MBB: NESCAC

[P'bearfan]

What will Bowdoin do?   Keep practicing just in case they get a Pool C bid?  What have other top teams done that lose in the Quarterfinals?

Bowdoin will practice at least once this week but it's admittedly a tough situation.  It's hard to justify holding several practices especially with academic loads the players carry.  Have to think they will be "light" practices as well.

[P'bearfan]

Speaking of Bryan Hurley, not enough has been said about his courageous performance.  Just gutty, gutty play from him.  A few weeks ago it looked like he could barely move.  He is clearly not all the way back (or even close to it, really, on a few occasions you could see that his mind wanted to make plays that his body couldn't quite accommodate) but he sparked the huge Bowdoin comeback, showed a bit of his old quickness and a lot of his old savvy, and hit that enormous three to send the game to a second (or maybe the third) OT.

Couldn't agree more.  Hurley is a tough player (and a great kid off the court).  He worked his butt off to get back on the floor this year - lots of rehab and pushed his docs to let him be as aggressive as he could be.

Another overlooked fact is the job HBC Gilbride did in starting to use Hurley 8 or 9 games ago when he really looked bad.  Gilbride seemed to know that he would need Hurley in the NESCAC tournament and the only way that would happen is if he played Hurley early and let him get his legs under him (so to speak).  That was prescient. 

[gordonmann]

I've never seen a team lose in the quarters and make the tournament.

The Tufts women lost to Bowdoin in the NESCAC quarterfinals last year and made the NCAA tournament, though they were a lock for an at-large bid.  When we did our projections, Tufts was the first at-large team in.

[Old Guy]

How to explain the Bowdoin season, and its culmination? Certainly, 19-5 and 6-4 in the league is a terrific year, but the expectations a couple weeks ago were higher. A tough loss at Middlebury; 3OTs in the quarterfinals - talk about tough breaks. Everyone on this board had Bowdoin better this year, but this much better? Did we know how good Swords would actually be - and that Matthias could mitigate the loss of Hurley? I don't think so. 

1. Was Bowdoin not quite as good as it appeared when they were 12-0 or 17-1? 2. Was their schedule unbalanced, such that the meat was at the end? 3. Did they look at their place in the NESCAC, regional, and national rankings, and get vertigo? 4. all or some combination of the above?

The Polar Bears certainly have a nice group coming back. 

[fanfromct]

My take is that this year's Bowdoin team had substantially the same results as the team has had for the past 5 years. The difference this year was that they won all the games before the NESCAC season began, while in the previous five years, they lost either 2 or 3 of those games, and quite a few of those losses were by one or two points. This year they won those games, sometimes by close margins, like the Bates game.
The team's record in the league was 6-4 this year, but 5-4, 4-5, 3-6, 5-5, 5-5 the previous years. Not very different.
Their record in the last few games of the season: 4-3, 2-5, 1-5, 3-3, 2-4 and 2-4 this year. Again, not very different.
Overall records: 17-9, 13-12, 14-10, 17-8, 14-10, and this year 19-5.
The difference was not losing the close early games. Had they lost a couple of those, there would have been no expectations or Top 25 rankings, and the ending record might have been 17-7 instead of 19-5.
I don't believe that this year's team was all that different from the last few years, but a couple of close wins rather than close losses can change perceptions and certainly raise expectations.
So the answer to OG's question, I believe, is choice 1, and a bit of 2. In previous years, they played Wes and Con the last week of the season - this year, they started with them. I don't think 3 was the problem.
Agree that the returning team should be as good or better, especially if Bryan Hurley can get to 100% and John Swords continues to develop.

[Bucket]

I've never seen a team lose in the quarters and make the tournament.

The Tufts women lost to Bowdoin in the NESCAC quarterfinals last year and made the NCAA tournament, though they were a lock for an at-large bid.  When we did our projections, Tufts was the first at-large team in.

Yeah, I should have qualified. I've never seen a 4-seed lose in the quarters and then gotten a bid.

[amh63]

Bucket....thanks for the times of the games.  Will not have to speed to get to the first game from Bradley.  Maybe follow some Trinity fans up...get in their slipstream

Need to make a correction to a event in an early post.  Mention Colby last season in the tournament.  It was the quarter final game...not the semi game when Aaron torched the White Mules.  Tufts was the opponent in the semis....truly do not remember the game.  Was I in Florida?...talking to myself here.
Know the story of the Jumbo mascot...have to look up the White Mules.  Strange...the few times the Colby mascot is mentioned in posts.  Must be the short school name....same with Bates and the Bobcats.   

Is there another public regional rankings this week?   May help determine the P'Bears chances...at least get a clearer picture.

[nescac1]

Someone on the Pool C board ranked the top 20 Pool C candidates in this order, pasted below.  So Bowdoin is far from dead in the water is seems (there are 19 Pool C bids).  It seems like a large number of bubble teams have been losing games late in the season.  Of course, there will be some upsets in conference tournaments, which will knock some of these teams out as teams expected to make it via Pool A end up in Pool C.  If there are not very many upsets, however, Bowdoin might be in better shape than we think.  In New England, Bowdoin needs to root for Eastern Conn and Albertus Magnus to win their conference tourneys, Babson to beat Springfield in NEWMAC, and Amherst or Williams to win the NESCAC tourney. 

1 UW-Whitewater   
2 Williams   
3 Plattsburgh State     
4 Babson   
5 Augustana   
6 Geneseo State   
7 Virginia Wesleyan   
8 William Paterson   
9 Emory   
10 Bowdoin   
11 Wheaton (Ill.)   
12 Springfield   
13 Mary Washington   
14 St. Olaf   
15 Ohio Wesleyan     
16 Dubuque   
17 Carthage
18 Stevenson   
19 Alvernia   
20 Rutgers-Newark

[Bucket]

Someone on the Pool C board ranked the top 20 Pool C candidates in this order, pasted below.  So Bowdoin is far from dead in the water is seems (there are 19 Pool C bids).  It seems like a large number of bubble teams have been losing games late in the season.  Of course, there will be some upsets in conference tournaments, which will knock some of these teams out as teams expected to make it via Pool A end up in Pool C.  If there are not very many upsets, however, Bowdoin might be in better shape than we think.  In New England, Bowdoin needs to root for Eastern Conn and Albertus Magnus to win their conference tourneys, Babson to beat Springfield in NEWMAC, and Amherst or Williams to win the NESCAC tourney. 

1 UW-Whitewater   
2 Williams   
3 Plattsburgh State     
4 Babson   
5 Augustana   
6 Geneseo State   
7 Virginia Wesleyan   
8 William Paterson   
9 Emory   
10 Bowdoin   
11 Wheaton (Ill.)   
12 Springfield   
13 Mary Washington   
14 St. Olaf   
15 Ohio Wesleyan     
16 Dubuque   
17 Carthage
18 Stevenson   
19 Alvernia   
20 Rutgers-Newark

That list looks highly flawed to me. Does it take into account results of games this past weekend? When regional rankings come out this week, I expect Bowdoin to be down around 8-10 in the region. Granted, a few of the teams above them will grab Pool A slots--but I have a really hard time seeing them grabbing a bid unless virtually all conference tournaments result in Pool C locks winning the automatic bid and all of the bubble teams losing in at least the semi-final rounds. And I don't see Bowdoin rising in the regional rankings between this week and the final ranking; hard to justify passing active teams when you lost in the quarters.

[madzillagd]

Posted this to the crickets on the CUNY board but thought folks may be interested here as well since some watch games from other regions.  CUNY finals will be shown on ESPN3. 

http://cunyathletics.com/news/2014/2/19/MBBALL_0219140757.aspx

[NEHoopsFan99]

I think Bowdoin should be also rooting for a Babson win over Springfield in the NEWMAC semifinals, holding Springfield to 19 wins. I don't think it matters whether or not Babson or WPI wins the NEWMAC as both seem to be Pool C locks. And yes, they absolutely need Eastern and Magnus to win. I wonder if they're holding practices? Seems like an awkward position to be in.

[nescac1]

Bucket, here are the top eight in New England (no way Bowdoin falls below eight):


1. Amherst, 2. Williams, 3. Babson, 4. Eastern Conn, 5. WPI, 6. Bowdoin, 7, Springfield, 8. Albertus


I think that Amherst, Williams, Babson, and WPI are all basically in.  If there is a different Pool A (beyond those four) from either NEWMAC or NESCAC, that is a problem.  But assume those are two Pool As and two Pool Cs there.  If Eastern Conn and Albertus both win Pool As, I still think Bowdoin has a strong chance.  There are 19 Pool C bids for 8 regions, so more than two per region.  Given that it is one of the more candidate-deep regions, I think New England will get at least 3 and quite possibly 4. 

I agree that Bowdoin needs to root hard for Babson.  If Springfield loses in the first round of the NEWMAC tourney, I believe their resume is marginally weaker than Bowdoin's, although it's very close.  They would have 7 losses, with their best win (like Bowdoin's) being vs. Babson.  If Springfield beats Babson in the NEWMAC semis, I think that would definitely edge them ahead of Bowdoin, and suddenly things are looking a bit more precarious, with Bowdoin needing to hope that New England gets four Pool Cs.  If Eastern Conn or Albertus lose in conference tourneys, that would be even bigger trouble for Bowdoin.  It's too bad Bowdoin couldn't win at least one of its last two games, because I think if they had, they'd be in great shape. 

[amh63]

For Amherst fans and other posters....there is a 3-4 minute video of the Amherst vs Colby game availiable on the Amherst athletic website.   Coach Hixon's comments on his assessment of the White Mules players and several of his players play are interesting.  I did notice that FY Berman was dressed for the game, while another freshman player was in street clothes.  Did not notice Pollack on the bench.  Also interesting.

[GingerBaker]

Hixon noted Green's ability to drive!  So I'm not bonkers after all.  Glad David George had a good game - now that Pollack is out (any definitive word on his status thru the playoffs?  Or should I make my peace with losing him for the stretch?) his play will be key - I can't comment on Trinity, because I haven't seen them play, but Mayer (and this is looking ahead...) especially could be troublesome.

[toad22]

It seems to me that Amherst is a lot more vulnerable without Pollack. I haven't watched too much of Amherst, except those games against Williams. Against us, Pollack was easily the better rebounder, and a real tough guy to stop around the basket. George is, at this stage of his career, more of a finesse, shot blocker kind of player, but not a great back to the basket guy (yet). The combination of Pollack and George was very tough to play against.