MBB: NESCAC

[madzillagd]

ESL LEÓN 2014: Gran trabajo de MIKE MAYER nombrado MVP del torneo. STEFAN TICA y AARON TOMEY en el mejor quinteto. pic.twitter.com/bAyWzmRHTC</p>&mdash; Duran International (@DuranManagement)




Founds some highlights too

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va7oHxQhwb8&list=UUMDH1agRHtqDxS22uge1HNg 

bunch of games you can link off of from that too

[WPI89]

NEWMAC schedules mostly posted.  WPI:  http://www.newmacsports.com/sports/mbkb/2014-15/schedule?teamId=ajorddp9csvk0410

At Tufts on 12/2 and looks like a game against Williams at the Salem State Holiday Tourney on 12/29!

[P'bearfan]

I'm particularly interested to see how DR's transfer impacts Williams' ability to match up with certain teams that they've handled easily in the past.

As I pointed out before, Williams is losing a lot of it's proven offensive punch and outside shooting.  Also, without Mayer, they may not be as physical or effective in the front court.  This combination could make it particularly difficult for them to deal with a team like Trinity who is very physical and prefers low scoring games.  Tufts could be another match up challenge if Palleschi and Sabety are healthy and used effectively.

[madzillagd]

Here's your Toomey highlights

http://vimeo.com/102953910

[nescac1]

Williams has plenty of capable players returning next year, but no really elite individual scorers like Robinson, Mayer, and Epley when he was on.  Other than 2012, when Wang was severely limited by injuries and Mayer had yet to come into his own, it's been a LONG time since Williams did not have a player who could take over the game offensively -- barring dramatic improvement from Wohl, Rooke-Ley, or Aronowitz in the off-season, Williams just won't have that sort of offensive player next year.  And they certainly won't be able to score 90-100 points, routinely, vs. good teams as they have been able to do over the last two years.   They do, however, have the ability to put five very capable scorers/shooters/ball-handlers on the floor together, so they should have good balance.  They will need to really play well as a team to try to replace SOME of the individual brilliance that is missing. 

I think Kevin App is going to have to emphasize defense and rebounding and physical play to a degree we haven't really seen, since, really, the peak of the Paulsen era in 2003, when the Ephs had a physical, tough, group of guys.  Williams has lived or died, primarily, on being so precise and talented and efficient on offense, that just playing solid D was enough to win games.  But solid D won't be enough and Williams is going to have to win gritty quite a bit over the next few years while the talent pool is replenished -- sort of like Midd built its program before more talent arrived.  The Ephs do have a lot of guys with the potential to be very good one-on-one defenders, and I'd like to see them pressure the ball much more aggressively as I anticipate they will have a fairly small, quick, athletic lineup, with bench players who are able to contribute far more on defense than offense.  They will need to pressure the ball a lot more than in the past because they will be at a huge disadvantage in NESCAC during half-court interior-oriented play vs. the likes of Swords, Sabety, Palleschi, George, Pollack, Hudnut and the Trinity bigs ... guys a lot less talented than that tore Williams up on the interior when Mayer was hurt last year, and with Mayer and Robinson gone the Ephs simply don't return much in the way of size or shot-blocking ability.  With Robinson gone Williams does not have a SINGLE guy over 6'5 in the sophomore or incoming frosh class.  That's a huge problem for both next year, and the future. 

The Ephs need to bring in a slew of big guys next season, ideally at least one who can start right away.  App certainly has a lot to sell: the team has received a ton of publicity after making the title game and then all the Robinson news stories, not to mention the recent Forbes ranking for Williams, and it's the rare chance to come in right away and make a major impact for the first recruiting class for a new coach in a powerhouse program ... I just hope a few 6'7-6'9 dudes with 1300 plus SAT's are paying attention! 

[toad22]

Before Duncan Robinson transferred, I thought the Williams 2014-15 team was going to be the highest scoring team in our history.I am sure that the Ephs would have run more than anyone in the NESCAC, and probably averaged at least 85 point/game. They would have played mostly, if not exclusively, zone. The top 7 players were clear. Now that Kevin App has taken over, I'm sure there will be some changes. Given the fact that App's style of play is likely to be very similar to Mike Maker's, the top players will probably remain roughly the same. I am particularly interested in how the back court operates. I guess that Mike Greenman and Hayden Rooke-Ley will start, with the backup spots wide open, with several really good players looking for time on the court. The wings will likely be Dan Wohl, and Daniel Aronowitz taking Robinson's spot. There are a couple of football players, including Darius Sime, who could back up. Ryan Kilcullen will take over at center, and given the way Williams plays, Kilcullen could easily average north of 15. He will be a really tough guy for most centers in the league to guard. We also have several guys who should be very good in a backup role. Overall, I am hopeful that Williams will be a contender for the top spot in the league again this year. The margins for error, are obviously a lot thinner. I would love to hear speculations about the other 10 teams in the league. I mostly just follow the Ephs, so I need others to talk about the rest of the teams.

[frank uible]

Williams is declaring the next three seasons as merely series of scrimmages and won't be keeping score.

[toad22]

Frank, Frank, Frank, it's not that bad.

[P'bearfan]

Before Duncan Robinson transferred, I thought the Williams 2014-15 team was going to be the highest scoring team in our history.I am sure that the Ephs would have run more than anyone in the NESCAC, and probably averaged at least 85 point/game.

Toad,

I realize the argument is moot at this point, but I've got to say I can't see how you get to this conclusion if DR had stayed. 

This past year Williams averaged 84.3 points a game with one of the country's premier centers.  The bench provided little offensive support and while I agree with your point about Kilcullen – the question remains who else will develop and provide interior scoring?  Williams was one of the weaker rebounding teams in the conference and Mayer and company accounted for >47% of the offensive rebounds ( a relative strength).  Without Mayer this number almost certainly will drop and the number of second chance shots and overall offensive output goes down.

Maybe I'm wrong and Williams would have been more productive offensively if DR stayed that I than I'm forecasting but "the highest scoring team in our history" – I just don't see that.

[P'bearfan]

                     Scoring                                                                                   Defense
                    Points For   PPG   PPG - %FT   PPG-%3FG   PPG-%2FG   Points Against     Point diff per game
Amherst            2,605        84.0   21.7%      34.1%           44.2%           2,224              12.3
Williams            2,783        84.3   21.2%      32.7%           46.1%           2,374              12.4
Middlebury    2,035        78.3   22.5%      29.3%           48.2%           1,870                6.6
Bowdoin            1,763        70.5   16.5%      30.6%           52.9%           1,455              12.3
Trinity            1,719        66.1   22.0%      23.7%           54.2%           1,597                4.7
Hamilton            1,888        75.5   18.7%      22.7%           58.6%           1,831                2.3
Tufts                    1,882        75.3   19.3%      29.0%           51.6%           1,757                5.0
Colby            1,879        75.2   19.1%      28.3%           52.7%           1,737                5.7
Wesleyan            1,639        68.3   20.3%      32.6%           47.1%           1,677               -1.6
Conn College    1,594        69.3   19.8%      35.8%           44.4%           1,682               -3.8
Bates            1,809        75.4   18.4%      28.9%           52.7%           1,694                4.8


Given all the recent posts, I thought it would be interesting to l look back at 2013-14 and make some high level observations.  The chart above compares the top line offensive and defensive stats of each NESCAC team.  A couple of things stand out right away:

-Statistically speaking Amherst and Williams were the exactly same team.  Both scored 84 ppg and had a point differential of 12+ ppg – demonstrating real strength at both ends of the floor.  Also, Amherst and Williams both scored in the same way: 21% of ppg came from the charity stripe; ~33% of ppg from behind the arc and ~45% of their points were 2 point shots.  That's an amazing similarity.

-Middlebury had similarly high offensive output  (78 ppg) and scored with pretty much the same mix as Amherst and Williams (22/29/48).  However, the Panthers were not as dominant on the defensive end with an average point differential of only 6.6ppg

-Bowdoin was a real outlier – they relied far more on defense (avg point differential of 12+ppg) while only scoring 70.5 ppg.  The P'bears mix of offense was decidedly different as well with more scoring coming from 2 pointers (53%).  This isn't surprising given the emergence of Swords as an offensive weapon.

-Tufts and Colby had overall profiles very similar to Middlebury (e.g 75 ppg on offense and a 5 – 6 ppg point differential).  Both teams relied more on interior scoring than Middlebury.

[nescacerer]

hey folks, I needed to add my two cents to this fallacy that D1 ballers are superhuman.  as a former player at Williams, in the previous century, I must dispel the view that guys from nescac couldn't make the leap to D1 on a numbers level...  sure, going to Michigan may be an anomaly, but not everybody in D1 is parker or wiggins.  not to date myself (but I am obviously), I would suggest you youngsters google matt hancock, of Colby fame.  he was at the Celtics training camp (when Bird, McHale, and Parrish were there), and made a good showing, I heard.  he is at the top of the list, but guys that I played with at Williams (yours included, and I was no all league guy), and against, at Hamilton (the two Michaels come to mind, Smith and Nelson) would have received interest.  there were others, but at the moment I can't recall, I'm getting old (whitmore, son of whitmore, who transferred from Brown to play for daddy at Colby... he was good)..... and let me end it with this, I have played against all levels of ballers from NBA to D3,  unless a guy has absolutely no athleticism, it is almost impossible to project what level he could play at if given the opportunity, and right situation.

[toad22]

Before Duncan Robinson transferred, I thought the Williams 2014-15 team was going to be the highest scoring team in our history.I am sure that the Ephs would have run more than anyone in the NESCAC, and probably averaged at least 85 point/game.

Toad,

I realize the argument is moot at this point, but I've got to say I can't see how you get to this conclusion if DR had stayed. 

P'bearfan,
Because Mike Mayer graduated, my assumption was that Coach Maker would have played what he would call a "four guard offense". Mike Greenman is a great point guard to play a completely up-tempo offense, with the wings posting up, but not the centers. They would run at every opportunity, and shoot incredible numbers of threes. The offense would be all lay ups, 3s, and foul shots. It would be a much more dynamic offense than they played last year with Mike Mayer, who was a master of the low post.

Last year was the highest scoring Williams team of all time, and my strong feeling was that they would have be even higher scoring than they were last year. They would have been a much worse rebounding team.

[madzillagd]

Agree with the style change but can't don't agree with the potential results.  I think Williams definitely should run more this year, I just think it's going to be difficult thing to do because I fear they will get killed on the boards.  Kilcullen is a great offensive player and they will do just fine on that end of the floor through much of the game.  Unfortunately though, he just doesn't have much of a presence on the defensive end and on the boards.  He gets in great position but he just isn't big enough to keep guys out of the paint or to get those 50/50 balls.  Wohl is definitely going to need to clear the boards this year and hopefully Aronowitz will be a solid rebounder as well.  However, if those guys all have to crash the boards then they can't be out on the break at the same time so they will have to me selective on how and when they run.  Hopefully Coach App has some schemes up his sleeve on how to do it effectively. 

[nescac1]

Maybe he should run some of the famous Izzo rebounding drills in full football pads .... the dual sport guys on the roster, at least, will feel right at home! 

[toad22]

I agree that Williams won't run nearly as much as they would have if Duncan had stayed around. We needed Duncan to be able to out score the other guys. The defense and rebounding was always going to be a problem.