MBB: NESCAC

[7express]

Does anyone know when the bids for the NCAA tournament will be announced?

Monday afternoon the 3rd.  It's sometime between 12 & 3 PM.  Not sure if it's before or after the women; if it's before the women it'll be on the earlier side (either 12 or 1), if it's after the women it'll be on the later side (2 or 3).

[magicman]

Not too far off with my picks for the 1st round games.


My predictions                                                   Actual scores

Amherst over Colby  85-70                                Amherst won 82-72                                       

Middlebury over Hamilton  78-70                       Middlebury won 81-77                       

Williams over Tufts  86-74                                Williams won 87-77  in OT

Bowdoin over Trinity  66-58                              Trinity won 71-67 in triple OT   I don't think anyone saw that coming.

[magicman]

Does anyone know when the bids for the NCAA tournament will be announced?

D3hoops usually has a link to the selection program on the front page.  Just check there on Monday March 3rd. 

[grabtherim]

The first three games were decided within a total 4.5 points of my posted lines.  As with Magicman, Trinity was the exception for me as well. 
These lines were a clear case of beginners luck.  Walzy can you hear me?  C'mon back.
 
My predictions:
Middlebury -2.5 over Hamilton  (Midd wins by 4)
Williams -8.5 over Tufts   (Williams wins by 8)
Amherst -12.5 over Colby (Amherst wins by 10)
Bowdoin -5.5 over Trinity  (Trinity wins by 4)

Early lines for next week anyone? 

[Old Guy]

Middlebury over Hamilton  78-70                     

Middlebury won 81-77 in OT   magicman

Wms-Tufts was OT. Midd won in regulation, after being up 22.

[nescac1]

Very interesting semifinal on tap for next week.  Trinity is the only team in NESCAC that can match Amherst's athleticism and quickness.  Trinity is deep and relentless on the boards.  The problem for the Bants is that, while they are equal to Amherst in that regard, Amherst can also really shoot the ball and is just far more offensively skilled.  Trinity is just an awful shooting team, from two, three, and the foul line.  Starks is the only perimeter shooter you worry about at all.  The Bants will have to shoot well above their typical level in all three categories to have a chance.

Midd-Williams, obviously, looks far more interesting on paper, and I'd be surprised if this game, like most Midd-Williams games, doesn't go down to the wire.  Both teams (other than one bad half for Midd at Amherst) have generally been playing very well in recent weeks.   I'm sure the Panther Nation folks will provide an extensive preview, but there are a lots of interesting story lines.  Michael Mayer was really kept in check by Midd during the first meeting, but was absolutely dominant yesterday.  Joey Kizel was also really kept in check by the Ephs in the first meeting, but like Mayer has picked up his game in a huge way towards the end of the season.  I expect both all-Americans to make a lot of big plays in that game -- the question is who else will step up. 

Mayer, Epley and Robinson have for the most part taking turns taking over games of late.  When two of those three guys have it going, the Ephs' offense really hums.  Last night, until the OT, only one was playing well, and that is when they struggle.  If all three are in a groove, I don't see how the Ephs can be stopped.  But that hasn't happened very often (of course, all three haven't been fully healthy and on the floor together for a full game all that often).  For Midd, I think Merryman and Sinnickson both need to have it going to beat Williams.  If those two guys aren't hitting jumpers, Midd's offense can look sluggish, but when they are shooting well suddenly there is a ton of space on the floor and a Midd is very difficult to guard.

The other match-up which will be fun to watch is Jake Brown vs. Mike Greenman.  Two frosh point guards who I expect will be starting, and fighting for the mantle of best NESCAC PG, for years to come.  Both have improved tremendously since early in the year.  Brown's immense talent was always apparent, but he would try to do too much and make poor decisions during the first part of the season, leading to a lot of turnovers.  Now, he is playing with much more poise and his defense in particular is a huge asset, and he can pick his spots on offense.  Greenman early in the year seemed to have trouble finding his shot, and also was turning the ball over via some reckless play.  Lately, he has been playing at an amazingly high level, sinking not just wide-open threes but also really difficult jumpers (and always, it seems, at critical moments), pushing the ball when opportunities present themselves, but also taking care of the ball and never really needlessly forcing the issue.  He has also turned into a bit of a defensive pest, although bigger more physical guards still give him some trouble.  Right now, Brown's defense is ahead of Greenman's, and Greenman's offense is ahead of Brown's, but both are REALLY fun players to watch and both really energize their respective teams and fan-bases.   Should be another classic game.   

[P'bearfan]

My predictions                                                   Actual scores

Amherst over Colby  85-70                                Amherst won 82-72                                       

Middlebury over Hamilton  78-70                       Middlebury won 81-77 in OT                       

Williams over Tufts  86-74                                Williams won 87-77

Bowdoin over Trinity  66-58                              Trinity won 71-67 in triple OT   I don't think anyone saw that coming.

Magicman....I agree everyone was a bit stunned by Bowdoin's loss yesterday.

Can't put my finger on what the issue was other than to  say we shot horribly.  Swords was essentially our entire offense in the first half.  Even our bench, which had been a steady contributor all year, only scored a few points (4?) in the first half. 

Trinity's defense was good but not smothering.  We were getting decent shots they just weren't falling.  Trinity's aggressiveness really showed up on the defensive glass.

From everything I heard the P'bears had a good week of practice and the team knew the needed a top 2 finish to capture a tournament bid.  Just a shame that such a good season had to end this way.

[P'bearfan]

Very interesting semifinal on tap for next week.  Trinity is the only team in NESCAC that can match Amherst's athleticism and quickness.  Trinity is deep and relentless on the boards.  The problem for the Bants is that, while they are equal to Amherst in that regard, Amherst can also really shoot the ball and is just far more offensively skilled.  Trinity is just an awful shooting team, from two, three, and the foul line.  Starks is the only perimeter shooter you worry about at all.  The Bants will have to shoot well above their typical level in all three categories to have a chance.

Agreed....from everything I've seen of Trinity they will just not be able to keep pace with Amherst.  Amherst moves the ball so well and can score from inside or out.  The LJ's should have their way easily in this game.

[grabtherim]

Excellent analysis of Williams/Midd Nescac1. Spot on. I expect Robinson to be much more of a factor vs Midd than he was in their first meeting and in yesterday's game vs Tufts. If he is I'm afraid the up front match ups favor the Ephs big time and that could be the difference. Epley was a pleasure to watch yesterday especially in OT. With Sabety fouled out he pouncd on the more open lane taking the ball hard to the rack multiple times. Great recognition by him or the coaches who had him do so.

[magicman]

Middlebury over Hamilton  78-70                     

Middlebury won 81-77 in OT   magicman

Wms-Tufts was OT. Midd won in regulation, after being up 22.

Thanks Old Guy, I knew that but it was after 2 in the morning and my blurry eyes typed OT on the wrong line.

[daoustian]

Just looked at the Williams roster for the first time in a while.  Why does the SID bother to have a column on the roster page for "majors," then have almost all of it blank, and then for the few upperclassmen, writes "undeclared"?  Dick Quinn, if you're reading this, it looks sloppy.  I somehow doubt that Williams has turned into Florida State where the majority of the football team manages to major in "liberal arts". 

[Old Guy]

Middlebury over Hamilton  78-70                     

Middlebury won 81-77 in OT   magicman
           ____________

Wms-Tufts was OT. Midd won in regulation, after being up 22. Old Guy
            ____________

Thanks Old Guy, I knew that but it was after 2 in the morning and my blurry eyes typed OT on the wrong line. Magicman
            _____________

A minor quibble. But I "watched" all of both games on live stats - and they were so different, despite the fact that the Ephs won by ten and the Panthers by just four.

Middlebury had the game well in hand, a possible blow-out, and then, oh no, it's Williams all over again. Here they come - and Hart hasn't done anything, YET. At Midd, I would have been up the hallway, pacing, watching through the glass.

Williams was down to Tufts much of the game, then back and forth, and now here's Sabety with two foul shots, down one, with the game on the line. He makes the first, so I say to Young Girl, "Williams will call time out now." Time out, Williams. Again, she thinks I'm wicked smart, and I let her. I don't tell her that every coach from junior high to the NBA would call timeout there.

During the timeout, I say to her, "Williams will win now by ten points. He'll miss this foul shot and Williams will win on overtime: he's a frosh, it's Williams, AT WILLIAMS, it's too big. In his situation, I would be saying, 'Dear Lord, let me catch some rim.'" We tried so hard to will that second free throw in, but the cruel shorthand of live stats told the story" "Sabety miss free throw."

I picture a Husson guy up there in Bangor, Maine, when Sabety misses, saying, "draw me another one, bartender. Another chance at immortality lost."

Okay, pardon the hyperbole. But what would this board be saying had he nailed it? You think Midd would prefer to play Williams - or Tufts? 

NESCAC 1, in his relentlessly positive way, calls it a great win for the Ephs. Others, I suspect, view it as a escape of the narrowest possible means, by the skin of their teeth. It does set up a nice rematch next week, on a neutral court.

[nescac1]

Impressive, Old Guy, very impressive.  But let's see you post one of these predictions on the board, in real time -- so long as it accrues to Williams' benefit, that is ! 

You are right, by the way, the TO definitely helped.  Sabety's stroke was pure on most of his foul shots yesterday, including the first of the final two.  The second foul shot barely grazed the front of the rim.  Tough spot for a frosh to be in.  But without him, Tufts would not have been close.  He was an absolutely monster on both ends, and even though Mayer won the battle, it was only because he played more minutes -- going head-to-head, it was dead even, two guys playing the five about as well as you will ever see in Division 3.  It is scary to think what Sabety will do over the next three years -- and had Palleschi not gotten hurt, Tufts would have just been absolutely dominating teams inside. 

Oh, and Old Guy, it was without any doubt an escape by the skin of their teeth -- which is what made it such a great win!  As Coach Maker said after the game, Williams did not play its best game -- unlikely they beat Midd or Amherst playing at that level of sharpness on offense.  But it was also far from Williams' worst performance this year.  Tufts played very well, and had a great strategy -- reminded me of a running team in football controlling the clock and tempo methodically against a high-powered passing offense, and eventually wearing them down.  The Ephs just couldn't get into any sort of rhythm at all until OT, and it was dispiriting how many times Tufts was able to hit a tough shot with only a few seconds left on the shot clock.  Coach Maker also commented that athletic, physical teams tend to pose match-up problems for the Ephs.  Unfortunately, the three other remaining teams in the NESCAC tourney certainly qualify as athletic and physical. 

[nescac1]

On another note, while waiting for next week, Walzy mentioning it on Hoopsville reminded me that the NBA comparisons from a few years ago were fun.  Thoughts on this year's crop of potential all-NESCAC guys?  (The comparisons are to the style employed by NBA players at their peak.  Disclaimer: this is obviously in no way is a comparison of talent, but rather of style of play).  Hopefully, no one ends up leaving the boards over these comparisons this go-around (and for the record, I thought that the Wang / Jeremy Lin comparison was a very fair one). 

Ones that I came up with fairly easily:

Aaron Toomey -- Stephen Curry
Duncan Robinson -- Kevin Durant
Matt Hart -- Jeff Hornacek
John Swords -- Roy Hibbert
Tom Killian -- Shawn Marion
Dylan Sinnickson -- Vince Carter
Hunter Sabety -- Dwight Howard

Tougher:

Michael Mayer --   (such an unusual style of play)
Joey Kizel -- Deron Williams (has to be someone better, but another guy with an unorthodox game)
Andrew Madlinger -- Kyle Korver
Chris Hudnut -- Kevin Love

[amh63]

Odds n Ends to steal a OG style.  Read Old Guy's post and he is one step ahead me on the matter of Sabety's missed foul shot...the 2nd one...again
Thought about what would happen as the foul shot attempt was awaiting the end of the time out and the Williams players were slow in lining up for the foul shot.  Thought maybe Williams would leave the foul lane empty...a tactical one to ice the shooter more.  Even thought maybe, with 3.1 seconds to go, that Tufts wanted the miss to go to OT.  Not aware that Sabety had 4 fouls at the time.  The smartest move, imo, by Maker in OT was to drive to the basket to get Sabety out of the game with 5 fouls.  It worked as the big man held his hands to his head in despair.  Several What IFs again as in the Bowdoin games of earlier weekends.  AmStud05...I must give you rightful credit to mention this topic first in a post. 
At least the Tufts' coach did not get mad like the Syracuse Coach in the foul call that got him thrown out of the Duke game last night.  Really like the Syracuse Coach.....planning to go to his favorite hot dog place for a chance to meet him there.  Met Coach K of Duke....so will have met two coaches of the Olympic MBB team.

Heard or read somewhere that NSN could be doing the coverage for next weekend in LeFrak.  Any posters know anything about this.  The Amherst announcers were good yesterday, but the video coverage needs improving, imo.

Went over the boxes of the two Colby games.  Hudnut is a force...from the MD area....my neighborhood no less.  The player from Maine....under the noise of Bowdoin...Stewart has had two great games against Amherst.  He had 25 in the first game...from outside mainly....yet rebounds well and has more blocks than the much bigger Hudnut.
The conference will indeed be fun to watch next season with so many young front court players with great potential returning...improving.

Wish I knew when the games next weekend start.  Need to fine tune my travel planes.  Cheaper to fly in on Sat and leave on Monday...rent a car and get a room in Amherst before they are gone.