MBB: NESCAC

[middgal]

Long time lurker, first time poster here. Matt St. Amour is doing well, and is planning on starting the season. He has already been cleared by his doctor to play on-on one, and is definitely planning on playing this season. He practiced with the soccer team all season.  We're really looking forward to seeing him back on the court!

Back to lurking...

[amh63]

Good news indeed for Midd.  Do women at Midd.lurk?
On the subject of Matt Daly...confess I Had to remind myself of his play last season.  Recalled he had some impact games and some games he just was not effective.  He needs to become stronger when he returns,IMO.  He should be the key person up front for the Panthers....but if he remains around the 215 weight range, his quickness may not be effective against the bigger front courts in the conference.

[middhoops]

Midd has to guys with similar names this year.
Jr.  Matt Daley  and FY  Jack Daly.
The big guy gets the "e".
Hate to be the spelling police, but better to get it said now.  I apologize.

[amh63]

No apology needed...Middhoops.  Just me being lazy with names and/ or spelling.  Thought about the spelling... Never went back to verify.  Mind went to Matt's prep school..Fairfield Prep.  Wife's two first cousins attended and one of my son's roommates for three years attended.  Great ice hockey player.
Great Jesuit school that provided fine students to many  conference sport teams.

[middhoops]

Amh63, speaking of Jesuits, I have this recurring dream that the state of Vermont privatizes its state University, farms it out to the Jesuits and they bring back football!

[amh63]

MIDDHOOPS....really...what are they serving up in VT lately?  Just kidding.  Fairfield Un....used to have a football team...but dropped it.  Fairfield Prep was also known as a feeder school to its associated College/university.  My sister in law attended the university before transferring up to UMass at Amherst to specialize in Plant Pathology??.  Jesuits equals Football??  Order more associated with fine college basketball schools....not football. Gonzaga U. In Washington St is an example.  ND is sponsored/ run by another order...though one of its former Presidents was a great BB player from Wash. DC..."Monk" Malloy.

[P'bearfan]

Jesuits equals Football??  Order more associated with fine college basketball schools....not football. Gonzaga U. In Washington St is an example.  ND is sponsored/ run by another order

Well....the fans and alumni of Boston College would heartily disagree with you....though G'town, St Joe's (Philly) and Creighton are definitely basketball schools

[ronk]

 Fordham(Vince Lombardi and Pete Carlesimo) and San Francisco are other Jesuit colleges with significant football success; USF had 1 of college's outstanding teams with many Pro Football Hall of Fame members; Carlesimo(PJ's father) coached Scranton with some success but we gave it up in 1960, 2 years before I enrolled. He remained our AD until becoming director of the NIT.

[magicman]

Fordham(Vince Lombardi and Pete Carlesimo) and San Francisco are other Jesuit colleges with significant football success; USF had 1 of college's outstanding teams with many Pro Football Hall of Fame members; Carlesimo(PJ's father) coached Scranton with some success but we gave it up in 1960, 2 years before I enrolled. He remained our AD until becoming director of the NIT.

And all this time I thought you were in your late 20's to early 30's. Now that bolded stretch of your post tells me that you're probably 70 or 71 and have me by a couple of years. I've known for years you were a big Scranton fan, just thought you were a relatively recent  grad.    

[P'bearfan]

As we start a new school year, I wanted to look at the statistical impact that the graduating seniors and transfers will have on each NESCAC team.  This should give a view into each team's strengths and challenges for the coming season.

Williams

Summary 
The Eph's back court is in good shape but it is unclear how they will recover from the loss of Robinson, Mayer and HBC Maker.  First year HBC Kevin App faces the potential of less interior scoring, less efficient 3 point shooting, fewer rebounds, and fewer blocks.  While there's still talent in Williamstown there are even more questions.

Departing players:
Michael Mayer
Duncan Robinson
Matt McCreary
Taylor Epley
John Weinheimer
Greg Payton

Offense
In total the departing players accounted for 53% of the minutes but 58% of the scoring.  This group accounted for 62.8% of the 2 pt FGs, 55% of the 3 pt FGs and 54% of the free throws made by Williams last season.

Much of the focus this off-season has been on the impact losing Robinson and his outstanding long range shooting.  Last season, Robinson accounted for almost 27% of the made 3 pointers.  That's a lot of production to replace.  And because he was so accurate (45% from behind the arc) this increased Williams' points per possession.  The remaining 3 point shooters are good but without Robinson, Williams will likely be less productive offensively next season.  Also next year's opposing defenses won't have to worry about a multiple threat big man like Mayer so they may get more aggressive in pressuring the outside shooters.

While the loss of Robinson's long range scoring hurts, a potentially bigger question for Williams is: how do they replace their mid-range and interior scoring?  Of the returning forwards, Kilcullen has the most experience, is a proven scorer and at 6'-7" and 225 lb he's the biggest forward.  The challenge is that he is also a very good 3 point shooter.  However, the Ephs can't rely solely on long range shooting so it will be interesting to see what scheme first year HBC App employs and who fills which roles.


Rebounding
Last season Williams was a weak rebounding team (35.5 rpg or 10th in the conference) and the loss of Mayer will really hurt them.  Mayer alone accounted for 30% of their offensive rebounds.  Without him, Williams may get significantly fewer second chance shots. 

Ball control / steals / blocks
The departing group only accounted for 46% of the assists and 52% of the steals so Williams should be in good shape here.  But this group – i.e. mostly Mayer – accounted for 67% of the blocks.  While there are no data on how many of these blocks were converted into points, the decrease in blocks is likely to reduce Williams' efficiency on both ends of the court.

[P'bearfan]

As we start a new school year, I wanted to look at the statistical impact that the graduating seniors and transfers will have on each NESCAC team.  This should give a view into each team's strengths and challenges for the coming season.


Amherst

Summary 
Last year Amherst relied heavily on Aaron Toomey and his loss will have a major impact on both their offense and defense.  While Amherst certainly has talent, the Lord Jeffs may struggle this season (relatively speaking) as they try to replace everything he did. 

Departing players:
Aaron Toomey
Connor Gach
David Kalema
Tom Killian

Offense
In total this group accounted for 53.8% of the minutes played last season but 59% of the total points scored.  Collectively this group accounted for 47% of the 2pt FGs, 74% of the 3pt FGs, and 61% of the FTs.   Individually, it's important to highlight the impact losing Aaron Toomey – he accounted for 19.2% of 2 pt FG's; 31.7% of 3pt FG's and 33% of the FTs last season.  That means, on a relative basis, Toomey is a bigger offensive loss for Amherst than Robinson is for Williams.

Amherst seems well positioned to replace / continue its mid-range and interior scoring with players like George, Pollack, Nabatoff, and Mussachia returning.  However, it's not clear how they will replace their 3 points scoring and as we've seen that was a key element to success in the NESCAC last year. 

Connor Green is certainly the first option and he's a willing long range shooter.  However, Green shot 34.8% from behind the arc last season – which is pretty good but not great – and that's when opposing defenses had to cover up to 4 other high percentage long range shooters.  This season defenses may be able to lock down on Green more than last year unless he gets some help.   

Jeff Racy and Christien Wright are the only other returning players who even completed a 3 point shot last year.  Racy only shot 30% (3-10) and Wright shot 22% (2-9).  Diego Magana was certainly known for his 3 point shooting in high school and he will have to step up to help carry the load (he was 0-3 last season). 

Free throws are another aspect of Amherst's game that are going to take a real hit.  Last year's team shot a very respectable 75% for the season.  However, without the departing players, this average drops to 64%.   This is another statistic that highlights the impact of losing Toomey.  Last year Toomey shot 91.2% from the charity stripe – but he was the only player to shoot over 78%.  Without him Amherst may be a weak free throw shooting team and this could hurt them in close games.

Rebounding
Amherst looks to be in good shape here for next season as the departing players accounted for only 40% of total rebounds (45% of defensive rebounds and 25% of offensive rebounds).


Ball control / steals
Here are two other statistics that show the impact of losing Toomey.  The departing group – lead primarily by Toomey – accounted for 74% of the assists and 77% of the team's steals. Just removing Toomey from the line up would drop Amherst's assist to turnover ratio from a very strong 1.33 to a weak 0.77.  Toomey played over 34 min / game last year so no other PG got significant minutes and it's difficult to see anyone filling Toomey's shoes.

Additions
I don't know much about Amherst's incoming FY players and it's certainly possible that a few will get playing time and make an impact.  There has been lot's of discussion regarding the two D1 transfers:

Eric Conlin – 6'-7" 240 lb F from Arizona
Jayde Dawson – 6'–2" 185 lb combo guard from Farleigh Dickinson

I have seen brief highlight video of Eric Conlin.  He clearly brings height and bulk that will bolster Amherst in the front court.  He seems to move well and could potentially be a very good NESCAC player.  The main challenge is that he only appeared in 7 games last season for Arizona so it's not clear how much he developed last year. 

Jayde Dawson appeared in 29 games for Farleigh Dickinson, averaging 7.5 min and 2.6 points per game  - respectable stats for a freshman at a D1 program.  However, that's where the good news ends.  Based on his stats, Dawson doesn't appear to be a dominant shooter or ball handler. He only shot 32.9% from the field including 20.6% from behind the arc and he shot just 57.7% from the charity stripe.  Dawson's assist to turnover ratio was a lackluster 0.65.   I realize that he was playing against D1 competition but those numbers aren't compelling.

Many Amherst fans are excited about these two transfers and I certainly think Conlin will add depth to an already strong front court.  However, what Amherst really needs is someone to fill the sizable hole created by Toomey's graduation and it's difficult to see Dawson doing that.

[P'bearfan]

As others have mentioned I think this will be the most wide open NESCAC race in years.  Each team has some serious holes to fill and no one looks dominant.  In my view any of the top six teams could win the conference.  So with all that in mind, below are my pre-season picks:

1)  Middlebury – if middgal is correct and Matt St Amour is healthy at the beginning of the season then Midd has the fewest holes to fill and has all the pieces to win the conference

2)  Bowdoin / Colby / Tufts – on paper these three teams look to be remarkably similar.  If one of them finds a way to generate more 3 pt scoring consistently they could win the conference

5) Amherst / Williams – these two teams are mirror images of the each other.  Williams has a back court but big challenges up front; Amherst has serious questions at PG

7) Bates / Trinity / Wesleyan – All three teams bring back many of their key players (or in Trinity's case all of them).  Bates and Wesleyan should be much improved but are still young.  Trinity needs to find a way to shoot better – especially from deep.

10) Conn College – a young team that will be building for the future

11) Hamilton – they simply lost too much.



There are several match ups that should be particularly interesting:

Williams vs Trinity – Williams should have its hands full trying to stop Trinity's powerful front court but as we've seen relying on an inside game is a tough way to in this conference

Amherst vs Williams – this game is always interesting but given the differences in each team's strengths this year it should be a fascinating game

Bowdoin vs Colby / Tufts and Colby vs Tufts – very similar teams and we may see each team losing at least once in this series

[amh63]

P'Bear......thanks again for your thoughtful preview posts.  They should serve as one cornerstone for discussions ...as we enter the Winter Games.
I do noticed several areas of differences in your posts on Williams and Amherst. You note that Williams' backcourt was ok while seeing a weakness in Amherst's backcourt.  You cite the lost of Williams coaching staff and seem to give no credit to the present coaches of both schools.  I realize the new staff at Williams is somewhat unknown...but the staff at Amherst should be given a little credit.  Last season, the EPHs had to seek out a PG. This year Amherst has that problem and even Williams has to also prove it has solved that area under a possible new system with a new staff. Amherst under the long presence of Coach Hixon has rebuilt many fine backcourts...replacing one good one with another...making adjustments to the offense and defense accordingly. 
In my limited knowledge...I believe the talent returning to the PG position at Amherst is as good as the talent at Williams. Yes, Aaron is gone and we all agree he was a great one.  I am saying now that Amherst will surprise many with their new "backcourt".  There maybe even depth at the PG position.  It will not be the same PG style that Toomey displayed. 
In short...I differ from your views on the impact of coaches on the team.  Williams new staff will build a competative team with the talent on hand.  The coaching staff at Amherst will find a way to overcome the lost of the players from last season. 

[GoWesYoungMan]

P'bear, I won't take much issue with the order of your predictions (and one again thanks for the previews) because I would then be expected to provide my own. This is a year when I think predictions will take a hit. To illustrate, p'bear has  Midd first because they are the top tier team which lost the least. They finished 6-4 last year. Meanwhile, Trinity is listed as competing for the 7th spot, even though they finished 5-5 and bring everyone back. Trinity at 7th (and in fairness to p'bear he had to put someone in 7th) is good enough to win the conference. Even Bates and Wes can beat anyone on a given night though both probably need more experience to make a serious run at the top. It's going to be a crazy year.

[ronk]

Fordham(Vince Lombardi and Pete Carlesimo) and San Francisco are other Jesuit colleges with significant football success; USF had 1 of college's outstanding teams with many Pro Football Hall of Fame members; Carlesimo(PJ's father) coached Scranton with some success but we gave it up in 1960, 2 years before I enrolled. He remained our AD until becoming director of the NIT.

And all this time I thought you were in your late 20's to early 30's. Now that bolded stretch of your post tells me that you're probably 70 or 71 and have me by a couple of years. I've known for years you were a big Scranton fan, just thought you were a relatively recent  grad.

Yes, John Thompson was still playing for Providence when they came to play @ Scranton my soph year.