MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

PN....not that it matter wrt your selection of POY and since actual polling will be released shortly, what source did you use for steals average?...conference  or all games.  Reason is, in your writeup you noted the relative low number of 1.8 For Toomey.  I thought it should be higher...but you guys are good, so what the heck.  Read the writeup by the Amherst bias SID on Toomey in the Preview of today's game and it pointed to an an higher number of 2.1.   Just curious.  Does not really matter...it is what it is.

[P'bearfan]

Our preview of all four NESCAC Quarterfinal games: http://sites.middlebury.edu/panthernation/2014/02/22/nescac-quarterfinal-previews/

PN...great job on the preview.  Don't have much to add regarding the Bowdoin v Trinity game today.  The first meeting between these two was really ugly and Bowdoin wasn't able to sustain any meaningful offensive run.  Hopefully they'll be able to put a few mini-runs together and stay out in front of the Bantams.

One key will be keeping Swords out of foul trouble.  He finished the last game with 4 fouls and if I remember correctly this is the game where he stayed in after picking up his 3rd foul and aggressively went to block the next shot he saw.  Held my breath on that one waiting for a whistle.  He picked up his 4th later in the 2nd half but stayed in to play. I agree that the rest of Bowdoin's front line can do a good job but Swords just forces so many teams to change their offense that it's key to have him in there.

Really liked your take on Hausman.  He's a lot of fun to watch - very dynamic.  I think one of the things Bowdoin is still trying to figure out is the flow with Hurley coming off the bench.  As the Bates game showed he's can be a big threat but it changed the dynamic. Now that Hurley is moving better, hopefully the team has had enough time to get into a new rythm.

Should be fun...GoUBears!

[P'bearfan]

The other interesting statisc from their last meeting is that Trinity outrebounded Bowdoin - 49-36.  That hasn't happened many times this year.  Trinity did a great job on the defensive glass grabbing 32 rebounds and limiting Bowdoin to just 8 offensive rebounds.  If Bowdoin can focus on changing 1 statistic from their last meeting it should be this one.

[lefrakenstein]

lefrakenstein, good work once again.  I think those numbers are a very good starting point, but not perfect.  I wonder, though, are they calculated on a per-minute basis?  Because that is the only way I can see Sabety as more valuable than Hudnut.  To me, Hudnut belongs above Sabety on an all-NESCAC second team (although both are certainly excellent centers -- historically good year for center play in NESCAC, as Rashid Epps, Pollack before he got injured, whichever Trinity guy you consider to the center between Ogundekwo and Ajayi all played very well at the five as well). 

Compare their conference numbers:
Hudnut -- 17.7/8.3/3.4  shooting 48/32/82, .4 spg, .6 bpg, 2.5 top, 1.8 fpg
Sabety -- 14.5/6.5/.2, shooting 64/0/59, .4 spg, 2.7 bpg, 1.2 top, 2.8 fpg

Sabety is a much better shot-blocker and has a better two-point percentage -- he is really dominant within five feet of the rim, just a monstrous presence down there on both ends, but I thought looked a bit lost once he leaves the paint, since he hasn't really developed his shot or his ball-handling skills.  Hudnut has a much more well-rounded game (and this is backed up by the eye test) -- he can shoot all the way to the three point line, is an elite passer for a big guy, a great free throw shooter, and his two-point shooting percentage is still over 50 percent (his high number of three point attempts for a center drive that down, but his true shooting percentage when you account for threes is better than 48 percent).  And he's still a solid post presence as well.  Now, Sabety plays about 11 fewer minutes per game, so on a per-minute basis, he is far more efficient.  But would you rather have Hudnut for 34 minutes, or Sabety for 22?  For me, the answer is clearly Hudnut.  First, especially for a big guy, it's really hard to maintain productivity when your minutes are at Hudnut's level, so that will hurt his efficiency on a per-minute basis, whereas Sabety is always fresh.  But the big issue is fouls -- Hudnut rarely gets in foul trouble, while Sabety frequently does.  So while he is a great player when he is on the floor, that is only about half the time most games, severely limiting his value. 

If a per-minute basis is used, that would explain Mayer over Robinson as well -- otherwise, I can't see how Mayer could possibly outpace Robinson when Robinson beats him in most statistical categories, other than rebounding, in conference play.  In particular, Robinson's true shooting percentage HAS to be the best or close to the best we've ever seen in NESCAC, maybe Whittington was higher but I think the high number of threes Robinson makes and takes makes that number truly elite.   

I also think Kizel is a bit low.  Numbers can't account for much of what he brings to the floor.  For the most part, though, your statistical analysis closely corresponds to the consensus view on the best players in NESCAC this year, which is impressive / surprising.

That's a good question. EWA definitely values minutes played. PER is on a per-minute basis though, and even there Sabety has a significant edge (31.76 to 22.79). As you pointed out, field goal %, blocks, and turn over rate are the main reasons for the difference.

Mayer is also above Robinson in PER, although the gap is narrower (32.04 to 27.56). This is driven mostly by Mayer's rebound rate (17.87%), which is much better than Robinson's (9.01). Mayer also has a slightly lower TO rate. Robinson's TS% is 79.03%, indeed the highest in the entire conference by a fair margin (the next highest is Luke Westman of Colby - 72.12%). I went back and calculated Whittington's TS% in 2011 and it was 74.12%, so you might be right that it's among the very best in conference ever, if not possibly the best.

[Panthernation]

PN....not that it matter wrt your selection of POY and since actual polling will be released shortly, what source did you use for steals average?...conference  or all games.  Reason is, in your writeup you noted the relative low number of 1.8 For Toomey.  I thought it should be higher...but you guys are good, so what the heck.  Read the writeup by the Amherst bias SID on Toomey in the Preview of today's game and it pointed to an an higher number of 2.1.   Just curious.  Does not really matter...it is what it is.

All of the statistics in the article are based on conference numbers, which gives the best indicator of what players did against like competition. Also, to our understanding, conference statistics are most heavily weighted when NESCAC award considerations are made, though the whole decision-making process seems less than scientific.

[AmherstStudent05]

PN, as always, I have zero inside information, but I have always been under the impression that All NESCAC votes are cast after the conference tournament has been completed.  I think this view is certainly consistent with certain voting decisions in years past where a tournament surprise was rewarded with All-Conference recognition.  For instance, there is simply no way Coach Paulsen could have won CoY in 2007 prior to Williams upsetting Amherst in the Championship Game.  I could be wrong though.  After all, I thought there was simply no way Coach Brown could win CoY in 2012 over Coach Hixon!

We asked a former coach, who said the voting takes place before the tournament.

I don't think this is quite right.  I have been told that there are two different components to this.  There is a "nomination" process and a "voting" process.  Nominations are due by Monday.  Final ballots are due on March 3rd (after the championship game and roughly around the time when the All-Conference team is unveiled).  This makes sense.  Again, some previous all-conference picks can only be explained by their performance in the NESCAC Tournament, and, in any event, it would be quite odd to remove the NESCAC's most important games from consideration for conference awards.  Also, if voting really was finalized now, why wait another 10 days to make the results public?

[amh63]

Several comments at halftime in the Panthers game....Middlebury up by 13 at the half. 
First.....checked on last seasons announcements....timing wise.  Aaron was cited as POY on the NESCAC board on the 27 of Feb. 2013.  The tournament finals with the Amherst one point win over Williams on the 24th of Feb.

Read the PN preview of the games today.  YG was the writer of the Colby-Amherst game.  Enjoyed the writeup...even had a StarWars reference...nice.  Fine work.....imo....on the road to being a better writer than his dad.
One comment on the game today....up in Maine....seemed to be the LGs built a 7-point lead at the half is not noticed much in writeups.....the hot shooting in the second half by Colby...especially by Colby is cited, as it should.  Like Coach Hixon mentioned, there may have been a lapse of focus by his team....looking at Bowdoin ahead....after the first half.  Just a little, imo, more credit to Colby and better defense for the full 40 minute was needed.

[lefrakenstein]

Tufts trying to give midd an assist on the Road to Salem... they lead Williams by one at the half. Tufts did a nice job hitting a few threes down the stretch to take the lead. If they could do a better job getting the ball down low to Sabety in the second half (I saw several entry-pass TOs in just the 5-10 minutes I watched), they might actually have a chance to pull off the stunner in the restroom at Williamstown.

[nescac1]

Tufts up one over Williams in Williamstown.  Night and day performance for Tufts from the last time these teams met -- the Jumbos are playing much more attentive defense, and have beaten Williams on the boards, getting a good number of second-chance scores.  Williams played zone most of the first half, and Tufts would run about 30 seconds off the shot clock almost every time.  As a result, the Ephs could not get into any kind of offensive rhythm, almost no open-floor opportunities or quick runs like in the last Tufts game.  Finally Williams switched to a man defense late in the half which sped the pace of the game up and allowed them to go on a run, but Tufts responded by hitting some deep threes to retake the lead.

It's been an awesome center battle so far, with Mayer and Sabety the best players on the floor, but Sabety has the edge with three monster dunks and three huge blocks, he has been a force.  Haladyna continues his fine play for Tufts.  For Williams, it was a very quiet half for both Duncan Robinson and Taylor Epley, both of whom really need to get going from the perimeter.  I think the Ephs should either stick with man defense, or apply more pressure in the zone, because Tufts slowing the game down really worked to its benefit.  In good news for Williams, Hayden Rooke-Ley returned and made a few nice plays off the bench.  Obviously he has some rust to work off but good to see him out there. 

[Panthernation]

Also, if voting really was finalized now, why wait another 10 days to make the results public?

That's how they do it in every major professional sport, so it wouldn't be surprising. Would be nice if the NESCAC press release gave some clarity on what the awards were based on.

[Pat Coleman]

They're based on coaches' voting. And each coach can take into account whatever they like, right? Coaches aren't likely to vote on a particular set of statistics over another, I'd think. They're more likely to vote based on their personal observations from having seen them play in person and on tape.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Also, if voting really was finalized now, why wait another 10 days to make the results public?

That's how they do it in every major professional sport, so it wouldn't be surprising. Would be nice if the NESCAC press release gave some clarity on what the awards were based on.

Not to mention, there's the awkwardness of your star player finding out some other (presumed inferior) player was a unanimous choice for MVP.  You'd much rather take care of that conversation after the tournament, not during.

[lefrakenstein]

Holy smokes, Mike Greenman!With Williams down 4 with a minute to play he hits a deep three and then a pull-up jumper to give Tufts a 1-pt lead with 10 seconds left.

Then Sabety is fouled, hits the first FT. Now about to take a FT which could knock Williams out of the tournament. (tie game with 3.1 ticks left)

Sabety badly short-arms the FT. Overtime. Poor Tufts, they never seem to pull these out.

[nescac1]

Wow, headed to OT.  Absolute ONIONS for Mike Greenman hitting a deep three and a very tough contested two to keep Williams alive.  Michael Mayer and Hunter Sabety are putting on an absolute show on the interior.  Duncan Robinson and Taylor Epley can not buy a shot for the Ephs.  Duncan looks way, way off.  Hopefully those two can turn it around in OT.  Tufts has hit a LOT of tough, clutch shots this game.  Playing very well. 

[JustAFan]

Terrific game as in Williamstown heading into OT. Tufts is such a better team with Ferris back. And Coach Sheldon's game plan has been excellent.