MBB: NESCAC

[toad22]

Great job, NescacFan5. Regarding Jayde Dawson, I have heard from several of my spies down in the Pioneer Valley, that the thinking of many close to the LJ program is that they have found their next Toomey. This doesn't seem fair in so many ways, but you've seen him play and feel that way.

The Williams first year that I am eager to see play is Cole Teal. I have seen him scrimmage, and in clips on the internet. My feeling is that he will end up being a great player for Williams, certainly a 1000 point scorer, and possibly the second best player Mike Maker recruited after Duncan Robinson. He should play a lot his first year, but probably not start.

[middhoops]

NescacFan5, can't wait to see your future posts.  Awesome introduction.
Glad you're here.

[P'bearfan]

NescacFan5 - welcome to the board.  Always great to have another passionate fan and your perspective will be a great addition.  Appreciate your pulling together pre-season all conference picks so early.  Great to get the discussion going.

Regarding Jayde Dawson - Since you've seen him play in HS I have no doubt that you're right about his athleticism.  Based on that, I can envision him being tough to stop in transition.   However, I think it's a too big a leap to assume he's going to be NESCAC POY this year.  In fact, I doubt that he can replace much of what Toomey did - despite the encouraging reports Toad22 mentions. 

Dawson's stats from last year are simply underwhelming  - even if you try to make a rough adjustment for differences in size and athleticism between D1 and D3 it's very difficult to see him being the best player in the conference.   

[nescacobserver]

Nescac5, I must agree with Amh63 that your credibility as an All-Conference prognosticator was a bit undermined by not even having David George on your Honorable Mention team.  Major miss - guy is a D1 talent playing in a D3 league. Would absolutely dominate on any other team besides Amherst (besides maybe Tufts, with their front line). Shows you how scary Amherst will be when you can totally leave off guys like David George and Ben Pollack, not to mention a 6'8 kid who was playing for the University of Arizona last year.  But if one of the purposes of your post was to stir a little controversy and get some good "pre-season" dialog going, you certainly achieved your objective!  BTW, what about Safford from Bates?  No Honorable Mention love for him?

[amh63]

NescacFan5's post and the comments generated has me a little conflicted.  I'm awaiting the start of 'CAC' football...starts this Sat.....yet am anxious for Homecoming...that marks the end of the season.
Why?  At homecoming, I will be able to watch a little of the BB practices and maybe talk to some other Amherst fans.  I maybe can see how the new players adjust to their teammates, etc.
I admit that I looked for particulars wrt to J. Dawson, after the recent posts.  My thoughts on possible impact of Dawson.
I think that Toad's post was a little misleading.  Another Aaron T.?  Do not think so.  Aaron mentioned that he learned how to play in HS and how to run a team in college.  Aaron with all his stats, had one key talent that he earned....leadership.  He wanted to win and did all he could to win....score, rebound, make steals, and distribute the ball where needed.  He was the PG that could score inside and outside and on the foul line.
J. Dawson's role , IMO, would be more like Kalema in his senior year.  I like the info that states that he can defend.  A scorer, yes.  There is no evidence that he is an outside scorer like Aaron T.   Amherst's team this year will find their points in many ways.  I can see Dawson's role...based on his posted talents like Allen Williamson or Killian in their senior years.  A scorer/ driver inside and in transition.
In short, a SF....not at PG.  Outside shooter...do not need it with the talent on the team and the strong possibility that the front line will carry more of the load this season.
It is a new team with new dynamics and many unknowns.  The coaching staff will have to work hard to find new leadership and build a TEAM to face a tough season ahead.
Maybe one sees why I an anxious to see for myself the players  at practice in early Nov.

[NescacFan5]

I could have very easily put George under honorable mention after his pretty impressive debut in the league last year. However, to be honest I don't see his role on the offensive end expanding much bigger. So much of what Amherst does offensively is run entirely through their guards. Yes Toomey is gone so maybe we won't see repeated ball screens on the top of the key for 35 seconds straight but despite his absence their strength this year will once again be guard play. With guys like Green and Dawson I don't envision them rolling the ball down to George and watching him go to work. Don't get me wrong, George will have a HUGE impact this year. He brings great length on defense and is an active rebounder on both ends. I don't think he has the skill set (yet) or will even have the opportunity to post consistent all league numbers on the offensive end. It's interesting, because he is without question a D1 talent but that is because what he does well (defend and stay active on both ends) translates to any level. I think he will be a two time DPOY (junior and senior year) as well as a 4 year starter and potentially two time all league player. However, I just don't see him posting impressive enough numbers this year to make the breakthrough. As for the Arizona transfer I have absolutely no idea what to expect. I left him off simply because my lack of knowledge about his abilities.

[middhoops]

Spot on assessment of George and his role in the Hixon system.  He truly will be an intimidator inside, probably the best since Andrew Locke in this league. 
Not sure what to think of Jayde Dawson yet.  His shooting numbers last year were bad and his A/TO clearly showed he was struggling.  He was playing at the lower level of D1 and not lighting it up.
I've seen more than a dozen D1 players from the America East Conference transfer to D2/3 and none have dominated.  They were all white kids 6-4 and under.
Dawson may turn out to be all you say he is, NescacFan5, but if he shows the level of superiority immediately, I'll NEVER question your prognostication power again.  Promise.

[toad22]

Regarding my comment on Dawson, I' m just reporting, I have no personal knowledge whatever. The people who told me this are very close to the program, so I am sure that there are very high hopes for him. From my perspective, another Toomey would be tough to take.

[Old Guy]

I like the way Middlebury is escaping notice in this preseason pondering. We haven't sneaked up on anyone for a while. The Panthers are very talented, a tall, good-shooting club, with a young and deep backcourt which gained valuable experience last year (Jake Brown and Bryan Jones, frosh Jack Daly). Here's hoping Matt St. Armour comes back strong after major knee surgery. Midd could use an Unseld-like big body in the paint, but certainly has enough height to match up with the talented frontcourts in the league. If things go well for the Panthers, I suspect that Brown will find himself recognized in the post-season.

It will be an exciting year in the NESCAC. With just a ten game schedule, league standings will be based on some very tight wins and losses. Middlebury was 6-4 in the league last year, third place. I am reminded that bottom-dwelling Bates last season got their only NESCAC win at Middlebury on a last second shot, and the Panthers narrowly overcame ninth and tenth place teams, Wes and CC, with a two-point OT win and a last second Sinnickson three-pointer. Midd's most decisive win was over Colby who had handled league-leader Amherst the previous week. (Word is that Sinnickson has cut his hair, so amh63 may not recognize him - or at least not do so with a Prince Valiant reference).

[P'bearfan]

I like the way Middlebury is escaping notice in this preseason pondering. We haven't sneaked up on anyone for a while. The Panthers are very talented, a tall, good-shooting club, with a young and deep backcourt which gained valuable experience last year (Jake Brown and Bryan Jones, frosh Jack Daly). Here's hoping Matt St. Armour comes back strong after major knee surgery.

Old Guy - if St Amour hadn't hurt his knee Middlebury would be at the top of my list this year.  They've lost less than any other team via graduation and transfers.   Certainly hope he is able to play both for his sake and b/c it will make the conference more competitive.

[lefrakenstein]

I like the way Middlebury is escaping notice in this preseason pondering. We haven't sneaked up on anyone for a while. The Panthers are very talented, a tall, good-shooting club, with a young and deep backcourt which gained valuable experience last year (Jake Brown and Bryan Jones, frosh Jack Daly). Here's hoping Matt St. Armour comes back strong after major knee surgery.

Old Guy - if St Amour hadn't hurt his knee Middlebury would be at the top of my list this year.  They've lost less than any other team via graduation and transfers.   Certainly hope he is able to play both for his sake and b/c it will make the conference more competitive.

Less than Bowdoin and Tufts? Joey alone is a pretty big loss. Roberts and Jensen were also solid contributors. I personally think that trio trumps Mathias/Madlinger/White for Bowdoin and certainly is a bigger loss than just Oliver Cohen for Tufts.

Then there's Trinity, which didn't graduate anyone.

[amh63]

Toad22....respect your comments....completely understood...just making a reference.  Who knows, the player may provide Toomey like contributions.   However, never like comments that start with "the next...". 
Old Guy.....Sinnickson will always be PV to me....even if he came out with a Mohawk hair style or no hair.  Now, I will recognize him for his style of play and ability.  Yes, old men can learn.

[middhoops]

Just for the record, when was the last time one player actually "replaced" a national player of the year?  I don't think anyone here is saying or expecting Aaron Toomey to be replaced anytime soon.
Or at least I'm going to be truly bummed if he is.
Not to dwell on the losses of others, but as a Middlebury partisan, seeing Toomey AND Robinson leave at the same time changes my view of the next three years. 
This is where I knock on wood before you have to tell me to, Amh63.

[P'bearfan]

Quote
I like the way Middlebury is escaping notice in this preseason pondering. We haven't sneaked up on anyone for a while. The Panthers are very talented, a tall, good-shooting club, with a young and deep backcourt which gained valuable experience last year (Jake Brown and Bryan Jones, frosh Jack Daly). Here's hoping Matt St. Armour comes back strong after major knee surgery.

Old Guy - if St Amour hadn't hurt his knee Middlebury would be at the top of my list this year.  They've lost less than any other team via graduation and transfers.   Certainly hope he is able to play both for his sake and b/c it will make the conference more competitive.

Less than Bowdoin and Tufts? Joey alone is a pretty big loss. Roberts and Jensen were also solid contributors. I personally think that trio trumps Mathias/Madlinger/White for Bowdoin and certainly is a bigger loss than just Oliver Cohen for Tufts.

Then there's Trinity, which didn't graduate anyone.

Definitely less than Bowdoin which lost >70% of their 3 point scoring - which is critical to winning in the NESCAC.

[nescac1]

I believe Tufts loses Kwame Firepong as well, who was an underrated player -- great defender and solid athlete who stepped up in big games, and shared the primary ball-handling duties with Cohen.  Tufts brings back a loaded frontcourt and has great wing scorers in Haladyna, Ferris, and Spadaford (especially if Ferris is back to 100 percent) but definitely has big questions at the primary ball-handling positions after losing two guys who filled that role for the past three years.  For the Jumbos, a lot is riding on Tarik Smith who seems like the only returning guy with point guard skills. 

In terms of losses, I think it's fair to say that no NESCAC team ever has, nor ever will, lose more in a single off-season than the Ephs did with Maker, Mayer, Robinson, and Epley (plus a few role players to boot).  Amherst is second in that department, after losing the best player in program history and two other very strong contributors who emerged as stars in their own right as seniors.  Joey Kizel was a heck of a player and Jensen also had a lot of big moments for Midd as a consumate glue guy.  Bowdoin has some big holes to fill on the wing with really only one bench guy who is an obvious candidate to step in (Hausman).  Obviously losing Hart is an enormous blow for Hamilton, and same with Vadas for Conn.  Only Colby, Wesleyan, and Trinity return basically intact rosters, so it seems likely that those are the teams poised to make big leaps forward.

As for all-conference, Swords, Sabety, George, Sinnickson, Green, Wohl and Hudnut look like the most obvious candidates heading into the season, with Swords as the leading pre-season candidate for POY.  The guys who could break in to the conversation appear to be Dawson, Jake Brown, Rooke-Ley, Safford, Epps, J. Starks, Boornazian, and Ferris. 

I see Amherst and Tufts as the favorites on paper, followed very closely by the Midd/Williams/Trinity/Colby/Bowdoin group, any of whom has a legitimate chance at the title.  Even Bates or Wesleyan could make a surprising run, although with no seniors of note Wesleyan is probably a year away from making more noise.  Only Conn and Hamilton seem to be in full-on rebuilding mode.