian and Jensen are similar -- both are superior glue guys, very long and tough defenders, and strong rebounders.  Killian offers more perimeter offense, and Jensen more interior offense. 

Perhaps this is too literal a reading of Middhoops' point, but the distinction here is talent, not production. On the talent front, I'd agree that Toomey has a slight edge over Kizel, but can't agree on Kalema over St. Amour (if it's talent we're discussing that's a big win for St. Amour) and think that Daley and George cancel each other out, while Green edges Merryman and Jensen edges Killian.

Again, this is somewhat silly because all that ultimately matters is production (and in that case, the argument for Amherst's starting 5 is stronger, which is what I gathered from your response, nescac1), but my point was that a Middlebury starting 5 of Kizel, St. Amour, Merryman, Jensen and Daley has as much talent (again the question is whether it is realized or not) as any non-Williams team in the conference.

[nescac1]

I'll grant you that St. Amour probably has more hoops talent than Kalema (who has improved by leaps and bounds since he was a lightly-recruited first year player).  But have you SEEN David George play?  There is no way that Daley (who has very nice offensive skills, but simply doesn't have the potential to impact the game on both ends like George) is in George's league as a basketball talent.  That is no knock on Daley, who has the potential to be an all-NESCAC guy with a lot of hard work on certain aspects of his game.  George, though, has talent you simply don't see in Division 3 and has the potential to be a nationally elite player sooner rather than later.  Amherst has three guys in the starting line-up who are obvious all-American talents, one of whom is one of the two best players in the country right now, the other who is going to be an absolutely dominant (Andrew Locke-level dominant, only with more offensive potential) player in NESCAC.  As someone who generally appreciates how undervalued defense is, George's defensive talents (and he is just barely scratching the surface so far this year) should be particularly valued by you ....

[Panthernation]

But have you SEEN David George play?  There is no way that Daley (who has very nice offensive skills, but simply doesn't have the potential to impact the game on both ends like George) is in George's league as a basketball talent.  That is no knock on Daley, who has the potential to be an all-NESCAC guy with a lot of hard work on certain aspects of his game.  George, though, has talent you simply don't see in Division 3 and has the potential to be a nationally elite player sooner rather than later.

I've watched George play a couple of times this season. This is not a knock on him or his defensive abilities. He is already a tremendous shot blocker, particularly on the back side. His ability to recover on players that have inside position on him is remarkable. I don't feel this way because I undervalue George, but rather because the way you described George: "[he] has talent you simply don't see in Division 3 and has the potential to be a nationally elite player sooner rather than later," is exactly how I would describe Matt Daley to someone who hadn't seen Middlebury play before. I would add the caveat that he hasn't demonstrated he can produce like that on a consistent basis (which George has), but we're discussing talent, not production. And judging by that criteria, Daley is very much in George's league and, I would argue, close to his equal.

[lefrakenstein]

I wouldn't sleep on a healthy Tufts squad in this conversation. Sabety, Ferris, Haladyna, Firempong, Smith/Cohen/Spadaford is a pretty strong group. If you threw Palleschi in there it would have been maybe the second best starting five in the conference. As it is, I still hope they can get healthy and make some noise during the conference season.

[nescac1]

End of first semester first-year watch:

(1) Duncan Robinson -- has pulled away from the field as he increased his production to compensate for Michael Mayer's absence.  His current stat line is fantastic for any player, let alone a frosh: 15.5-7.1-2.4, shooting 57/42/96, plus 1.4 bpg and .5 spg.  He is also leading a strong Williams team in MPG.  What is most impressive to me is that he has yet to force the issue on offense, as reflected in his tremendous 2.4 assist-to-turnover ratio; if anything, could stand to be more aggressive on offense, but with Mayer coming back, there is only one ball to go around. He's equally effective whether spotting up, driving (surprisingly quick with the ball for his size), or cutting to the basket off the ball, and has been above-average on defense, making several highlight-reel blocks.

(2) Hunter Sabety -- continues to post impressive numbers (13.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.3 bpg, shooting 63/60) as he has moved into a leading role by necessity for a Tufts team decimated by injuries.  While his insane early-season efficiency has tailed off just a bit, he is still posting numbers that would make him NESCAC ROY most seasons.  His minutes are sometimes limited by foul trouble and has only two assists on the season, so those are his main areas to improve upon as the season progresses.   

(3) David George -- just a hair behind Sabety based on production-to-date (9.8 ppg, 7.0 ppg, .6 apg, 2.6 bpg and .5 spg, shooting 57/54), but has as much upside as any player who has come into NESCAC in a long time.  You just don't see guys who are a legit 6'8 with a massive wingspan and great hops and agility at the D-3 level very often.  He has some areas to work on: playing starter minutes of late has shown that he needs to add strength and stamina in the off-season, and right now he is a better help defender than a one-on-one post defender (very typical for a young, slender big guy).  He has a nice mid-range touch already, and is a terrifying finisher, but needs to add a post-up game to his arsenal, and also work on free throw shooting given the high rate at which he draws fouls.  Still, he has the look of someone who will be a multi-year first-team NESCAC player and a future all-American, based on early returns.

(4) Harry Rafferty --  his shooting had dropped off in recent weeks (35/26/86) but no first-year player has been asked to do more, and he has already proven that he is a solid starting NESCAC point guard with potential for far more.  His overall numbers are strong at 12.6-2.8-2.6 plus better than 1 spg.  Gets benefit of the doubt over Smith and St. Amour (for now) because he has a bit less help around him, but in danger of dropping if he doesn't reverse his recent cold-streak. 

(5) Tarik Smith -- number five with a bullet as he is another guy whose PT has benefited from injuries to other Tufts players.  averaging 10.5-1.4-3.5 plus 1 spg with tremendous shooting, (48/45/83) and a very impressive assist to turnover ratio (better than 2-1).  Just a tremendous recruiting class for the Jumbos, and a bright future for the team once it gets healthy. 

(6)  Matt St. Amour -- finally had his big break-out game and his numbers are starting to look more impressive (10.6-3.9-1.2, shooting 35/34/87).  Offense seems ahead of defense right now, although he is not a liability on either end.  The fact that he is starting for Midd and is now playing big minutes each game speaks for itself.  With a few more games like his last one, and improved two-point shooting percentage, he will break into the top 4, and Rafferty/Smith/St. Amour are closely-grouped right now. 

(7) Jake Brown -- has been very up-and-down.  He has shown flashes of elite play-making talent but also has struggled at times with fouls and turnovers.  He will eventually be a stellar starting point guard, but it looks like eventually will likely be next year.  His numbers (4.7-2.8.-3.8, shooting 42/20/55) are modest but perhaps underestimate his impact, and he is leading first-year players in assists.  Will need to work on his shooting across the board if he wants to make a bigger impact down the road.   

(8 and 9) Marcus and Malcolm Depeche: like George and Sabety, both are athletic big guys with a high upside, but don't quite have either's skills or truly eye-popping combo of length and athleticism.  Will form a potent interior duo sooner rather than later, but likely a year away from a major impact.  If you could combine them into one guy (Malcus Depeche?  Marcolm?) their combined stats would be competitive with George or Sabety: 13 ppg, 9 rpg, 2.7 bpg.  Bates has star players at the 1, 2, and 3 this year, so how quickly they develop will in large part determine how competitive Bates is this season. 

(10) Ed Odunkego -- despite early productivity for some reason he has been demoted to the bench by Trinity and played few minutes as of late. Still averaging an impressive 9.6-8.4.  Perhaps it is an injury, or perhaps it is because he still has yet to register an assist in his young career, vs. 22 turnovers!  Clearly has a lot of talent, however.

Others to watch: Reid Berman -- really like his game and he will be a three-year starter for Amherst.  Very, very crafty with the ball, excellent creator off the dribble, reminds me of Connor Meehan as a guy who is really hard to keep out of the lane, but can he score anything besides a layup?  Christien Wright -- another guy who has seen early PT and shown flashes of ability for Amherst.  Dan Aronowitz and Mike Greenman -- have both shown flashes of very strong play (in particular Aronowitz who posted one monster game for the Ephs), but neither has played consistent enough minutes to show what they can do.  Both will play much bigger roles next season and either could end up as one of the top 10 players from this class.  Zuri Pavlin -- leading NESCAC rookies in rebounding but is that a case of elite rebounding talent, the fact that Conn College has no one else on the interior, or somewhere in between?  His overall numbers look good, but Conn is bad and has played a very weak schedule, so the jury is still out on whether he should be ranked above Odunkego and the Delpeches.  Drew Madsen, Tufts -- overshadowed by Sabety and Smith but yet another talented Tufts first-year.