MBB: NESCAC

[P'bearfan]

As we start the new school year, I wanted to look at the statistical impact that the graduating seniors and transfers will have on each NESCAC team.  This should give a view into each team's strengths and challenges for the coming season.

Conn College

Summary
This may be a rebuilding year for the Camels as they lost much of their offensive output from 2013-14.

Departing players
Matt Vadas
Jethro Anilus
John Bulitt
Tyrone Turner
Pat Deegan
Mason Lopez
Rob Harrigan

Offense
The departing players accounted for 48% of the minutes and almost 54% of the points scored.  Most importantly they were responsible for 73% of the 3 pt FGs and 51% of the free throws.   It looks like Bo McKinley who shot 40% from behind the arc (30-75) is likely to be the #1 long range option this season but that's a lot of production for any one player to make up.  The challenge is that McKinley doesn't appear to have much support.   Alex Hall is only other returning player to complete even 10 3-pt FGs last season and he only shot 27.1%.  The other returning players combined for a total of 21 3-pt FG attempts.  There just doesn't appear to be much fire power on the roster this season.

Rebounding
Last season Conn College averaged 36.8 rpg (7th in the conference) and the departing group was only responsible for 38% of the rebounds so I wouldn't expect a drop off here.

Ball control / steals
The departing group accounted for 44% of last year's assists – right in line with the minutes played so Conn College should be able to replace that output.  However, this group generated 55% of the steals last year.  The Camels only averaged 69 ppg last year so if a significant portion of their points were the result of steals they could struggle to score even more than expected this season.

[nescac1]

P'bearfan, I'd say that Conn has the best group of incoming frosh in NESCAC by a wide margin, albeit in one of the weaker (at least based on what's been reported so far) overall NESCAC recruiting classes in recent memory (if you include Amherst's two D1 transfers, it gets somewhat stronger, but still FAR behind last year's amazing group of incoming players).  I would not be suprised to see several frosh starting and several more in the rotation for the Camels.  Which generally isn't a good sign for the short term, but there is at least some hope on the horizon. 

Maker's philosophy as described by Toad is the one that worked so well for the Spurs the last few years.  Obviously, it helps to have incredibly skilled offensive players, like Williams did last year.  Williams has plenty of good shooters and ballhandlers returning, but no single elite scorer or offensive playmaker, barring a major step forward by Wohl who is the closest thing to that.  Assuming Coach App places a similar emphasis on cutting and three-point shooting (which given the lack of a single offensive post threat in the returning roster, he almost has to), the hope is that teamwork, ball movement, balance, and top-notch spacing can help create good looks at the basket, even in lieu of an all-American scoring threat.

[Bucket]

Interesting to see that Matt St. Amour is on the men's soccer roster for Midd this fall. Obviously, he won't be playing this season as he recovers from his ACL reconstruction, but this must be a sign that his recovery is going well enough to anticipate playing two sports a year from now.

Matt was quite a soccer player in high school—all state—and quite a baseball player, too.

[P'bearfan]

As we start a new school year, I wanted to look at the statistical impact that the graduating seniors and transfers will have on each NESCAC team.  This should give a view into each team's strengths and challenges for the coming season.

Wesleyan

Summary
Wesleyan is in a similar situation to Colby in that they are returning all their major contributors and could be poised to move up the conference ladder.  However, to do this they'll need to get the ball in the hands of their best shooters more frequently and cut down on the number of turnovers.

Departing players
Glenn Thomas
Davis Reid

Offense
Thomas and Reid only accounted for 5.4% of the total minutes and 4.5% of the total points.  However, Wesleyan only scored 68 ppg last season and they'll need more output all around next season.

The major challenge for the Cardinals is that their best shooters aren't taking enough shots from behind the arc.  Harry Rafferty accounted for 26% of the 3 pt FG attempts (132 attempts - most on the team) but he only shot 31.8%.  Meanwhile their best shooters, BJ Davis and Jack Mackey who shot 42% and 44.4% respectively, only took 81 attempts each. 

Think about that for a minute – two players who shot 11 – 13 percentage points better than Rafferty only took a total of 30 more attempts all season.  Davis and Mackey averaged 28.2 and 20.2 minutes per game respectively so they were on the floor enough – Wesleyan just needs to feed these two the ball more and have Rafferty be much more selective.

The problem really comes into focus when you realize that Weslyan's 3rd and 4th best snipers, Joe Edmonds (33.8%) and Brian Bartner (33.3%), combined for 128 attempts – 4 fewer than Rafferty.   Wesleyan simply can't generate the offense they need to win if their 5th best shooter is their #1 option from behind the arc.


Rebounding
Last season Wesleyan averaged 36.6 rpg – 8th best in the conference.  Thomas and Reid only accounted for 7% of total rebounds so no big changes are expected this year.

Ball control
Last season the Cardinals had an assist to turnover ratio of 0.86.  They will need to take better care of the ball this season if they want to increase their scoring – especially given their relative lack of outside shooting.  In particular, Rashid Epps and Joe Edmonds will need to cut down on their turnovers.  Each player committed 50 turnovers last season which led to A/TO margins of 0.36 and 0.58 respectively.  Epps and Edmonds averaged 25 – 29 minutes per game so their weak A/TO ratios had a significant impact on Wesleyan's offensive production.

[lefrakenstein]

Nice work on these P'Bear fan.

A couple of thoughts on Wesleyan - In conference play last year, Mackey actually took more threes than Rafferty (60 to 54) and the Cardinals hit more threes than their opponents (84 to 82). Players also tend to score less efficiently in general as their usage increases, so moving the ball away from Rafferty, probably their best playmaker, might not result in better shooting overall. That's especially true since Rafferty has the opportunity to improve substantially this season now that he has a year under his belt. The Rafferty/Mackey/Edmonds core could be dangerous if they get some help in the interior.

In terms of estimated wins added, Wesleyan  returns the third highest total in the conference from last season, trailing only Trinity and Bowdoin. We live in a world where Wesleyan, Trinity and Bowdoin are arguably the schools with the most returning talent coming into the season. Strange days are ahead.

[P'bearfan]

http://hoopdirt.com/blog/b89dde40/clarkson-dirt/

Per Hoopdirt, it looks like Bowdoin's ABC Linton is one of the candidates for the HBC position at his alma mater Clarkson.  He's a great guy and while we would hate to lose him this would be a terrific opportunity for him. 

As many of you know, ABC Linton was also the ABC at Clarkson under their former HBC Mark Gilbride who is the son of ABC Linton's current boss....Bowdoin's HBC Tim Gilbride. 

[Maxpreps]

Recruiting- new to forum.  Quick question- my son is a senior and did the whole AAU circut this summer.  He has received a decent amount of interest, but it has quieted down dramatically since mid august.  Is it too late to hear from any NESCAC school. Do you think they are filled up for the class of 2015?  Thanks in advance for any insight. 

[madzillagd]

Maxpreps - hard to tell without knowing the level of student/athlete vs which programs you at looking at. Typically you'll know if a coach is truly looking to land that player - for some of the NESCAC schools that may mean the coach is supporting their Early Decision app. In those cases it pretty much means if the student gets accepted, they will be a part of the team (of course there are no guarantees in D3).   Most coaches are in constant contact with their recruits these days so if they aren't routinely reaching out then you may not be on the short list.  It all comes down to who gets accepted where and which schools they choose, there is always the possibility of spots opening up later as well.

[Maxpreps]

Thank you.   One school asked for grades and test scores for a pre read and told him- stay tuned., we are considering you , but others are ahead of you.  Thanks for the response. 

[grabtherim]

Recruiting- new to forum.  Quick question- my son is a senior and did the whole AAU circut this summer.  He has received a decent amount of interest, but it has quieted down dramatically since mid august.  Is it too late to hear from any NESCAC school. Do you think they are filled up for the class of 2015?  Thanks in advance for any insight.

I appreciate your position, not an easy one to be in.  Chances are you and/or your son would already know if he is a top priority for a NESCAC coach.  Still, I don't see it as unreasonable for your son or you to reach out to any coaches or assistants you met for their thoughts.  Most are quality guys and dads themselves.  Ironically, if you get a "no response" from someone it actually is a response, albeit not the one you want.  Good luck to you and your son.       

[amh63]

Max preps...very little to add to the good advice given.  Just want to refresh your knowledge of some differences in the recruiting process among conf. Schools.   Most "recruits" are asked to submit applications during the Early Decision period.  For schools other than Amherst and Williams, there can be TWO Early Decision periods...EDI and EDIi.  The second one comes at a later date....when schools can get a better read of who may be coming.  Also, some schools do not require SAT scores and have varying selection bands...academic ones...along with different personnel needs.

[GoWesYoungMan]

Pbear - thanks for your work on the pre-season summaries and thanks to Lefrak for digging into Wesleyan"s conference specific stats. I looked further and was pleased to see Mackey, Davis, Edmonds and Rafferty all shot better than 38% from three during the conference. As far as I'm concerned all four should have the green light to take an open three. Wesleyan should be better this year and even better next as long as they keep their core together and keep developing (over 90% of their scoring and rebounding came from the freshman and sophomore classes. The problem for Wes may be that several other teams should also improve next year. Looking at the conference "on paper" the three teams recently at the top all lost significant talent and leadership. Amherst, Williams and Midd are all strong programs and have players in the pipeline to fill those roles. Meanwhile, all of the "other" teams return a significant core and should be improved--except Hamilton. That said, until Wes can win some of these games "on paper" doesn't mean much.

Max preps-- good luck to your son. Remember the NESCAC is a VERY  strong D3 league as evidenced by several players moving up to or down from D1 programs. There are many other D3 opportunities that offer excellent basketball  and academics. Keep searching.

[Maxpreps]

Thank you all for advice. One other thing we noticed was the fact that he is competing  with post grads  and kids that have re- classified. I guess it is common on the d-1 level, but starting to see it with kids trying to go to nescac schools   Anyway, he has alot of interest from different d3 schools, just not the ones he wanted. At the end , he will end up at a good academic school and play (hopefully) 

[nescac1]

Street & Smith's released its preseason top 10 for Division 3, for what it's worth.  Amherst is ranked first -- S&S cites to the two D1 transfers, in particular, to support that ranking.  I think it might be a bit premature to put this Amherst team so high after losing Toomey, Killian and Kalema, and without any seniors of note, but they certainly have accumulated ample talent, and I anticipate that by next year, they will be worthy of a number one preseason ranking and likely be the national pre-season favorite -- they just need to gather some experience playing together with so many new pieces.  Whitewater, who should be ranked first, is second.  Williams is ranked fourth, but alas, that was of course before the big Robinson transfer.   I think Williams would have easily been a top-five team with Robinson, but without, even top 25 may be a pretty substantial stretch.  No NESCAC players made pre-season all-American teams (Robinson of course is listed as a first-teamer); Connor Green received honorable mention. 

[fanfromct]

NESCAC in Action in Spain. Will Hanley and Aaron Toomey were in Fuenlabrada today for a preseason ACB game.
Aaron is on the Fuenlabrada team in the Silver league, but is on the roster for their top league team until the season begins.
A teammate of Toomey is Andy Panko, another DIII player who has done very well in Spain. He's been the league MVP and was last year's leading scorer.
http://www.gipuzkoabasket.com/upload/archivo-Estadstica-Estadstica-54148f99a5fb8.pdf