MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

Back home...travel tires me out these days.  In any case had to edit my last post, written when I was tired....hope it is clearer.   Some responses and random thoughts.
AncientSOH...yes your comment on Killian wrt to me is correct.  Yes it is strange that an Amherst fan likes Mayers footwork    Mayer's play to date is in my opinion Not about his footwork.
Amherst05....before you go buy a new computer...see if your carrier can improve your data input.  Have had choppy reception too.  An expect suggest that  it could be a broadband issue...too many users online.  My problems were due to carrier problems.
Middhoops...keep on predicting!  Always interested in reading your analyses....just not putting any coins of the realm based on your predictions .
My weekend host and I are big fans of UConn WBB..good BB play.  In response to questions on ref foul calls in games...under the recent emphasizes, etc.... HBC Gino stated that his players just needs to adjust their play to how the refs are calling it ...in the game..on this day.  In D3 games, the officiating crews often require the players to make adjustments during halftime.  It is most interesting to me to see coaches...and fans...try to change the impact of the refs on the game.
Vandy74...your post inspired this last comment...game atmosphere.   Williams vs Amherst games always have a festival atmosphere.  LeFrak had a full house, even with the additional bench seating.  Still it was quieter...fewer students in the stands and none sitting two deep on the floor.  Williams fans were up, Amherst fans were quieter, it seems.  The purple and white curtain on the banner side was removed...different...and could have lessen the noise.  There was a women hockey game going on and there were men's and women's swinming contests going on next door....Williams vs Amherst. Saw Big Pete Kassila's parents in the stands as well as Willy Workman's parents.  A number of hardcore former Amherst alums/players..out of town old alums in the stands.  Many WBB alums returning...party afterwards it seems as well as out of town parents of current players.  Hard time to find parking on a rainy day.

[madzillagd]

Didn't see any games this weekend as I celebrated the wife's birthday in Bodega Bay and the wine country. I'd recommend Sonoma to anyone that needs to get over a loss, takes just a matter of minutes    Not too surprised by any of the comments. Halfway through the season we are seeing exactly what I thought we would see with this mix.

[NEhoops]

Old Guy, or anyone else who watched both Mid games. I'd be interested to get your take on Tufts and Bates, and where those three teams might finish up in league play. My guess is that those three along with Bowdoin will occupy the 3-6 slots when its all said and done. Not to discount the undefeated Polar Bears, but I've seen them play and at this point don't think they will beat Amh or Wil. 

[Bucket]

My courtside take on Bates and Tufts, based on their respective games against Middlebury:

Bates has the better team; Tufts the better players.

With the inside-out games of Sabety and the duo of Firempong and Ferris, to go along with Haladyna, Tufts has so many ways to hurt you offensively, with interior bulk and lateral quickness on the perimeter while defending.

For Bates: I see Safford as Ferris's equal, talent-wise. Mattarrazzo is very good; so, too, is Boornazian. But I give a slight edge to Ferris-Firempong-Haladyna over Safford-Mattarrazzo-Boornazian. And even if the slight edge went the other way, Sabety is far more imposing than Delpeche (as solid as Delpeche was against Midd).

So why do I think Bates is better? For starters, Safford has a motor and presence that neither of the Jumbos guards possess. Not athleticism; motor and presence. But most importantly: coaching. Bob Shelden can't hold a candle to John Furbush. I guarantee you: if John Furbush had been coaching Tufts on Sunday, he would have found a way to get Hunter Sabety more than one second-half shot. (And I mean this as no sign of disrespect to Jeff Brown's defensive adjustments and the execution thereof by Jack Roberts and Matt Daley. They were brilliant. And they went uncountered.)

If the two teams played one time, Tufts could very well blow out Bates. (Though obviously I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Bates won in a one-off game.) But play 10 times? Bates wins 6 or 7 of them.

I'll record my thoughts on Middlebury-Tufts in due time. I wanted to answer this question first. And I do reiterate that I base this opinion on these teams' respective games against Middlebury this weekend (and any past impressions I've gathered of said coaching staffs and players during the past few years).

[P'bearfan]

Not to discount the undefeated Polar Bears, but I've seen them play and at this point don't think they will beat Amh or Wil.

It's probably not a big surprise, but I'm hoping you're wrong about Bowdoin 

[grabtherim]

Not to discount the undefeated Polar Bears, but I've seen them play and at this point don't think they will beat Amh or Wil.

It's probably not a big surprise, but I'm hoping you're wrong about Bowdoin 

Have to agree, Williams and Amherst only losses in conference or in the Little 3 will probably be to each other.  I simply think they have too many weapons and create matchup nightmares for every other NESCAC squad.  If form holds, both are locks for the tournament, and under that scenario would the NESCAC get a 3rd team in?  I would say yes, if Bowdoin stays in the top 25.  Given the way the season has gone for Midd and the hole they find themselves in, I don't see them going to the dance after five straight years of punching a ticket with anything less than a stunning upset win/automatic bid in the tournament.   

[nescac1]

I think Bowdoin is looking very good for the tourney.  The P'Bears could lose to Williams, Amherst, Midd, one other team, AND in the NESCAC tourney, and that would put them at five losses total.  From NESCAC, that likely gets them in (though not necessarily a lock -- I think Colby once missed with 5 or 6 losses, but I also think the tourney may have expanded a bit since then).  If they lose to Williams, Amherst and one other team, plus a loss in the conference tourney, they are a virtual lock.  And if they pull off the upset vs. Williams on Friday or vs. Amherst later in the year, neither of which is inconceivable, it would take a monumental collapse for them to be left out.  They have a few very solid regional wins already which will really help their regional ranking: Western Conn, Bates, Babson. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think Bowdoin is looking very good for the tourney.  The P'Bears could lose to Williams, Amherst, Midd, one other team, AND in the NESCAC tourney, and that would put them at five losses total.  From NESCAC, that likely gets them in (though not necessarily a lock -- I think Colby once missed with 5 or 6 losses, but I also think the tourney may have expanded a bit since then).  If they lose to Williams, Amherst and one other team, plus a loss in the conference tourney, they are a virtual lock.  And if they pull off the upset vs. Williams on Friday or vs. Amherst later in the year, neither of which is inconceivable, it would take a monumental collapse for them to be left out.  They have a few very solid regional wins already which will really help their regional ranking: Western Conn, Bates, Babson.

Their SOS isn't great.  If they have five losses, with no signature wins, that could be a bubble team.  The committee prioritizes different things in different years, but SOS can be trouble (especially if it drops them down a few spots on the regional ranking).

[AmherstStudent05]

  Given the way the season has gone for Midd and the hole they find themselves in, I don't see them going to the dance after five straight years of punching a ticket with anything less than a stunning upset win/automatic bid in the tournament.

With games against Bowdoin, Amherst, & Williams still to play, I think Midd still has a reasonable chance of salvaging a Pool C selection.  They have definitely put themselves in a tough spot -- no argument there -- but there is still plenty of basketball left to play and the pecking order at the top of the NESCAC has still yet to be established (and may well still include Middlebury near, or even at the top of the heap).  Depending on how Midd responds over these next two weeks (they have been nothing if not unpredictable so far this year), I am not sure that Midd will be such a big underdog against either Bowdoin or Williams (both games in Pepin).  At the moment, winning in LeFrak would seem like a tall order for the Panthers, but that game is more than a month away and Amherst and Midd could both experience changes in fortune by then.  Still lots of basketball to play.

In typical Midd fashion, just as their season seemed to be slipping away (after the first half against Tufts), the Panthers staged an epic rally to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  I agree that they have little margin for error at this point (at least as far as Pool C is concerned), but I wouldn't count them out yet (though I do wonder if the braintrust behind the Road to Salem series has had to scramble to keep the script current).

One other thing to think about.  Last year Middlebury entered the NCAA Tournament with very few quality wins as a result of a relatively weak non-conference schedule and a down year in the NESCAC.  This year, Midd, to its credit, played a much stronger non-conference schedule.  Unfortunately for them, it is not clear that that choice will pay dividends.  Alvernia has kind of fallen off the map here (though, like Midd, they still have time to get things in order) leaving Midd's win at Skidmore as its seemingly best win of the season.  But, again, with games against Williams, Bowdoin and Amherst ahead of them, the Panthers still have an opportunity to put together a pretty impressive resume.

[amh63]

For those interested.....Amherst has an away game in Middletown, Ct. tonight at 7PM.  Website links on Amherst website and on D3hoops.  Though the game is an non conference counting one....hope the team is focused for it prior to the weekend battles.

[amh63]

Amherst beats Wesleyan in CT., 76-62.  It was a game that Green and Toomey were off from outside but both scored from the foul line as the Cardinals fouled and fouled even when the game was out of reach.   The Cardinals took an early lead.....just as the Ephs did on Sat. but it was catch up for the remainder of the game.   Very uneven calls by the refs as Pollack and Toomey sat with fouls.  The announcer pointed out that Wes's HBC used his timeouts to try to keep the game within reach and was out with about 4-5 minutes to go.  Meanwhile, Coach Hixon did not call a timeout until the last minute when Toomey was called for his 4th in front of the Amherst bench...an offensive foul at that.  Oh well, the refs are still having a time trying to figure the new rules out.
Conner Gach came in and hit all his outside shots...9 points and played solid defense.  Nabatoff entered when Pollack and George sat.  George is learning what it takes to play the low post against experience bigger/heavier front line "CAC" 5's.
This was a sort of "Lunch Bucket" type of game, imo....for Amherst...very workman like.  Will take the win, in any case and discription . 
Just checked the official stats....not the live stats that had Toomey with 40 minutes in the game.  Seems my foul count is wrong wrt to Toomey and with Pollack.  Announcer may have confused the names.  Oh well, my bad.  The Wes. broadcast pix was great, but had a hard time picking up the audio.  No volume control on the screen available.

[NEhoops]

Bucket, great recap of Middlebury's action this past weekend. The way you describe Safford (presence and motor) is spot on.

Does anyone know the NESCAC teams by year to make the NCAA tournament since they have been allowed to play in the postseason, including their regular season/conference records? My question is if Bowdoin doesn't finish third in the conference would they still have a chance to get in?

[Vandy74]

Does anyone know the NESCAC teams by year to make the NCAA tournament since they have been allowed to play in the postseason, including their regular season/conference records? My question is if Bowdoin doesn't finish third in the conference would they still have a chance to get in?

I've had little luck finding D3 post season data archived in any sport beyond the Final Four participants but I think most schools archive their seasons back to 1999-2000 which would let you find out most of what you want to know.  Only 4-5 years would be omitted. 

AmherstStudent05.....I appreciate your opinion regarding Middlebury's post season chances.  I agree that they can still play themselves right back into the picture.  The second half they played against Tufts is exactly what they should be able to do the rest of the way and that caliber of play can beat anyone left on their schedule.  As good as Amherst is don't forget last season's game between the schools and the feelings that will carry over from it.  If the Panthers did in fact right the ship Sunday afternoon that finale of the regular season should also have a lot at stake for both teams.

[magicman]

Does anyone know the NESCAC teams by year to make the NCAA tournament since they have been allowed to play in the postseason, including their regular season/conference records? My question is if Bowdoin doesn't finish third in the conference would they still have a chance to get in?

I've had little luck finding D3 post season data archived in any sport beyond the Final Four participants but I think most schools archive their seasons back to 1999-2000 which would let you find out most of what you want to know.  Only 4-5 years would be omitted. 

AmherstStudent05.....I appreciate your opinion regarding Middlebury's post season chances.  I agree that they can still play themselves right back into the picture.  The second half they played against Tufts is exactly what they should be able to do the rest of the way and that caliber of play can beat anyone left on their schedule.  As good as Amherst is don't forget last season's game between the schools and the feelings that will carry over from it.  If the Panthers did in fact right the ship Sunday afternoon that finale of the regular season should also have a lot at stake for both teams.

Vandy and NEHoops,

Here's a website from the NCAA that allows you to go back to 1933 and get year end records. It's not like the records that Vandy mentions that most schools archive but it should help. 

http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/careersearch

When the website comes up you need to click on school (they list all schools from all divisions), then the year that you want, then the sport. Then click on search. When that page comes up you will see the schools name. Click on that and the pages that I mention below will download. Only 2 pages. Many times the sheets are handwritten or typed with a typewriter (what's that ) Sometimes they are done by the SID sometimes by the Coach. Sometimes they can be quite messy with poor handwriting. These were year end reports that the NCAA required the teams to fill out and send in. Some schools were good and followed instructions well. Other schools, not so good.


You can get the team schedule, won-lost record (from which you can probably determine post-season play or not) conference record, and a stat sheet showing who was on the team and a number of relevant stats for each player.

As a for instance I pulled up Amherst from 1993-94 and it shows they were 22-5 that year, with a 9-3 conference record in the NESCAC. The final games they played were against Worcester Tech, a win, Brandeis, a win, Colby, a win, Franklin & Marshall, a win down there, and Lebanon Valley, a loss also on F&M's court. I'm guessing, since I assume that there wasn't a conference tournament back then, that the Colby game was the final regular season contest and that the LJ's went to Lancaster, home of F&M, to play in the 1st round of the NCAA's. They won that game and played the next day against Leb Valley and lost.

I pulled up Middlebury for the same year but they are listed as a member of the ECAC with an overall record of 6-16 and a conference record of 6-13.

Williams for that year, 93-94 was 22-4 but in the space marked conference it says...NONE and for conference record it says...NA
Final games were a win against Worcester State and a loss to Mass-Dartmouth.

3 teams and 3 different designations. And I would have thought they were all in the NESCAC at that time. I didn't follow the league back then so I wouldn't know. Probably Old Guy and amh63 would though.

Anyway I had this website in my favorites file and though I would put it out there in case it helps. You can also go back and find individual players records as well, if you're looking for someone's career stats.     

[Vandy74]

Does anyone know the NESCAC teams by year to make the NCAA tournament since they have been allowed to play in the postseason, including their regular season/conference records? My question is if Bowdoin doesn't finish third in the conference would they still have a chance to get in?

I've had little luck finding D3 post season data archived in any sport beyond the Final Four participants but I think most schools archive their seasons back to 1999-2000 which would let you find out most of what you want to know.  Only 4-5 years would be omitted. 

AmherstStudent05.....I appreciate your opinion regarding Middlebury's post season chances.  I agree that they can still play themselves right back into the picture.  The second half they played against Tufts is exactly what they should be able to do the rest of the way and that caliber of play can beat anyone left on their schedule.  As good as Amherst is don't forget last season's game between the schools and the feelings that will carry over from it.  If the Panthers did in fact right the ship Sunday afternoon that finale of the regular season should also have a lot at stake for both teams.

Vandy and NEHoops,

Here's a website from the NCAA that allows you to go back to 1933 and get year end records. It's not like the records that Vandy mentions that most schools archive but it should help. 

http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/careersearch

When the website comes up you need to click on school (they list all schools from all divisions), then the year that you want, then the sport. Then click on search. When that page comes up you will see the schools name. Click on that and the pages that I mention below will download. Only 2 pages. Many times the sheets are handwritten or typed with a typewriter (what's that ) Sometimes they are done by the SID sometimes by the Coach. Sometimes they can be quite messy with poor handwriting. These were year end reports that the NCAA required the teams to fill out and send in. Some schools were good and followed instructions well. Other schools, not so good.


You can get the team schedule, won-lost record (from which you can probably determine post-season play or not) conference record, and a stat sheet showing who was on the team and a number of relevant stats for each player.

As a for instance I pulled up Amherst from 1993-94 and it shows they were 22-5 that year, with a 9-3 conference record in the NESCAC. The final games they played were against Worcester Tech, a win, Brandeis, a win, Colby, a win, Franklin & Marshall, a win down there, and Lebanon Valley, a loss also on F&M's court. I'm guessing, since I assume that there wasn't a conference tournament back then, that the Colby game was the final regular season contest and that the LJ's went to Lancaster, home of F&M, to play in the 1st round of the NCAA's. They won that game and played the next day against Leb Valley and lost.

I pulled up Middlebury for the same year but they are listed as a member of the ECAC with an overall record of 6-16 and a conference record of 6-13.

Williams for that year, 93-94 was 22-4 but in the space marked conference it says...NONE and for conference record it says...NA
Final games were a win against Worcester State and a loss to Mass-Dartmouth.

3 teams and 3 different designations. And I would have thought they were all in the NESCAC at that time. I didn't follow the league back then so I wouldn't know. Probably Old Guy and amh63 would though.

Anyway I had this website in my favorites file and though I would put it out there in case it helps. You can also go back and find individual players records as well, if you're looking for someone's career stats.   

Thanks Magicman,

Stats junkie that I am I can see myself getting lost for hours at a time on this site.