MBB: NESCAC

[Vandy74]

Just a few random comments.

Old_Hooper...having lost a brother prematurely to cancer I really enjoyed that HS basketball vid.  Thanks for the link.

Amh63...Merryman shoes have changed color but they are still not standard issue.  They simply lack the luminescent quality of their predecessors. 

Old Guy...There has been a discernible lack of positive energy at Pepin in your absence.  Fortunately the Panthers have returned to their winning ways with the return of Young Guy in the stands.  In your full authority as Fon of all you survey please postpone any of his Princely duties until sometime in April.

I think I might make the short trip to Castleton on Tuesday night and witness the Ephs firsthand. 

[nescac1]

Halfway through the conference schedule!  Here are in my view the top contenders for individual honors so far:

POY: Toomey in a runaway.
ROY: Robinson in a runway.
COY: Hixon or Gilbride, close race.

First-team all-NESCAC: Toomey, Safford, Hart, Green, Robinson, Swords
(I feel like after Toomey, the next five are all very hard to distinguish based on performance so far hence the sixth guy; what's interesting is that none are seniors and all have, so far, outplayed three seniors who were pre-season all-Americans -- in other words, the future is very bright for NESCAC)

Second-team all-NESCAC: Mayer (should keep rising and I'd bet will beat out Robinson for the first team, just because coaches would rather reward a senior than a frosh), Kizell (perimeter is very, very crowded this year, but hard to imagine him off the first team when all is said and done), Killian, Hudnut
Other contenders: Sinnickson (probably hasn't played enough to warrant consideration) and Boornazian (has cooled down a bit in recent weeks)
DPOY: Killian, followed by Swords or Sabety

[P'bearfan]

Halfway through the conference schedule!  Here are in my view the top contenders for individual honors so far:

POY: Toomey in a runaway.
ROY: Robinson in a runway.
COY: Hixon or Gilbride, close race.

Probably not a big surprise but my vote would go to Gilbride for COY....coming into the season he lost 2 important pieces...their best player and starting PG and their most experienced big man (to graduation).  Coach Gilbride has done a great job adapting his offense and defense to the players he has and he's helped Swords blossom into a real impact player.  Overall Bowdoin may have less talent than Amherst or Williams which makes the way their playing all the more impressive.

[AmherstStudent05]

Halfway through the conference schedule!  Here are in my view the top contenders for individual honors so far:

POY: Toomey in a runaway.
ROY: Robinson in a runway.
COY: Hixon or Gilbride, close race.

First-team all-NESCAC: Toomey, Safford, Hart, Green, Robinson, Swords
(I feel like after Toomey, the next five are all very hard to distinguish based on performance so far hence the sixth guy; what's interesting is that none are seniors and all have, so far, outplayed three seniors who were pre-season all-Americans -- in other words, the future is very bright for NESCAC)

Second-team all-NESCAC: Mayer (should keep rising and I'd bet will beat out Robinson for the first team, just because coaches would rather reward a senior than a frosh), Kizell (perimeter is very, very crowded this year, but hard to imagine him off the first team when all is said and done), Killian, Hudnut
Other contenders: Sinnickson (probably hasn't played enough to warrant consideration) and Boornazian (has cooled down a bit in recent weeks)
DPOY: Killian, followed by Swords or Sabety

Thanks, nescac1! You can always be counted on for a provocative/insightful post to keep the conversation going.  I will share a few thoughts on the all-conference topic.

First, I do wish the NESCAC was a bit more transparent about the criteria for all-conference consideration.  Is the whole season taken into account? Is it just conference play?  Is the whole season taken into account with extra weight given to conference play? It is all a mystery to me.  One thing I am pretty sure of though is that the All-Conference picks are not made until AFTER the conference tournament.  If I am right about that, then we are not yet halfway through the Conference slate (I hasten to add that while Williams and Amherst -- among others -- have already played five conference games, not all NESCAC teams have even reached this threshold).

I do not have nescac1's confidence to hazard predictions about the All-Conference teams this early in the season with so many key games to come.  However, this being an election year, the election desk at AmherstStudent05 headquarters will make the following two projections -- even if more than 50% of precincts may still yet be outstanding.

(1): AS05 can project that Duncan Robinson will win NESCAC ROY.  Don't think I need to add to much to this.  We all know what a phenomenal season Duncan is having.  A little while ago I wondered if Duncan might be the first first year to be named First Team All-NESCAC and I still think he remains in contention for that (more on that below).  The only thing I want to add is just a word of sympathy for Hunter Sabety.  By any measure he is having an outstanding inaugural campaign in his own right.  In any other year he could justifiably begin work on his ROY acceptance speech.

(2): Aaron Toomey, Michael Mayer, and Joey Kizel will all comfortably make the NESCAC's First Team.  As a matter of pretty clear historical precedent, NESCAC coaches remain loyal to NESCAC greats who have previously been named to the First Team.  This is by no means an absolute rule, but it is a VERY reliable indicator.  I see no reason to deviate this year.  First, Toomey, Mayer and Kizel have all had spectacular careers.  Second, they are all having very fine seasons.  Third, they are all still the best players on their respective teams which are all still at the top of the NESCAC.  If points 2 & 3 hold, I will be very surprised if we don't see Toomey, Mayer , and Kizel all on the First Team again this year.

A few other thoughts......

While some years are harder than others, picking an all conference team is always very difficult.  The talent pool has a lot of depth and diversity (in terms of game type), the sample size is small, and the talent differential is often marginal.  Accordingly, in considering all conference selections, I am partial to the "to the victors go the spoils" approach.  To be clear (and not to reprise a debate from last year that preceded my time here as a poster) I do not believe that the best player on the NESCAC's best team should automatically be named Conference POY.  But I do believe team performance should be a significant factor in determining all conference selections (for this reason, I thought Bryan Hurley/Bowdoin deserved some Second Team love last season).  Conversely, I would be EXTREMELY hesitant to give all conference consideration to any player whose team did not qualify for the NESCAC Tournament (I believe nescac1 has cited this as a reason why the perhaps otherwise deserving Matt Vadas was overlooked last year).  I know this can be unfair.  After all, a great player can be surrounded by a significantly inferior supporting cast.  Also, it can be slightly arbitrary to hold the view that the best player on the 8th best team can be named to an All-NESCAC team but the best player on the 9th best team can't.  Still, I believe that making the conference tournament is a big deal and should be rewarded appropriately.  Based on this consideration (of mine), Hart and Safford are not out of the woods yet in terms of "qualifying" (though I would particularly hate to see Hart denied All NESCAC consideration since he is such a fine player).

The Sinnickson question is intriguing.  Ordinarily, my instinctive answer would be that anyone who has missed as much time as he has would have a very difficult time gaining all conference consideration.  However, if he maintains his gaudy conference numbers (an event, I must confess, I find likely because that pace would be difficult for anyone to maintain and Midd has some very tough conference games coming up) and Midd manages to finish at or near the top of the NESCAC, I am not sure how you could keep him off.

On Duncan Robinson.  I don't know the last time a NESCAC freshman made an All Conference Team, let alone the First Team.  I do know that such four year greats as Toomey, Olson, Rhoten, and Crotty were completely shut out.  I still think Robinson has a chance at the first team, and a very good chance at the second team, but if he makes the first team, he will do so as the second Eph on that squad.  I know Mayer struggled a bit earlier (though now looks to be back in fine form), but even when he was struggling, and especially now that he seems to be healthy again, I never stopped considering him to be clearly Williams's best and most dangerous player.  Put it this way, if Amherst plays Williams again this season, and I could sit one Eph out of the game, it would unquestionably be Mayer (of course, if you want to give Mayer's minutes to Kilcullen, I am fine with that too).

I am very pleased to see you acknowledging Killian as a strong candidate for DPOY.  At this point, I suspect that Swords might be a more appealing/popular choice, but Killian is -- to this point at least -- certainly deserving and would definitely be my pick.  Spencer and Brian -- the Amherst announcers last year -- dubbed Tom "The Magnet" and that moniker has definitely proved telling this year.  Killian just seems to have innate sense to get into passing lanes or be around the ball.

As I said earlier, previous all conference selections are usually selected back.  I think we saw that pretty clearly last year with both Brown and Callaghan making the Second Team.  However, I do think Epley may have a difficult time earning an All-NESCAC spot. While still a VERY fine player, his play has tailed off a bit recently, and, in my view, he has been clearly eclipsed by Robinson.  Hard to see Williams getting three people on All Conference teams.  In fact, I expect this year's all conference teams to be a little less concentrated among Amherst, Williams, and Midd than they have in the recent past, although, again and most importantly, there are still A LOT of CRITICAL conference games still to play.  Should be fun.

[amh63]

Vandy...thanks for the shoe report!  Any report on Hamilton's Lin's attire?  Fon Old Guy...like it...fits in any of several ways 
Williams vs The school that plays "the System".  Should be a track meet and an offensive display.
Amherst plays RIC at home on Wednesday.  Always a tough match.  Trying to get a read of RIC this year...it was a team that had played a number of very early games in Canada and has a number of transfers.  Coach Walsh knows all the angles...good coach...defensive minded coach who last year tried to keep opponents under 70 points...or his offensive weak team was in trouble.  Checked over on the Little East board.  Critical game last night in R.I. ...RIC needed a win at home to tie ECSU for the top spot in the conference.  Reports has it that Coach Walsh was very upset with his team after the loss.  So upset, that he had his team run wind sprints right after the game in front of parents.  7 Express was there...as he left the game, sprints were still going on.  Coach Walsh likes to go to the Big Dance....a Hamilton grad.  Even had his team play against Providence College one year.

Speaking of different styles....finally spent some time watching a CCIW match between IWU and Carthage last night. Yes the dreaded Midwest conference that is "ranked" over the Nescac in level of play or whatever criteria by those in the know.  In any case, most interesting for me in many aspects.  Extremely fine broadcast of the game ...professional announcers and video.  The two teams were battlng for position in the upper tier of the conference.  IWU (saw them in Salem one year..W stands for Wesleyan...a family member to our Wesleyan, but plays better BB) is the 4th ranked team on D3hoops.  It lost last night at Carthage.  Packed house in a large facility..very vocal fans discussing calls with the refs.  Close game between to well coached teams.  Both teams play a half court style game with an emphasis of going inside for points..not too much perimeter offense..though the winning team won by hitting critical outside shots.  Think a Nescac team has a good chance  against both teams if they should meet in the post season..in Salem.  Big bodies, methodical offenses, smart players.  One player from IWU got stronger as the game got closer late in the game.  He allowed the game to come to him it seems to me.  Wow, have not used that expression wrt a player in a long time.  Tried to score down low, and when denied, went outside for his points.  Got rebound, etc. 
My take...if these are among the better teams of the CCIW, the CAC will do OK.  I think that we have overall better shooters and quicker players...more athletic players in general.  Suggest other posters to take a look at UAA and CCIW games. 

[Old Guy]

First-team all-NESCAC: Toomey, Safford, Hart, Green, Robinson, Swords

what's interesting is that none are seniors and all have, so far, outplayed three seniors who were pre-season all-Americans -- NESCAC 1

Whoa Nellie, as Keith Jackson used to say, let's check that out.

NESCAC 1 is right – "the perimeter is very crowded this year," but I think he is mistaken in bumping Middlebury's Joey Kizel off the first-team All-NESCAC, even at this premature point in the season.

The assumption that Graham Safford is having a better year than Joey Kizel really doesn't hold up, despite how well Safford has played.

I am so impressed with Kizel's play this season. With his pre-season All-American honors, he has drawn opponents' intense attention, and he has unselfishly adjusted his game. He's bringing the ball up against pressure, scoring, distributing, rebounding, playing defense. He always plays hard. He is in backcourt this year not with Jake Wolfin (all-time assists leader) and Nolan Thompson (All-NESCAC), but with two first-years (St. Amour and Brown), and he's playing extraordinarily well.

You don't have to tell anyone who saw the Bates-Middlebury game what a terrific player Graham Safford is, but a statistical comparison between Kizel and Safford, to this point in the year, may actually favor Kizel.

Scoring: Safford averages 20.3 ppg; Kizel 15.6, but . . . Safford takes 16 shots a game (15.8) and Kizel fewer than 10 (9.7).

Safford has taken nearly 90 more shots than Kizel in one fewer games. They play about the same minutes: Safford 34.4; Kizel 34.9. They are both crucial to their team's success.

FG%  - Safford: 44.5; Kizel 43.7.

3 point % - Safford 34.7%; Kizel 39.2%

FT % - Safford 77.0; Kizel 81. 2

Assists/game: Safford 5.1; Kizel 5.7

Rebounds/game: Safford 5.2; Kizel  4.7

Turnovers/game: Safford 3.8; Kizel 2.8

Steals/game: Safford 1.8;  Kizel 2.0

I don't know who is the better defender; someone else who has actually seen both play will have to make that judgment.

I also can't talk about the "intangibles" for Safford, but Kizel's this year are off the chart, providing the senior leadership for a team in such transition with so many young players. We all know Kizel's propensities at the end of games: he wants the ball  (trust me, we know what Safford can do at the end of a game!) and he produces. I especially like the fact that he's money at the line. Foul him at the end of the game, and it's game over.

What this exercise probably shows best is what outstanding players both are.

My keen sense is that Kizel's play is increasingly better, more efficient, as the season has progressed, and his numbers reflect that. Is the same true for Safford? So NESCAC 1 may be right when he says that it's "hard to imagine him off the first team when all is said and done."

My point: don't be too quick to assume that Kizel is having a down year and the pre-season hype was unjustified. He's not and it wasn't. He played on Midd teams that lost ten games in his first three years. Some would argue that this may be his best year as a Panther.

And there's a lot of season left. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

amh63, IWU's opponent was Carthage, not Centre.

[Bucket]

Other contenders: Sinnickson (probably hasn't played enough to warrant consideration) and Boornazian (has cooled down a bit in recent weeks)

So I've learned that All-Conference honors are based on conference play, which renders this Sinnickson line moot (he's played in every NESCAC game), unless he misses games in the future.

[amh63]

Thanks Mr Ypsi for the correction.  No excuses on my part other than being too lazy to check when I had some doubt...prior to posting.  Still, will go back and make the correction and leaving this post as evidence of my ERROR.   Even went to the Carthage site to get come facts about the Lutheran based school.

[middhoops]

amh63, if you watch the CCIW games closely, you'll notice that they tend to be very physical. Not physical in the dirty sense but physically powerful and intimidating.  Look at Victor Davis and Landon Gamble.  Post players who are 6-6ish and 240 or so.  They can establish position, get good shots and draw fouls.  Defensively they are blocks of granite.  Our conference has plenty of finesse players but relatively few truly physical guys on the blocks.  Not that we don't have guys who weigh 240 lbs., just that most of them don't play the physical game of a Landon Gamble.
Last year's Midd/North Central game was a perfect illustration.  Unfortunately.  Nolan Thompson smothered the best player in their league.  It wasn't enough as NC steadily wore Middlebury down at both ends.
All top tier D3 teams have plenty of shooters.  All shooters have off nights.

I agree that Amherst would fare well against the top teams of the CCIW but they'd do so by stealing passes, moving the ball with blinding quickness and Aaron Toomey just figuring out what it takes for his team to win.

[amh63]

Middhoops...agreed with your points.  Remember well since Amherst played North Central last year for the right to go to Atlanta.  It was a low scoring battle.  Have watched the game several times on video replay thanks to the NCAA.  Coach Hixon said that Amherst played one of its best defensive games just to stay close to them until Amherst's scorers got their grove back.  It was a physical battle all around. Gamble was not the key since Big Pete, all 260 Pounds of him, bless his size, it was their other players.  Amherst starters..even Pollack...played solid in that game.  This year's starters I mean.  That was one of the reasons I watched NC earlier in the season in their games in VA.  The UAA also plays a physical game with deep teams, etc...like Washington U.  Some CAC teams have experience with UAA teams in games against Brandeis and Rochester.  Unfortunately, the UW teams are big body, physical teams in general.  Therefore, I believe Coach Hixon plays OCC teams that historically have physical defensive styles...like RIC.  Remember, several years ago in LeFrak, RIC came up and put a beating to Amherst in the first half.  Hixon challenged his players to step up at the half and the Amherst players did and won.  Hixon states in the video of the game..that the refs allowed the rough play; otherwise both teams would have lost most of their starters to fouls.

[nescac1]

Old Guy and AmherstStudent05, fair points in defense of the veterans, in particular Kizell.  Looking more closely at the stats does seem to favor Kizell or at least be very close -- perhaps a few particularly memorable plays by Safford this year, plus the top-line scoring number, helped him leap to the forefront of my mind.  Assuming Kizell and Toomey end up as first team all-NESCAC guards, then Safford and Hart would make a heck of a second-team pairing, and a very nice heir-apparent duo on the perimeter.  I feel like Hart in particular doesn't get enough publicity here just because of where he plays.  At some level I agree that team performance plays into things and works against him, but then again what he does is all the more impressive without a lot of other threats for defenses to key on.  He's only a sophomore so even if not this year, he will get his due.  He's not especially quick or athletic, certainly not big in any way, but he just knows how to score -- kind of the Jeff Hornacek of NESCAC, for fans old enough to remember him . 

Bucket, I didn't realize all-NESCAC was based entirely on conference play.  That changes things considerably, helping Sinnickson and Mayer in particular.  If Duncan Robinson keeps up his same pace from the first five conference games, it would be REALLY tough to keep him of an all-NESCAC squad -- in those five games he is averaging 18.8 points on only 10.2 FGA thanks to absolutely insane shooting percentage (61/54/87).  Sinnickson and Hart have also been particularly strong in NESCAC play.  Guys who suffer a bit looking only at conference games (and of course, there are a lot of games left to play) include Safford (his shooting is much, MUCH better out of conference), Connor Green (who has surprisingly struggled a bit in his four NESCAC games, especially relative to his extremely efficient scoring the rest of the season), and Swords (whose point production and blocks suffer in comparison to his out-of-NESCAC games). 

Therefore, it does seem likely that Kizell and Mayer will end up higher and some combo of Swords/Green/Safford a bit lower. 

Amherst05, agree that barring a spectacular turnaround, Epley is going to have a tough time making an all-NESCAC squad especially because his stellar play earlier in the season won't be considered.  He did look better vs. Hamilton and I can't imagine his shooting won't turn aroudn at some point -- he has consistently nailed threes for four years so a rough four game stretch I'd like to think is just an aberration.  As for Mayer vs. Duncan, it's a very, very close call right now. 

[old_hooper]

Interesting comments about CCIW and UW state schools and the kind of players and style of play.  Here is an article of a guy who has had tremendous influence in this over the years.  His name is Hugh Roberts...and his influence on young basketball players in Wisconsin for years.  He has over 150 players that have gone on to play in college.  Potential player of the year Tyler Tillema from UWSP and his two brothers were influenced by this program. 

What is so amazing about this story is that Randolph, WI is only about 1800 people in rural Farm area at least an hour or two from any major city in Wisconsin.  However, because of the reputation and good work done, parents would take their sons in some cases driving 4 hours one way to participate in this program. 

Makes me also think of Mike Crotty and his father legacy and the tremendous influence and help they are doing for young players preparing them to play at the next level.

URL:http://www.wiscnews.com/news/article_e1e1c5a4-38f2-11e1-8b21-0019bb2963f4.html

[Old Guy]

With five or so NESCAC games to play, I start my All-Nescac first team with Toomey and Hart, with Robinson very close, then we'll see how Kizel, Safford, Swords, Mayer, Sabety, Green sort themselves out in the remaining games.

I have to admit I don't have much of a sense of Killian. Keep in mind my judgments are based on seeing players in person in the last 2-3 years, and this year scouring box scores like a thoroughbred racing fan analyzes the Racing Form. It's hard then to evaluate defensive presence. Only once in a while do I get to actually see a game, here 6000 miles away.

Amherst is loaded for sure, but I have David Kalema on my second team so far.

I did hear a rumor here in Yaounde that Robinson may declare for the draft. One and done. Any truth to that? 

[toad22]

After watching the Williams-Hamilton game I came away with the feeling that Hart may be too much in the center of their offense to be considered a 1st teamer without them winning more. Hamilton runs more screens, picks, double screens, double picks, etc. than I have ever seen run for a single player in my life. He can really shoot, but he has an awful lot of help from his teammates. I think they need to win before he can be a 1st teamer, at least before his senior year.