MBB: NESCAC

[AmherstStudent05]

One last thought, this one on Williams.

Over the weekend, I was thinking about the comparison between this year's Williams team and last year's version and I found some things interesting.  At the outset, I must recognize of course that the book has not been finished on this year's team and there are still lots of ways this season could still unfold.

Still, looking player by player, it seems to me basically inarguable that 2014 Williams has more talent than the 2013 version.  Even leaving aside the player development we would expect from all the returning players, with all due respect to Robertson and Klemm who were very fine players, if given a choice between Williams' Class of 2017 as freshmen or their Class of 2013 as seniors, I would take 2017 every day (though it is close, Robinson is simply too good).  But then you throw in the return of HRL and it seems to be a no-brainer.

However, at least so far (and I know there is still a long way to go), I think the 2013 team was a better overall TEAM than this year's version, though this year's team is still very strong and should have a higher ceiling.  I just don't think this year's team has reached the level that last year's team showed in last year's NESCAC Tournament, where they beat a much better (relative to this year's) Midd team and gave the future national champs all they could handle in a game that came down to the final play.  Not to mention the fact that they probably should have beaten St. Thomas, the #1 team in the country.

I don't know quite what to make of all this, but basketball is a complex game and teams, for whatever reasons, are certainly more than the sums of their individual parts.

[Bucket]

However, at least so far (and I know there is still a long way to go), I think the 2013 team was a better overall TEAM than this year's version, though this year's team is still very strong and should have a higher ceiling.  I just don't think this year's team has reached the level that last year's team showed in last year's NESCAC Tournament, where they beat a much better (relative to this year's) Midd team and gave the future national champs all they could handle in a game that came down to the final play.  Not to mention the fact that they probably should have beaten St. Thomas, the #1 team in the country.

I don't know quite what to make of all this, but basketball is a complex game and teams, for whatever reasons, are certainly more than the sums of their individual parts.

I can tell you exactly what to make of this, in two words: Nate Robertson. Nate (and the same can be said for Jake Wolfin) brought so much more to the court than what can be gleaned from a stat sheet. I mean this as no disrespect to the young men trying to fill very big leadership shoes; it will come, with time. But if you are looking for a reason--and I'm not entirely sold on the fact that Williams is less of a team this year than last, but if you are--the answer is Nate Robertson.

[toad22]

I think Bucket is correct. It is very tough to replace a player like Nate Robertson. Mike Maker called him "our most important player" for three years in a row. Williams lost James Klemm as well. In the NESCAC, at least, replacing backcourts are the toughest challenge, imho.

[AmherstStudent05]

Good point about Robertson, Bucket.  Just to be clear, I was not intending to imply that this year's Williams squad is "less of a team" than last year's.  I just stated my observation that despite possessing in my view less individual talent on a player by player basis (though still plenty of talent in its own right to be sure) last year's team seemed, at least thus far, to be a more consistently formidable opponent even though by most objective measures, this year's team should be more dangerous.  Again, Williams fans would know better than I would for sure. This is just an observation that popped in my head while watching Williams this weekend.

[JustAFan]

Toad and Bucket's observations are right on the money.  There was a crucial stretch in the second half of today's game when the Ephs could have used Robertson's leadership.  Amherst was up by 5 with about 7 minutes to go and on the verge of pulling away. The Williams backcourt got caught up in the manno a manno shooting match and rather than stay in their offense and run their sets they took 3 hurried 3's in 3 consecutive trips down the court. None of them connected, and blink your eyes Amherst was up by 10+ with less than 5 to play.  It's a shame, because the Williams offense was working, but they didn't have an equivalent of Twomey at the point to make sure they had the discipline to trust it and run it.

Having said that, no one is going to beat Amherst when they are shooting 50% from 3-land, and very,very few of those shots were uncontested, so Williams needs to chalk this game up as "not meant to be". They were very competitive, and I saw a lot of good things, in particular a new (to me) emphasis in both games on the Williams guards going to the hoop and attacking the basket rather than settling for 3's. Robertson, Wohl and Rooke Lay did it especially well, with good results, and I hope they keep up this aggressive, attacking style  It gets the opponents in foul trouble, gets the Ephs in the bonus quickly and often leads to 3 point plays.

I also thought the Ephs defense was much improved, notwithstanding the results, but they continue to struggle on the defensive boards (I've long ago given up on offensive rebounds) and with Mayer gone next year this could be a real weak spot for the team unless Coach Maker has some impact big guys coming in.  But I'll worry about next year in April.  I saw a much improved Williams team this weekend, and that bodes well for the tournament.  I only wish Middlebury was able to make it as well---there is no question in my mind that they belong (WAY ahead of Springfield, and sizably ahead of WPI too, in my opinion notwithstanding what the analytics may say) but the numbers are against them and Bowdoin given all of the league tournament upsets this weekend so one of the best leagues in the country looks like it will be a two bid league this year. I will be curious to see if there are any 3 bid leagues.

[7express]

How about we get 1 more game between these 2 this year in the sectional finals??  Would anyone really be disappointed with that??

[middhoops]

How about we get 1 more game between these 2 this year in the sectional finals??  Would anyone really be disappointed with that??

Only slightly.  I'm hoping for a final match in Salem for the Ephs and LJs.

[7express]

How about we get 1 more game between these 2 this year in the sectional finals??  Would anyone really be disappointed with that??

Only slightly.  I'm hoping for a final match in Salem for the Ephs and LJs.

Touché!  That's even better then the sectional finals matchup.

[JustAFan]

Will Springfield get in and make the NEWMAC a 4-team conference (MIT, Babson, WPI and Springfield) or will they not get in but at the same time block Middlebury or Bowdoin from getting in because Springfield is ranked higher than both teams in the final regional rankings?  We don't know what those rankings say, and whether M'bury or Bowdoin snuck ahead of Springfield, but if not then I don't think any of them will get in because I don't think the NEWMAC is viewed nationally as strong enough to deserve 4 bids, and consequently S'field will not beat the other regional conference teams in the late rounds of what is to me a rather arcane way of picking tournament teams. On the other hand, if Middlebury moved ahead of Springfield in the final regional rankings--a long shot since Springfield made it to their conference finals--then I think Middlebury has an outside shot since I believe they are more competitive, and will be viewed more favorably, against the other region's teams than Springfield. 24 hours will tell....

[7express]

Sorry, but Middlebury has no chance.

The region teams that will definitely get in are Williams, Babson & Eastern Connecticut.  WPI or Springfield, whichever is ranked higher (my guess is WPI) will probably get a 4th bid.  After that it's up in the air whether Springfield gets a final bid.  If Bowdoin is in front of Springfield, they'll be a blocker for the rest of the region.  If Springfield is in front of them, they may or may not get in, but if they do, they'll be one of the last teams in the field, so whoever's next in line after that (probably Bowdoin) won't have a chance either.

[nescac1]

Agree 100 percent with everything JustAFan said -- Williams is used to outgunning teams, and Amherst had it going from three, but the Williams offense was also working really well until a series of rushed threes early in the shot clock, none of which came close to going in.  I'd chalk that stretch up to youth, but the veterans were more guilty than the young players.  As good a game as David George had defensively, when Mayer doesn't get the ball in a position to make an offensive play for several minutes, that is never a good idea for Williams.  When Williams was patient on offense, they showed they could score the ball consistently. 

In the end, 23-4 is still a pretty darn good season, and almost every team in the country would gladly take that record!  Obviously all the losses over the past few years to Amherst really hurt, but Amherst did go on to win the national championship last year, and is primed for another deep run this season. 

On Williams this year vs. last year, the teams are eerily similar -- each lost a game they should not have lost, both lost three times to a more athletic Amherst team they have trouble matching up with, and otherwise won all games.  They each beat Middlebury twice in very hotly contested games that went down to the wire.  They essentially replaced Nate Robertson, James Klemm and Sean Hoffmann with Hayden Rooke-Ley, Ryan Kilcullen and Duncan Robinson, and also added Greenman and Aronowitz to the mix. 

So how are they different?  They definitely miss Nate's ability to totally control the game from the point and break down a defense in a big moment.  But at the same time, Hayden and Greenman both turn the ball over less than Nate (while creating fewer easier opportunities for teammates, for sure), and both shoot the ball better from three, helping with spacing.  Robinson has Klemm's shooting ability but obviously can do so much more.  This year's team is definitely not quite as strong defensively and on the boards -- Kilcullen brings more offensive skill than Hoffmann, but is not his equal as a defender or a rebounder, and Nate Robertson was the best defender on last year's team and a great rebounder for a point guard, so I think his presence is actually missed FAR more on that end of the court -- Hayden is still a bit rusty hence his foul trouble all weekend, and Greenman's defense is still a work in progress.  Kalema really hurt the Ephs yesterday, just couldn't stick with him. 

I still think this is the most offensively talented Williams team I've ever seen.  In stretches they simply can't be stopped.  Despite the downgrade defensively, I think the aggregate upside of this team was and remains higher than last year's squad.  So why have they (so far) had exactly the same results?  Cohesion on both ends, and experience, is the answer in my view.  Coach Maker noted that this past week was the first week all year the entire team has practiced together.  The rotation has only recently become set (and was thrown off by all the foul trouble vs. Amherst -- the rotation vs. Midd is a more accurate reflection of what we'll see going forward).  Mayer was out or wasn't himself for basically half the season.  The same is true for Hayden.  Robinson, Wohl, Aronowitz and Epley have all missed either games, substantial practice time, or both, with injuries.  That is the entire starting five plus the seventh man.  Also, the team has relied on zone defense for maybe half the season, in large part due to guys being missing.  They went all-in (just about) on the man D this weekend, which I think was the right choice, but how can it be even close to the level it needs to be without it being the focus of practices all year?  Finally, Williams started two frosh yesterday and played a third a lot.  All three are incredibly talented players and typically don't play like first-years out there.  But still, they are young players and are going to make some mistakes now and again.  This weekend was the first time they were exposed to playoff intensity basketball.  I thought they acquitted themselves well, considering, especially of course Duncan Robinson. 

I think last year's team was playing at a marginally higher level than this year's squad entering the tournament.  But that team also had the benefit of playing zero frosh in the rotation and starting four very experienced players, and seemed to be more in sync (and also a bit more talented) defensively.  With a healthy team, with frosh who are now battle-tested in a tourney environment, with Hayden back to where he needs to be, and with a full week of practice (hopefully more than one full week) to focus in particular on the man-to-man defense, I think Williams is well-positioned for another deep run, and would only be an underdog vs. a very small handful of teams (Amherst, of course, being one of them).  Anything can happen in the post-season -- heck, last year's team BARELY escaped a first-round loss vs. Wesley in a game that was a toss-up.  But they easily could have beaten St. Thomas, as well, to make the Final Four. 

[Old Guy]

For a long time, Middlebury was the come-from-behind team. A starting backcourt of Nolan Thompson and Jake Wolfin was a nice place to start, then add Joey Kizel for three of those four years, and you felt pretty good at the end of close games. We had long discussions in the fall in the Panther lair about the impact of the loss of the three seniors, and the consensus was that the "Road to Salem" was a legitimate consideration, given the talent back, and entering.

An interesting season, some good wins, and some disappointments, and complications. Ten to twenty years ago, I couldn't imagine being ambivalent about a 17-9 year, 6-4 in NESCAC, a close semi-finals loss in the NESCAC tourney. All about expectations.

We all hope Matt St. Amour's knee surgery goes well and he can play at 100% in the future. We can see what a player Jake Brown is and will become. Bryan Jones could work into the mix - and he is an exciting player. Midd will have a dynamic backcourt. It will be fun to see what Matt Daley can do when healthy. Sinnickson! There are talented players on the bench who will work hard in the off-season to earn minutes next year.

But . . . as has been often pointed out, there will be a number of good teams - Trinity, Bowdoin, Tufts, Colby all have to be thinking about next year with optimism. Wesleyan and Bates too. And Hamilton! I don't know if any will crack the Amherst-Williams hegemony, we'll see. I suspect I will be doing some pacing in the gym next year.

I agree that Williams was a little scarier last year. Robertson was undoubtedly part of the reason, but who knows why else. Maybe Klemm was glue. Injuries. Personalities. I certainly don't know. But AmherstStudent05 is right: teams are more than the sum of their parts.

The major difference between Amherst and Williams this year is Aaron Toomey. When he brings the ball out to near-midcourt to start the offense, and then starts to the hoop, breaking his defender down, he's really tough. If you back off, he pulls up and hits a long three; if you play him tight, he will go to the hoop and finish or dish, often to Killian or Green waiting on the arc with baited breath. I've wondered why teams don't treat him more rudely at the basket in the paint, reminding him this is where the big guys hang out.

Maybe they have; I have seen Toomey play about a dozen times (including last year in Atlanta) and that's a small sample size. Perhaps I'm mistaken, but if he doesn't get muscled unduly, it's because he's slippery, and because Amherst is so good at spreading the floor in their offense, and Toomey, with space, owns the center of the court. He'll also make you pay at the line.

Killian. He has certainly played his way into post-season honors. What a game yesterday. I have the same disagreement with those who cite his tremendous improvement from last year to this that I had with the same observation about Williamson and Kalema. What improved most significantly was opportunity (24 minutes/game last year - 33 this year). Last year playing with Toomey-Workman-Williamson-Kaasila, he was a nice piece but hardly the first option. This year was, fire away, Tom, and he took full advantage. Too simple?

Miraculously, I was able to actually watch both games on Saturday, 80 minutes of video, a mixed blessing as it turned out. Hard to sit though a near-replay of the first Williams-Midd game, though I do think the Panthers played a better second half than they did in the first game at home. I have been getting kind notes of consolation from my Williams friends; I would prefer to be sending them. Still some work to be done for the Jeffs and Ephs.

Interesting that when the game was on the line against Midd, the Ephs wanted their frosh star shooting the foul shots. Midd was forced to foul Robinson. Foul the freshman, hardly the conventional thinking, though he's hardly the conventional freshman.

Amherst will certainly miss Toomey next year, though I heard on the grapevine that Kyrie Irving, with three years of college eligibility left, is considering forsaking the Cavs and taking his talents . . . to Amherst.

[Bucket]

For a long time, Middlebury was the come-from-behind team. A starting backcourt of Nolan Thompson and Jake Wolfin was a nice place to start, then add Joey Kizel for three of those four years, and you felt pretty good at the end of close games. We had long discussions in the fall in the Panther lair about the impact of the loss of the three seniors, and the consensus was that the "Road to Salem" was a legitimate consideration, given the talent back, and entering.

An interesting season, some good wins, and some disappointments, and complications. Ten to twenty years ago, I couldn't imagine being ambivalent about a 17-9 year, 6-4 in NESCAC, a close semi-finals loss in the NESCAC tourney. All about expectations.

We all hope Matt St. Amour's knee surgery goes well and he can play at 100% in the future. We can see what a player Jake Brown is and will become. Bryan Jones could work into the mix - and he is an exciting player. Midd will have a dynamic backcourt. It will be fun to see what Matt Daley can do when healthy. Sinnickson! There are talented players on the bench who will work hard in the off-season to earn minutes next year.

Don't forget Merryman. Or Brierly, who played valuable minutes--and made the most of them--every game after St. Amour went down. And to answer an earlier question about inside presence--having a healthy Matt Daley will be huge. Just witness what he did in the second half of the Tufts game against Sabety. (Or his 24 points against Alvernia in the season opener.) And I predict big things for Jake Nidenburg. As a sophomore, he was ahead of where Peter Lynch was at a similar point in his career. If he continues to progress, I think he'll be a key player in the NESCAC big men battles (and there will be plenty with the talented front courts around the league).

Ah, next year. The favorite topic as seasons end. Not for Williams or Amherst quite yet. Hope they carry the NESCAC banner far in the tournament.

Will have more to say in the coming days about the Midd seniors. As therapeutic as it is too look ahead to the next season, I don't want to miss the opportunity to give these guys a proper send off... 

[nescac1]

Bowdoin in.  Stunner!  All right!

[P'bearfan]

The Polar Bears are going dancing!!!!!

Congrats to all the players and HBC Gilbride!!